When Dan Haren was traded from Oakland, some questioned whether his abilities would transfer as well in a non-crater ballpark. A shift to the National League probably helped and Haren’s home run per fly ball rate was never unspeakably low, but those questions have been put to sleep with back-to-back golden seasons. Haren recently topped the 200 innings mark for the fifth consecutive season and he’s got a nice little trend occurring with his strikeout per nine ratios:

His overall strikeout percentage has increased right alongside his per nine ratio and right now he’s striking out about a quarter of all batters faced. Combined that with a career low walk ratio and it’s no surprise that his FIP is the second best of his career; an uptick in fly balls and downed infield fly ball percentage has his tRA at the third best.

Sky Kalkman detailed the usage and recent fascination of the cutter in baseball here. Go ahead and add Haren to the list of users. Baseball Info Solutions has a career high 22.4% of Haren’s pitches being thrown as cutters. This pitch – sitting 86-87 – has enough velocity separation from his fastball and slider that I would guess it’s not a case where a pitch is being misclassified. Haren’s cutter represents his best pitch on an overall run value and per 100 basis:

wFB: 11.4 (0.83 per 100)
wCT: 18.0 (2.66 per 100)
wCB: 0.2 (0.03 per 100)
wSF: 9.1 (2.28 per 100)

Gameday is identifying a sect of Haren pitches as a cutter as well. The difference is the usage. Gameday says 6% which is a pretty drastic differential. Just eyeballing his slider velocity (GD: ~83-84, BIS: 80-81) it seems one or the other is mixing up the sliders and cutters. I’d guess the algorithm is the one mixing things up here, but the pitches do look pretty similar minus velocity, so maybe his true usage lays somewhere in the middle of the two percentages.

Whether the success is fully wedged on the implementation of a cutter or not, Haren is certainly doing something right.

In three weeks, Andrew McCutchen will celebrate his 23rd birthday on the first Saturday of the post-season. The Pirates hold no hopes or prayers of continuing play on that Saturday – they’ll wrap the season up the Sunday prior – but you can’t place much of that blame on their young center fielder.

A .270/.347/.459 line is way solid from a righty who primarily plays in PNC Park. Throw in 11 home runs and 16 (of 20) steals and McCutchen is living up to his billing. His walk rate is an impressive 10.4%, but I wouldn’t expect that to be the floor moving forward. Throughout the minors McCutchen only topped 10% in walks once, that coming at Triple-A in 2008. His ISO is higher than we’ve come to expect from him as well. I suppose the encouraging sign on that front is that his Triple-A ISO is identical to his major league number, so he has at least flashed similar power, albeit at a lower level.

McCutchen doesn’t seem to be expanding his zone too often and when he swings, he usually makes contact. The interesting aspect is how much he’s struggled with non-fastball pitches. Right now he’s absolutely devouring any heater thrown at him (a 1.13 run value per 100) but check out the run values per 100 on other pitches:

SL: -1.66
CB: -1.38
CH: 2.68

Perhaps he has some issues in identifying sliders from fastballs which could make for something worth watching as the league adapts to him in future months.

Defensively the sample size is extremely small. UZR suggests he’s a hair above average in center field and the Fans Scouting Report seems to agree with this take; placing him ahead of centerfielders like Josh Hamilton and Rick Ankiel (also Brett Gardner, which is odd.)

After taking over for Nate McLouth and seeing Nyjer Morgan, Jack Wilson, and Adam LaRoche find new homes, McCutchen has solidified himself as the face of the Pirates. Mock all you want; he’s doing the crossbones and eye-patch proud.

Last night the Rays lost the evening portion of a noon-dusk doubleheader. Not only did this put them at a somber 0-4 on the weekend and 0-8 on the week, but the loss actually marked the eleventh in a row. That is the longest such streak in the major leagues this season and comes from arguably one of its better squads.

Now, this team isn’t quite the one from a month ago. Carlos Pena broke a pair of fingers on Labor Day, sidelining him for the remainder of the season. In his place is Chris Richard. The rotation is featuring three pitchers in their first full pro years, including Wade Davis who went from masterful start to atrocious start in the span of a week. The bullpen has imploded on itself and the offense has chosen a poor occasion to mail at-bats in.

Losing 11 in a row is a pretty implausible for any team. Take a 50 win (.309) team and ignore strength of schedule as well as home field advantage. Just assume they have a 69.1% chance at losing each game. Over a course of 11 games that ragtag group will have about a 1.7% chance at losing all 11 in a row. That’s for a 112 loss team. The Rays are considerably better than that. To avoid argument, let’s call them a .500 true talent unit – I don’t necessarily believe that to be the case, but it’s not overly important whether you think they are a 81 or 88 win team here – and rerun the binomial distribution.

The chance of them losing 11 in a row is something like 0.05%. Yes, that’s already in percentage form, not decimal. The accompanying graph looks like this, with the win total on the x-axis and the likelihood of at least that win total occurring on the y-axis:

The Rays had similarly microscopic playoff chances entering this span of games. They pulled a statistical oddity, unfortunately for them, it’s not the opposite of what they needed.

Per innings ratios are often misleading. Identical pitchers can face the same number of batters and produce the same number of walks, strikeouts, and home runs while one completes more innings than the other. Defense plays an integral part in shutting down an opposition. If one of those pitchers has the Seattle Mariners defense behind him and the other has the Boston Red Sox, then you would imagine the pitcher benefiting from Franklin Gutierrez and Adrian Beltre will complete more innings.

The more defensive independent option is to look at total amount of strikeouts or walks on a per batters faced ratio. The ratios are easy to get a grasp on and have less room for outliers (at least in theory), which is why when you see a line that features 40% strikeouts and 6% walks you feel your eyes protrude and heart beat quicken.

Then you realize those percentages belong to a hitter and the magnetic field alters in the opposite direction.

Believe it or not, that line is real, and it belongs to the M’s Greg Halman. The 22-year-old has a history of striking out a ton and not walking very much. The differences between strikeouts and any other type of out is usually overplayed, but there’s something seriously flawed about an approach when the ratio is this high at the Double-A level. His other raw tools – mostly power and speed – are impressive. Impressive enough that Baseball America named him the Mariners number one prospect entering this season. Although that ranking came with this warning:

Weaknesses: For all his upside, Halman presents more risk than most No. 1 prospects. His pitch recognition is below-average, resulting in many swings and misses and mis-hits as he chases pitches out of the zone. He’s too aggressive at the plate to execute much of a plan, and as a result he strikes out too much and walks too little.

Our minor league leaderboards only track back to 2006, but as best as I can tell Halman’s rate represents the highest in the Southern League in this time period by a decent margin. For some reason, I don’t think that’s an honor Halman cares to hold.

Neither quite deserves their own piece.

Adam Eaton designated for assignment by Colorado

He’s bad. I mean really, really bad. I will be shocked if he gets another shot in the majors heading forward. His 7.14 combined tRA (6.77 and 6.63 the past two seasons) and 5.95 FIP tell the story. He’s not good at preventing walks, striking batters out, or missing bats. With a laundry list of concerns like that, it’s not much of a surprise that Eaton was unable to reach the 50 inning plateau on the season despite starting eight games and appearing as a reliever in four.

Of course the sample size is small this year, but we know from previous history that he’s simply a poor pitcher. At this point I wonder if he just gets gigs because general managers remember his name from a few years ago.

Rodrigo Lopez released by Philadelphia

Lopez appeared in seven games for the Phillies, starting five of those. FIP and tRA lock horns on degrees of success thanks to a line drive percentage just shy of 26%. That’s an unsustainable number, but Lopez has always had some issues with being unable to strand runners and a move back to the American League in a starting role is less than ideal.

The bigger story here is not that Lopez was released, but that Oakland is looking at him. It’s a logic fit, mostly because Lopez is cheap, available, and able to eat pitches so that Brett Anderson and Trevor Cahill won’t have to. Anderson is nearing 2,500 and Cahill may reach 3,000. Much like Brett Tomko, Lopez isn’t going to set the world on fire or cause good vibrations. Best case for him is to pitch well enough to earn a shot at the pen in spring training.

The most common off-season related article theme so far appears to deal with the Mets. Jayson Stark (taken apart here) wrote a piece all but announcing that they had to rebuild and had to trade Jose Reyes or Carlos Beltran in order to do so. Why do they have to though? Well because of injuries, and they need a few new players, and oh yeah, they need to shake things up; because nothing quite shakes up a roster like trading one of your legitimate studs at potentially their lowest value.

Reyes is a soon-to-be 27-year-old shortstop signed through 2011 for 20 million. Further, since 2006 Reyes has posted WAR of 5.5, 5.1, 5.9, and a injury depleted 0.7. Unless he eats bat boys in the clubhouse or brings back Hanley Ramirez, there’s not a logical reason to deal him.

The Mets are one of those intriguing teams to me. They have a plethora of stars and the media jumps on the “TRADE X” bandwagon every time something goes wary. Heading into next season the Mets will have David Wright, Jose Reyes, and Carlos Beltran. Depending on Johan Santana’s health, they could legitimately post four four/five win players without spending a dime on free agency.

A new first baseman, probably a new catcher, and a new rotation piece will be pricey, but the market for sluggers looks to be oversaturated once more. How much would a Russell Branyan or Nick Johnson really cost? Or they could always operate with a small market’s team mindset*; focusing on role players and smaller additions rather than the big names and marquee fillers.

Besides simply not making sense, does anyone honestly trust Omar Minaya to trade Reyes, Beltran, whomever and get a fair return?

*Speaking of which, one of my baseball fantasies is Billy Beane taking over the Mets. A) David Forst gets his GM gig, B) Beane would be re-energized by a new challenge, and C) he could work with fantastic resources.

Once upon a time, Kiko Calero was one of the pieces in the Mark Mulder deal and gained notoriety for being a solid reliever in Oakland. Calero fell out of the majors and public consciousness since developing a health allergy.

Nowadays, most people seem to be unaware of Calero’s presence in the majors. Quietly and in relative obscurity, Calero has posted an impressive 2.39 tRA and 2.38 FIP through 50-plus innings of work. Despite a fastball that sits in the 87-89 range, Calero has compiled a 69.1% contact rate (for comparison, Mike Wuertz is 57.5% and Jonathan Broxton’s is 68.6%), nearly a career best and a figure that speaks volumes about his devastating slider. His ability to miss bats is going to make him attractive because that should bode well for his strikeout rates moving forward.

Calero did miss three weeks in mid-June thanks to right shoulder inflammation. He’s had all types of issues with that arm since 2004 including rotator cuff tendinitis and surgery. Is there a risk here? Absolutely there is, but the cost doesn’t figure to be outstanding. His 2009 salary is a measly half a million. Even if he gets a deal similar to the one Joe Nelson received last year – similar in destination, injury history, and reliance on non-fastballs – one-year and 1.3 million, that risk is relatively low considering the reward.

In a free agent pitching market dripping with injury proneness, Calero may get lost in the shuffle and wind up a nice sleeper candidate for next year. Assuming his arm doesn’t detach before then.

Tony Pena Jr.’s quest to reach the majors as a pitcher is going swimmingly. Over the weekend Pena Jr. made his tenth appearance as a minor league pitcher. This marked his first as a pitcher in Triple-A, and Pena Jr. did pretty well, going three innings, fanning three, walking nobody, and allowing only two hits. Previously Pena had several appearances at Class-A Burlington with 14 strikeouts in 14.3 innings being the stat of importance.

Given their aggressive approach in advancing Pena, and the fact that he’s previously pitched in the majors I’d imagine he may get a few appearances for the big league club this September. It’s not like the Royals are going to lose anything by running Pena – a pitcher who may or may not have a better shot at a major league future than countless other Royals relievers – to the mound.

I would comment that Trey Hillman and company should embrace the idea of getting familiar with all the potential nuances and advantage of Pena’s flexibility, but being in the American League means there aren’t many to take note of. Lou Piniella and Bobby Cox have shown the willingness to keep two pitchers in the game at once by taking the outgoing pitcher and placing him in the corner outfield, only to replace the new pitcher a batter or two later.

I suppose that means Pena’s greatest usage may come during interleague play. His bat is something to avoid, but he seems like a twitchy manager’s fantasy: a reliever, pinch runner, and defensive substitute rolled into one.

The Giants are engaged in a (the) playoff race and called upon a big arm recently. Dan Runzler is still relatively new to professional baseball. After spending a few years at UC Riverside and bypassing the Mariners in 2006, Runzler was drafted in the ninth round of the 2007 draft. The 24-year-old tore through the low minors; striking out 25 batters in this first 19 innings in the system, 69 in 54 innings in 2008, and 83 in 59 innings this year.

At 6’4” and somewhere around 215 pounds, Runzler could easily pass for a football player. One glance in his direction and you expect a baseball to turn into a fireball when he loads and fires. That’s accurate (minus the pyro). As of this writing Runzler has thrown 14 pitches in the bigs and nine have been heaters. The average speed on these suckers is right around 96 miles per hour and – as best as I can tell – the velocity ceiling sits a touch above 97 miles per hour. Runzler has a violent breaking curve that darts down and in to righties and a slider to boot.

The issue with Runzler is predictable. His fastball control seems iffy at absolute best. Take a look at his unintentional walk rates through the minor leagues:

Rookie (77 BF): 7.8%
Short Season (134 BF): 17.2%
Advanced A (81 BF): 4.9%
A (220 BF): 14.1%
AA (40 BF): 15%
AAA (7 BF): 0%

The sample size is far, far too small at the AA/AAA levels to make any definitive statements about whether he can handle the majors without walking a fifth of the batters he faces. Still, it’s not unforeseeable to see Runzler draw some comparison to Matt Thornton (the M’s version) in the near future.

Today is labor day and no baseball blog is true of itself without making a post full of puns given the special occasion. With such, here are some pitchers who could use a day or nine off at this point in the season.

Justin Verlander
As I wrote elsewhere, Verlander leads baseball in starts in which he threw 120 or more pitches. This has occurred seven times this season. The two next highest pitchers in the American League have three of these games apiece. Averaging 111 pitches per game with a little over 3,200 on the season, there is a chance he will hit the 4,000 pitch mark with another seven-to-eight starts this year.

Tim Lincecum
Unlike Detroit, San Francisco won’t appear to have a chance for Lincecum to skip a start between now and season’s end. The Giants will need the live wire to maintain pace in the wild card standings. Like Verlander, Lincecum leads his respective league in games with 120 or more pitches thrown. Unlike Verlander, 4,000 pitches seems like a reach.

Roy Halladay
Did you know Halladay threw 133 pitches in one game this season? He’ll top the 200 innings mark once more, but Toronto could probably stand to pull the reins in as the season ends, if for no other reason to prevent potential injury. Yes, this is Doc, but Toronto fielded one of the best teams in baseball last year and finished fourth in their division – Lady Luck must be American.

Ubaldo Jimenez
The National League leader in pitches per game started. Same kayak as Lincecum.

Braden Looper
Oh, I’m not concerned about his workload and neither should you. He’s just not very good right now.