Jered Weaver and Josh Beckett started the game by not allowing anyone to reach base until two outs in the bottom of the third. A half inning later Victor Martinez drove in Jacoby Ellsbury and Boston claimed the lead while scoring for the first time in the series just like that. It didn’t last for long, as Kendry Morales hit a game-tying sac fly in the fourth. After that fourth inning the Sox wouldn’t have a runner reach second again until the ninth.

Beckett pitched fairly well, but the seventh inning killed him. Here’s the rundown of events:

Vladimir Guerrero walked.
Kendry Morales flied out to left.
Howie Kendrick advanced on a stolen base to 2B.
Juan Rivera grounded out to third.
Maicer Izturis singled to center; Kendrick scored.
Izturis advanced to 2B on a stolen base. 
Mike Napoli was hit by a pitch.
Erick Aybar tripled; Izturis and Napoli scored.
Billy Wagner enters to relieve Beckett.

All told: Boston is averaging less than a run per game. It takes at least one run to win a ballgame so you can see why this would be an inconvenience to any team. Here are the regulars’ wOBA thus far in this series:

Ellsbury .353
Pedroia .112
Martinez .200
Youkilis .157
Ortiz .000
Bay .329
Lowell .000
Drew .266
Gonzalez .223

No typos or miscalculations, two of Boston’s big bats literally have a zero wOBA. If this were an elementary school class the teacher would cancel recess because only one kid is doing his work. Youkilis is throwing spitballs at Pedroia, Drew is writing curse words on the sleeping Ortiz’ face, and Gonzalez is picking his nose in a corner. The post-season is usually the worst time for a prolonged slump, and here Boston has the makings of eight of them.

The major storyline of game three will be Scott Kazmir’s historical dominance over the Sox. For his career: 23 starts against, 130.3 innings, 138 strikeouts (9.5 per nine), 68 walks, and a 3.59 ERA.

Boston plans to counter “Kid K” with Kid Clay, or Clay Buchholz as he’s actually known.

How poor was Boston’s offensive effort last night? Only Jason Bay produced a positive WPA, and even then his figure was only .016. Mike Lowell contributed -.137; Kevin Youkilis -.094; David Ortiz -.059; and Dustin Pedroia -.058. To state the obvious: this needs to be corrected and quickly. Boston’s lineup combined to strike out five times (three were by Ortiz) and only walked once (thanks Victor Martinez) otherwise they put a bunch of balls into play and saw their efforts go unrewarded. They had chances to cash in, mind you, but not too many.

In the highly documented third inning, Boston put two on with two out and watched Pedroia fly out harmlessly on the second pitch. In the sixth Kevin Youkilis came up in a similar situation which lead to a fielder’s choice. In the eighth, J.D. Drew singled to start the inning, advanced to second after an errant pitch, and was stranded as Casey Kotchman and Jacoby Ellsbury grounded out to third and Pedroia lined out to second.

That’s it. Those were the only times Boston really threatened. John Lackey is responsible for some of the futility, but the Red Sox were the best team in the American League at drawing walks during the regular season and last night Bobby Abreu tripled their free passes all by his lonesome.

As Carson noted, Jered Weaver goes to the hill tonight for the Halos, meanwhile Boston responds with Josh Beckett. Everyone knows what Beckett brings to the table: power fastball, heaven-sent curve, occasional change-up, awful facial hair, and enough folklore to make Curt Schilling question his self-worth. The most stunning revelation someone will have about Beckett today is this doozy which explains how John Henry wanted Beckett (and A.J. Burnett) to be transferred to the Red Sox following his purchase.

Using the phrase “must-win” for game two is a tad much, especially given the recent history of this team’s ability to resurrect their series chances in worse situations than 2-0. Still, avoiding an 0-2 start is preferable; both at the plate and in the series.

One thing to look forward to in this series: the game where Jeff Mathis and Jason Varitek both catch for their respective teams. Buck Martinez is acting as analyst for TBS. He used to do a little catching (and managing) himself which makes this an absolute treat. If you’ve ever experienced Kevin Kennedy talking about Joe Mauer or Varitek or … Gregg Zaun, you know what’s coming, otherwise prepare for a barrage of tales on how amazing Mathis handles a staff or the number of little things he could learn from someone like Varitek. It’s going to be delightful my friends.

And not to turn this into a post dedicated to bashing TBS, but time to get this out of the way.

In the third inning they committed a pair of errors:

1) Jacoby Ellsbury took a swing and knocked the ball back to pitcher John Lackey who tossed to first and ended the top-half of the inning, or so it appeared. Seconds later the game would go on commercial break then promptly return to inform everyone that catcher Jeff Mathis had committed interference.

2) After Dustin Pedroia lined out, TBS re-went to commercial break and following a pattern of black and white blank screens finally began playing actual advertisements. This was preferable to the flickering screen and apparently so much so that TBS allowed the commercial to last through the first batter of the bottom half of the inning. This would not be the first time such an incident occurred.

Those are less egregious than some of their analyst gaffes, but really, is it too much to ask for a clean broadcast? Yes, evidently it is.

Moving on.

Did anyone else find the Angels method of scoring amusing? Erick Aybar doubled, Chone Figgins bunted – and nearly beat it out –, Bobby Abreu walked (so typical), and then Torii Hunter launched a three-run homer. That goes against the seemingly ideal Angels scoring scenario: infield single, stolen base, bunt, and a sac fly.

C.B. Bucknor with a solid effort. Certainly showed why he qualified for the post-season. Pray for this man’s well-being upon entering the state of Massachusetts if this game is any indication.

The Red Sox’s offense can be summed up by this:

That is all.

In a rematch of the two returning American League playoff teams, the Angels and Red Sox begin their second consecutive Divisional Series showdown tonight in Anaheim.

25-year-old southpaw Jon Lester will don the incarnadine stockings in game one. This will mark his sixth career playoff start and his third against the Angels. One of the few quirks the Angels lineup features is their ability to mix and match with switch hitters. Kendry Morales, Erick Aybar, Chone Figgins, and bench bats like Maicer Izturis and Gary Matthews Jr. are able to bat from either side. Such flexibility complicates late inning bullpen match-ups based on platoon splits. Lester has near equal success against lefties and righties alike throughout his young career; meaning Terry Francona should experience more headaches from the Angels peskiness than Lester.

What most people know about Lester is that…
A) He defeated cancer
B) He threw a no-hitter.
C) He plays for Boston.

Allow me to add some more knowledge to the collective JonLesterInfo.txt file by using his 32 regular season starts. First, some observations on his approach:

– He rarely uses his change-up in the first inning.
– His fastball usage decreases throughout the game.
– Not shy about using his breaking stuff against either hand.
– Prefers to work away from lefties; is comfortable throwing up and in however.
– Pitches everywhere against righties, especially the upper two-thirds of the zone.

As for his actual stuff:

– He throws a few variations of fastballs; your garden variety four-seamer, a cutter, and a sinker.
– His four-seamer sits in the mid-90s and is mildly effective against lefties, but doesn’t miss many right-handed bats despite being the pitch he uses against righties the most often.
– Maybe it simply sets up well for his change-up which induced nearly 30% whiffs against righties this year.
– His cutter and curve are effective against both hands while his slider is absolutely filthy; 15% whiffs against lefties and 21% against righties.

Lester performed like one of the best pitchers in baseball during the regular season, if he replicates that tonight, runs are going to be tough to come by.

The Red Sox must submit their final divisional round roster to the league office this afternoon, but that didn’t stop Terry Francona from leaking a few of the details to the Boston press yesterday.

Veteran Paul Byrd is in, youngster Manny Delcarmen is out. Describing Delcarmen’s past month as “tumultuous” is being kind. 1) He was in a car accident and 2) he may have a blown tire. Over the final four weeks of the season Delcarmen appeared in seven games, racking up only five-and-a-third innings pitched, allowing three home runs, and unintentionally walking five batters. The differences extend beyond a run of poor pitching since his strikeouts, velocity, and ability to avoid walks dipped, leading to career highs in tRA and FIP as well as concern for his well-being.

Meanwhile Byrd claims the season’s Roger Clemens Memorial Award as the old pitcher who returns mid-season only to find his way into the playoffs. The 38-year-old joined the Sox for seven regular season starts and will be in the Red Sox pen just in case Josh Beckett’s back stiffens up during his start. It seems odd when addressing a pair of pitchers – one nearing 40 who sat out most of the season and the other 29 and probably within his physical prime – that we would be worried about the latter’s back giving out, but hey, that’s baseball.

Speaking of old-man injuries, Rocco Baldelli’s hip could bump Brian Anderson onto the roster.One of those two will join speedster Joey Gathright as reserve outfielders. Gathright will also serve as the designated pinch runner and car-leaping extraordinaire. At least two of those skills should come in handy throughout the series.

Also worth noting: Daisuke Matsuzaka will be available out of the bullpen through the first two games of the series.

The October legacy of Josh Beckett

Beckett’s streak of usual post-season dominance came to an abrupt halt last October when he posted a 8.79 ERA and 8.99 FIP. That Beckett was coming off an injury, much like this Beckett, who missed a start last week due to a stiff back. He did make a start on Saturday night and should be good to go for game two. Whether the back injury flares up during the series again or not is anyone’s guess, but it did seem to affect his velocity during his last few starts:

Of course the more entertaining storyline surrounding Beckett will be fulfilled if the Red Sox and Yankees met up in the American League Championship Series. As you undoubtedly recall, Beckett embarked on his first great post-season during 2003, posting a 2.11 ERA and 2.66 FIP with the Marlins as they shocked the juggernaut Yankees in the World Series. Beckett was pretty good in 2007 with the Red Sox too as he posted a 1.2 ERA and 1.64 FIP.

The match-ups game

Terry Francona must be giddy with Billy Wagner’s performance since joining the Sox. In 13.2 innings Wagner struck out 22 batters and walked 7. Combine Wagner with Daniel Bard, Takashi Saito, Hideki Okajima, Ramon Ramirez, the as-of-lately struggling Manny Delcarmen, and of course Jonathan Papelbon, and the Red Sox have about as good as bullpen as you’ll find.

The Angels’ plethora of switch-hitters makes for a tough opposition for all teams, but especially those who play splits-game when it comes to bullpen management. For the Sox this shouldn’t be as big of an issue as they have a nice assortment of arms who can retire batters from either side. Below is a chart with three-year OPS against figures for the projected pen. Only Bard (who has a smaller sample size than anyone else included) and Ramirez have heavy platoon splits, the rest have shown an affinity for retiring both hands at either an above average or nearly equal rate.

The high-leverage ground game

Jacoby Ellsbury stole 70 bases on 82 tries this season so should expect to see him running during situations of all leverages, but keep an awfully close eye on him during the tense moments. On the season he was 12/13 in situations with 1.5+ LI and 29/32 for his career. Mike Scioscia may want to rent a Molina brother for this series.

Here are the lines for two of the top rookie of the year candidates:

Pitcher A: 30 GS, 180.2 IP, 6.2 K/9, 2.94 BB/9, 4.07 FIP, 4.6 tRA, 3.94 ERA, 13 wins
Pitcher B: 30 GS, 165 IP, 4.42 K/9, 2.73 BB/9, 4.81 FIP, 5.39 tRA, 4.04, 14 wins

Even if you use ERA and wins, it appears Pitcher A had the better season. Factor in the advanced metrics and it’s a pretty open and shut case, right? Wrong. As it turns out Pitcher B is getting all sorts of backing because of his age. He is 20-year-old Rick Porcello of the Detroit Tigers meanwhile Pitcher A is 26-year-old Jeff Niemann of the Tampa Bay Rays. Both are textbook rookies, yet one gets the hype while the other is getting the shaft. (Note: You can make the case neither is the rightful American League Rookie of the Year too, but this exercise imagines that Elvis Andrus doesn’t exist.)

In 2001, Ichiro was 27-year-old and rightfully won the ROY over 20-year-old CC Sabathia. Age didn’t matter then. A year prior another Seattle Mariner Japanese import won the AL ROY; this time 32-year-old Kazuhiro Sasaki defeated 24-year-old Terrance Long. So voters have passed over the younger options in favor of which they feel had the better season multiple times in the past, even in extreme cases like Sasaki’s.

Maybe it comes down to how you define award achievement. I believe it’s based purely off performance and not true talent levels or projections moving forward. Some may hesitate voting for Garrett Jones in the National League because Andrew McCuthen A) exists and B) is going to be the better player for longer. Under this mindset I suppose the Niemann/Porcello argument makes sense, but what if you throw Andrew Bailey into the mix? He’s 25-years-old, so somewhat old, but far more dominant in the aspects voters will look at – 1.84 ERA, 26 saves, only 4 blown saves, and more than a strikeout per inning.

I don’t really have answers to these questions, but I was hoping one of you did. Should age matter in all cases? Only extreme cases? How much should it make up for lesser performances?

Writers and players often tab fans of the St. Louis Cardinals as the best in the land. They are a loyal bunch in supporting one of the history-rich teams in the league. Over the years players like Mark McGwire, Scott Rolen, Larry Walker, and most recently Matt Holliday have moved to the league’s heartland at various points during the middle of the season and, well, caught the Cardinal fever so to speak.

In 1997 McGwire recorded 433 plate appearances for the Oakland Athletics, hitting 34 home runs and posting a .421 wOBA. The Cardinals pulled him from the A’s hands in exchange for T.J. Matthews, Eric Ludwick, and Blake Stein. McGwire promptly did what most 33-year-old first basemen do upon being dealt mid-season; he hit 24 home runs in 224 plate appearances and held a .447 wOBA with the Cardinals. Then he’d go on to blast 135 home runs over the next two seasons. Typical production really.

Five seasons later the Cardinals would pull off another large deadline deal by acquiring one of the finer third basemen in the league. Rolen would turn up the power production during his first half-season in St. Louis, and his .361 wOBA with the Phillies that season would look pedestrian versus his .386 figure with the Cards.

Walker would actually cool down with a .411 wOBA for the Cardinals as he did have a .460 wOBA before changing teams mid-season. For his efforts Walker would win a ring and retire after an additional season. This makes him the anti-Holliday, who went from a .368 wOBA with the Athletics to a .421 wOBA through his time with the Cardinals.

Bonus points for Jim Edmonds, although he was dealt during the off-season rather than in June/July. Of course I’m not saying St. Louis ultimately helps a player perform better, this is all mostly coincidence. A pretty amusing coincidence.

This figures to be my last post before Monday, which makes it my last of this regular season. That within itself is mind-blowing because it feels like April began last week. I remember opening day, watching Johan and the Mets take on the Reds while it poured outside. Fittingly the weather in Florida this week has been anything but dreary.

Some incredible things have happened in between then and now. A catcher by the name of Joe Mauer produced one of the finest offensive seasons we’ll see in between ruining his knees. Zack Greinke went from problems that extended beyond baseball to being the most difficult problem for opposing lineups to solve. Several players went to the disabled list for reasons similar to Grienke; depression and anxiety being amongst them in what seems to be a pioneer season for such stated DL trips.

The Yankees are American League East champions once more and the Boston Red Sox will join them in the playoffs. As a fan of the Rays this disappoints me, but did you realize we haven’t had a Boston/New York ALCS since 2004? Heck, if someone told you in late March those same Rays would A) have the longest losing streak of the season, B) have Ben Zobrist lead them in WAR, and C) be without Scott Kazmir for most of the year would you have believed them?

Pittsburgh shuffled what seemed like their entire roster in the span of six months, San Diego was the baseball version of a dumpster diver and still finished with a better record than Cleveland, and Washington successfully drafted and signed Stephen Strasburg. Kansas City made some moves that none of us agreed with while every time the Mets moved one of their stars went down with an injury. We saw the makings of a Seattle turnaround and the collapse of a run by the A’s. The Texas Rangers came up just shy while the Arizona Diamondbacks were never in the race.

This might not be the greatest season of all-time or the most dramatic, but it was certainly an entertaining one, and I’d like to thank everyone for enjoying it alongside us.

Felipe Paulino’s stuff is dreamy.

His fastball has sink and sits in the 94-96 range; occasionally touching the upper 90s and has been clocked in triple digits during his minor league time. Paulino possesses the innate ability to spin the ball; a gift showcased in the form a hammer curve that alongside his heat gained him prospect status and showcased at the major league level in his slider.

He doesn’t always have full command over his pitches and he’s yet to develop a worthwhile third pitch, but the guy has the raw talent. In a little under 100 innings Paulino is walking 6% of the batters he faces while striking out nearly 21%. His line drive percentage is sub-20% and he generates 42% groundballs, yet he has a 5.8 tRA and 5.23 FIP. What gives?

18.2% of Paulino’s fly balls are leaving the playing field. Amongst pitchers with at least 90 innings this season that marks as the third highest, behind only Josh Geer and Randy Johnson. Paulino’s xFIP is 4.12; a respectable mark for a soon-to-be 26-year-old in his first semi-full major league season. As we know starting pitchers regress to a home run rate around 11%, and there is no indication to believe Paulino will be a consistent outlier. He’s given up 20 home runs in 92 innings this year and 28 in 386 minor league innings. Factor in Paulino’s sub-75% contact rate and it’s clear something in his arsenal generates whiffs.

Grumbling about whether Paulino is a future reliever will likely magnify with his large ERA, but I’m unconvinced that a transition should be made prior to next season. Allow Paulino a full season of pitching before writing him off as extremely hittable and incapable of starting in the majors. I mean heck, this same organization gave Brandon Backe 70 starts over the last four years to prove he didn’t belong in the league, and he didn’t have the upside of Paulino.