Name the pitchers:
Pitcher A: 172.2 IP, 17.31% K, 5.85 BB%, 10.1% HR/FB, 67.7% LOB, 5.16 ERA, 4.55 FIP
Player B: 112.2 IP, 14.64% K, 7.88 BB%, 10.8% HR/FB, 85.9% LOB, 2.64 ERA, 4.53 FIP

Pitcher B is Kevin Millwood, benefactor of an unsustainable amount of stranded runners, thus keeping his ERA at a comfortable, and easily overrated, 2.64. Pitcher A is also Kevin Millwood, two seasons ago. The differences between the two seasons are minimal. This Millwood walks a few more, strikes out a few less, and has a vastly superior defense behind him, otherwise, they’re the same pitcher – literally and figuratively.

Millwood’s spiffy ERA has some placing him on their All-Star ballots, which is fair, as long as shortstop Elvis Andrus, right fielder Nelson Cruz, and the rest of the Rangers defense gets to play tag along to St. Louis. Don’t be surprised to see Millwood sneak onto some Cy Young ballots either, even if he cannot avoid the regression but as the season progresses. What would regression hold for the Texas righty?
Millwood’s strikeout and walk ratios share company with Jeremy Guthrie, Brian Bannister, Paul Maholm, and Dallas Braden. Guthrie’s homerun rate is too high, while Bannister’s, Maholm, and Braden’s are too low to be perfect matches with Millwood, but check out their ERA:

Guthrie 5.11
Bannister 3.93
Maholm 4.35
Braden 3.26

The closest, Braden, has a lofty 75% strand rate of his own and his ERA is still about a half run higher than Millwood. Even if you discount the high/low totals, you see Millwood’s company has an ERA in the 4-4.5 spread, about equal to his FIP. If you have Millwood on your fantasy team, sell him now. There are some examples of seasons like this actually lasting through October, but don’t bet on another Steve Trachsel 1996, just pull the trigger before it’s too late.

Milton Bradley, Jason Giambi and Pat Burrell were perhaps the three most enticing DH options on the free agent market this past winter. Nearly at the halfway point of the season, and not a one of them possesses a positive win value yet.

Bradley is obviously not a DH. Part of his negative value is tied into below average fielding, but his hitting has disappointed as well. Comparing any of Bradley’s future offensive seasons to 2008 is going to result in some lopsided differences. Bradley is walking about as much as you should expect based on multiple years of data, striking out about the same, but his power has disappeared. Coming into the season only Oliver projected an ISO sub-.200 for the 31-year-old, and now ZiPS projects Bradley to finish with a ISO of .197. Score one for Brian Cartwright’s system if Bradley’s power fails to return.

More of a first baseman than a DH, GIambi’s defensive value discounts his total value, but so does his below average offense. A .324 wOBA is awful by previous Giambi standards. In fact, it would rank as the second lowest of the figure in his career, behind only 2004 with the Yankees. This year is starting to resemble 2004 on multiple levels. Giambi’s walk rate, strikeout rate, ISO, and BAIBP are almost identical. Seriously, check them out:

BB% – 15.1/15.9
K% – 23.5/24.6
ISO – .170/.172
BABIP – .226/.224

ZiPS forecasts a bit of a bounce back, but I think the Athletics were expecting a bit better than a league average hitter when they reconciled with the slugger.

Burrell is the only real DH of the bunch, and the pressure of such a task was enough to strain his neck. Joe Maddon did let Burrell mosey in the outfield for one game, but the rest of the time Burrell has been paid to walk, jog, and sit. A ridiculous drop in ISO is the main culprit for Burrell’s .309 wOBA. Players generally don’t drop nearly .200 points in one off-season, yet Burrell is on pace for such.

Eric talked about not looking for reasons for unexpected failure/success yesterday, and that applies here. It’s pretty unlikely that Bradley and Burrell both saw their power skills decline this rapidly within one off-season. If you can trick someone in your fantasy league into thinking either is ‘done’, by all means pull the trigger.

I wrote about the Nationals defensive issues two weeks ago, and now they’ve gone and puzzled me even more.

Over the weekend reports suggested the Nationals are interested in Pirates outfielder Nyjer Morgan, the best despite an iffy bat has statistically the best defender in baseball . Apparently the Nationals were hoping to swap out wild child Lastings Milledge for Morgan in a good ol’ fashion challenge trade. In terms of assets, Morgan makes sense for the Nationals. He’s a bit older than you would expect (28) for the reasonably newcomer but has an excellent handle on defense and a below average bat that won’t sink a team.

What confuses me, is the Nationals then dealt Ryan Langerhans to the Mariners for Mike Morse. Langerhans is 29-years-old, a fantastic defender, and Langerhans has always hit better in the minors than Morgan. His weak 2007 was mostly due to bad luck on balls in play. Even if you argue Langerhans is slightly worse on defense, he closes the gap on offense and availability, since, you know, he’s already in the Nationals system.

While Milledge has a laundry list of past transgressions, it’s hard to believe the Nationals value him approximately the same as they value Morse. Milledge is a 24-year-old outfielder with two seasons of league-average hitting. Morse is 27, has no real defensive position and in his only real exposure to the majors hit about as well as Milledge.

So if the Nationals are interested in essentially trading Milledge and Langerhans for Morgan and Morse they gain nothing. The desire to dump Milledge’s baggage is understandable, but considering their 40-man roster already contains eight non-Milledge outfielders, it seems like they could stand to reshuffle assets to other positions than the outfield.

As for the Mariners, they get their Endy Chavez replacement for a spare part. Maybe the Mariners outfield defense will remain the best in the league after all.

Cameron Maybin’s stay in the minors could be coming to an end soon. The Marlins’ collective centerfielders aren’t getting the job done, ranking in the bottom third of the league in offensive and defensive contributions. Meanwhile, Maybin has scorched Triple-A in his second month at the level. Overall, Maybin is hitting .323/.404/.452 with a homerun, four stolen bags, and a passable BB/K ratio.

Maybin is only 23-years-old and he’s outhitting the PCL average of .271/.341/.414 by a fair margin. Despite missing a few games after an altercation with an umpire, June has been Maybin’s month. Entering last night Maybin was hitting .377/.472/.492 in the month with a near 1:1 BB/K ratio. A nice contrast from Maybin’s May, in which he hit .270/.333/.413 and struck out twice as much as he walked.

Maybin spent about a month in the majors to begin the year, and according to Cots was just shy of 60 days of service time opening the season. That puts him in the ~90 days range, which means he’s about two and a half months from reaching a full year. With that in mind, the Marlins only have a few more weeks to wait until they can promote Maybin and avoid chipping away on his cost-controlled time.

There’s also the question of whether Maybin is indeed ready for major league action. Given a limited sample size of just under 200 plate appearances, Maybin has hit a pedestrian .242/.309/.345; although, the incumbent group of centerfielders is not doing much better, with a combined line of .272/.321/.443. If Maybin is able to make contact better than 70% of the time, he could do a lot better.

Maybin looks like a special talent, one the Marlins are going to be careful with. Being two games back of the Phillies is going to test the Marlins resolve on whether the extra help for a playoff push is worth the potential long-term cons.

With Scott Downs down and out on the disabled list, the best reliever in the American League East is…

Nope, not Mariano Rivera or Jonathan Papelbon. It’s J.P. Howell of the Rays. A pseudo-relief ace, Howell’s usage is dictated based on the situation. Since closer Troy Percival fell to injury, Howell has been the highest leveraged reliever on staff with an average pLI of 1.88. During that time, Howell has been involved in 15 games, with only three saves coming from it. Howell’s batting line against during the run is a measly .154/.267/.440.

Howell is striking out nearly 11 batters per nine despite possessing a fastball that tops out in the high-80s. An average fastball from him measures at 86 miles per hour. With velocity against Howell, he relies on a slurve and change-up combination to get most of his outs. Howell’s walks and homers allowed have also taken a step in the right direction, and even though it’s unlikely that Howell continues to allow such a low homerun/fly ball ratio, his xFIP is 2.90.

As the trade deadline encroaches, many pundits will place the Rays amongst the suitors for relievers like Huston Street and Jose Valverde. The fact is, they can’t really afford to pay top dollar for a closer. The financial issue may play into Howell’s usage. If Howell is being used in ways other than a traditional closer, his cost could be kept down when he reaches arbitration in the off-season. Using a relief ace makes baseball sense too, and that’s why the Rays are doing it, but the financial aspect is just another perk.

J.P. Howell is one of the best, if not the best, healthy reliever in the American League. He may not rack up the saves, but he deserves to be an all-star.

David Wright has a batting average on balls in play of .467 through 300 plate appearances. That’s right, nearly half of the balls Wright puts into play are turning into hits. As such, Wright has a batting line of .349/.438/.502 because he is striking out more than normal. A lot of debate has raged on sites like Amazin’ Avenue over whether Wright can replicate this BABIP moving forward.

Short answer: no.

Observe Wright’s BABIP by batted ball type over the last few years, provided by Baseball-Reference:

2009 2008 2007 2006
GB 0.471 0.257 0.262 0.253
FB 0.234 0.129 0.184 0.180
LD 0.740 0.683 0.731 0.856

The glaring difference between this year and those of the past is Wright’s ability to turn ground balls into hits. Wright is a very good player, but we still must consider that he is a major league ballplayer. So far this season, major league hitters have a BABIP on ground balls of just above .230. Wright has usually hit above that, but not by some .200 points.

I ran a query through my database for the highest BABIP with 300+ at-bats, and the best I came up with is Reggie Jefferson’s 1996 (.408), Rod Carew’s 1977 (.408), and Jose Hernandez’ 2002 (.405). A couple of others topped .400, but the highest of highs is just shy of .410. Nobody comes near .420, or .450, or .470.

This isn’t to say Wright’s BABIP is going to regress to .350 this season. ZiPS projects Wright’s BABIP finishing at .405, a total that seems reasonable for both sides of the argument. Wright would have a historically high BABIP, but not overly so.

Yes, Wright is a fantastic hitter capable of finishing with an above average BABIP, as he has showed in the past, but no, his BABIP is ridiculously unsustainable. Major league hitters do not see nearly 50% of their batted balls go for hits over the length of a season. They just don’t.

The New York Yankees possess one of baseball’s best lineups. Big contributions from Mark Teixeira and Johnny Damon leave the Yankees ranked second in team wOBA and team wRAA. How the Yankees’ offense has hit to date is impressive, even when you take their ballpark into consideration. Alex Rodriguez’s odd, abbreviated season has seen him contribute only a run and a half more than Brett Gardner, but it’s hard to blame Rodriguez; the star third baseman has spent most of his time rehabbing and suffering more poor breaks on balls in play than Garry Hoy.

That offensive state of mind exists beyond the pantheon of new Yankee Stadium. Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, home to the Yankees’ Triple-A affiliate, features a triplet of red-hot bats. Shelley Duncan, Austin Jackson, and John Rodriguez patrol the outfield while on defense, and hit balls into the outfield during their time on offense. The three are inseparable on top of most International League leaderboards. Here’s how they stack up:

Rodriguez: .292/.377/.521
Jackson: .342/.410/.451

Duncan: .294/.369/.628

Jackson is the only one with a foreseeable future in pinstripes, since most prospect analysts rank him as the top prospect in the system. It’s easy to see how, as Jackson plays a smooth centerfield and flashes impressive offensive production for a 22-year-old. Look for him to claim a starting gig in the Bronx sometime over the next 12 months.

Rodriguez and Duncan are journeymen, albeit with some notable history in the majors.

The left-handed Rodriguez collected his major league experience in 2005 and 2006 with the Cardinals. He didn’t hit for a lot of power, and was little more than an average defender in the corner outfield. He did hit righties decently, and was used primarily in a platoon role. Rodriguez was nothing to spill your checkbook over, but teams have become infatuated with players of inferior quality of the years.

Duncan incites brawls, and during his brief major league career hit both lefties and homers. A lumbering man, Duncan’s defensive repertoire is limited to first base, DH, or a corner outfield position. He’s not a full-time player, but again, a team could do a lot worse than Duncan as the right-handed half of a platoon.

The powerful performance of Scranton’s outfield reveals that the Yankees have some offensive depth in the minors ready to go, which makes Angel Berroa’s continued employment in the Bronx all the more bewildering.

The best defensive outfield on land roams in Seattle most nights. Its claim to the crown grows more challenging asEndy Chavez will miss the rest of the season after suffering a torn ACL over the weekend in a collision with shortstop Yuniesky Betancourt. It seems Wladimir Balentien will platoon in left alongside Ronny Cedeno and/or an additional promotion at some point. Expect some drop-off unless the M’s add a strong defender ath position.

Betancourt does little right nowadays. Even after he swallows sadness (amongst other items) he ranks as one of the worst overall players in the majors. Jose Lopez forms Seattle’s middle infield, and neither is especially good with his glove anymore. On a team with an otherwise solid defense, the Betancourt-Lopez connection sticks out like Cyrano’s nose. Here’s how the pair stack up:

Player INN DPR RngR ErrR UZR UZR/150
Betancourt 522 0.5 -0.68 -2.2 -8.6 -20.1
Lopez 538 0.5 0.2 -3.2 -2.5 -5.9

Betancourt’s defensive decline stems from a robust error rate. Even if Betancourt’s ball-handling skills have decayed, it seems unlikely that he became this poor, this quickly. The range runs and double-play rate are around expectations, reflecting Betancourt’s atrocious play while maintaining that his true talent level is better than the UZR/150 suggests, if only barely.

Lopez can ill afford to chuckle at his counterpart’s failures. The bright side for Lopez is that his error rate is uncharacteristic and remains the only component relatively different from years past. Lopez’ family issues and once again disappearing bat will open the door at second base, but the Mariners currently have little on the shelves. Chris Woodward and newcomer Josh Wilson are little more than replacement level infielders. Ronny Cedeno seems like a logical answer, yet his bat has gone wayward as well.

The Mariners have some parts to move in the next few weeks. When they make a deal, look for at least one middle infielder to head to Seattle. Who and for what remains to be seen.

Kevin Millar’s role with the Blue Jays is one he’s played often: the non-descript, blasé veteran bat that happens to tote a championship ring on his finger. Millar’s pitch-type distribution reeks of oddity despite seeing nearly 600 pitches. That’s because nearly 5% of those pitches have registered as knuckleballs. The most recognizable knuckleballer remaining, Boston’s Tim Wakefield, has faced off with Millar on six different occasions this season.

How can nearly 5% of Millar’s pitches seen come from those six plate appearances? Like this:

PA#1: three pitches, pop out
PA#2: one pitch, homer
PA#3: three pitches, groundout
PA#4: seven pitches, walk
PA#5: four pitches, strikeout
PA#6: eight pitches, walk

Sure enough, 26 pitches over six plate appearances. A Millar season would not be complete without a few lengthy at-bats against Wakefield. In 2008, Millar racked up 23 pitches in six plate appearances, including a nine-pitch strikeout; in 2007, Millar drew 13 of his 29 overall in one plate appearance, which ended in a single.

To Millar’s credit, he’s been quite good at hitting the knuckler. After departing from the Red Sox, Millar’s wKN/C are: 8.18, 3.75, -2.29, and this year 9.79. Using the leaderboards from the past three seasons, Millar leads the majors in wKN, just ahead of Johnny Damon, Aubrey Huff, and a trunk load of Yankees. This makes sense, given Millar’s residence in the division during each of those seasons.

I guess the ability to hit knucklers is as good as any reason to keep Millar employed.

Sometimes trades fail to work out immediately. Dave Dombrowski traded the farm prior to the 2008 season for Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis – the perceived final pieces of a championship puzzle – only to see both play well shy of expectations. For the first time in four years, Cabrera posted an OPS below .900 – not quite the fall from grace Willis experienced, but also not the alpha dog Detroit desired. For a multitude of other reasons, the Tigers collapsed around the pair, and failed to qualify for the playoffs.

It’s fitting that as the Tigers bounce back, so does Cabrera; who is experiencing a sophomore bump during his second season in the Motor City. His .395 wOBA falls in line with seasons of the past. Not only is he hitting well through component measures like homers and OPS, but Cabrera is literally hitting the ball hard. Hit Tracker Online lists Cabrera as current “Golden Sledgehammer” leader, meaning Cabrera’s long balls are averaging a longer distance than anyone else in the league. Cabrera’s dozen dingers have an average standard distance of 423.7 feet, a full 60 inches further than runner-up Michael Cuddyer.

Any talk of American League pitchers mastering Cabrera is over. His walk rates are creeping upwards and his amount of whiffing borders near a career low. A .341 BABIP rarely constitutes being “below expectations”, but this is true in Cabrera’s case. From 2006-2008 Cabrera maintained a higher average BABIP as well as a higher ISO. The difference seems to arise from an increased amount of groundballs hit. These are leading to an influx of additional singles and a decrease in doubles; buoying Cabrera’s batting average while leaving his slugging emptier than usual. Given his homeruns, it seems apparent Cabrera still has a fantastic amount of power, so at some point the doubles should come.

Cabrera should breeze past the four win mark and could make a legitimate run at five wins. He won’t quite match the total value attained during his seasons as a third baseman – the first base positional penalty just won’t allow it – still, Detroit will be hard pressed to find much fault in Cabrera’s 2009.