Let’s get this out of the way: On paper, this deal appears to be a victory for the Jays.

Yunel Escobar is 27 years old. He has three years of team control remaining. He contributed 10 wins in his first three seasons. He’s a good player and he may only get better. In exchange, the Braves acquire Alex Gonzalez and two players who did not make the Jays’ top 10 prospects list per Marc Hulet, but have some interesting upside — particularly Tim Collins, a short lefty with ridiculous strikeout rates (in Double-A) and a funky delivery to boot. The Jays also receive Jo-Jo Reyes, who, while he’s no prized pig, would’ve been in the majors with most teams that lack Atlanta’s pitching surplus.

On to the cream of the deal: Escobar is only available for such a return because the Braves lost faith in him. Not his playing abilities, mind you, but his makeup and work ethic. The tumultuous relationship between Escobar and manager Bobby Cox is no secret and when Atlanta loses faith in you, then it’s only a matter of time before they ship you out. Just ask Marcus Giles.

The Braves are smart enough to realize this deal isn’t a slam dunk by any means. They also meddle in sabermetrics enough to realize that Escobar’s offensive struggles aren’t completely a loss in skill. His batting average on balls in play is .270 (versus a career mark of .316) and while that .291 wOBA is disgusting, he’s still walking at a career-best clip (over 12%) while maintaining a static strikeout rate. The most concerning thing about Escobar’s skill set from a performance standpoint is his vanishing power. That speaks to what they think of Escobar’s makeup. Ostensibly, Toronto’s scouts watched Escobar a few times in the recent weeks and talked with enough people around him to get the impression he’s manageable.

The Jays are banking that Escobar will respond to this move with a newfound passion and fire or that a continued apathy will still bank results, no matter how nuts he drives whoever manages the Jays after Cito Gaston’s retirement. In some ways, this is similar to the Edwin Encarnacion deal, only Escobar’s track record is about a million times better than Encarnacion’s ever was.

It’s been a whirlwind eight months for Jays’ general manager Alex Anthopoulos. He lost their previous starting shortstop, Marco Scutaro, to Boston, and replaced him with Boston’s old shortstop, Gonzalez, only to send him packing three-fourths of a year later for a younger player at the same position with recent history (and likely the future) on his side. Even if this deal doesn’t entirely work out in the Jays’ favor, and Escobar bombs out of the league before reaching free agency, this has to be looked upon as a pretty worthwhile risk for the Jays, who haven’t had a consistent shortstop for ages.

Twitter giveback week continues. This time it’s Evan Lynch wanting to see a breakdown of what separates the 2006 Detroit Tigers and 2008 Tampa Bay Rays turnaround from a franchise in perpetual downtime: the Pittsburgh Pirates since 1993.

There are so many different ways to attack the following comparison. Here’s the best breakdown I could come up with. In formula form: young talent + asset assessment = talent evaluation. Let’s take a look at the changes for the 2006 Tigers and the 2008  Tampa Bay Rays in particular.
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Part two of the Twitter giveback. This time Fausto Carmona’s trade value, as requested by Joseph Regan.

The Indians are cozy with trade deadline deals involving top of the rotation starters. In 2008 they traded CC Sabathia to the Milwaukee Brewers for a package that included Matt LaPorta and Michael Brantley. Last year they traded Cliff Lee for Jason Donald, Carlos Carrasco, Jason Knapp, and Lou Marson. This year, Jake Westbrook seems like the odds-on favorite to find a new home, but Carmona could be on the move as well.

Carmona is 26 years old and won’t turn 27 until early December. In 2007 he entered his first full season in the major leagues and performed exceptionally; completing 215 innings with a 3.88 xFIP and a groundball rate over 64%. He was worth approximately four wins that season and Indians’ general manager Mark Shapiro quickly jumped on an extension the following April. The deal Carmona inked guaranteed four years and $15 million, but held three additional club options worth $28 million.

In the two subsequent seasons Carmona tallied 246 innings while walking more batters (140) than he struck out (137). He missed more than 50 games between late May and July in 2008 with a hip injury. In 2009 he was optioned to the minors for seven starts. In his return he struck out 43 and walked 29 as opposed to the 36 strikeouts and 41 walks he granted prior to the demotion.

That improved control has rolled over into this season. To date he’s posting his best strikeout-to-walk ratio since that faithful 2007 season and it’s not particularly close. His FIP is an impressive 4.08 and he’s projected to finish in the 4.40-4.45 range. Given his youth, potential upside, and a contract that calls for relative underpayment, it’s easy to see why teams would be interested in adding Carmona.

Getting an exact feel for Carmona’s trade value is hard because his contract is something unlike we’ve seen traded in recent memory. When the Diamondbacks acquired Dan Haren in December 2007 he had three years and roughly $17 million left on his deal. Arizona tore that up eight months later, replacing it with a four year deal worth nearly $45 million and a club option. It’s not a great comparison, because Haren had three consecutive 200+ inning seasons with at least 4 WAR, and Carmona’s prospects are far sketchier. Nevertheless, the full return for Haren: Chris Carter, Brett Anderson, Aaron Cunningham, Dana Eveland, Carlos Gonzalez, and Greg Smith. It’s safe to say Carmona is unlikely to command that size (in quantity at least) of a return.

Tim Hudson was another Athletic traded in the midst of a great extension. In August of 2000 the A’s inked him to a four year deal worth $9 million with a club option for the 2005 season valued at $6 million. In December 2004 Hudson was moved to Atlanta where he eventually signed a four year $47 million extension with another option tacked on raising the total worth to $59 million. Like Haren, Hudson had a stretch of consistent dominance that Carmona doesn’t come near. From 1999 through 2004 Hudson posted two sub-4 WAR seasons; those were his first two seasons and he combined for 7.5 WAR. The return on Hudson was a comparatively muted package of Juan Cruz, Dan Meyer, and Charles Thomas. That looks awful now, but Meyer as a top 50 prospect according to Baseball America before the 2005 season began and was ranked top 100 the year before.

It doesn’t appear we’ve had a deal with a knockout contract like Carmona’s moved during the season in recent times. Further, when we have had these type of deals, the player usually brings more consistency and less volatility than Carmona. That’s not to say he’s less valuable or anything, it’s just hard to get a feel on whether his troubles are really behind him, or if he can collapse again at any moment.

Back to the question at hand: what is Carmona’s trade value. This is all going to seem like much ado about nothing, but my answer would have to be that it depends entirely on what you represent as Carmona’s true talent level. If the answer is above average with the chance to get better, then hey, those aforementioned packages aren’t too far off with that contract in hand. If it’s an enigma who puts together one good season for every two mediocre seasons, then something of lesser quality is the answer.

Note: It’s the midseason, which means things are a little slow. As a result, I’ve taken this opportunity to try and give back to the readers by doing content requests on Twitter. This one comes from Zach Sanders, who actually writes for RotoGraphs and is quite smart and good on his own. He wants some Travis Ishikawa coverage and although he’s probably more qualified to do it than me, here goes nothing.

Buster Posey appeared to be the big winner when the San Francisco Giants traded Bengie Molina on July 1. Posey’s season debut came on May 29 and yet between those two dates he recorded exactly two starts behind the dish in something like 40 games. Posey is starting almost every day now, but so is his replacement at first base: Travis Ishikawa.

Okay, to be fair, it wasn’t just Molina’s departure that opened the spot for Ishikawa. Aaron Rowand’s ineffectiveness has allowed Bruce Bochy to play Andres Torres in centerfield occasionally alongside the Giants’ little blue pills (older players who are still usable, and not just for nostalgia purposes) in Pat Burrell and Aubrey Huff. The 26-year-old lefty who hit nine home runs for the Giants in 2009 has clenched the job with ever-yearning, inferno-drenched palms.

In 71 plate appearances Ishikawa has hit two homers, while drastically reducing his strikeout rate, and he’s flashing the isolated power that made him a reasonable first base option after the 2008 season. Perhaps the most impressive aspect of Ishikawa’s performance is that it comes without playing in the minor leagues this season. He missed time with two partially torn ligaments in his big toe and, while playing time has been mostly sparse, he’s made the most of it.

It’s hard to say what to expect moving forward. In Triple-A Ishikawa hit .310/.370/.737 in nearly 50 games, and in Double-A he hit .247/.333/.396 while being mostly young for the league. He’s been a mixed bag. One who shows pop and the potential to be a pretty nifty player, but also one who probably hits the ball on the ground too much for his skill set to ever truly flourish. He’s always been noted as a plus defender which helps his case, but he’s not much for hitting left-handers, which suggests his roof might be in a platoon capacity. Which I guess puts him in this family:

The Rays very well may be in possession of the best bullpen in the American League, as their collective 3.45 FIP ranks third overall and first in the AL, just ahead of the White Sox’ staff. Despite being in mid-July, the Rays have only made one roster move for their pitching staff all season, an early season demotion of Mike Ekstrom and promotion of Joaquin Benoit. Otherwise, the entire unit that opened the season is still intact. But maybe not for too much longer.

Joaquin Benoit has a 1.60 FIP and a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 10. A minor league signing in the winter, Benoit has exceeded any reasonable projections. Jonah Keri has called him the “embodiment of the Extra 2%,” which just so happens to be the name of his forthcoming book on the Rays. Benoit barely edges Grant Balfour (2.32) and Rafael Soriano (2.88)). LOOGY Randy Choate and ROOGY Dan Wheeler have been similarly good. In fact, only one pitcher in the Rays’ pen has an xFIP over 4.4, that being Lance Cormier, who has seemingly lost his once impeccable control.

So why might this group not be around for much longer? Because each and every one of them can reach the free agency market at season’s end with the exception of Andy Sonnanstine. Soriano and Benoit signed one year deals; Balfour and Choate will qualify for free agency of the non-released variety for the first time in their respective careers; Cormier very well could be a non-tender candidate at this rate; and the Rays hold a club option on Wheeler worth $4 million with a buyout worth $1 million.

With the Rays shedding something like $40 million in payroll, ostensibly a few will return. Benoit could return to the team willing to give him a chance and potentially close, setting himself up for a bigger payday in the near future. Choate has an ERA over 6 despite pitching well for the most part. Wheeler has become something of a mainstay in the Rays’ pen and is the son-in-law of Rays’ announcer Dewayne Staats. And so on. Soriano seems like the least likely to return, but who knows if the Rays can somehow win the World Series.

In their place the Rays could simply keep everything in-house during a down year. With rotation spots hard to come by the Rays have plenty of arms to throw into the relief corps. Something like this, perhaps:

LR: Sonnanstine
MR: Heath Rollins
MR: Aneury Rodriguez
MR: Dale Thayer
SU: Alex Torres
SU: Jake McGee
CP: J.P. Howell

There’s also Ricky Orta and Matt Bush lying around who could find their way onto the scene. That may not be a surefire recipe for success, but in a year in which there will be a ton of roster turnover, the bullpen seems to be no exception.

The Cubs are all but out of the race and should be selling heading into the deadline. Ted Lilly is a 34 year old southpaw who will soon reach free agency. His contract calls for something like $6 million to be paid from now on out. In the midst of posting his worst fielding independent pitching numbers since his 2004-2006 days as a member of the Toronto Blue Jays, the Cubs face an interesting dilemma.

Eddie Bajek’s replication of the Elias Rankings have Lilly qualifying for Type-A status; meaning if the Cubs were to offer arbitration to Lilly, and he were to decline (hence testing free agency), they would receive two draft picks with location depending on 1) the signing team’s record among the league, and 2) the signing team’s other moves. Type-A status carries with it a projected value of $5 million thanks to those draft picks, which suggests Lilly all but pays for himself with that compensation ranking.

The problem is that Lilly isn’t guaranteed Type-A status. Bajek has done yeoman’s work and his rankings suggest that Lilly is only a borderline Type-A. The rankings weigh stats like wins, win percentage, and ERA, three things Lilly doesn’t have going for him, particularly the wins metric. You see, as Joe Posnanski pointed out here, to qualify for a win the pitcher needs to exit with the lead, which is a problem when your team never scores while you’re in the game, and that’s the case for Lilly.

Among all qualified starting pitchers Lilly has the lowest run support at a tick more than 2.40. Only three other starters have RS/9 less than 3; those being Dallas Braden (2.59), Roy Oswalt (2.70), and Felipe Paulino (2.93). (For those curious, the flipside includes Phil Hughes (8.29), Nick Blackburn (7.14), and Kevin Correia (6.73).) Lilly’s ERA sits at 4.08, suggesting that he’s not going to be able to win many games and he’s going to lose a fair share. Naturally, Lilly is 3-8 after 15 starts. In his three other seasons with the Cubs he took the loss 8, 9, and 9 times. He’s going to blow those totals away this year at this pace.

The discrepancy seems unlikely to change since the Cubs will soon shift from surrounding Lilly with their 24 other players who present the best collective chance at victory to the other 24 players who have a future in Chicago with value to the Cubs being higher than value to the rest of the league. Presumably the teams have a better grasp on the rankings game than we do, so if Lilly’s moved, don’t be shocked. If he’s kept, don’t be too shocked either.

Over my years attempting to analyze this game I’ve come to accept that changing a player’s skill set is tedious if not bordering on the line of insanity. Players who come up through high school, college, and the minors swinging at pitches located outside the strike zone will probably continue to do so once they settle into the majors. If they’ve reached the majors with that approach and a good load of success, then it’ll probably work to varying degree.

There are, however, exceptions: if a batter is constantly bewildered by anything that isn’t a fastball then, yeah, there could be issues for him sticking in the majors. Or if a batter has a hole in swing the size of Arizona, then, yes, he’s probably not long for the bigs. But instead of wishing Carl Crawford would take on the patience of Ben Zobrist at the plate, I’ve come to accept his approach for what it is. I love watching Matt Joyce and John Jaso take close pitch after close pitch just off the plate or just highenough or just lowenough with such confidence in their recognition and discipline. But I’m also cool watching Crawford swing at a pitch half a foot above the zone and knock it through the middle on a line. My tolerance has grown, I guess you could say.

But in spite of that, I don’t get Yuniesky Betancourt at all. Betancourt is hitting .258/.282/.381 (not far off his career .273/.297/.389 line) and it’s not just the results that leave me with a blank expression, but his approach too. Tom Tango has written a few times that the great equalizer for horrible batters is to take as many pitches as possible and (presumably) draw walks or at least get a mistake pitch. Betancourt is a pretty horrible batter and he has been for years now. You couldn’t tell by his approach though, which, as best as I can tell, is to swing as much as possible at pitches that he designates as good pitches before the pitcher delivers.

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When Major League Baseball suspended Manny Ramirez for 50 games last season, his replacement was Juan Pierre. The slap-hitting and fleet-footed faux Frenchman with a supposed heart of gold started each of the 50 games in left field during Ramirez’s absence and performed well by his standards as he batted .318/.381/.411. Pierre’s performance became overrated in the Los Angeles media market, as some suggested he was the Dodgers’ savior. In reality he actually posted a negative WPA during that stretch; which, while not wholly indicative of his overall play, offers that he wasn’t racking up contextually important hits on a consistent basis.

Pierre is now a regular for the White Sox and — just a week after the one year anniversary of Ramirez’s return to the lineup – Ramirez is once more absent from the lineup. This time it’s a sore hamstring. Ramirez hasn’t played since last Wednesday and the Dodgers have attempted to replace Ramirez by using a triumvirate of players. Playing the role of Caesar has been Garret Anderson, who actually shared a cottage with Julius back in the day. He’s not very good anymore whatsoever. Through 138 plate appearances his OPS (.477) is almost lower than his career slugging percentage (.462).

Xavier Paul, 25, has received the second most plate appearances out of left and Reed Johnson even got a start too. Their combined performances just don’t compare to Manny and hardly encroach on Pierreian levels of competence. Anderson and Paul have reached base five times in 32 plate appearances over the stretch. For his part, Johnson has done much better; reaching base eight times in 25 plate appearances, although he’s generally entered as a substitute or switched over while playing center or right field.

Ramirez should return moderately soon – he’s due to begin a rehab assignment in a matter of days – but his suspension and injury have exposed an interesting issue. Anderson and Johnson make a combined salary just under $1.5 million (Paul makes the minimum); neither are too high quality of reserves and surely the Dodgers could’ve added someone like, say, Eric Hinske at that same price and be rewarded with better play (Hinske can’t play center, but then again, neither can Anderson). The question, though, is whether any quality reserve would want to sign with a team like the Dodgers. After all, the playing time behind Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, and Ramirez is bound to be sparse at best and in no way were the Dodgers guaranteed the division, so joining them for a shot at a ring isn’t as promising as some other squads either.

Anderson (and maybe Johnson too) really had no choice because no rebuilding team is going to sign them to start and few contending teams would sign them to be the main reserve when playing time could be ample. The dynamic in which non-elite free agents weigh money, playing opportunity, and championship aspirations is sometimes buried. It’s certainly not as highly considered as the major free agents who mostly have free reign over their destination.

Not to say that the Dodgers were inherently handcuffed by the formula, but it’s something to think about and certain to provide more entertainment than another Anderson plate appearance ending in an out.

The Angels are once again making like their namesake and defying natural laws. Looking over the names that have taken plate appearances for Los Angeles of Anaheim over the past month is a bewildering experience when combined with their above .500 record and second place rank. Let’s take a look at a few of the most random cameos on the 2010 Angels.

Michael Ryan

The last time Ryan appeared in a major league game prior to this season was 2005 with the Twins. He was teammates with Torii Hunter then, too. Of course he was also teammates with Dustan Mohr, Bobby Kielty, Lew Ford, and Jason Tyner at various points. Truthfully, he wasn’t good then (.265/.313/.408 over 285 plate appearances) and he’s not good now (.205/.220/.308 over 41 plate appearances). Ryan spent the first few weeks of the season in the minors with the Angels Triple-A team, hitting .331/.383/.500 after multiple seasons bouncing from Triple-A team to Triple-A team. He really doesn’t belong in the majors.

Kevin Frandsen

This one isn’t too surprising. Frandsen always seemed destined to be shunned by the Giants and when the Red Sox acquired him in March the collective droves of Fransend supporters responded by tilting their neck, puffing their cheeks, and sounding “mmmmmhmm”. Four weeks later the Angels plucked Frandsen off waivers. He’s been decent for the Angels given his cost; so far a below average UZR but above average hitting in a little over 100 plate appearances while walking more than he has struck out.

Paul McAnulty

Another former National League West player who went through Boston’s clutches before joining the Angels. If you love short and delightfully plump outfielders who bat left-handed and walk while striking out quite a bit and not hitting for a ton of power in their major league stint, then McAnulty is your man.

Cory Aldridge

This is the ultimate “Huh?” play. Aldridge debuted with the Braves in 2001 as a 22 year old. He played in eight games, recording five plate appearances and zero hits with four strikeouts. The Braves didn’t call him back up in 2002 or in 2003. In 2004 he left the Braves for the Royals. He didn’t appear in a game for the Royals in 2005. No such luck in 2006 with the White Sox or Mets, either. He lost his phone in 2007. Things got complicated in 2008 when he returned to Kansas City. And in 2009 he decided to move out to the west coast where, hey, he finally got the call. In two games, he has recorded six at-bats, zero hits, zero walks, and a strikeout. Someone let Aldridge get a hit so he doesn’t have to play until he’s 40 to get another shot.

Reggie Willits

This one isn’t so much a shock as a reminder. Willits is essentially the baseball version of rapper Chingy. Broke onto the scene hot with one good skill and then was completely forgotten as soon as the next catchy tune came along. Willits of course debuted in 2006 as a gritty reserve outfielder with a ridiculous ability to grind out walks. He couldn’t hit for power and despite his speed he wasn’t an overly good defender. Still, he was a switch-hitter and when he received more than 500 plate appearances in 2007 it became apparent that he fit the Angels way – mostly because every announcer would mention his specialty. Since 2008 began Willits has barely received 300 plate appearances, hitting .214/.310/.245 with eight extra base hits and eight stolen bases. Safe to say, Willits didn’t hit the jackpot after all.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have used 21 different pitchers this season. That doesn’t lead the National League – the Marlins and Diamondbacks at 22 apiece do – but it is above the National League average, and tied with the Nationals. It seems the Pirates will be adding at least one more name to their list in the coming days, though, as today they traded cash to the Padres for the rights to Sean Gallagher.

Gallagher has been around the block a few times now. Just two years ago he was part of the package that lead to the acquisition of Rich Harden. At the time, Gallagher was 22 years old and in nearly 60 innings for Chicago had a 4.12 FIP and 4.40 xFIP. Despite lacking a top-end fastball or a great outpitch, Gallagher looked to be a decent bet heading forward as a cheap mid-to-back of the rotation starter in the typical Athletics’ mold. As time has since revealed, not only did that prophecy fail to come to fruition but Gallagher would be sent to the Padres as part of the first Scott Hairston deal.

Now, if one had to choose two ballparks that a starting pitcher with so-so stuff and a career 35.7% groundball rate would pitch in for the most optimal results, odds are the ballparks in Oakland and San Diego would make the list along with maybe Safeco Field. Yet, Gallagher never found that level of success he had in 2008. In 2009 he only appeared in the majors for a brief time and looked pretty poor, and in 2010 he’s spent 23 innings in the majors while posting a 5.85 xFIP.

So here he is. Joining his fourth organization since 2008 and in yet another pitcher’s park; it’s an odd story because Gallagher has only amassed 173 innings in the majors. He’s only 24. He held pretty decent upper minor league numbers and he wouldn’t be the first young pitcher to experience some growing pains. At the end of the day, he’s a righty without supreme status stuff and with a high reliance on flyballs and a strong strikeout to walk ratio. The margin for error is small, and yet if any team can afford to take a chance on Gallagher and see if something – anything really – can be milked out of an arm, why not Pittsburgh right now?

It may not be pretty, but it doesn’t have to be when the alternative is Brian Burres.