When the Padres first signed Jon Garland, I wrote that, “For the cost of a little more than a win, the Padres get, well, a pitcher who will produce more than a win.” I then questioned whether this was the best usage of money given the landscape of their roster. A few paragraphs later, I wrote this:

The problem is that the Padres really don’t need another back-end starter. If the season started tomorrow, they would have Chris Young, Mat Latos, Clayton Richard, and Kevin Correia guaranteed rotation slots with a whole host of arms fighting for the fifth spot including Sean Gallagher, Cesar Carrillo, Wade LeBlanc, and even Aaron Poreda. Is Garland better than those options? Probably. Is he worth $4M more to a team that doesn’t figure to have playoff aspirations? It wouldn’t seem so.

According to Baseball Prospectus, the Padres have an 82% chance at making the postseason, all but eliminating my point about their non-contender status. Clearly I was mistaken on their team’s ability, but how about Garland himself? Thus far, he’s made 22 starts, racking up more than 130 innings. His groundball rates are actually an all-time high and do not seem to be the result of stringer’s bias because his line drive rate is essentially static from last year.

The run metrics each suggest that 2010 is one of Garland’s best seasons. That his ERA is low should not be a surprise as one of the best defenses in baseball stands behind him, and they all stand within one of the more cavernous parks in the league. Equally as unsurprising is that while Garland’s home run per flyball ratio is essentially his career average the majority of those homers have come on the road.

The largest reason for deflated fielding independent pitching metrics is Garland’s increased strikeout rate. Garland is fanning six batters per nine innings pitched; that may not seem overly significant, but the last time Garland topped five strikeouts per nine innings came before The Game repped G-Unit. The biggest change in Garland’s approach seems to be the one you’d least expect. He is not getting more swings and misses overall, but he’s actually attacking the zone less often. Using our Zone% metric and dividing Garland’s Zone% by the league average, here are the returned ratios:

It’s not a significant amount less than in 2008, but it does alter the perception of Garland being someone who simply pounds the zone without hesitation or alteration. Perhaps it’s not a coincidence that Garland’s O-Swing% increased as his Zone% decreased; it might not be a shock that this season is his career best for O-Contact% either. Basically: batters are providing Garland with extra strikes outside of the zone by swinging as much as ever and missing more balls than usual.

Worth noting is that StatCorner has PETCO with a high park factor for strikeouts. Many reasons could play into this. Maybe the hitters’ eye is less than optically pleasing, or maybe the shadows are weird. Or, maybe, just maybe, hitters are more aggressive at the dish because of the run environment. All of this is conjecture, but I wouldn’t be surprised if each played a role in the factor.

Nevertheless, Garland is going to earn his money, and you know what, he might earn a little more by pitching well in the postseason.

Athletics claim Jeff Larish off waivers

In the least surprising news of the day, the A’s acquire a first baseman/designated hitter/corner outfielder type with good pop. Larish is 27 with more than 200 big league plate appearances under his belt with a .310 wOBA to show for it. His collective minor league performance is much more endearing, as he’s hit .262/.365/.458 in Triple-A with 42 homers in a little under 1,050 plate appearances.

The A’s outfield has been horrid this season; hitting a collective .263/.315/.379. The good news is that Larish doesn’t have to replicate his Triple-A numbers to provide an upgrade. In fact, his career .239/.318/.394 line would be an upgrade within itself, as unbelievable as that sounds. The absolute worst case scenario is that Larish doesn’t work out. In which case the Athletics lose out on the waiver claim fee and little else.

Rockies claim Wes Hodges off waivers

The Indians’ second round pick in the 26 draft, Hodges is pretty much a non-factor at this point. He’s almost exclusively a first baseman or designated hitter and in nearly 800 Triple-A plate appearances, he’s hit only .268/.312/.404. The only reason he’s notable is because of his draft status. Otherwise, this doesn’t seem like a move that’s going to result in too much reward barring a sudden twist in Hodges’ fortunes.

Tigers acquire Brandon Jones

Jones spent the season to date with the Pirates and here he gets shipped out for a player to be named later. Like Larish, Jones has limited major league exposure – 166 plate appearances – with limited success — .257/.313/.365 – along with a minor league record that promises of better potential — .266/.343/.405 in more than 1,200 plate appearances at the Triple-A level. Baseball America had Jones as one of the 100 best prospects in the game entering the 2008 season, and now he’ll try his luck with organization number three.

As an aside, if you’re looking for a nifty shirt that bemoans RBI usage, check out Rocco DeMaro’s SLG > RBI design. Not quite wOBA, but we all know wOBA’s too hard for the streets anyways.

Over the weekend, the Boston Red Sox designated Jeremy Hermida for assignment. The move came less than eight months after the red Sox traded Jose Alvarez and Hunter Jones to the Marlins for the non-tender candidate and just years after Hermida seemingly broke out. Oh yes, that 2007 season when the 23-year-old Hermida hit .296/.369/.501 feels like forever ago.

That season never became the ordinary. The progress never materialized as authentic. The power he showed that season – not so much the career best 18 home runs, but the 32 doubles; he would only hit 36 doubles over the next two seasons – never returned, not even as Hermida received 171 plate appearances in Fenway Park. The potential that made Hermida one of baseball’s most promising youngsters is unfulfilled. Some blame injures – Hermida has played in more than 140 games once in his big league career – while others will blame an assortment of factors.

So, here he is, freely available with the only opportunity cost being a roster spot and the remainder of his salary. For his career, he’s been a perfectly average hitter (102 wRC+) who happens to stand in a corner outfield spot and bat left-handed. Frankly, Hermida is a prolonged power surge from being Rick Ankiel. He could help a team, and while potential is not static, he’s about to enter the period in which you would suspect will hold his statistical prime.

Not that Boston is mistaken in electing to promote Ryan Kalish. Their playoff hopes are dimming and it might be time to discover which of the prospects can help in 2011. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see some team claim Hermida and give him a chance to get back on track. Then again, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Hermida go unclaimed and eventually make his way back into Boston’s good graces either.

Hermida’s story has a pale tone right now; hopefully, it shows more color soon. For baseball’s sake.

Ramon Ramirez

This is the second time Ramirez will pitch in the National League West. Previously he spent the 2006 and part of the 2007 season with the Colorado Rockies. He performed well then by FIP measures before being traded to Kansas City. The rest of the story is more mainstream as he was dealt to Boston for Coco Crisp and has since struggled to replicate that magical 2008 season. His numbers this year are actually pretty close to what they were in 2009 with the exception of an increased homer rate, hence why his xFIP is actually lower this season by nearly a half run per nine.

In exchange, the Giants give up 24 year old Daniel Turpen. He’s a relief prospect with nice numbers in Double-A. It’s safe to say this is the lesser of the outputs today by the Giants.

Javier Lopez

Here’s the marquee deal and sort of head scratcher. Lopez is a true blue side-arming left-handed specialist. Lopez’s overall numbers are nothing special this year and digging deeper he’s hade more success against righties than lefties, an abnormality in his career (his career FIP versus lefties is a full run lower). Lopez was a bargain bin pickup and not exactly something to give up talent for, yet that’s what Brian Sabean did.

Joe Martinez gets groundballs against righties and struggles versus lefties. He relies on a low-90s, high-80s fastball along with a curve and change. He’s only made 13 appearances in his major league career and six came as a starter. He seems likely to head to the bullpen where his upside could be a right-handed specialist.

That deal alone probably favors the Pirates. Somehow, Neal Huntington also grabbed John Bowker in the deal. Bowker isn’t particularly valuable – he’s a 26 year old first baseman with 513 career plate appearances and a .294 wOBA – but there’s something intriguing about his seemingly newfound ability to reach base. Over the last two seasons in Triple-A (more than 600 plate appearances) Bowker has walked 97 times and struck out 101 times. Before that, Bowker had struck out 370 times while walking 136 times.

He’s a little older and maybe he never becomes anything but a tease. Still, as a throw-in the Pirates could do worse. The question is where he’ll play on the major league team with Garret Jones, Lastings Milledge, Jeff Clement, and eventually Ryan Doumit splitting time in right field and first base. Then again, having a ton of potentially useful options is a new thing for Pittsburgh.

The Giants didn’t drastically overpay in either case, it just seems like a case of tunnel vision in the Lopez deal.

Nobody expected the Pittsburgh Pirates to be buyers at the deadline, but here we are. Today the Pirates finalized a deal to acquire Chris Snyder (and minor league shortstop Pedro Ciriaco) from Arizona for Ryan Church, Bobby Crosby, and D.J. Carrasco.

The Pirates already have Ryan Doumit under contract through next season (with two club option years thereafter) which makes Snyder an interesting acquisition on the major league level alone. Throw in Tony Sanchez in High-A and the Pirates have the makings of a catcher surplus. Why take on Snyder, though, when the team isn’t competing now nor later? Because look at the cost it took to acquire him.

Crosby and Church are both over 30 years of age and have a combined wOBA of .511. Carrasco is the best player going the other way and he’s a middle reliever. In return, the Pirates get a catcher who hits around league average. That’s an asset. The word right now is that Pittsburgh will not move Snyder, and Doumit will play some first base and right field while splitting catcher duties. That doesn’t mean a deal will not happen at some point before the 2011 season begins, and if one does happen the Pirates (presumably) will not have the same sense of urgency to dump without bringing back costs as the Diamondbacks currently do which (should) suggest a better return closer to Snyder’s market value.

You can take some tinfoil and tape it to a cardboard box but that doesn’t raise the value. That is essentially what the Pirates did, and then they dealt that cardboard box for a television. I know nothing about Ciracio but I don’t think he’s a negative value unless he somehow leads to the destruction of the entire Pirates’ minor league system.

The aftermath of this deal won’t be felt for a while. The initial impact, though, makes it hard to blame Pittsburgh for taking advantage of a sweet opportunity.

Brian Cashman was not done after agreeing to a trade for Lance Berkman. Hours later, he went out and grabbed Cleveland Indians’ outfielder Austin Kearns for a player to be named later or cash. This trade isn’t as sexy as the one for Berkman, but is it as practical or just a busybody maneuver?

The Yankees have used Marcus Thames as their right-handed hitting backup corner outfielder. The key word there is hitting because while Thames’ defense is undesirable, his offense mostly makes up for it. His wOBA this season is .364 through more than 100 plate appearances. That’s good, but his line is propped up by a .369 BABIP that seems wholly unsustainable given what we know about Thames.

Kearns is the better fielder but the lesser hitter. Even against lefties, Thames has held the advantage recently and for their careers:

2010: Thames .373 (64 PA) | Kearns .315 (112 PA)
2009: Thames .345 (124 PA)| Kearns .287 (66 PA)
2008: Thames .369 (135 PA| Kearns .240 (99 PA)
Career: Thames .361 (755 PA)| Kearns .353 (1,021 PA)

It’s a false dichotomy to say the Yankees must decide between Thames and Kearns. Given their roster’s switch-hitting capabilities, they can afford to send down Juan Miranda and Colln Curtis and keep Kearns and Thames with Berkman arriving too. Maybe they choose against that route and simply like Kearns more than Thames. Whatever the Yankees decide to do shouldn’t change the opinion on this deal too much. They get a potentially useful player off the bench for the stretch run without giving up anything of great value.

Last Saturday night, the Houston Astros hosted the Cincinnati Reds. They lost by seven runs and failed to score. When they take the field tomorrow the players will be a week older and the season a week closer to ending, but that is true of all teams. What makes the Astros’ week so special is the all but guaranteed absence of their most well known players. Roy Oswalt started that game, and so did Lance Berkman. Now, it appears, neither will be a member of the only organization they have known. Oswalt is the Phillies’ newest addition and making his debut tonight; Berkman is on the verge of heading to the Yankees.

Reportedly, the return in the Berkman deal is minor with the Astros essentially dumping his salary while giving him the chance to participate in a pennant race. For their part this week, the Astros will walk away with Brett Wallace, J.A. Happ, Jonathan Villar, whatever may come from the Yankees and without Oswalt, Berkman, and the $11 million sent to Philadelphia. Their payroll sat at more than $90 million entering this season and now the Astros appear ready to shed the following contracts:

– $10 million of Roy Oswalt
– $2 million buyout of Lance Berkman
– $5.5 million of Kazuo Matsui
– $4.5 million of Pedro Feliz
– $3 million of Brian Moehler
– $1.5 million of Geoff Blum
– $0.8 million of Jason Michaels

Some players will be signed and others given raises, but that’s nearly $30 million off the books for a team that should have a low payroll based on the lacuna of elite talent. You can debate the quality of the returns and question whether Drayton McLane is setting this franchise back even further by meddling into Ed Wade’s responsibilities. Those are legitimate concerns. What is worth pointing out is that there was never going to be a panacea. Never a magic bullet. The term “salary dump” has an ugly connotation but sometimes salary dumps are legitimately fruitful moves; especially when applied to erase mistakes.

Berkman and Oswalt are fine players and put in commendable service with Houston during the glory years. On this team, though, on this 2010 team their salaries and presences were nothing shy of onuses. By having those two, McLane forced himself and his management alike into thinking they were fringe contenders when they were nothing of the sort. Some ill-timed hot streaks catapulted the Astros into a state of naivety on their own limitations.

This is painful for Astros fans and it may only get worse. The team has lost its face in one brisk swoop. A deck sealer company used to rain commercials about a torture test. That is exactly what McLane is about to endure. Can he exercise better judgment and see this process through or will he venture for a scapegoat and keep his franchise locked in the jaws of mediocrity. This is the first cut; more will come because more have to come.

As for what’s next; the most obvious question is whether McLane will put the team up for sale. Beyond that, the Astros should try like heaven to move hell – Lee’s contract – even if it means engulfing the disaster for next season in order to free up cash for 2012. Wade is by no means a great General Manager, but one has to feel sympathy for him. He’s performing with the sword of Damocles overhead.

Note: And moments later Buster Olney tweets that the Astros are picking up a lot of money owed to Berkman. So much for a salary dump.

The gates that opened for Chris Davis once Justin Smoak arrived in Seattle are once more closed today as the Texas Rangers have acquire Jorge Cantu for two minor league arms. Davis himself really can’t complain. He hit .188/.265/.267 in his 113 plate appearances this season. Nobody believes that represents his true talent level, but the Rangers are in the midst of a division chase. One that just saw Dan Haren join the other side of the fray.

So, the Rangers turn to Cantu. He’s hitting .259/.308/.408 this season and his projected line is .265/.320/.420. He’s not Adrian Gonzalez or even Travis Hafner, but in the short-run – which in this case is the next two months – he should be an improvement over what they had. Now given that we have about 40% of the season left and some wild things can happen in smaller sample sizes, there’s a chance Cantu has an abysmal period and misses that projected mean entirely.

The good – well, sort of good – news for the Rangers is that he would have to be pretty awful to match their first base production to date. Smoak, Davis, and the occasional appearance by Joaquin Arias and Ryan Garko have combined to hit .197/.296/.315 this season. OPS is hardly the best statistic for judging offensive production, but you could knock .100 points off Cantu’s current OPS and he’d still out produce the Rangers’ first base group.

The other good news is that the Ballpark in Arlington is as hitter friendly as they come. Cantu has a limited history of big first seasons with teams which is probably just a coincidence but could be construed as a sign that he might struggle with focus. He’s got the chance to reach the playoffs for the first time in his professional career and he will also reach free agency after this season. Motivation should be no thing; instead, it should be everything within him.

Don’t make the mistake of crowning Cantu as a savant, though. He is not mystically aware or knowing. He will not be reciting epics on playoff plane trips because of his own doings. The Rangers will continue to ride and die with their pitching, defense, and more relevant batters. He is simply a moderate upgrade for a probable playoff team. Nothing more or less.

(And please note that I am assuming Cantu will not play second base in Ian Kinsler’s absence. He has not played that position since 2007.)

Roy Halladay pitches in an inexorable manner. Hell bent to record as many outs in as few pitches as mathematically possible. The possibility of Halladay topping 250 innings for the second time in his career is becoming a distinct reality in a rapid manner. After last night’s complete game – marking Halladay’s eighth on the season (his career high is nine) – the Doc is at 171 innings through 22 games started with a 2.21 ERA and a FIP around 2.80.

After going through Halladay’s first 22 starts in each of the past four seasons (as well as the 2003 season in which he topped 250 innings) I found that Halladay is actually outpitching himself. No, really. His 171 innings represents a six inning increase over his previous high through 22 starts which came last season. That 2.21 ERA is a half run per nine innings superior to his previous best (again, last season. Add that his FIP is still better than 2008, if only by about a tenth of a run and, well, Philadelphia is getting everything they could have hoped for and even more.

When Halladay is on the mound opposing teams cross the plate less often than a starving atheist; in 16 of his 22 starts Halladay has allowed two or fewer runs. Somehow, the Phillies are only 13-9 in his starts. That is almost a 60% win rate and certainly more enjoyable and respectable than the 17-16 record posted by the Royals in Zack Greinke starts last season. Still, it seems that the Phillies should be winning more often because Halladay isn’t just ERA padding with five-to-six inning outings, but consistently going deep and locking the other team down.

Winning only 60% instead of 65% of Halladay’s starts won’t cost the Phillies a playoff spot or anything – they’re still very much in the East race as well as the Wild Card race despite injuries galore – but it sure did damper any talk about 30 wins. With only 10-12 starts remaining, he may not even reach 20.

Do you know who started last night at second base for the Detroit Tigers? How about third? Shortstop? The answers to those questions (in order) are: Will Rhymes, Scott Sizemore, and Ramon Santiago. The answer to one of those questions starting soon will be Jhonny Peralta as the Tigers have acquired him from the Cleveland Indians for lefty pitcher Giovanni Soto.

Peralta is due less than $2 million the rest of the season and has a $7 million club option for next season with a quarter of a million dollar buyout. Cleveland moved the 28 year old to third base in 2009 and used him there exclusively this season. He will ostensibly remain there for a lack of options, such as returning to shortstop; if the proof is in the pudding then Peralta has devoured any evidence that he can still handle the six-hole.

The bigger concern for Detroit will be how his bat plays. Between 2005 and 2008, Peralta recorded one season of below average offensive production. He has yet to top a .310 wOBA in the season and a half since. The most glaring concern with Peralta’s offensive game is his increased reliance upon flyballs. You know how this goes by now, but a refresher on the rule of thumb is that more flyballs lead to more home runs while also leading to a lower BABIP. The opposite is true for the formerly groundball heavy Peralta.

ZiPS projects Peralta to post a .323 wOBA from here on out. That projection may seem optimistic but should prove to be an improvement over Scott Sizemore or Don Kelly. Or at least an option with a presumed lower standard deviation between ceiling and floor. Nobody will confuse risk minimization as a sexy science anytime soon; sometimes it’s just a necessary for teams hoping to stay in the race.

The most humorous aspect of this deal is how Detroit continued talking down the idea of a short-term rental only to turn around and (presumably) grab a short-term rental. It is hard to see them paying Peralta $7 million next season unless he really knocks their socks off.