Meet the Red Sox’s insurance policy on Jason Bay and J.D. Drew. His name is Josh Reddick and he’s a 22-year-old outfielder who made his majors debut last Friday. The most noticeable thing when looking at Reddick is his eyewear, opting against contacts for whatever reason. The next thing you’ll notice is his impressive athleticism and ridiculous arm strength and accuracy.

A 17th round pick in 2006, Reddick has impressively shoot through the Red Sox system, reaching Double-A in his first pro season, albeit for only a game. Reddick has since recorded 420 plate appearances in Double-A, hitting .257/.332/.492 all the while shifting between right and center field. Reddick has an impressive 41 career assists; it’s not just luck either, his arm is ranked above average by nearly every scouting report.

Reddick has flashed improving pitch recognition skills and walk rates, but be forewarned: he’s going to strike out a bit. If he can stick in center his power (.235 ISO in AA) figures to exceed expectations for the position. Oh, and he’s a left-handed bat, which just makes everything even sweeter for Boston.

With Reddick’s impending inclusion, which current Sox outfielder will be going?

Drew is under contract for an additional two seasons, Bay qualifies for free agency at season’s end, and it seems unlikely the Sox mess with Jacoby Ellsbury. With two lefties already roaming the outfield, it would seem that keeping Reddick around as the fourth outfielder simply hurts lineup flexibility. Letting Bay walk and replacing him with Reddick does the same, but replacing Drew or Ellsbury doesn’t seem realistic either.

So where in the world is he going to play? Beats me, if nothing else I suppose he would make a nice part of a potential trade package.

Boston has perhaps the best front office in baseball. Theo Epstein has shown himself to be a savvy dealer and negotiator, usually taking advantage of the trade deadline to add an extra bat or arm for Terry Francona. He clearly understands the value of things like defense (see: 2004) and how variable a bullpen is, which is exactly why producing fluff like this is both brilliant and transparent.

Daniel Bard is a fantastic arm with an ethereal fastball, but the idea that he is untouchable seems chimerical at best and foolish at worst. Since Epstein took over, he’s shown to be willing to reshuffle his pen at any point and trade just about any pitcher if it comes to that. Bard ranked as the fourth best prospect in the Sox system last winter by Baseball America, look at the other top 10 Sox prospects that happened to be pitchers and their current organization:

2009 – Michael Bowden (BOS), Nick Hagadone (CLE), Bard (BOS), Stolmy Pimentel (BOS)
2008 – Clay Buchholz (BOS), Justin Masterson (CLE), Bowden, Hagadone
2007 – Buchholz, Bowden, Bard, Bryce Cox (B0S), Craig Hansen (PIT), Kris Johnson (BOS)
2006 – Jon Lester (BOS), Jonathan Papelbon (BOS), Hansen, Manny Delcarmen (BOS), Buchholz
2005 – Papelbon, Lester, Anibal Sanchez (FLA)*, Abe Alvarez (Indy Leagues), Delcarmen

Tally: 14 pitchers, 9 in the system, 4 elsewhere, and 1 completely out of MLB. Sanchez technically wasn’t dealt under Epstein, so you could say 8/13 were kept. The idea that Epstein is willing to keep his top young arms stands true, although not to the extent where anyone – especially a reliever – is technically untouchable. Break the list down by pitchers who joined and stayed on the club as relievers and you get: Bard, Masterson, Hansen, Papelbon, Delcarmen. Two of those have been dealt, one is usually a top three reliever in the land, and Delcarmen has been mentioned in trade talks before.

Excuse me for being captain obvious, but the label of untouchable is a great way to boost perceptive value while doing nothing else. A few days ago Derek Zumsteg had a great piece on how the Yankees use their media machine to persuade thinking towards their favor, this same thing applies here in a different facet. The media is going to run wild with this tag and perception and inflate Bard’s worth to the Red Sox and any team.

Maybe the Red Sox truly view Bard as an elite reliever and untouchable, but they would they say so unless they had other intentions in mind?

It’s only fitting that the Rays release Wade Townsend only days after Andrew McCutchen delivers on a three homer game. Back in 2005 the team was in the midst of transitioning to a new owner. Still in large for one last draft, Chuck LaMar and company decided to override the scouting department’s recommendation of McCutchen and instead select Townsend eighth overall. McCutchen went a few picks later (as did Jay Bruce and Cameron Maybin) and the rest is history.

Townsend was the second consecutive pitcher from the University of Rice taken by the Rays in the first round; joining Jeff Niemann who is currently enjoying his first season in the Rays rotation. Prior to the 2004 draft Townsend was pegged by Baseball America as the eighth best prospect in the draft, saying this about the 6’4” right-hander (The talented trio comment refers to the rotation formed by Niemann, Townsend, and former Mets/Twins prospect Phil Humber):

Townsend has the best fastball among Rice’s talented trio, but he must mature and improve his command.

Other scouting reports talked glowingly about Townsend’s hard curve and his bulldog mentality. Stating that at some point a switch to the bullpen might be best. After helping deliver a championship trophy to the University cabinets Townsend was selected eighth by the Baltimore Orioles but couldn’t come to terms with the team and instead returned to college, gaining his degree and re-entering the 2005 draft. The Rays took him despite reports of down velocity in pre-draft workouts and never saw him reach Triple-A.

Townsend endured arm injury after arm injury, including Tommy John Surgery that caused him to miss the entirety of 2006. Upon returning to action in 2007 Townsend pitched decently in A-ball and reached Double-A in 2008 as a reliever. Entering this year false reports of his retirement coincided with Townsend being assigned to the Gulf Coast League.

After three appearances, Townsend’s line sat at 2.2 IP, 1 HR, 7 BB, and 3 SO. 26-year-old pitchers struggling in the GCL are simply biding their time before finding a new profession. Ultimately a draft bust, Townsend’s name will live in draft folklore as to highlight the dangers of taking an overworked arm.

Too bad, because his college career was a thing of beauty.

For the past year and a half the Padres have ransacked the continent looking for major league starting pitching. Mark Prior’s caviar didn’t work out, Walter Silva failed, and numerous trades and bargain bin acquisitions netted them with little to show thanks to injuries and ineffectiveness. When all else failed, the Padres turned to 21-year-old Mat Latos. A draft and follow selection from 2006 out of Broward Community College in Florida, Latos shot through the Padres system, reaching Double-A for nine starts before jumping to the majors.

Latos’ performance thus far has been mixed. His ERA and win-loss record reflect a rookie sensation and the closest thing the Padres have to a phenom. A FIP over 5 does not. The relative good news for Padres fans is an unsustainably high home run per fly ball ratio of 16.7%. Fly balls are a common result when batters make contact with Latos’ pitches, but he’s pitching in PETCO and there’s no reason to believe he’s more prone to a higher HR/FB% than any other fly ball pitcher.

When watching Latos, the first thing you’ll pick up on is his outstanding fastball velocity. Pitchfx data has him touching 97.9 MPH with an average velocity of 94.6. He brings the fire each and every time out. The pitch buzzes in to righties and at those speeds seems destined to break a few bats. Right now he’s using it about three-fourths of the time, with a slider and change thrown in the rest of the time.

What’s interesting about Latos to date is his platoon split. Small sample size caveat applies heavily, but righties are hitting .091/.118/.273 against him while lefties hit .273/.360/.545. Remarkably lefties almost have a higher on-base percentage than righties do OPS. So what does Latos do against lefties, or rather, what doesn’t he do? Generally you hear about young right-handed pitchers not working in to lefties or simply being unable to without inciting a fire. As the graph below shows, he favors away, but he seems willing to go inside on lefties.

Of course being willing and being able are two different things. I took all 38 ‘inside’ pitches (described as further ‘in’ than the middle of the plate) out of his 110 pitches total against lefties and looked at the results. Here’s how they tallied up:

18 balls (2 in the dirt)
3 called strikes
9 fouls
3 swinging strikes
2 grounders
2 fly balls (neither were homers)
1 liner

Obviously this is a wider slice of the zone than you would like, and basing the idea that Latos can indeed go inside with success off 30-something pitchers is flawed. Up until now though, Latos’ problems exist away against lefties, not inside.

Jake Peavy has been traded to the Chicago White Sox for the second time this season. Unlike last time, Peavy has waived his no-trade clause to complete the transaction. San Diego gets four arms and Chicago gets a recovering Peavy with a torn ankle tendon. Back in May, Dave covered the Peavy aspect of a potential deal, but this was prior to his injury which could leave him sidelined for the remainder of the season. Most of what Dave wrote then still applies now, so rather than rehashing arguments of the past, let’s look at the eight-armed monster San Diego acquired in return .

Baseball America ranked Aaron Poreda as the White Sox’s best pitching prospect entering the season. A first round pick out in 2007, the 6’6” southpaw throws a hard fastball that can reach the upper-90s, a power slider, and your garden variety change-up. He made his major league debut earlier this season and has worked out of the pen for the White Sox 10 games, striking out 12 in 11 innings and walking 8. To date he’s torn Triple-A Charlotte up, generating 15.2% whiffs as a starter. If that isn’t appealing enough, he also produces a large number of groundballs.

BA listed Clayton Richard as the White Sox third best prospect entering the season. He’s another tall left-handed starter but unlike Poreda doesn’t feature a blazing fastball or powerful breaking pitch. Instead, Richard works in the low-90s with a sinking fastball and mixes a change-up, slider, and occasional cut-fastball into the strike zone. In 136 big league innings, Richard has a 4.28 FIP and has thrown 58% first pitch strikes. He attacks the zone and works quickly.

Adam Russell has worked exclusively out of the bullpen the past two seasons, including 22 appearances for the big league team last season. He was solid, working with a strong fastball that sat at 95, two breaking pitch offerings, and a seldom used change. Russell is 6’8” and throws from a number of arm slots, as you can see here:

Finally we reach 6’6” righty Dexter Carter. A college arm, Carter’s fastball touches the upper-90s and his low-minors numbers are flat out insane; striking out 232 batters in 186 innings and walking only 57. So much for control issues at this point, huh?

The Padres seemed to get a nice return on a guy who they tried dealing two months ago for basically the same thing. Somehow Kenny Williams didn’t mind the injury or the fact that Peavy is becoming less of a bargain by the day and gave Kevin Towers and company four live arms resting on four giants.

The Padres would have to field the tallest rotation in history if Chris Young, Poreda, Richard, and one (or both) of Russell/Carter make it, right?

We really needed a clean one-for-one swap that featured players of the same position. Thankfully Boston and Atlanta answered the call, giving us Adam LaRoche for Casey Kotchman.

LaRoche heads back to Atlanta after a few days in Boston and two and a half years in Pittsburgh. His wOBA is an average .328, but he should hit a little better down the stretch as his BABIP recoups to normal LaRoche levels. He’s a touch below average defensively and if nothing else gives the Braves a left-handed bat, but they aren’t gaining much, if any, value here because of LaRoche’s pending free agency.

Kotchman on the other hand is under team control for an additional two seasons. Essentially, Boston traded a third of a season of LaRoche for two additional seasons of Kotchman and the two are basically equals. LaRoche hits a bit better, Kotchman fields better, but at the end of the day they look almost exactly alike in the WAR column.

Presumably Kotchman plays the bench role that LaRoche would’ve, and allows Mike Lowell, Victor Martinez, or even Kevin Youkilis to be lifted or swapped around if needed.

Maybe Bobby Cox doesn’t like Kotchman or Frank Wren wanted to add some left-handed pop, but this is basically a tit-for-tat deal, and tat is a free agent at the end of the season. Unless there’s something beyond the surface here, I’m not really sure I get the move for the Braves.

Nobody can accuse Neal Huntington of being inactive. In the past few weeks Huntington has turned these guys:

Nate McLouth, Nyjer Morgan, Sean Burnett, Eric Hinske, Adam LaRoche, Jack Wilson, Ian Snell, Freddy Sanchez, Tom Gorzelanny, and John Grabow

Into these guys:

Charlie Morton, Jeff Locke, Gorkys Hernandez, Lastings Milledge, Joel Hanrahan, Eric Fryer, Casey Erickson, Argenis Diaz, Hunter Strickland, Jeff Clement, Ronny Cedeno, Nathan Adcock, Brett Lorin, Aaron Pribanic, Tim Alderson, Kevin Hart, Jose Ascanio, and Josh Harrison

Let’s focus on the last few names on each list for this post.

Grabow is a lefty who fares decently against batters of both hands and generates quite a few grounders. He’ll qualify for free agency following this season and the likelihood of the Pirates re-signing a decent but not great reliever is pretty low. He should fit in the Cubs pen fine and well.

Gorzelanny would’ve been eligible for arbitration following this season, but he’s spent all but eight innings worth in the minors. With a few solid seasons under his belt, Gorzelanny struggled last year, but he’s dominated Triple-A, striking out 85 in 87 innings. He’s a lefty who works off his fastball and breaking stuff while mixing some changes in as well. It’s easy to see Gorzelanny in a starter or reliever capacity for the Cubs down the road.

Hart headlines the Pirates return. Baseball America ranked Hart as the Cubs sixth best prospect entering the season. He’s appeared in 36 games for the Cubs over the last three years, starting only three of them, which has resulted in a 4.32 FIP to date. His command has been much better in the minors and he’s pitching well in Triple-A for the third consecutive year. He throws a fastball in the low-90s, a cutter, curve, and every once and a while, a change. Like Gorzelanny, Hart will report to Triple-A.

Ascanio is a relief arm who gets by on his mid-90s fastball and change-up. He gets swings and misses and could join the Pirates bullpen immediately.

Harrison is a 2008 draftee from the University of Cincinnati. His tools are questionable but his numbers have been decent to date. A college second baseman, Harrison is only 5’8” and plays all over the diamond; second and third base as well as the outfield. He doesn’t walk or strike out a lot.

Back to the Pirates trades as a whole, I ran the math for service time. Without including 2009’s service time, the Pirates have traded 28 years worth of team control time for 95 years worth. Obviously not every player acquired is going to reach the majors or be attractive enough to keep through their first six years, but wow, talk about adding some depth.

All the Roy Halladay to Boston talk is centered around a line that goes something like this: “Off-season signings Brad Penny and John Smoltz have disappointed. Smoltz especially with a 7.04 ERA and 1-4 record…”

Ignore the ERA and record, John Smoltz is fine. In 30 innings Smoltz has walked 5 and struck 28 out. Yeah, he’s given up a few home runs too, but his FIP is a steady 3.61 (3.82 xFIP) and tRA has him at 3.94 (4.81 tRA*) meaning he’s not giving up only sharply hit line drives. Still yet, his BABIP is .394 and his strand rate is 57.6%

Smoltz has had three starts with 5+ earned runs allowed, but look at the gamelogs from those games:

6/25: 5 IP, 7 H, 0 HR, 3 FB, 9 GB, 5 LD
7/6: 6 IP, 10 H, 0 HR, 7 FB, 13 GB, 4 LD
7/20: 5.2 IP, 9 H, 3 HR, 11 FB, 7 GB, 3 LD
7/26: 5 IP, 9 H, 1 HR, 7 FB, 5 GB, 5 LD

All total: 21.2 IP, 35 H, 4 HR, 28 FB, 34 GB, 17 LD. The results don’t seem to meet the processes. Allowing more hits than usual is nothing new for this year’s Red Sox team. They lead the league in BABIP against. A little over 32% of balls put into play result in hits. The next highest team is the Diamondbacks at 31.2%. Until someone produces evidence otherwise, I’m going to notch Smoltz’ BABIP up to a porous defense rather than a new found ability to throw watermelons 90 miles per hour.

The Red Sox are interested in Halladay because it’s Roy Halladay, not because John Smoltz or Brad Penny are pitching poorly.

Ned Colletti couldn’t come up with Cliff Lee so instead, today he adds a different southpaw pitcher in the form of George Sherrill; in the process giving up prospects in the form of third baseman Joshua Bell and right-handed pitcher Steve Johnson.

For now, Sherrill becomes the third lefty in the Dodgers pen – joining Hong-Chih Kuo and Brent Leach – but you would have to expect Sherrill to step into a role similar to Kuo’s of last season. The trade ends Sherrill’s year and two-thirds run as the Orioles closer. Sherrill posted impressive numbers this season, but he’s absolutely death to left-handed batters. In 50 plate appearances this year lefties have an OPS against of .356; in 72 plate appearances last year an OPS of .535; and in 106 plate appearances in 2006 an OPS of .529. Sherrill throws a fastball in the high-80s/low-90s along with a slider that sits in the mid-70s and generates a fair amount of whiffs.

In Bell, the Orioles receive a 22-year-old switch-hitting third baseman with impressive power potential. His ISO in Double-A this season is .203, but there are some questions as to whether he’s going to stick at third for the long haul or move to a corner – either first or left/right field. Bell has had issues with strikeouts in the past which reached their apex in 2008. His walk rate has grown impressive and his strikeout numbers are down for this year, so he’s definitely an interesting player to watch for in the next few years.

Johnson is a right-handed starter with impressive numbers who has split the year between High and Double A. His numbers are pretty impressive, striking out 117 in about 107 innings so far, but his stuff rates just above average. His control and command seem to be pretty good and whatever he’s doing, whether deception or otherwise, has worked to date.

The two seem like a nice coup by the Orioles in exchange for a two years and a third of Sherrill as they continue to build with impressive young talent.

The Yankees made a move for a pitcher today. Not Roy Halladay or Jarrod Washburn, but instead the Rockies Jason Hirsh. Acquired for the cost of a player to be named later, Hirsh is only two seasons removed from Baseball America ranking him as one of the 50 best prospects in baseball. At the time, Hirsh was fresh to the Rockies scene. Acquired in the Jason Jennings deal, Hirsh snapped a power fastball and good breaking pitches from his 6’8” frame.

Hirsh has since suffered through a number of injuries. A broken right fibula and sprained right ankle cost him more than four months in 2007 and rotator cuff inflammation sidelined him for nearly as long in 2008. In between visits to the trainer’s table, Hirsh pitched in a little over 100 innings with the Rockies, posting a FIP over 5.

As an extreme fly ball pitcher, Hirsh gets his fair share of home runs hit against him. Hirsh pitching in New Yankee Stadium against the AL East is about the worst combination possible. For the time being the Yankees are simply throwing Hirsh into a minor league rotation. Maybe they try him as the long reliever at some point down the road – Brett Tomko was designated for assignment to clear room for Hirsh – but it’s hard to envision Hirsh getting more than a throwaway start this year.

As for the Rockies return; who knows. Hirsh certainly didn’t hold much value for them, and if nothing else it could free up a 40-man roster spot for another acquisition.