If Felipe Lopez earns the maximum payout on his 2010 player contract, he will earn roughly $2.2M from the Cardinals. Lopez was worth nearly 5 wins last season and roughly 3 wins in the three seasons prior to that. Alex Cora has 5.9 WAR since 2002 and he will earn at least $2M next season with the chance to earn $3M with certain incentives, or vest a 2011 option worth an additional $2M.

Besides the fact that life just isn’t fair at time, a few other factors played into Lopez’ pay being lower than Cora’s – even beyond Omar Minaya’s indiscretion in re-signing Cora instead of waiting out the middle-infielder market. Lopez carries with him questionable makeup that removed a few potential suitors and he’s coming off a career season in which he’s highly unlikely to repeat.

The Cardinals’ depth chart up the middle features Brendan Ryan (currently nursing a wrist injury), Julio Lugo, Skip Schumaker, Tyler Green, and minor league invitee Ruben Gotay. Assuming Schumaker can also fill the role of reserve outfielder, there’s a pretty good chance three of those players make the opening day roster with Lopez, with the clear advantages being held in that order. This gives the Cardinals some pretty nice depth, and also allows for an alternative at third base if David Freese is to slip up.

The finances of this deal are excellent for the Cardinals. If he never steps on the field, it’s a sunk cost at the price of a middle reliever. If he plays well, the most he can earn is the price of … well, a slightly better middle reliever. It’s a fail-safe commitment and one that comes on a wildly varying performer. Check his wOBA and plate appearance totals over the last three seasons:

2007: 671 PA, .295 wOBA
2008: 532 PA, .320 wOBA
2009: 680 PA, .356 wOBA

What he’ll do next season is anyone’s guess. CHONE and Marcel combine for a .326 average, which would be more than enough to justify this deal and would essentially equal his career total.

Good job by the opportunistic Cardinals.

Before Rickie Weeks’ season ended prematurely thanks to a wrist injury, he was enjoying the makings of a career season. He’d hit nine home runs in roughly 150 at-bats while his previous career high of 16 came in 409. His .245 ISO would’ve easily been a career high and his .365 wOBA could’ve tied his previous career high if it remained static throughout the year. Lost, though, is something else about Weeks’ game.

Drafted second overall in the 2003 draft out of Southern University, Weeks’ career has been a bit frustrating, if superior to that Delmon Young fellow. Injuries have allowed Weeks to record more than 500 plate appearances exactly twice. His career .344 wOBA is fine for a second baseman (or anyone really), and when he has been able to stay on the field, he’s posted WAR of 3.3 and 2.1.

So what was ignored? His defensive play over the last few seasons.

Weeks posted a combined UZR score of -22.5 through 2006 (which covers 1,652.3 innings), yet has a 0.5 UZR since (in 2,343.7 innings). The issues mostly stemmed from horrendous error rates, since his range and double-play ability scores out as roughly average throughout his career. Weeks’ throwing appears improved, although maybe Prince Fielder is more graceful than he seems.

There’s improvement here, but do not, under any circumstances, buy into Weeks’ 21.9 UZR/150 as gospel. Besides the fact that 300 innings is an extremely small sample size, note that Weeks’ RngR in 2009 was uncharacteristically good. That means, if you’re placing money or life on Weeks’ UZR range, then gamble on something like -5 < x < 5 runs. Hopefully for Weeks, the wrist injury doesn’t linger and he can get back to where he left off.

Jonny Gomes is good at three things that could be considered employable skills in the baseball world. The first skill being that he crushes left-handed pitching. Klaasen covered this a few weeks back, but Gomes has an expected wOBA against lefties of .354. That’s above average, mind you, however Gomes is a right-handed batter and a poor defender in the corner outfield spots. That combination of skills is readily available throughout the minor leagues. Gomes can play a role on a big league club. That’s for sure. He can also be replaced, which is too bad, because his story is pretty fantastic.

First some background. Gomes is 29-years-old and from a smallish town in California. His younger brother, Joey Gomes, was actually drafted by the Rays, the same team that drafted Jonny years before. At last check, the younger Gomes was playing for the Newark Bears or something. The older Gomes was an 18th round pick in 2001 and quickly rose through the system by mashing baseballs. He launched 30 bombs as a 21-year-old in the hitter friendly California League, then moved on to Double-A where he hit 17 homers as a 22-year-old. In 552 at-bats at Triple-A Durham, split between 2004 and 2005, Gomes homered 40 times. That’s power.

He made cameos for the (then) Devil Rays, but saw fewer than 30 at-bats in 2003 and 2004. Gomes arrived with a sudden impact in 2005; hitting 21 homers and with assistance from a wickedly high BABIP (.352) posted a batting average above .280. He came back the next year and hit 20 home runs in nearly the same number of at-bats. Then he hit 17 home runs in 2007 with exactly the same number of at-bats as 2005. In 2008 he played a smaller role and even spent some time in Triple-A. And similarly split last season between the minors and majors, but found nearly 300 at-bats with the Reds and … of course, hit 20 home runs.

Jonny Gomes can hit home runs. He’s hit 155 split between the majors and minors since Christmas Eve 2002. Why is that date important? Because that’s when Gomes suffered a heart attack. Being the professional baseball player he is, Gomes ignored the symptoms and continued going about his business. He literally slept through a heart attack before passing out and being rushed to the hospital. Somehow he survived and featured enough heart function to play professional baseball and play the role of the gritty hustler.

That’s the other part about Gomes’ employable baseball skills. He’s evidently a great person to be around. During the Rays’ run in 2008, Gomes started the Mohawk haircut and gained popularity (albeit short-lived) for attempting to give Shelly Duncan a few cuts of an entirely different kind. Even before that, Gomes’ reputation as a maniac in the clubhouse is well-known.

The Rays were horrible in 2007, with Gomes contributing a replacement level performance of his own, yet this didn’t stop him from trying to reverse the tide. So, what did he do? What any insane man would do: He bought a plastic rooster. Not only that, he named the rooster ‘Cocky’ and made the entire team personnel rub the rooster before taking the field. Then, during high-leveraged moments, he would sneak into the clubhouse and bring the rooster to the dugout. Unfortunately, Gomes left Cocky somewhere in Camden Yards after an excessive losing streak. Gomes also took part in the Rays’ “Wrestling Night” promotion, wore a customized robe around the clubhouse sent to him by a former teammate, and took a few sips of champagne from Dioner Navarro’s protective cup following one of those magical nights in 2008.

Yes, he’s that hardcore.

None of this makes Gomes’ any more valuable though. If he were a worthwhile player all these antics could be celebrated with sepia-toned fondness and a celebratory tone. Instead I feel compelled to mention that he’s probably not going to repeat last year. His BABIP was a tick above career rates, his walks were down, his strikeouts static, and his HR/FB well above. Even if you’re generous about Gomes in the Great American Ballpark, a .370 wOBA is quite optimistic. CHONE and Marcel have him closer to .340, which seems fair. Even if you bump that expectation up a few points for various reasons (N.L., playing in the field full-time, and maybe being used in a platoon, etc.) there’s still a good gap to make up for and one that leaves Gomes as a marginal player on a good team.

And that really is too bad, because Gomes’ third skill is that of photogenic mastery.

And now for the National League’s forgotten five.

C Gregg Zaun Brewers

2010 marks Zaun’s 16th season in the majors. Baseball Prospectus once tagged him as the ideal back-up catcher and I think that’s apt. Zaun has recorded more than 500 plate appearances once in those 15 seasons, more than 400 once, more than 300 five times, and more than 200 nine times. That from someone with a career on-base percentage of .344 while catching. True, his throwing arm is morbid, much like his Rush fascination, but isn’t it a bit unjust that Brad Ausmus has 14 seasons with at least 300 plate appearances while being a one-dimensional catcher, while Zaun is similar in the depth of his skills and yet he’ll be lucky to finish with half of that?

The Brew Crew faithful will witness a transition from Jason Kendall to Zaun at a similar price to Rod Barajas’ deal with the Mets. Zaun is drawing Social Security, and catchers generally don’t age well, so there is some risk placed with overreliance on the 39-year-old. Still, Zombie Zaun (Zaunbie, if you will) can outhit Jason Kendall.

2B Akinori Iwamura Pirates

The beginning of Iwamura’s American career was fascinating. When he signed with the Rays, the stories about his constantly altering hair color, frat boy like insistence on necklaces, Phallus-worshipping hometown, and appetite for cigarettes popped up like no other. Then he arrived to spring training with sunglasses that featured a built-in MP3 player, an alligator-skinned glove, and green circled bats. He hit something like .100/.200/.100 in spring and everyone fretted over what quickly became water under the bridge since Iwamura recorded a hit in each of his first nine regular season games and reached base in the first 12.

Since then he’s posted wOBA of .338, .323, and .338. His simplistic game and consistent nature make him a dependable asset. He’s not going to awe often, although his footwork in the field is stellar and makes up for the fact that his range and arm lack a bit, and his ability to turn a double play is impressive given that 2010 will only be his third season at second base. The Pirates received Iwamura for a middle reliever who quickly turned into Rafael Soriano. He’s a free agent at year’s end and who knows whether he ends the year playing his home games at PNC Park, but he’s a quality player at a bargain price.

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Exhibition games are near, thus ending the never-ending off- and on-season cycles. Remembering every transaction with the potential to make a difference this year is impossible. With that in mind, here’s a rundown of fun facts for five moves within the American League that may have slipped your mind. Why five? Because arbitrary numbers are fun. As is alliteration.

SP Kevin Millwood, Orioles

Millwood is in the final year of his five-year, $60M contract signed way back near the end of December 2005. Incredibly, he could still be receiving money, a $15M signing bonus, from this contract through 2015. The irritating thing about Millwood is not his 6’4” frame, the all-business goatee, or even the two l’s in his last name. No, it’s that seasons of poor ERA overshadow his quality of pitching. According to ERA, his five best seasons are 1999, 2005, 2002, 2009, and 2003. His five worst are 2007, 2008, 2004, 2000, and 2006. Here are the FIP of those seasons:

1999: 3.53
2005: 3.73
2002: 3.29
2009: 4.80
2003: 3.59
Average FIP: ~3.83
Average ERA: 3.29

2007: 4.55
2008: 4.02
2004: 3.80
2000: 4.06
2006: 3.87
Average FIP: ~4.02
Average ERA: 4.82

Millwood did pitch better in those five seasons with solid ERA, but not a run and a half per nine. Odds are, Millwood is underrated by the masses, perhaps looked upon as an underachiever, since his career is a mixture of ERA successes and ERA failures. The great irony in this paragraph is that Millwood’s 2009 looks pretty solid by ERA, but is actually the second worst of his career when ranked by FIP. All of this to say this: The Orioles acquired Millwood for a marginal reliever with an injury history and a Rule 5 pick. Even with the salary, the Orioles appear to win out.

DH Nick Johnson, Yankees

Johnson makes for great writing fodder. Besides the fact the he’s reunited with the guy who the Yankees traded him for in 2003, there’s also the fact that he’s never been an All-Star. That’s not important for our line of player evaluation, but here are the Yankees’ primary designated hitters by season since 1990 and the number of All-Star appearances made throughout their careers.

2008-9: Hideki Matsui (2)
2005-7, 2002-3: Jason Giambi (5)
2004, 1995-6: Ruben Sierra (4)
2001: David Justice (3)
2000: Shane Spencer
1999: Chili Davis (3)
1998: Darryl Strawberry (8)
1997: Cecil Fielder (3)
1993-4: Danny Tartabull (1)
1991-2: Kevin Maas
1990: Mel Hall/Steve Balboni

That’s right. Since 1990, the Yankees have had a combined four seasons from designated hitters who never qualified for an All-Star game. Johnson figures to be the fifth, barring injury that leads to Randy Winn (to steal a phrase from Rob Neyer) hitting designatedly for most of the season.

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Those familiar with this site probably know who Graham MacAree is. If not, his dossier reads something like this:

– Inventor of tRA (and subsequently tERA)
– Writes at Lookout Landing
– Uses diction like he salutes the Union Jack while singing along to God Save the Queen

It’s time to add another bullet to that list. Graham is now playing the role of the ice cream man and giving us a different flavor of sabermetric goodness on a daily basis over at LL. The complete archive of the aptly named Sabermetrics 101 feature can be found here, with the most recent post covering financial and roster constraints. The work is top-notch as the posts aren’t too detailed or long, but provide enough information and knowledge to understand what the heck the topic means.

Graham’s series isn’t the only primer set in town, though. My former colleague – and one of the new sabermetrics-orientated writers whose future I’m geeked about – Steve Slowinski rolled out the Sabermetric Library. This is the link to Slowinski’s introduction of the site and here is a direct link to the Library. Basically, any stat from this site that you can think of has a page with details, links, and even some illustrations through tables.

I’d also recommend Alex Remington’s fantastic series on Big League Stew and Michael Jong’s series of posts, too. Purple Row has also featured some excellent primers and just recently this meta-primer on wOBA popped up throughout the land. Appreciate the work put forth by these folks. Not just for our purposes, but for the next baseball fan yearning to take a dip into the sabermetrics’ side of the pool but with no concept of where to begin.

When it comes to analyzing general managers, there’s a large degree of deferment. The intimate knowledge necessary to fully evaluate their job lacks when it comes to budgetary limits, and the input offered by their scouting and information staffs is largely unknown. Similar to cases where pitching or hitting coaches are removed, we have to defer to the organization and trust that something in their teachings and instruction simply didn’t work, even if those complaints fail to show in statistics.

Even with some degree of deferment, the Ed Wade extension is hard to grasp. Ignore the slight losing record in Wade’s two full seasons at the helm. There are cases where a losing record for a period is unavoidable and not the kiss of death. Take, for instance, Andrew Friedman’s 127-197 record through his first two seasons. Under Friedman’s watch, the Rays continued to develop their farm system while acquiring and nurturing youth and potentially useful role players alike. Wade hasn’t done that.

The questions extend beyond the record. Wade has avoided signing questionable long-term deals for the most part. It’s far too early to attempt and judge his draft classes, though the Astros’ farm system had little room to decrease in quality. His major moves have mostly been through trades, the most notable of which occurred in a short span of 2007, which saw Wade trading Brad Lidge and Eric Bruntlett for Michael Bourn, Geoff Geary, and Mike Constanzo; sending Constanzo, Matt Albers, Troy Patton, Dennis Sarfate, and Luke Scott to Baltimore for Miguel Tejada; then turning Chris Burke, Juan Gutierrez, and Chad Qualls into Jose Valverde.

A few non-descript moves have worked out along the way, too, like trading Chad Reineke for a few months worth of Randy Wolf, then trading Matt Cusick for LaTroy Hawkins. Those moves could be useful on a talented team, but the problem is that Houston has an identity crisis. Trading for middle relievers and rentals on mid-rotation starters when you aren’t really in the position to compete for the playoffs seems like a misuse of time and resources. They’re in a rut where they can float around .500 and occasionally sniff out a season like 2008, but anything more is unlikely.

The Astros’ payroll is incredibly top heavy. Carlos Lee still has three years and $55M left on his contract, yet he turns 34 years old in late June. Roy Oswalt is Houston’s property through 2012, but he no longer appears to be an ace. Lance Berkman is the only other player making more than $6M on the roster and he qualifies for free agency after next year. After that trio, the Astros payroll is split into a few million dollar chunks here and there. Bright spots like Wandy Rodriguez and Hunter Pence are nearing their pay days too.

That leaves little flexibility moving forward and when met with a weak farm system, the odds of Houston becoming a worthwhile contender during Wade’s tenure are slim to none. Add in that the team could evidently be in the process of being sold, and really, this entire thing makes no sense. I don’t know what Drayton McLane is doing and frankly deferring to him scares me.

Amusing quote from Buster Olney’s column yesterday:

“We’d love to have a bona fide No. 5 starter,” said Colletti.

Olney frames this quote in response to Colletti listing a handful of names that qualify as unknowns, has-beens, or never-will-be types. Why is this amusing? Because, a bona fide number five starter generally fits into one of those categories. Matthew did some work on rotation slots in reality by tRA in late 2008. He found that number five starters were something like 24% below league average. Dave Cameron chimed in below in the comments section and it’s worth a read, if only for some constructive thinking. Matthew surmises the number five starter in his piece as such:

TO BE PERFECTLY CLEAR: By this definition, a #5 starter is probably not what most people term a #5 starter. I assume that when most people talk about a #5 starter, they talk about some mythical rotation that almost never misses a start and this person being the worst pitcher on it. For the most part, those rotations do not happen. A #5 as defined below represents the combined worst starters to have actually pitched. In my opinion, this is the more useful definition, because this way, having health is properly weighted and you get a notion for the level of scarcity that exists.

By this definition, the Dodgers do have a bona fide number five starter already. Even last year, the Dodger pitcher who made the fifth most starts was Eric Stults. He started 10 times and had a 5.54 xFIP. The list of alley cats Olney provides includes Charlie Haeger (profiled on this very site multiple times), James McDonald, Ramon and Russ Ortiz, and even Josh Towers amongst others. Frankly, I had no idea a few of those guys were still pitching baseballs. McDonald, though, is an interesting option.

McDonald has made nearly 90 starts in the minors, including 42 between Triple- and Double-A. At both destinations McDonald struck out at least nine per nine and walked between three and four batters per nine. He turned 25 in October and started last season in the Dodgers’ rotation. He would only make four starts, as he walked 14 in 13.1 innings and struck out only six. Upon a move to the bullpen, McDonald looked like his minor league self, posting a SO/BB of 2.4 and striking out roughly one batter pr inning.

His stuff doesn’t seem to stink, either: a low-90s fastball, curve, and change. Each pitch was whiffed on at least 8% of the time. His fastball shows great “rise” which makes up for some lackadaisical run. Those whiff rates will likely decrease upon a move back to the rotation, but McDonald’s body of work makes him more appealing than the Ortizes of the world. Plus, who knows, maybe he turns into more than a bona fide number five.

The Rays’ owner, Stuart Sternberg, made some waves earlier this week by announcing payroll would be reduced next season. This information came as a surprise to some, despite being pretty obvious based on the Rays’ current contract outlooks.

As of this writing, the six highest paid players on the Rays are:

Carlos Pena $10.1M
Carl Crawford $10M
Pat Burrell $9M
Rafael Soriano $7.5M
Jason Bartlett $4M
Dan Wheeler $4M

A resounding five of those players (everyone but Bartlett) will reach free agency at season’s end. Assuming no extensions or trades occur before November, that’s roughly $40M off the books. Throw in Gabe Kapler and Grant Balfour’s combined $3M and the Rays have more than half of their 2010 $70M payroll coming off the books.

Assume the Rays see some aggressive pay raises through arbitration and they would still have to take on something like $30M in 2011 salary to be near this year’s tab. Take the Yankees’ and Red Sox’s off-seasons as a testament to how much money that really is. The super-rich Yankees added Javier Vazquez ($11.5M), Curtis Granderson ($5.5M), Nick Johnson ($5.5M), and Randy Winn ($1.1M) which totals less than $25M. The super-aggressive Red Sox added John Lackey ($18M), Adrian Beltre ($9M), Jeremy Hermida ($3.3M), Bill Hall (~$1M), Mike Cameron ($7.3M), and Marco Scutaro ($5M) for a total of nearly $44M. Take Lackey’s salary out of the equation, though, and they added about $26M in 2010 salaries.

Of course it’s asinine to try and project a team’s lineup a few weeks from now, to attempt and project all the changes and especially with such mass departure over 12 months away is pointless. In a general sense, the free agent class will feature some attractive options like Cliff Lee, Joe Mauer, and the guy who would turn all the Tampa-based Yankees’ fans into Rays’ fans for a few days, Derek Jeter, but it’s just hard to see the Rays spending and acquiring so much salary within a single off-season.

So yeah, the Rays’ payroll is probably going to be reduced in 2011. The sun will probably rise tomorrow morning too.

Salary data from Cot’s.

The Giants’ off-season resembles M.C. Escher’s Relativity lithograph. There’s a ton of steps spread out all over the place, each distorted by perspective, and a history dating back to 1953. Freddy Sanchez, Mark DeRosa, Aubrey Huff, Juan Uribe, and Bengie Molina were all added on the positional player side, although three of those players were more of the re-signing variety.

The most notable trait amongst the signings is the flexibility. Huff and Molina withstanding, the rest can play multiple positions. That’s a nice thing to have. Especially if Edgar Renteria bombs again, or injuries start stacking up, or they move Buster Posey to first base while batting him eighth and blocking Nate Schierholtz by playing Huff in right and … uh, never mind that last one. It’s not just flexibility either, the Giants have seemingly upgraded their lineup with these moves.

Admittedly, the offense still looks a bit uninspiring. CHONE projects DeRosa (.335) and Huff (.334) to be slightly above league average and Sanchez slightly below (.318). If those three perform like that and were somehow warped to the 2009 Giants, then they would rank third, fourth, and seventh in wOBA amongst batters with at least 300 plate appearances. Assuming Uribe’s luck on balls in play didn’t make the trip back in time with him, those three would likely fare even better.

That analysis is incomplete because it ignores defense. Huff has played about 2,600 innings at first base throughout his career and has a -4 UZR/150 to show for it. He spent nearly 900 innings there last year (-2.3 UZR) which was more than the amount he played there since 2005. Sanchez is a solid defender. DeRosa, meanwhile, has looked pretty good in the corner outfield over the years.

DeRosa (or Uribe) could always slide in at second base if Sanchez is reinjured. That would leave Fred Lewis in left field. That’s better than how things were last season and that should be encouraging. Plus there’s the Posey card. The talk about him playing an infield position is a bit concerning if it means moving him away from the backstop before he ever gets the opportunity. It’s absolutely damning if such a move is made because Bruce Bochy doesn’t buy into Posey’s game-calling. Write your congressman if this happens.

Perhaps the most frustrating part about this team is the stars. Tim Lincecum and Pablo Sandoval are lovable, enjoyable players. They also play on the west coast with the Barry Bonds-less Giants. That means no added exposure through home run watches or national games. The eastern part of the country should know how good these guys are, but they won’t get to experience it unless they make the post-season. They’ll have a fighting chance at making the playoffs, but it’s easier to see this team finishing in fourth than second.

For now, though, the Giants have options, and that’s progress.