The scouting reports on Trevor Cahill suggests that he throws a heavy fastball in the 89-92 range, a knuckle curve, and a change-up while inducing a boatload of groundballs. Well, at least some of that shined through as Cahill made his major league debut on Tuesday night versus the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.

Cahill opened the game with a 26 pitch first and had problems finding the zone, an issue that would plague him for most of the night. Cahill would go on to have two additional 20+ pitch innings, and finished with 102 in total. That was enough to get him through five innings, five walks, and a handful of swinging strikes. Cahill also failed to generate the type of groundballs shown in the minors. A 5.59 FIP is based on that poor strikeout/walk ratio, although it’s pointless to read anything into one start.

A few Pitchfx observations, sans graphs:

Cahill’s fastballs ride up and in to right-handed hitters, although a few were flatter and straighter than you would like.

Location was definitely the biggest issue with Cahill. Given his minor league track record I’m willing to accept most of this was nerves related, but goodness 55% strikes is not good. This does not seem to be an issue with a single pitch either.

All and all, Cahill appeared to make a conscious effort in pitching away from left-handed hitters, while attacking the entire zone versus righties.

Is Cahill ready to be in a major league rotation? It’s far too early to tell. There are some positives and negatives to take from his first start, but the sooner he finds some more command, the quicker he’ll become successful.

The worst part about the opening day is the overreactions. Eric covered this in more depth last night, but Derek Lowe is probably not going to maintain a FIP sub-1 for the entire season, Brandon Webb and Aaron Cook are actually good pitchers, and CC Sabathia will not be a puddle of suck for the longevity of his contract.

Despite what Joe Morgan stated, Sabathia’s velocity was fine. Sabathia’s average fastball touched just over 93 miles per hour, and topped out at 95. Over the last three seasons, Sabathia’s average fastball velocities are 93.7, 92.9, and 93.7. Either Morgan was unaware and fabricating excuses for the Yankees’ new ace, or he simply has no idea how hard Sabathia normally throws.

In fact, the only slight difference between Sabathia yesterday and Sabathia of yesteryear was pitch usage; ~59% fastballs (right around average), 28% sliders (a tick above normal), 12% change-ups (a tick below) and one curveball. Oh, and yes, those velocities were all in check as well. Everything moved as it should, and if you don’t want to take my word for it, look below and guess which pitches are from yesterday and which are from Sabathia’s best start last season – as determined by WPA.

Yesterday’s pitches are those in pink. Yes, there are a few straighter than usual fastballs, but otherwise the clusters seem to have a lot of overlap. So, Sabathia’s velocity and pitch movement were nearly identical to last year, but he had some issues with command during his debut in pinstripes and in a sub-60 degree temperature.

Sabathia will be fine, the same cannot be said for those flocking to the nearest bridge.

Prior to March 30th of last year, most people had no idea Odalis Perez was still in the majors, and yet there he was on ESPN to open the season versus Atlanta.

The most unlikely opening day starter this year? Probably Oakland’s Dallas Braden or the Angels’ Joe Saunders. In terms of events having to occur for the pitcher to get the nod, then Saunders takes the cake. John Lackey, Kelvim Escobar, and Ervin Santana all had to go down with injuries. Owner of a career 4.36 FIP, Saunders doesn’t come close to the most unlikely opening day starter of the past few seasons.

Jason Johnson and Mike Maroth got the call in consecutive years for the Tigers. A 1999 game between the Pirates and Expos featured a match-up of Francisco Cordova and Dustin Hermansen. Steve Trachsel, Albie Lopez, Tanyon Sturtze, and Dewon Brazelton have done honors for the Rays. 2002 saw Ron Villone start for the Pirates. Remember when Jose Lima started opening day 2005 for the Royals against the Tigers? Yeah, odds are, neither does Lima. The Twins primary opening day starter this decade was Brad Radke, with the exception of two Johan Santana starts, last year they called upon Livan Hernandez. Ouch.

Billy Beane’s first opening as General Manager came with Gil Heredia on the mound. Jeff Fassero also got the start in 1999 for the Mariners. The Rangers? Let’s see, Rick Helling, Chan Ho Park, Ismael Valdez, and Ryan Drese. How about the Brewers, with a run of Rafael Roque, Steve Woodard, and Jamey Wright?

By comparison, Saunders nor Braden seems that out of place. Who are some opening day starters that proved once and for all why the word isn’t synonymous with “ace of the staff”?

Let’s talk platoons, more specifically, the right field platoon in St. Petersburg that features two guys named Gabe; Gross and Kapler.

Kapler is the lone right-handed hitter, and the one assured of a steady gig. Throughout his career Kapler has hit lefties well enough for a .828 OPS. Last year the Rays did an excellent job of limiting Gross’ exposure to lefties. In fact, only 21% of his plate appearances came against the same hand. Gross has a career OPS of .786 versus righties and .519 versus lefties.

This tells us that while Gross and Kapler should primarily be used in a strict platoon, there is room for overlap, at least against right-handed pitchers. There are some variables we’re not going to account for here, pitcher splits and leverage of these events come to mind. We can infer that the Rays have basically defeated the idea of using a LOOGY against Gross, because they can simply call upon Kapler to pinch hit.

Let’s assume the duo combine for 700 plate appearances and that Gross sees most of the playing time, about 60%, or nearly 400 plate appearances, and hits for his career average against lefties and righties while seeing 80% righties. Kapler, meanwhile, sees 60% lefties.

When using a league average wOBA of .330, that results in about three offensive runs combined over 700 plate appearances. Take away the 7.5 positional adjustment, add in ~10-15 defensive runs, and 22.5 playing time adjustment and you should get around 28 runs, or about a three win player, only in the form of two players.

As for the Gabe of the Day platoon, it’ll certainly work until the Rays front office deems Matthew Joyce ready for full time action.

Of course, using the last three years instead of career splits will result in more accurate numbers, but this is intended as a rough sketch of what a properly executed platoon can bring to the table. Sometimes, quality and quantity go hand in hand.

Busy few weeks for the Florida Marlins on and off the field. Yesterday, the Fish completed two trades and rumor has it they could be interested in making another.

First up, trading a player to be named later to the Kansas City Royals for Ross Gload.

That player to be named later better not be anyone worthwhile. Gload’s dexterity likely has as much to do with this acquisition as anything. The Marlins already have Jorge Cantu and Wes Helms on the roster – not to mention Gaby Sanchez lurking – but all of them are right-handed corner infield types. Gload is essentially restricted to first base, and happens to sign documents using his left hand. Over the last three years, Gload has been a touch below average offensively and about average defensively. For a first baseman who has played, but probably shouldn’t play the outfield, that’s not good. Particularly curious are Gload’s splits, which don’t indicate the traditional platoon split that you would expect from a marginal first baseman. If everything goes right, Gload can be an average player off the bench; otherwise, this seems like an insignificant move, and one that raises some eyebrows given the release of a similar player in Dallas McPherson.

Kudos to Dayton Moore for finally getting rid of Gload, whether the PTBNL is a worthwhile asset or not is irrelevant, the dump is worth it.

The Marlins followed that up by dealing shortstop Robert Andino to the Baltimore Orioles for pitcher Hayden Penn.

It seems like just yesterday Penn was being talked about part of a potential A.J. Burnett deal. Fittingly, Penn finally lands with the Marlins, but well after the fact. Penn’s path to the majors has been largely derailed thanks to command issues. Penn throws a fastball that sits in the low-90s, a curve, and a change, and could find work in the Marlins bullpen. CHONE and ZiPS are unkind in their predictions, but the next time Penn has major league success will be the first time.

Andino is out of options and the Marlins have two of the better middle infielders around. Gone are the days of Alex Cintron, Luis Hernandez, Juan Castro, Brandon Fahey, and Freddie Bynum. Andy MacPhail has turned that horrendous group into Cesar Izturis and Andino.

The Marlins are also reportedly interested in Frank Catalanotto, who would act as a reserve outfielder. Catalanotto was released last night.

Patrick Sullivan at Baseball Analysts already paid homage to Ken Tremendous on Jon Heyman’s latest column, but that won’t stop me from looking at this line:

[Manny Ramirez] could have replicated the years of Barry Bonds, with comparable productivity, less controversy and more good cheer.

I’m a fan of greatness, so Barry Bonds has a place in my heart despite the moral and legal issues associated with his legacy. Outside of crushing Rays pitching, I don’t believe I have too many bad things to say about Manny Ramirez either. Still yet, let’s analyze this step by step.

First up;

“Could have replicated the years of Barry Bonds”

The obvious response is “Oh, Manny’s playing for another decade?” Since, you know, Bonds spent quite a while in San Francisco. Second thought, Jon Heyman is out of his mind. Over the last three years, Manny has wRAAs of 49.2, 21.1, 56.3. Bonds last three seasons were 39.5, 33.2, and 4.3 – if you discard 2005, then you get 2004’s 108.8 wRAA season. CHONE has Manny at 38.3 and ZiPS says 35.5. We’ll call it 37. Of 15 seasons with San Fran, 37 wRAA would’ve ranked as Bonds’ fourth lowest offensive output. Manny is great, he’s not Bonds.

“comparable productivity”

See above, but if we’re talking present day Bonds, sure.

“less controversy”

Can’t argue against that one…

“and more good cheer”

Okay wait. Is this the same Manny Ramirez shipped out of Boston because Red Sox management was less than decisive on his option one way or the other which lead to him throwing constant temper tantrums? The same Manny who got into at least two shoving matches last year, including with a clubhouse attendant? The same Manny who invented the “Manny being Manny” motto after yearly trade requests? To recap:

Bonds
Was a prick in the clubhouse and took PEDs which might have made him a better player, therefore helping his team.

Bad guy.

Ramirez
Whined about his contract annually and gave questionable effort at times until he forced his way out of town.

Good guy.

The difference; their agents, silly.

Tampa Bay Rays principal owner Stuart Sternberg recently said he does not foresee the team’s payroll exceeding 60 million either this or next year. One problem, the projected payroll for 2010 is already over 60 million, and that estimate is without the increases players like B.J. Upton and Dioner Navarro will receive through arbitration.

That means players like Dan Wheeler (3.5 million), Akinori Iwamura (4.25 million), and Jason Bartlett (at least 1.98 million pre-arbitration) could potentially be on the move sometime within the next calendar year. Speculating on what those players could return is worthless, instead examining the players that could eventually replace them seems like a more worthwhile exercise, if not equally subjective in nature. More so, let’s focus on the middle infielder who could make all the difference for the Rays future plans.

Dave mentioned Reid Brignac last week as a player most teams would love to have. Brignac turned 23 in mid-January, but is a veteran of the Rays system. A high school draftee, Brignac shunned a commitment to LSU in favor of playing professionally in 2004. Nearly five years later, Brignac is in the perfect situation.

Last year’s first overall pick, Tim Beckham, might be the eventual shortstop, in 2011/2012. That leaves a few years between the time when Beckham will be ready and Bartlett will no longer be affordable. Enter Brignac. Formerly the offensively touted shortstop with questionable defensive skills, Brignac has worked tediously hard at becoming a better defender, and his offense has paid for it. Since 2006, Brignac has posted wRAAs of 31, 5, and -7.8 when the levels are combined. Meanwhile, Minor League Splits, using TotalZone, has Brignac worth 12, 8, and 0 runs defensively in that same time span.

Whether the scouts were basing their defensive opinions that Brignac may have to move based on his 6’3” frame or something the numbers fail to capture is up to anyone’s guess. The interesting thing I found is that only two shortstops at least 6’3” tall have played at least 100 games in the majors at the position; Cal Ripken Jr. and Andy Fox. However, a ton of 6’2” players have spent time at shortstop, notables: Derek Jeter, Troy Tulowitzki, Bobby Crosby, Hanley Ramirez, and Alex Rodriguez…basically your modern day shortstops. Is Brignac destined to join that group? We’ll see. [Ed Note: After the fact, I discovered that the shortstops listed are actually listed as 6’2.5″ inches tall. My query was for shortstops EXACTLY 6’3″ inches tall and it did not round up. Therefore, you can pretty much include those five in the 6’3″+ category.]

If Brignac’s defense has truly reached the level of being plus (5 < x < 10 runs) then Khalil Greene is an apt comparison. If the Rays feel he’s at that level, it would make sense to allow Brignac played shortstop until Beckham reached the majors, then shift the weaker defender to second.

We’ve seen our last WBC action for the next four years. The attendance issues are a bit concerning given the American venues hosting the American team, but it’s hard to be disappointed with the championship game and crowd. Let’s talk about some of the aspects that may need tweaking.

Television
The WBC presented the first opportunity for the MLB Network to produce original broadcasts. The first round games, when Harold Reynolds was reserved to the studio, were easily the best called games of the tournament. The announcers largely allowed the action to dictate the talking points and emotion. There was no inherent bias and the announcers did some research, presenting compelling information on players most of us knew absolutely nothing about. Reynolds’ presence in the booth all but killed that, as he all but transformed the broadcasts into a typical ESPN broadcast.

Speaking ESPN, whoever thought it was a good idea to have Joe Morgan, Steve Phillips, and Bud Selig in the booth at one time during a meaningful and exciting game should really never work again. Never. Also, the apologetic comments after Derek Jeter made a mistake was ridiculous. Jeter is a great player, nobody is ever going to argue that, but guys, you don’t have to act like a sycophant towards him.

Scheduling
The “plus-one” games were pretty worthless, even if they determined seeding. Some will complain about Japan and Korea playing five times and about repeat matches in general. With a limited field in a double elimination tournament, it’s hard to not expect some rematches. Perhaps a reseeding is in order although I’m sure the idea of a compelling “rematch” storyline is too match to pass on.

Venues
American fan turnout seemed to disappoint. With the best moment coming during the U.S.’s last stand as a unified “U.S.A.” chant broke out during Evan Longoria’s at-bat. Otherwise, the Japan and Korean fans stole the tournament. Perhaps it was the odd body paint, drums, chants, or presence of thousands of Thunderstix, but the atmosphere came across as everything you would hope for in the title game.

Heading forward, you have to imagine the U.S.A. team will have to go to a non-MLB stadium for a set of games. Where is beyond me, and how that would work with the TV schedule is again beyond me. The Olympics do it though.

Participation
A lot will be made of the perceived “lack of representation” for the Americans. In many ways, this is setting up for a “Redeem Team” similar to U.S. Basketball, only without the run of dominance proceeding it. There’s no easy solution here. For selfish reasons, I wonder if the U.S. team would ever consider going to collegiate athletes or even minor leaguers. Obviously that lowers the talent threshold and the tournament occurring during the college season makes the former nearly impossible, but who wouldn’t have tuned in to see Stephen Strasburg hurl against Daisuke Matzuaka or Yu Darvish? The American team was a bit stale to watch because of the familiarity with the players especially when you contrast it to their opponents.

Expansion is probably the next big issue. Whether that means expanding the field and tweaking the elimination rules or simply holding a qualifying tournament during the American off-season, it will be interesting to see just how popular the tournament can become internationally over the next four years.

As promised, let’s split up the starters from the relievers. Rather than set an innings barrier, I instead opted to eliminate all of those with less than 50% of their appearances coming in the form of starts. Our friendly neighborhood Ryan Franklin no longer qualifies to be spoken about and the overall numbers drop like you would expect. Here’s the causality breakdown:

5 P – 7 dropped
4 P – 34 dropped
3 P – 64 dropped
2 P – 30 dropped

That leaves:
5 P – 21 pitchers
4 P – 85
3 P – 70
2 P – 9

How did they fare?

If you’re thinking to yourself that those numbers look a lot like those presented yesterday, then you have a good memory. In fact, here’s the differentials between yesterday and today:

Note that a negative value indicates a drop in FIP.

5 P: 0.02 runs
4 P: 0.03 runs
3 P: 0.08 runs
2 P: 0.66 runs

As expected, looking at mostly starters sees the run averages increase.

To address some concerns from this analysis:

I’m not looking at grips, arm slots, release points, etc. instead simply the classification of the pitch. Some of the classifications are erroneous or too simplistic for the pitch style. That’s understandable.

Also not looking at the quality of the pitch, that would take examination on a pitch-by-pitch basis.

Looking at individual pitchers before and after the addition of a new pitch is definitely something I’ll look into pursuing. No guarantees though.

I’ve been talking about pitches, pitching patterns, and pitch usage a lot lately. Whether it be through PitchFx charts, simply sharing observations, or talking about a pitcher who needs an additional pitch. Finally, I broke down and gathered the data needed to see whether having a surplus of pitches or only a couple mattered to performance.

Most people have the idea that quality matters more than quantity in mind. I know I did. In fact, while running the query (last three years, at least 5% usage of the pitch, at least 150 innings) only one pitcher recorded more than five pitches and that was Ryan Franklin with six. As you’ll see, Ryan Franklin is not a particularly good pitcher. Franklin is passable, but I think you would expect more from someone who has a constant advantage in game theory. Now, it is possible that Franklin falls into patterns, tips his pitches, or simply throws hittable garbage, I’ll leave that up to you to figure out, my only interest is the amount of pitches used modestly and whether it makes for better pitchers.

We begin today with that query I mentioned earlier. No restriction on amount of games started and only 150 innings over the last three years; meaning relievers like Joe Nathan, Mariano Rivera, and Jonathan Papelbon were eligible to make the cut. Let’s get to the data, shall we?

Franklin was the only pitcher with six pitches and 28 pitchers had five pitches qualify. Tradition has most starters throwing 3-4 pitches and most relievers having one or two. Tradition holds true here. 119 pitchers had four pitches qualify, 134 had three, and 39 had two. Franklin failed to make a start over the last three years meanwhile pitchers with 5 pitches saw 64% of their games come as starters, 60.2% for four pitch qualifiers, 32.2% for three pitches, and 11.7% for two pitches.

Let’s look at how they actually performed:

Are the relievers skewing the two and three pitch numbers? Tomorrow we’ll separate the starters from the pack and see if that’s the case.