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Oakland’s Bullpen In Need of Relief

Not a lot of things are going right for the A’s these days, they have a lineup that features Bobby Crosby, Jack Hannahan, and Adam Kennedy most days, their young rotation is taking a beating, and any plans of winning the division have seemingly been doused for the moment, but right about now, Billy Beane is probably thankful that he spent so much energy constructing his bullpen. Not because the pen has had many leads to secure and protect, but because more than any other team in baseball, the A’s are calling upon their pen to rack up innings. At least that’s what I found when I took the total number of innings pitched and then divided the amount of relief thrown innings by the total innings, giving us the percentage of total innings thrown by relievers. Here’s a look at the graph:

as

The A’s stick out like a sore thumb. That unit is getting about 4% more innings than any other team, and all things considered, is doing a decent job with it. The Marlins lead the league in bullpen FIP, but the A’s are the fourth best overall and second best in the American League behind only the Chicago White Sox. Off-season waiver claim Kevin Cameron, trade acquisition Mike Wuertz, oddballer Brad Ziegler, and middling starter-turned-reliever Andrew Bailey are the bright spots. Remember that the A’s lost their best reliever, Joey Devine, before he even threw a pitch this season. We all knew the A’s rotation would be a question mark heading forward, but I don’t think any of us expected the rotation to only pitch about 55% of the total innings thus far.

Also, for those curious, the other teams at the top and bottom of the graph. Top: Phillies, Orioles, Astros, Marlins. Bottom: Rangers, Pirates, Reds, Royals, Cubs.


UZR Tidbits Through May 17th

Almost a fourth of the way into the season, let’s take some position-by-position glances at the best and worst defenders.

1B
Best: Chris Davis (3.9), Ryan Howard (3.2), Lyle Overbay (2.9)
Worst: Jason Giambi (-3.9), Nick Johnson (-3.4), Joey Votto (-3.3)

2B
Best: Ian Kinsler (5.4), Rickie Weeks (5.4), Brandon Phillips (5.3)
Worst: Skip Schumaker (-7), Dan Uggla (-5.7), Chris Getz (-5)

3B
Best: Ryan Zimmerman (6.7), Joe Crede (6.4), Evan Longoria (5.6)
Worst: Michael Young (-7), Josh Fields (-4.1), Chipper Jones (-3.8)

SS
Best: Marco Scutaro (4.9), Elvis Andrus (4.2), Ryan Theriot (3.6)
Worst: Yuniesky Betancourt (-8.2), Khalil Greene (-4.4), Miguel Tejada (-4.3)

COF
Best: Nyjer Morgan (9.9), Jay Bruce (8), Brandon Moss (7.7)
Worst: Jason Bay (-9), Andre Ethier (-8.4), Adam Dunn (-8.2)

CF
Best: Mike Cameron (7.8), Matt Kemp (7.3), Franklin Gutierrez (5.7)
Worst: Shane Victorino (-7.5), Vernon Wells (-5.8), Elijah Dukes (-3.8)

A few other tidbits:

Proof that this amount of UZR data is pretty useless in predictive value, Carlos Beltran ranks as the fourth worst center fielder in the entire league at -3.5 runs. Over the last three years, Beltran’s UZR have been 8.8, 1.2, and 5.3. Even if you think his skills have declined, he’s unlikely to keep up this pace, which would have him at nearly -12 over 150 games.

The Pirates are your new team UZR leaders at 17.5, ahead of the Rays (16.3), Reds (15.2), Rangers (15.2), and Brewers (14.5). Meanwhile, on the other side of the spectrum, the Nationals (-18.3), Mets (-14.4), White Sox (-14.4), Red Sox (-12), and Orioles (-9) rate as the worst set of gloves in the league.


Pudge Pounds Number 300

Ivan Rodriguez hit career homerun number 300 on Sunday, putting himself in a special fraternity of backstops. Entering Sunday, only seven catchers had totaled 300 or more career homeruns while playing at least 3/4ths of their game at the position. They were:

Mike Piazza 427
Johnny Bench 389
Carlton Fisk 376
Yogi Berra 358
Lance Parrish 324
Gary Carter 324

ZiPS’ latest update has Pudge finishing with an additional seven homeruns through the end of the season, putting him about 17 shy of Parrish and Carter. Rodriguez’ placement on that list is pretty amazing when you consider his defensive reputation – well earned, mind you – as perhaps the best ever. Remember, Rodriguez has played the second most games at catcher of anyone in the history of the league, just over 2,300. That’s second to Carlton Fisk at 2,499. Depending on how Rodriguez’ season goes, he could find himself challenging that record at some point next season — assuming he can find a team.

Perhaps equally impressive to Pudge’s feat is Piazza’s. Sure, Piazza had his defensive shortcomings, especially later on, but his offensive totals are still awe-inspiring given the beatings he took behind the plate. Piazza ranks 14th in total games played as a backstop. As for some other catchers and their homerun totals, here’s a look at how ridiculous 300 homeruns really is:

pudge

As for other active catchers with a shot at 300, Jorge Posada sits at 226, Jason Varitek at 166, Ramon Hernandez at 138, Bengie Molina at 127, and A.J. Pierzynski at 102. That’s it for catchers over 100. Victor Martinez is the only catcher aged 30 or younger with 90, and the next youngest is Miguel Olio at 76. Brian McCann has 73 and he’s only 25, John Buck has 65 and is 28, Mike Napoli has 52 at age 27, and Joe Mauer has 50 at age 26.

Of course, the wild card in this could be a few weeks away, when Matt Wieters eventually arrives, but a question for discussion: which of the catchers is most likely to hit 300 homeruns? Or will any of them actually stick at catcher long enough to accomplish the feat as a catcher?


The Curse of Paul Sorrento

When the Rays signed Pat Burrell, I made an ill-fated comparison to Paul Sorrento. Reflecting on that moment, I’m in utter regret every time I bring myself to look at this graph:

For those unfamiliar with Sorrento’s place in Rays history, he was signed prior to 1998 to be the team’s first big-time DH. From 1995-1997 (his 29-31 year-old seasons) Sorrento hit .268/.352/.511 in 1,433 plate appearances between the Indians and Mariners. Over his next two seasons with the Rays, he totaled 843 plate appearances, hit only 28 homeruns, and his line fell to .229/.329/.403. Suffice to say, this was not what the Rays had in mind when they signed him.

Burrell is coming off his 29-31 year-old seasons in which he hit .254/.385/.504 in 1,810 plate appearances for the Phillies. Thus far this season, Burrell is hitting .250/.349/.315. A stiff neck has sidelined Burrell at least three times this season and leaves questions about whether the stiff neck is really a bulging disk.

Pitchers are taking a more aggressive approach to Burrell this season. Throwing him 60% first pitch strikes and quite a few more curveballs than normal. As a result, Burrell is making more contact than ever before, but the ball has only left the playing field once. A few close calls have resulted in long singles thanks to Burrell’s below average foot speed. His speed score of 1.6 almost seems generous.

Moving forward, it seems asinine in expecting Burrell’s HR/FB% to remain at 2.5%. Over the last three seasons that number has been 18.1%, 16.2%, and 18%, so we should be looking at a few handfuls of Burrell homeruns from here on out. That is unless Burrell misses even more time with whatever it is that ails his neck.

Hopefully it’s not Paul Sorrento.


Willie’s Blooming Power

Last season, in 192 plate appearances Willie Bloomquist recorded 46 hits, 45 of which were singles. That’s good for a batting line of .279/.377/.285, or an ISO of 0.006, one of the lowest in major league history. Naturally, Bloomquist has followed his powerless exhibition with 70 plate appearances and a .509 slugging percentage this season.

Ignore the .408 BABIP, the fact that Bloomuqist only has four extra base hits, and that his HR/FB% is well above career norms, and just focus on the sample sizes at play. Which is more likely to tell us of Willie Bloomquist’s true talent level:

A) ~70 plate appearances with a .500+ slugging
B) ~1,400 plate appearances with a .324 slugging

It seems like common sense, but sometimes our desires and optimism as fans lead us astray to the point where a few weeks’ worth of plate appearances that deviate upward from the norm cause us to start reasoning against the past. Bloomquist played at Safeco Park, which is known to sap right-handed power. The Mariners clubhouse was reportedly a miserable place last season, perhaps that affected Bloomquist as well. Maybe the Royals coaching staff is better too.

Even if you park adjust and somehow attempt and objectively credit his improved power to coaching and an improved atmosphere, you still won’t be able to add nearly 0.200 points of slugging – and if you did, you probably did it wrong. At the end of the day this is still Willie Bloomquist. The hot start is certainly going to help his end of season numbers, but the reason ZiPS projects Bloomquist to finish with a .385 slugging is not because it hates him, but because there’s an entire body of evidence suggesting against Bloomquist’s new found power stroke.


Another Look at Tim Lincecum

A while ago I wrote a piece on Tim Lincecum’s early season struggles. Since then, not only has he rebounded, but he’s looking like the best pitcher in the National League, sorry Johan Santana, Josh Johnson, and Dan Haren.

Lincecum’s FIP sits at 1.82, almost a full run lower than last year, his strikeout rate is up to 11.77 per nine, and his walk totals are down to 2.64. Oh, and he’s giving up even fewer homeruns The most amazing aspect of Lincecum’s turn around is his BABIP against. It was high before and it’s still high now. His career BABIP against is .312, this year his BABIP against is .368, that’s a lot of regression to go.

As for his pitches, Lincecum’s fastball is still down in velocity, 92.3 MPH instead of 94 MPH. His slider is being used more – or at least pitches registering as sliders – his curve usage is up and his change-up usage is basically static. Per our PitchFx data, Lincecum’s fastball is moving about a half-inch more in to righties, same with his change-up, and his curve is moving more vertically and less horizontally.

In that piece I also showed how Lincecum’s release point had changed, and speculated such as the cause for the lack of control, well, take a look at the release points that first start versus his last home start:


A little more clustered, don’t you think? If Lincecum keeps pitching like this, he’s going to make me eat my words when I wrote he may never top his 2008 season.


Luis Perdomo: The Ultimate Low-Leverage Reliever

Everyone suspected Luis Perdomo’s usage and the score of the game would have a relationship built upon by managerial artifice and desire to slowly transition Perdomo from Double-A to the majors. Thus far, it appears the plan is to not only to place Perdomo in low-leverage situations, but to put him in situations that combined to make him the lowest leveraged reliever in the majors.

Perdomo has appeared in nine games and recorded 37 outs all while doing so with an average leverage index of 0.10. Those nine entry points all came when the Padres were down by four or more runs, and usually near the end of the game. Here are the entry points in full:

April 15th: Bottom of the eighth to begin the half inning, Padres down by five runs.
April 17th: Bottom of the fourth, runner on second, two outs, Padres down by six runs.
April 21st: Bottom of the seventh to begin the half inning, Padres down by four runs.
April 25th: Top of the ninth to begin the half inning, Padres down by nine runs.
April 26th: Top of the ninth to begin the half inning, Padres down by four runs.
April 27th: Bottom of the eighth to begin the half inning, Padres down by four runs.
April 29th: Bottom of the sixth, bases loaded, two outs, Padres down by seven runs.
May 3rd: Bottom of the seventh to begin the half inning, Padres down by five runs.
May 10th: Bottom of the fourth, runners on the corners, nobody out, Padres down by three runs.

Interestingly, only two of his appearances have come within the confines of Petco, which probably speaks more to the Padres road woes – 5-13 as of this writing — than anything else. Here’s a quick way to check on how the Padres fared at the end of the season; check how many appearances Perdomo makes.


Edwin Jackson’s New Slider

Edwin Jackson’s prospect status has always attracted a claque yet his performance through 2008 hardly warranted the hype. A lively arm capable of touching the upper-90s with a blazing fastball and a whip like slider seemed destined for major league stardom, even more so after his debut, outpitching Randy Johnson – which should be a warning to anyone who takes the first “x” amount of games or innings as a predictor of future performances. Pitching coach after pitching coach tried to solve the Jackson enigma without much success. As blessed as his right arm was, he would go throw lapses where walks were plentiful and strikeouts, not so much.

Naturally, it’s a bit odd to glance at Jackson’s stat line and see a 3.51 FIP to go along with 7 strikeouts and 2.2 walks per nine. That’s not what we’ve come to expect from Edwin Jackson at all. So what’s changed?

Jackson’s BABIP is lower than it should be, but that has little bearing on his FIP, his HR/FB% is down despite his FB% being up, that’s something to watch for, Jackson’s getting slightly more first pitch strikes and a bucket load more of hitters chasing him outside of the zone. Why?

As it turns out, Jackson’s slider has experienced a metamorphosis in his short time spent in Detroit. Velocity has remained the same as the break has shifted. No longer is Jackson’s slider sweeping towards lefties, instead the break is far more subtle, and perhaps far more deceptive. Rather than breaking ~2 inches, it’s breaking 1, and the vertical movement is ‘down’ about an inch as well.

Whether Jackson has gained control over the pitch with this change – whatever the change may be, it’s the only one in his arsenal, because he’s no longer throwing his change-up very often – or simply a deceptive trick, it bears resemblance to another slider on the Tigers staff, Armando Galarraga. Whether this is a Galarraga hand-me-down or a Rick Knapp lesson, it seems to be working. We’ll see if it continues.


UZR Tidbits Through 5/10

The Reds outfield defense is pretty good.

Jay Bruce is the new UZR king with 9 and Willy Taveras is at 5.1 runs. That gives the Reds two centerfielders at all times, no matter who mans left field. The Reds don’t have many flyball heavy pitchers, but the staff as a whole are outperforming their FIP by 0.41 runs. Contribute a large part of that 3.93 staff ERA to a .289 batting average on balls in play against, which is tied for the fifth lowest in the league. For what it’s worth, fellow outfielders Jerry Hairston, Laynce Nix, and Chris Dickerson also rate as above average corner outfielders thus far, although not nearly to the extent of Bruce.

The left side of the Rays infield is the best in the league.

Evan Longoria ranks third individually with 7.4 runs and Jason Bartlett isn’t too far behind with 3.1 runs. Longoria rates as the best third baseman, a run better than Ryan Zimmerman, and Bartlett as the second best shortstop, behind Marco Scutaro. It’s also worth noting the Rays still maintain the best defense in the league, and now it’s not even close, 23.7 runs compared to the second place Brewers 11.6 runs.

From best to worst…

The White Sox, Dodgers, Nationals, and Red Sox make up the bottom of the league. I’m just as surprised as you to see the Red Sox ranking low. So far Jason Bay (-8.2, the lowest in the majors amongst qualified players), Julio Lugo (-2.4), Mike Lowell (-2.3), and J.D. Drew (-2.2) are killing them. The team leader is Kevin Youkilis at 1.4 runs. As for the Dodgers, Orlando Hudson and Andre Ethier are sinking them. You hate to make assumptions based on these small of sample sizes for defense, but if it holds up over the long haul then it’s time to proclaim Hudson’s run as an excellent defender over.


D-Backs Can Bob Melvin

It took about 30 games for the first manager to get axed. The whispers were all around the last few days that Arizona manager Bob Melvin was off the heat seat onto the plastic chair hanging over the volcano. Last night, the Diamondbacks organization made it official, relieving Melvin of his job. Later today they’ll name his replacement, Jon Heyman reports that it will be front office member A.J. Hinch.

You’ll remember Hinch from his playing days during the last decade. Most of Hinch’s career was spent in Oakland, although he later caught (pun intended) on with the Royals, Tigers, and Phillies. The interesting thing is that many figured Hinch was a future General Manager, not so much as a manager. Baseball America even named him as one of the more promising GM candidates just three years ago.

Hinch has a ton of issues to attempt and resolve. The ‘Backs still missing ace Brandon Webb and despite Dan Haren’s best Voltron impression, Hinch’s team is still nine games back of the first place Dodgers. Hinch’s lineup has holes at first base (.603 OPS), short (.666), left field (.524), and center (.521) and at this point it’s just a matter of catching Chris Young, Conor Jackson, and Stephen Drew on the upswing.

There’s only so much Hinch can do. Unless you believe the players quit on Melvin for whatever reason then Hinch will not be the reason things turn around in Arizona unless he speaks in a tongue that awakens bats.

As for the next manager to go, I’m not so sure that Eric Wedge should purchase any new furniture for his Cleveland home, especially as his bullpen continues to implode.