This move is flabbergasting.

Ignore, for a moment, that the Giants essentially gave away Scott Barnes. Brian Sabean acquired Ryan Garko in late July. Up until that point, he was hitting .285/.362/.464 with 11 homers and a .361 wOBA in 273 plate appearances. With the Giants, he would experience some legitimate struggles, batting .235/.307/.330 with two homers in 127 plate appearances. That’s a bad spell for anyone, but this is a 28-year-old who batted .283/.353/.480 in the American League over his last three seasons. Odds are, Garko will rebound towards his career numbers more so than his career Giants numbers.

This move comes down to two things. Either Sabean and company have absolutely no plan to speak of, or this was their plan all along: shipping off their ninth best prospect – a left-handed starting pitcher with an impressive performance in a hitter-friendly league – for what amounts to a month of plate appearances. I’m not sure which should terrify Giants fans more, but I’m leaning towards the latter. At least the promise of no plan is exciting and leads to unpredictably and spontaneous bouts of anger. That beats the heck out of a constant dull roar of anger because your favorite team’s front office considers long-term potential for extremely short-term gains an equal trade.

What may be the worst part about this – and mind you, that’s saying a lot – is the Giants are probably going to sign a free agent first baseman now. Maybe they’ll lock onto Jim Thome or Carlos Delgado – the jokes about Sabean’s obsession with old players would write themselves – but it’ll probably be someone like Adam LaRoche. Why Adam LaRoche? Because getting marginal upgrades like this when it costs you one of your top 10 prospects and millions more is exactly the type of move that caps this massacre of foresightedness with one violent stroke:

Ed Wade and Dayton Moore need to be on notice. Sabean’s not letting you take that crown of most silly off-season move without a fight.

Boston is strapped for roster spots but has a packs of cash. Texas has a need for the latter in the worst way. Naturally both teams have come together and helped each other out by agreeing to swap Mike Lowell and Max Ramirez.

Boston has the hots for Adrian Beltre and in the pursuit of a happy clubhouse, ship Lowell away, so that ego flares and cliques never have the chance to form over whom should be the starting third baseman in the light of leadership and loyalty (see the case of Varitek 2009 in how that could be an issue). Lowell turns 36 soon, and even while battling injury issues, he’s been extremely solid with the bat. One still needs to regress his wOBA moving forward and adjust for the fact that he’s moving out of Doubles Central – not that Arlington is a no long fly zone either – but if Lowell is restricted to mostly DH work then lower that projected total even more. Assuming he plays, he should be at worst a league average hitter, and the Rangers are apparently getting him at a greatly reduced rate for one season.

To do so, they give up catcher Maximiliano Ramirez, who struggled this season with wrist injuries. He recently turned 25 and there are questions about his defense. Still, in the past the guy has hit, hit, and hit some more. He’s struggled in Triple-A because of this year, but his career Double-A line is .354/.450/.646 in 289 plate appearances. In high-A he had a .923 OPS through 480 plate appearances. Keep in mind he’s playing in some pretty hitter-friendly parks, but with George Kottaras elsewhere and the Green Monster still standing in left, Ramirez could prove to be a nifty player for Boston and after evidently finding himself out of the mix in Texas despite their catcher situation looking a bit murky.

There are some issues with Ramirez and making contact – like quite a few other Texas sluggers – but this comes down to Boston acquiring six-years versus Texas getting one. Neither is a sure thing, and if the reports of Boston paying 75% of the salary are true, then Texas is paying for roughly a win. Clearly Jon Daniels is focused on making a run in 2010, the question is whether Rich Harden and Lowell can stay healthy enough to contribute.

Given that this is really Lowell for Ramirez and Beltre, I think you have to give the edge to Boston. Although maybe the wrists are bigger cause for concern than we know.

On a free agent market lacking elite reliable arms, Rich Harden stood out as perhaps the most intriguing of the never-well collection. Today, the Texas Rangers signed the 28-year-old to a one-year deal worth $7.5M along with a $11.5M club option for next season according to Craig Calcaterra.

This isn’t the Rangers first run-in with an injured pitcher, as they were reportedly infatuated with Ben Sheets throughout last off-season and this season. Unlike Sheet, Harden actually pitched last season, and pitched moderately well. A FIP of 4.35 is worse than we’ve come to expect from 6’1” righty with an average fastball velocity just north of 92 MPH, but he still induced many an empty swing. Harden’s 67.3% contact rate ranked tops amongst all starting pitchers with at least 140 innings. In fact, over the last three seasons, Harden is the only starter below 70%.

Harden’s xFIP has ranged from 3.5 to 3.9 each of the past four seasons. He’s morphed into more of a fly ball pitcher lately – allowing 40% or more fly balls each of the past three seasons – which isn’t what you want from a guy heading into Arlington, but it is what it is. A move to the American League is going to hurt his numbers a bit as well. Still, Harden is pretty familiar with the American League West and its inhabitants, having pitched with Oakland for the majority of his career.

The money itself is similar to the deal Brad Penny just received from St. Louis. When healthy, Harden is the superior talent. The problem with Harden has never been talent though, but the nastiest six-letter word in the baseball dictionary when it comes to pitchers: health. There’s a good chance he throws something like 140 innings and produces 3+ WAR. There’s also a good chance he gets hurt in May and misses most of the year with an injury, as he has two of the past four seasons.

Risky indeed. However, if Harden can do the unthinkable and stay healthy, Texas just made the AL West race a lot more interesting.

Today’s targets are Ian Kennedy, Ivan Rodriguez, and Joakim Soria.

Kennedy was part of the blockbuster deal yesterday, and finds himself a new home in Arizona.

Rodriguez signed with the Washington Nationals as part-player, part-mentor.

Meanwhile, tomorrow is the annual Rule 5 draft, and Soria is probably the most recent shining example of a raw pitcher being taken and becoming something ridiculous.

Yesterday the Yankees added their left-handed centerfield savant in the form of Curtis Granderson. Their newest admission to the majestic pinstripes is a returning member: southpaw Andy Pettitte as Joel Sherman is reporting the sides have agreed upon a one-year deal worth $11.75M.

Most people may have not even realized that Pettitte was a free agent since he seemed fairly content to simply remaining a Yankee. He will turn 38 next summer but the guy can still pitch. Last season Pettitte held an xFIP of 4.38 and in the previous two seasons of 3.73 and 4.35. Each of those is coming in the American League East as well, so he’s not exactly plastering road kill to the mount above his mantle as much as going toe-to-toe with a bunch of lions and bears.

Compare that to a similar free agent, Randy Wolf, who is roughly four years younger and looking at a potential three-year deal, and it seems odd that Pettitte cared not to shop himself around, even to cross-town rival Mets, since he ostensibly enjoys the New York lifestyle. Against weaker competition Wolf has posted xFIP of 4.17, 4.29, and 4.36 and he’s on the verge of a multiple year deal.

Of course, maybe it has to do with the fact the Yankees gave him nearly $12M which few other teams could or would have. The Fans project Pettitte to be worth nearly 3 WAR next season. Pettitte has always been someone paid fewer dollars than his performances have called for. Since 2002 he’s earned roughly $118M in free agent dollars, but only paid around $83M. Over the past few seasons he’s consistently been around a 3.5-4 win pitcher, and while you have to take age into account, this is the Yankees and this deal doesn’t seem too far-fetched.

Five seasons ago, Bobby Crosby was fresh off winning the American League Rookie of the Year award and Ronny Cedeno was a quick riser through the Cubs organization. Both looked like promising long-term shortstops for their respective clubs. Today, it appears the two will be fighting for a starting position on the Pittsburgh Pirates. Troy Renck is reporting that Crosby is on the verge of signing with the Buccos and should be given the opportunity to compete for a starting gig.

This is a poor situation. Both were once dripping with potential, but that attribute is not of static nature. Players do not retain high-upside simply because they held such qualities three, five, seven years. In this case, both have some chance to become useful players off a Major League bench, but pitting one against the other in a starting competition? Yuck.

The word competition will produce some satisfaction since the adage about competition brings about the best in some individuals. That may or may not be true, and if it is, the Pirates need more competition to make either of these cats a worthwhile starter. Over the last three seasons Crosby has hit a park-unadjusted .231/.290/.348 and Cedeno has hit .228/.278/.349. Crosby’s line is better in its raw form and only improves once adjusting for the facts that A) he was in the A.L. and B) he played in a spacious environment. One must also adjust Cedeno’s offensive production, noting that he spent all of last season between two home parks that hinder right-handed power.

Crosby turns 30 in a matter of weeks while Cedeno is about a month and a half shy of his 27th birthday. After posting mostly above average UZR scores at shortstop, Crosby sparingly played the position while the A’s plugged in better alternatives. Instead he spent time at third base where he made quite a few errors and looked out of place. He still appears to be the better of the two options when filling the six hole, which isn’t saying much. Still, the Pirates aren’t knocking on the door of contention either. They’re simply biding their time while seeking out a more enthusiastic-looking long-term option so this is more of a band-aid than anything.

Assuming this deal gets done and Neal Huntington hasn’t lost his mind, Crosby shouldn’t make too much coin and at the same time will have a pretty good shot at becoming a starting shortstop once again.

Yankees trade RP Brian Bruney to Nationals for a player to be named later; Nationals release RP Saul Rivera

And the first real trade of the Winter Meetings is … a middle reliever for the Yankees being moved to Washington for a player to be named later. Aw, excitement.

Bruney is coming off his third consecutive season with at least 30 appearances although his ERA is a tad bit deceptive as to his true value. Two of the past three seasons his FIP has finished over 5 and in 221 career innings his FIP is just shy of 4.7. He throws hard and misses bats, but he also has issues with walks. Discount his extremely high HR/FB% as beginner’s luck in the new Yankee Stadium and look at his xFIP instead, but you’ll still find that he pitched quite poorly.

Far more interestingly is the choice to release Rivera considering there’s an argument to be made that he’s a better pitcher. Much like Bruney, he struggled with homers last season, but prior to that 19.4% HR/FB outburst, his previous career high was 6% in 2006. Rivera’s fastball won’t induce saliva from the men equipped with radar guns, but his ability to pound the zone and induce groundballs is quite nifty. Again, ignore the home run rates for a moment and look at Rivera’s xFIP the past three seasons: 4.54, 4.10, and 4.41. Look, he’s not Mariano Rivera, but that and his groundball capabilities make for nice depth in the worst case.

Of course, the swap-off will be largely irrelevant in about two weeks time since we’re talking about sixth or seventh inning options for the Nationals.

In other reliever-related news:

Red Sox sign Scott Atchison to a one-year deal with two club options

In nearly 70 career innings Atchison has looked good. No reason to read too much into those numbers, but this is a depth move more than anything. Harry Pavlidis has a more in-depth look.

Pirates sign Vinnie Chulk to a minor league deal

Does anyone remember his fantastic 2007 season still? Apparently so, despite his whiff rates creeping the wrong way in each subsequent season.

Anytime the Marlins and Pirates are mentioned in the same breath as trading a player the mere concept is looked upon as just another day in the never-ending cycle. No matter your thoughts on either of those teams’ respective business operations, odds are everyone can agree that Matt Capps and Matt Lindstrom are two of the more intriguing options on the bullpen trade market. They share more than a first name in common as both held an earned run average over 5.8 in half a hundred innings.

In honor of alphabetical order, Capps is up first. All of 26-years-old, Capps was once billed as the Pirates future closer and since 2005 has pitched 271.2 innings, striking out nearly seven per nine while walking under a pair of batters. His career FIP to date is 3.84 and he induces slightly more fly balls than grounders. He throws a fastball that sits in the low-to-mid-90s alongside a slider and his contact percentage is slightly above league average rates.

The biggest difference in Capps’ season seems to be a career high HR/FB. His career percentage, even now, is 8.8% yet this season it was 13.5%. Capps is arbitration eligible and was reportedly offered for J.J. Hardy and likely for Reid Brignac. Capps seems likely to bounce back to his usual production next season unless something deeper is at work. Entirely unrelated to his baseball performances, but his middle name is Dicus.

The same can be said for Lindstrom. He too suffered from home run issues previously unseen during his career. Lindstrom pitches baseballs extremely hard with an average velocity in the 96-97 MPH vicinity. Last season he also dealt with injury issues that even lead to some time spent on the disabled list. Unlike Capps, Lindstrom has limited experience in closing. Should that matter? Probably not as much as some teams hoping to lower the price will contend.

Perhaps the most interesting aspect of Lindstrom is something he has presumably little control over. You see, Lindstrom’s career groundball percentage sits at 45%, yet his BABIP is over .330. Over the last three years only Tyler Yates and Merkin Valdez have similar profiles. We’re not talking about an extraordinary large amount of balls in play either, so whether this is just random fluctuation or something that Lindstrom will hold with him heading forward is unknown. Odds are somewhere in the middle, although again, we’re talking 500 or so balls in play.

Recent reports call a Lindstrom trade “imminent” which, since today marks the start of the Winter Meetings, means Lindstrom is nearing an extension that will keep him in Miami for the rest of his career.

If one were to create a list of towns in which they would least want to regress from a career peak in fear of fan disapproval, Boston would likely rank pretty high. If that same one were a shortstop, Boston would be the top choice nowadays. Marco Scutaro dared the odds last night by agreeing to a two-year deal. This would seemingly dash any chances of Dustin Pedroia moving to shortstop and it also leaves the Sox losing their first round pick – but remember, they just picked one up thanks to Billy Wagner. Whether this pick goes to Toronto or … say, St. Louis, will be determined as the off-season progresses.

Dave Allen penned a masterful breakdown of Scutaro’s game here, and there’s not much to add. He is 34 years old and coming off what appears to be an anomalous performance. His 2010 wOBA will probably land somewhere below league average and his defense is a mixed bag. We know that if Scutaro fails in Boston, he will be battered with talk about how he couldn’t handle playing for a contender or how his effort slipped after signing (by his standards) a big deal. We know this because Boston has done it to a pair of other shortstops in recent years: Julio Lugo and Edgar Renteria. Here are some quick slash line comparisons at various stages of these players’ careers.

Season prior to joining Red Sox
Scutaro: .282/.379/.409
Lugo: .278/..341/.421
Renteria: .287/.327/.401

Three seasons prior to joining Red Sox
Scutaro: .272/.355/.379
Lugo: .284/.348/.405
Renteria: .308/.362/.440

Boston career
Lugo: .251/.319/.346
Renteria: .276/.335/.385

This isn’t to say something absurd – like shortstops simply cannot hit once they put on the emblem of Boston – but the coincidence will be the talk of the town when the inevitable occurs. Heck, it may not even take so long as spring training for people to write him off as a failure. Watch for the citing of his 100 career at-bats at Fenway in which he holds a .721 OPS and nine extra base hits or how his career batting average against the Yankees is .242 and an even worse .235 versus the Rays.

Scutaro swung the bat a smaller percentage of times and made contact more than he had previously done in his career. Will there be some retention in those areas? Probably. The safe bet seems to a wOBA around .325, which is coincidentally close to what the Fans and Bill James have projected. Scutaro’s defense is tougher to get a read on. Throughout his career he’s been a predominantly poor shortstop but the markings of improvement are there:

Season UZR/150
2009: 1.0 (1,252.2 innings)
2008: 20.3 (472.1)
2007: 2.6 (348)

The sample sizes from 2007-8 are uninspiring, meanwhile Dewan’s Plus/Minus has him worth 12, 9, and 1 runs saved during the same time period. Those numbers aren’t prorated and projected over 150 games though, so a direct comparison is more appropriate with the raw UZR figures of 0.9, 7.6, and 0.6. That just makes everything even murkier. The Fans Scouting Report held Scutaro in very high regard this season, placing him above Yunel Escobar and only three slots below Omar Vizquel. Just to be safe, project him at something like -5 < x < 5. Without the financial terms, it’s hard to label this deal as worthwhile, a steal, or a blunder, but it would seem safe to assume Scutaro will catch some grief for simply playing like he always has.

The 2010 season is going to be an interesting one for Jason Bartlett. He’s coming off a season in which he posted a .389 wOBA despite a previous career high of .335 – that coming in a half-season. Bartlett also hit more home runs (14) in 567 plate appearances than he had in the 1,700 prior (11). It’s no surprise that his ISO nearly doubled from the previous high and that his walk rate increased (as did his strikeout rate).

Part of the success derived from a high average on balls in play. Previous research has shown that BABIP is pretty good at predicting itself – more so than line drive rate and nearly double Dave Studeman’s LD% + .120 trick of the olden days. Bartlett is 30 years old now and while it’s not unheard of, he’s beyond the age where you start thinking about guys hitting their prime. Oh, and you know how hitting more groundballs can be productive for a hitter’s BABIP? Yeah, well Bartlett hit a career low amount of balls on the ground last year. And people wonder why I’m not completely sold on Bartlett the Conqueror?

So, imagine my interest upon seeing the most beautiful sight on our player pages nowadays – the blue highlighted row consisting of the Fan Projections. With a brisk click I was a bit surprised at what I saw: Rays fans are projecting Bartlett to have a .345 wOBA and the other fans are projecting a .349 wOBA. That would rank as Bartlett’s second best offensive season, but still, it’s .040 points lower than last year. More telling is that the BABIP projections are right around what you would expect from Bartlett. To surmise the forecasts to date: “Yes, Bartlett will retain some of his new found offensive prowess; no, he won’t be second best hitting shortstop in the American League again anytime soon.”

Obviously I have no idea to what extent people are doing calculations when filling these things out, but if you run a quick 5-4-3 weighting of Bartlett’s previous three seasons and don’t adjust or regress, you get .346. Add in the 2 for an average American League shortstop and you get .342. Pretty close to the projections thus far either way; although I’m sure that will change now that I’ve pointed it out.