Have you ever had one of those occasions where a trip down memory lane leads to acquiring a new piece of information? As you can guess, that is exactly what happened to me yesterday. While sifting through the bargain bin — also known as the minor league free agent list — the name Corey Patterson appeared. Memories of Patterson’s 2003 season. A season in which Patterson hit 13 home runs (he hit 14 in nearly 300 additional plate appearances the year prior), stole 16 bases (18 in 2002), and saw his ISO jump from the low-to-mid .100s all the way to .213 ended prematurely thanks to a knee injury.

Anyhow, curiosity got the best of me and I searched for his page on this very site. What I found was a bit surprising. In my mind Patterson has always been a solid defender. The scouting reports and UZR figures back it up; however, the degree to which he once scored is pretty impressive. Franklin Gutierrez produced one of the finest defensive seasons our UZR data has ever seen this year with a 29.1 score. In 2004, Patterson’s UZR was 24.6 while exclusively playing center.

Truth be told, Patterson has rated pretty well since that season too, but he’s never received as much playing time as he did then. His UZR/150s over the following three seasons were 11.3, 14.2, and 1.0. 2008 sat at 0.7 and 2009 has far, far too small of a sample size to say anything worthwhile. This is all from playing center. Patteron’s bat is lackluster. He doesn’t walk or hit for much power. He could be of some use as a pinch runner and defensive replacement for some National League team, though.

Frankly, I’m just disappointed I didn’t discover this earlier. When I attended a mid-June Nationals/Rays game I thought to myself that Patterson – then playing right – should’ve been in center instead of Elijah Dukes. Such is life.

Some have expressed interest in the r-squared values for common metrics like walk and strikeout rates for starting pitchers. With that in mind I took each of the pitchers with at least 100 innings pitched in 2008-9 and ran their BB% and SO%. This gave us a sample of 92 pitchers and some numbers that are pretty similar all told.

Here’s the graph with important information for walk rate:

And here for strikeouts:

Minimal difference. Both are skills, albeit not 100% so. The more interesting aspect from the data set is the biggest droppers and risers for each. Jon Lester saw his strikeout rate rise from 17.4% to 26.7%; Justin Verlander from 18.5% to 27.4%; Joe Blanton from 13% to 19.5%; Matt Garza from 16.6% to 22%; others who jumped at least five percentage points include Adam Wainwright, Clayton Kershaw, and Zack Greinke. The biggest droppers for Ks were Joba Chamberlain (-9.5%), Scott Kazmir (-7.8%), Ervin Santana (-6.4%), Micah Owings (-6.1%), and Bronson Arroyo (-4.9%). Something must be in the Angels water bottles.

As for walks. Verlander again excels at something good and saw his walk rate decline 3.5%; Barry Zito and Ubaldo Jimenez saw 2.6% drops; Ted Lilly and Ubaldo Jimenez round out the top five with 2.3% drops and Felix Hernandez experienced the sole other 2% drop. Kyle Davies had his walk rate climb 3.5%, Livan Hernandez and Owings (ouch) 3%, Andy Pettite 2.9%, and finally Santana and Todd Wellemeyer had their walk rates go up 2.5%.

For those who love consistency, Jake Peavy, Lester, and Nick Blackburn saw zero movement in their walk rates and Lilly held the same distinction with his strikeout rate.

When the Cubs inked Aaron Miles to a two-year, $4.9M deal last off-season, I was one of the bigger critics. Miles was consistently a replacement level player with one solid season under his belt – which just so happened to be 2008 – and the Cubs had a potentially cheaper and better player on their roster already by the name of Ronny Cedeno. Nearly 12 months later, Miles contract doesn’t just look silly, it looks downright pathetic.

Granted, he missed a load of time due to injury and wound up with 170 plate appearances, but his line for 2009 finished at .185/.224/.242, good for a .212 wOBA and a park-adjusted wRAA of -17.2. Combine that with slightly below average defense and we have Miles’ WAR at -1.3 for the 2009 season, a dollar value of negative $5.7M. That’s right, Miles’ value in 2009 was actually so bad that it eclipsed his total contract value.

Now he had a poor BABIP, walked less than normal, struck out more than normal and 2009 doesn’t seem truly representative of his talent level, but it’s on the books. That two-year, $4.9M deal is more like a two-year $9.6M deal based on the negative value accumulated. What makes all of this even worse for the Cubs is the utility infielder market this off-season presents. John McDonald, Juan Uribe, Omar Vizquel, and even lesser beings like Eric Bruntlett are prime for the taking, and at prices that likely undercut the one paid to Miles.

On the bright side, Cedeno wasn’t much better than Miles. He just made fewer dollars and Jeff Baker played pretty well during his Cubs half of the season. A little under $3M won’t sink the Cubs or prevent them from adding another player or two, but you never want to willingly waste assets. I think Jim Hendry would take a mulligan on this one if given the opportunity.

For the third time in as many off-seasons, Eric Hinske will be able to select his next team on the free agent market. The 2002 Rookie of the Year is far removed from any shred of stardom and continues to etch out the career arc of a role player.

Hinske’s BABIP fluctuated heavily between 2006 and 2007 which led to a pair of odd seasons. In 2006 his BABIP reached a career high .335, and he enjoyed a .357 wOBA in the process while joining the Boston Red Sox. The next summer his BABIP dipped to .254 and his wOBA dropped like a rock to .316. His 2008 and 2009 seasons look somewhat similar:

2008: 432 PA, 20 HR, 11% BB, 23.1% K, .218 ISO
2009: 224 PA, 8 HR, 12.4% BB, 27.4% K, .189 ISO

A little less power and contact, but the walks are a welcome addition to most lineups. He’s an uncommon left-handed bat with an appetite for an all-righty diet. In what might be the biggest surprise, UZR rates Hinske as an average to slightly above defender in the field despite his bulky and, at times, lethargic frame and embarrassingly short-ranged dives. To his credit, Hinske usually catches what he gets to, and while his arm isn’t winning any gunfights with Vladimir Guerrero or Ichiro, the total package seems to get the job done.

Last off-season Hinske was essentially frozen out of a job until the Pirates called. It’s easy to see the same thing happening this off-season, although Hinske figures to stick in the American League. Not because of defensive limitations or league favoritism, but because each of his last three teams have won the pennant and two of those teams won the World Series. He’s the ultimate winner and general managers should plan accordingly.

The Hindenburg is an accurate portrayal of the 2009 Mets. Injuries, more injuries, and even more injuries lead to a disastrous campaign from the Metropolitans despite the opening of a new stadium in what was supposed to be a ceremonious christening like the other New York team witnessed. Amongst the questions the Mets will attempt to answer during the off-season includes David Wright’s 2009 and where he stands for 2010.

Wright’s power went on sabbatical in 2009. His ISO dropped from .225 from 2006-8 to .140 last year in spite of an inflated average on balls in play. Wright popped at least 25 home runs in each of his first four full seasons, but managed only 10 last season, and failed to reach 40 doubles for the first time in a full season, either – although he did hit 39. The Mets’ new park gives the appearance of a pitcher’s haven, which raises the question: was a lack of power only a problem for Wright, or was this a widespread occurrence?

To attempt and answer this question I took every member of the 2008-9 Mets who had at least 250 plate appearances in both seasons and compared their ISO. Unfortunately, this only resulted in five samples: Wright, Carlos Beltran, Fernando Tatis, Luis Castillo, and Ryan Church. Below you will see the results, but anecdotally I feel obligated to mention that Church saw 144 plate appearances with the Braves and had his ISO rise closer to expected levels.

Each player involved saw his ISO drop by nearly 20 points, and that’s even with Castillo’s inclusion. In theory, Castillo’s slap-hitting approach should be unaffected in large part by the ballpark’s steeper dimensions, but here that doesn’t seem to be the case. One season’s worth of data from five individuals isn’t enough for me to say one way or the other about the legitimacy of Wright’s blackout, but here’s another dataset to consider with each of their home/road ISO:

Even smaller sample sizes and also a mixed bag. Barring any Earth-shattering revelations or limb amputations, I would expect Wright to hit for more power in 2010. Mostly because it seems unlikely he would see his ability to hit for power decay in such an abrupt fashion.

It must be the off-season since it’s time for the annual Mark Prior-inspired period of optimism. Yesterday, Buster Olney reported the 29-year-old is prepared to work out for scouts soon enough. Three entire Major League seasons have passed since Prior last threw a pitch in a regular season game in the majors or minors. That hasn’t stopped some from still hoping Prior will one day make the long trek back to the majors once again.

Okay, or maybe it’s just me.

Everyone knows his tale of the papyrus-thin tendons and ligaments resulting in macabre injuries, but how many have forgotten that one magical season where Prior lived up to the hype, the status, and created what now seems like myth? 2003 was Prior’s first full season in the bigs after appearing in 19 games for the Cubs in 2002. He would start 30 games, pitch 211.3 innings, allow 57 earned runs, strike out 245, and walk 50. Anytime you can take a starting pitcher’s earned runs, add his homers and walks, double it, and still have a total lower than his strikeouts, I would say he’s having a special season.

Take a look at how Prior’s 2003 matches up to Zack Greinke’s 2009 – keep in mind the league averages have fluctuated a bit, so the comparison isn’t 1:1, but stick with me:

K%
Prior 28.4%
Greinke 26.5%

BB%
Prior 5.8%
Greinke 5.6%

X/H%
Prior 33%
Greinke 32%

HR/FB
Prior 7.5%
Greinke 4.5%

Comparable by those measures. Prior’s 2.47 FIP and 3.23 tRA match up considerably well to Greinke’s 2.33 FIP and 2.81 tRA, as well. Prior pitched fewer innings and induced fewer groundballs, but being “slightly worse” than Greinke’s 2009 season is a tag most pitchers would desire.

The odds of Prior making it back to the majors are probably pretty low. I realize that. I’d just rather ignore it for a few days a year.

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For more prospect-related talk, feel free to check out my piece on evaluating young catchers at Baseball America. A subscription is required.

The last time Xavier Nady was in the limelight he was in the midst of career best season, hitting .305/.357/.510 and finishing 2008 with the New York Yankees after a mid-season trade. In July, Nady’s 2009 campaign officially ended after undergoing Tommy John surgery on his throwing elbow. Unfortunately for the (in two days) 31-year-old, he enters free agency coming off what amounts to a week full of regular season playing time over the last 12 months.

From 2005-7, Nady hit .274/.330/.457 in 1,338 plate appearances. In 2008, he hit .305/.357/.510 in 607 plate appearances and the Pirates sold high on him to the Yankees. Nady’s gratuitous BABIP inflation faded after the trade – err, I mean he melted under the pressure of the bright lights – and his OPS went from .919 with the Pirates to .794 with the Yanks. A napkin estimation of Nady’s 2010 wOBA probably lands you in the .330-.340 range. Or, average-to-slightly-above.

Any team interested in Nady has to consider what his arm was before the injury and what it will be like afterwards. From 2005-7 Nady posted exactly zero positive arm ratings, and in 2008 he was about a run above average. He won’t make a ton of errors but he also won’t make a ton of difficult grabs either. UZR rates him as an annually slightly below average defender even with a positive 2008 thrown into the mix. Dewan’s Plus/Minus agrees with the slightly below average description.

That makes Nady essentially an average right-handed hitting corner outfielder. Gabe Kapler is somewhat comparable and he signed a one-year, $1.05M deal with the Rays before hitting the open market. Mark Kotsay signed a similar deal but he’s a lefty. He’s not a four-win player like he was in 2008 and teams know this. Factor in the injury and it’s hard to see him making near his $6.5M salary from this season, not that Scott Boras won’t try.

Long-time followers of my work know I’m a nut for moves that are largely irrelevant, such as all these off-season waiver claims. Rather than attempt to cover all of them, I’m going to try and touch on the more interesting ones. Whether anyone else is interested or not is beyond me, but here we go:

SEA claims RHP Yusmeiro Petit from ARZ
WAS claims LHP Doug Slaten from ARZ

Arizona loses some pitching depth, although neither figured to contribute much heading forward. Slaten is a typical lefty reliever and Petit is a back-of-the-rotation arm with lackluster stuff and statistics.

TB claims RHP Ramon A. Ramirez from CIN

Ramirez has split time between the pen and rotation over the last two years. His change-up seems a bit interesting, although that is drawn from small sample sizes in the Majors. Probably Triple-A bound, whether it’s the rotation or bullpen is to be seen.

TOR claims SS Mike McCoy from COL
TOR claims INF Jarrett Hoffpauir from STL

McCoy moves to his fourth org in four years. He’s a short (5’9”) utility man – pretty much the textbook Toronto infielder. He’ll be 29 not too deep into next season and has six career plate appearances at the Majors. Meanwhile Hoffpauir has hit well throughout his Triple-A career: over 1,100 plate appearances resulting in a .285/.362/.428 line. He’s 26 years old and got a cup of coffee last season for the Cardinals.

Worst case is ending up playing significant time in the majors. Best: both providing an extra padding of depth in the high minors.

BAL claims RHP Armando Gabino from MIN

Gabino actually started a game for the Twins last season. He found little success in his brief major league stint, but his minor league track record is generally decent. His fastball sits in the low-90s and he favored a slider over a change-up per our pitch data. His strikeout totals have never been too impressive either, but they have been consistent level-to-level.

The official Elias free agent compensation rankings were released earlier today. For those unaware, these rankings essentially determine the draft compensation (if any) a player’s previous team will recover based on a few criteria. For one, the former team must offer the player arbitration or have the player sign before the arbitration offering deadline. From there, Type-A players who sign with a team outside of the top half of round one will see their new team surrender their first round pick and their old team receive said pick as well as a compensatory pick in the supplemental round. If a player signed with a team in the top half, then the old team will receive a compensatory pick and the team’s second rounder. If one team signs enough Type-As, it’s conceivable another team could receive only a third round pick for their Type-A free agent, like Toronto with A.J. Burnett last year.

Arizona, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Florida, Kansas City, Milwaukee, New York (N), Oakland, Pittsburgh, San Diego, Tampa Bay, Seattle, Texas, and Washington take no part in the fun this year, although most of those teams have at least one Type-B free agent on their hands.

Some names, like Matt Holliday, Jason Bay, and John Lackey are no doubters. There are a few players, notably Victor Martinez, Cliff Lee, Manny Ramirez, Rafael Betancourt, and Jermaine Dye who have an option holding them up from free agency. Then, there are players like LaTroy Hawkins, Kevin Gregg, Bengie Molina and John Grabow who raise more questions about the process and rankings than anything else.

Go to the Type-Bs and you run into some fun comparisons. For instance, did you know, that if Carl Crawford’s option weren’t exercised earlier, he would have the same compensation necessary to sign Scott Eyre, Jason Kendall, and Fernando Tatis? Or that Chan Ho Park is equal to Melvin Mora and Miguel Olivo. Or – this one is the best – Adrian Beltre is equal to Xavier Nady and Jason Varitek.

Most teams are going to take advantage of the system underrating players like they always do. This free agent market doesn’t figure to be as strong as last year’s, and remember how long it took for Type-A players like Juan Cruz to finally land deals? Unless their original teams step into the fold, it’s going to be a long winter for players like Darren Oliver, John Grabow, and LaTroy Hawkins; or maybe just a long winter for the fans of a few teams who give up a first or second rounder for their rights.

Pedro Feliz’ home run in Game Four of the World Series will be his last big Phillies hurrah, as yesterday the team declined to pick-up his 2010 contractual option. Instead of paying $5M, the Phillies will pay him a half a million buyout and look in the free agent and trade market for their next hot corner holder.

Feliz will turn 35 in late April and finishes his Phillies career with a little under 1,100 plate appearances, 26 home runs, and a .699 OPS with generally strong defense. His defense has seemingly declined a bit over the last few seasons, but he’s a good bet for (at worst) an average season of UZR and a ~.700 OPS. Dave Cameron pointed out Feliz’ run of consistency here, and Feliz responded by blowing it within the final weeks of the season and dropping his OPS by a dozen points. Go figure.

As a full-time starter he’s probably a slightly below average player, but for the right pay – say, less than five million – he could be a decent addition to a number of teams, even as a bench player.

For the Phillies, Buster Olney amongst others has suggested Adrian Beltre as a potential fit. Beltre makes sense, he’s a rich man’s Feliz: strong defense, ignorance of weak OBP, and some nice pop. Given his (grotesque and fluke) injury mishaps this season, Beltre could come for fewer years and dollars than he’s really worth. As Dave Allen noted here, Beltre’s bat is suited for a non-Safeco park – or just one that doesn’t constrict right-handed power like the almost 31-year-old Beltre would provide.

If such a swap is to occur, then the Phillies would see an immediate upgrade at third base, but would also make the Mariners the biggest supplier of talent to the two-time National League champions.