I’ll admit that I’m poorly versed in international baseball. I’ll also admit that I saw exactly zero of Korea or Japan’s first round games. Boxscores and second-hand reports were my only source of knowledge. Naturally, actually seeing and having data on these players has been one of the more rewarding parts of the tournament, at least for me, but imagine my surprise when ESPN flashed the Japan lineup and has a player named Hisashi Iwakuma playing second base instead of Akinori Iwamura, and yet Iwakuma had a Rays logo next to his name. Two thoughts came to mind:

“Wow, Andrew Friedman is sneaky.”
“Check the roster online, stupid.”

Now the Japan team did have a player named Iwakuma, but ESPN had incorrectly identified him for Iwamura since Iwakuma is a pitcher. After his game against Cuba, it’s safe to say he looks like a pretty good pitcher. Iwakuma started the game with a low-90’s fastball for a called strike and over the next nine Iwakuma threw a slider, curve, slider, change, change, fastball, fastball, fastball, and slider. That’s doing a good job of mixing pitches.

Iwakuma generated five swinging strikes and a 7:1 groundout to flyout ratio while cruising through 6 innings on 69 pitches. The most impressive thing remained how Iwakuma rotated through his pitches efficiently, using five pitches – each at least 10% of the time. 33% fastballs, 15% changes, 28% sliders, 13% curves, and 10% splitters. Iwakuma’s five swinging strikes came with these sequences:

Frederich Cepeda: first pitch change, next pitch fastball.

Ariel Pestano: second pitch splitter after a first pitch slider in the dirt, next pitch fastball.

Leslie Anderson: second, third, and seventh pitches, after a first pitch splitter, then a slider, then a change, next pitch was a fastball, then three consecutive splitters.

Iwakuma repeated pitches at least twice in a row only 21 times, three times in a row once, and four times in a row once. Either Iwakuma freestyles on the mound or his catcher, Kenji Johjima, loves mixing things up. Given Felix Hernandez obsession with his fastball, I’m going to start calling Iwakuma “Andre 3000”.

Temptation is always highest when mystery shrouds the subject. Rarely is the fulfillment worth the bewilderment, but there are always exceptions. Meet Yu Darvish, the lanky, 6’5” 22-year-old phenom who doubles as one of the Japanese team’s aces. A baseball site without a single mention of Darvish is about as common as the dodo bird. Darvish is more than the new Daisuke Matsuzaka, he’s the new Sidd Finch.

Except Darvish actually breathes.

While the results were shaky early on, Darvish flashed fine velocity. Seven consecutive fastballs opened the game with an average velocity just shy of 95 miles per hour. Darvish would top out at 96.9 MPH, but failed to see his velocity drop too much as he reached the 85 pitch mark. Darvish’s final 10 fastballs recorded an average of 92.95 MPH.

Although Darvish did throw 42 two-seam fastballs, he also threw a pitch that registered as a four seamer and a cutter. Throw in an unhittable slider and curveball, and Darvish has most pitchers his age beat in both quantity and quality. Here’s a look at Darvish’s stuff by movement:

Let’s focus in on that slider. Darvish tossed it 18 times an had the following results: ball, ball, ball, ball, called strike, called strike, called strike, ball, ball, hit, swinging strike, called strike, in play out, ball, called strike, swinging strike, swinging strike, and finally swinging strike. That’s 4/18 swinging strikes, or 22% total, and of those who actually dared to swing, Darvish recorded 4/6 whiffs, or nearly 70%.

Why was Darvish’s slider so untouchable? Harry Pavlidis – one of the best PitchFx imagery creators around – created a pair of flight paths showing Darvish’s pitches from an overhead and first base view. Both of those images can be viewed here. Pretty much everything bends or breaks in tantalizing fashion.

Yes, it’s only 85 pitches, but Darvish looked every bit as good as advertised.

If David Price’s chances of making the Rays opening day rotation weren’t slim before, they are now. Price entered his second outing of the spring Monday night with high expectations – given that the game was being shown as a simulcast on MLB Network didn’t help – and for the first time in his career disappointed.

It’s not that Price allowed a few hits and a few runs, but instead a hodgepodge of various other things. Price’s fastball command was a bit off and his vaunted slider was missing. Oh, and do not forget the absence of anything resembling a changeup. Price would come out after the game and admit that his slider has “[Gone] away from [him].” Music to every Rays fans’ ears, right? Well, the good news is that Price was likely headed to Triple-A anyways, and should be able to work on “finding” it again along with a third pitch. Somewhat amusingly, the whole ideology behind Price starting the season in Durham was to refine his changeup and now he’s back to square one.

Price’s admission along with the demotion of Carlos Hernandez and Mitch Talbot leaves Jason Hammel and Jeff Niemann as the front runners for the Rays final rotation slot. Niemann is not scheduled to make a start this week, but will pitch in relief. It’s easy to write that off, but it seems a bit coincidental that the Rays are finally going to their regular season rotation and it doesn’t feature Niemann.

Both are out of options, and with Price’s fulltime arrival pending towards April/May, it might make more sense for the Rays to place the pitcher they plan on keeping in the bullpen. Allowing the other to build up trade value through starting since the difference between Hammel and Niemann through a handful of starts is near negligible.

Another day and another international starting pitcher PitchFx post. This time let’s focus on Korea’s Hyunjin Ryu. Appropriately, Ryu is wearing number 99 during the tournament to add an extra layer of mystique, Dennis Rodman/Ron Artest style.

Not to be confused with fellow countryman and San Diego Padres starter Jae Kuk Ryu, this Ryu is a 6’2” lefty with a birth date of March 25th, 1987. That means he’s nearly 22-years-old and looked considerably more impressive than Araldis Chapman. For one, Ryu featured a more consistent release point with his pitches and displayed a better sense of control, issuing a walk in two and two-thirds innings pitched. Ryu did allow five hits, all singles, and struck three hitters out.

Ryu’s arsenal featured a fastball that broke in to lefties while sitting 89-91 and topping out at 93 miles per hour. A change-up, slider, curveball, and splitter. Let’s look at his movement chart:

Ryu’s fastball varies in speed enough with his splitter and change-up to cause some recognition issues for batters. Ryu’s curveball and slider break away from lefties as you would expect, and his curve really dives off the table at a – by comparison – slow-moving 75 miles per hour.

Again, Ryu’s potential MLB status is hardly predictable. I suppose there’s a chance down the road, but that’s some time away so there’s no sense in penciling him in as someone’s ace in 2010.

Perhaps it was only fitting that Daisuke Matsuzaka opposed team Cuba on Sunday. The nearly mythical Aroldis Chapman took the hill for Cuba facing a similar situation to that of Matsuzaka in the inaugural World Baseball Classic; the glorious unknown with a hype machine all to his own. Cuba’s Loch Ness monster displayed his excellent velocity and lack of control through 44 pitches.

Chapman’s debut on American soil was shortened by a patient lineup, forcing three walks in only two and a third innings. The 21-year-old left-hander will be remembered for his velocity readings as much as anything since he threw more than 70% fastballs and recorded an average velocity of 93 miles per hour. On his 12th pitch of the afternoon Chapman hit triple digits with a staggering 100.2 miles per hour. As the game’s announcers noted – in between giving us updates on Chapman’s LiveJournal mood – Chapman has apparently hit 102 miles per hour in Cuban competition.

If you’re wondering why I’m not discussing Chapman’s off-speed stuff much, that’s because he didn’t throw much of it it. Chapman’s slider seems to have potential with excellent bend. It’s simply a matter of harnessing control and command of the pitch. Something that may or may not happen. Below you’ll see a movement chart with each of Gameday’s classified pitches listed. I’m sure you’ll notice his “cutter” looks a lot like his slider, same with his “curve”, meaning there’s likely an error in classification.

A 21-year-old left-hander with an efficient pickoff move, long limbs, and probably not the best of instruction, Chapman certainly has some room to grow. Whether we ever see him in the American major leagues or not is unknown, but he’s certainly someone to watch in international competition.

That might be the best part about the WBC.

Some interesting observations from the career leaderboards

Larry Walker (with only ~400 more plate appearances) ranks higher than Mark McGwire. Throw in defense and positional considerations and there’s a legitimate case to make that Walker was the more valuable player despite lacking the accolades and popularity of McGwire. If you consider McGwire a Hall of Famer, I think you have to include Walker as one too.

Manny Ramirez could potentially break into the top 15 over the next two seasons and should pass Billy Hamilton for 20th all-time this season. Alex Rodriguez is likely to pass Carl Yastrzemski for 24th all-time as Rodriguez essentially tails Manny.

Brian Giles will never replace Tony Gwynn as Mr. Padre, but Giles one-upped Gwynn last season by accumulating 393 career wRAA, one more than Gwynn. Speaking of misters, Ernie Banks sits two runs above Sammy Sosa.

Jay Buhner and Ray Lankford rank back-to-back. I think that is appropriate.

Dusty Baker and John Kruk rank back-to-back. I think that is appropriate.

A former Yankees first baseman and a new Yankees first baseman take slots 329 and 330 as John Mayberry and Mark Teixeira sit just shy of 200 career runs.

Albert Pujols has the chance to pass Shoeless Joe Jackson, Wade Boggs, Duke Snider, George Brett, and Reggie Jackson within the next season. Pujols needs about 60 wRAA to crack the top 50 all-time. CHONE has Pujols projected at 63 wRAA, ZiPS is about the same, and Marcels says 47. In other words; there’s a real, real good chance it happens this year.

Bill Bergen, Alfredo Griffin, Ozzie Guillen, Tommy Corcoran, and Tommy Thevenow round out the list as the worst hitters. The lesson to be taken from this is to simply not name your son Tommy.

Oh, and how’s this for fun. If Evan Longoria wants to break Babe Ruth’s all-time wRAA record, he needs to get a move on. It would take Longoria about 70 consecutive seasons of Longoria’s 2008 to reach Ruth. Longoria figures to top Ruth and celebrate a 100th birthday within the same decade.

So, Gene Kingsale had an interesting night.

Only a half inning removed from a crucial misplay in the field, Kingsale stepped to the plate with the Netherlands trailing by a run and the tying run on third. Naturally, as in all tales of redemption, Kingsale ended up tying the game with a liner to right. To make things even better for the journeyman, Kingsale advanced to third following an error on Carlos Marmol, and eventually scored the winning run on an error by Willy Aybar.

On a Netherlands team that features mostly minor leaguers who may never see the lights of a major league stadium again after their WBC experience, there are a few former major leaguers.

Enter Randall Simon, Sidney Ponson, and Kingsale.

Everyone knows about Simon’s hot dog antics or Ponson’s obsession with beer brats. Can that same thing be said about Kingsale? The answer to that is almost certainly no despite Kingsale boasting a somewhat interesting tale.

In 1996, as a 19-year-old, Kingsale broke into the majors with Baltimore as a center fielder. A few opportunity deprived and offensively challenged seasons later, Kingsale would be claimed off waivers by the Mariners where he would spend small parts of two seasons. Kingsale joined the Padres in 2003 until his release a few months later. Kingsale would eventually find some playing time with Detroit in 2003, but spent 2004 and 2005 in the minors.

The story is interesting when you consider how many 19-year-olds find the majors and encounter close to zero success at the major league level. Dave covered the 19-year-olds with at least 100 at-bats in late January and found that essentially every player who pulled the feat was successful in some capacity. Kingsale didn’t receive 100 at-bats prior to his 20th birthday, in fact, he received zero. Even so, only one positive season of wRAA?

I guess that makes last night all the sweeter for Gene Kingsale.

Going back to the WBC well, has anyone noticed the overabundance of bunting during the tournament thus far?

During the U.S.A. versus Venezuela game Sunday night, Jimmy Rollins lead the game off with a double, putting the U.S. in prime position to take an early lead with Dustin Pedroia, Chipper Jones, and Kevin Youkilis due up. Naturally, Pedroia – the reigning American League Most Valuable Player and the guy with a career .366 wOBA and 20 bunt attempts – bunted … well, tried to at least. The bunt failed, resulting in Rollins being picked off second. The blunder promptly eliminated the baserunner and gave Armando Galarraga enough wiggle room to escape the inning without damage.

Now obviously that’s a bit of an extreme. Not every bunt fails, but most bunts do result in outs. In case some people needed to be reminded: outs are bad.

In the 8th inning of yesterday’s Japan versus Korea game, team Japan trailed by one in the 8th inning. Ichiro Suzuki singled with one out. Ichiro is capable of stealing bases. In fact, as Jeff Sullivan appropriately highlighted, Ichiro excels at stealing bases in high leverage situations. It’s fair to say Ichiro is a smart and rather good baserunner, something team Japan should know, but naturally Ichiro was disallowed the chance to steal. Chang
Yong Lim threw to first upon entering the game, trying to keep Ichiro close, and on the next pitch Hiroyuki Nakajima bunted a pitch foul. Nakajima tried again and succeeded on the third pitch, allowing Ichiro to advance to second with two outs in the inning.

The next batter, Norichika Aoki, pushed ahead in the count 2-0 before grounding out to the pitcher and promptly ending the inning. Team Japan lost 1-0. Now I’m not sure the average run environments of the WBC, but using Tom Tango’s run expectancy chart, you can see that a runner on first with one out is expected to wield 0.573 runs. A runner on second with two outs is expected to result in 0.344 runs.

Okay, so maybe playing for one run isn’t a bad idea down by one in the 8th inning, but with two outs, a batter up who – small sample alert – has an OPS over 1.410 in this tournament, and one of the best base stealers in the world on first base, wouldn’t it make a bit more sense to not bunt?

More examples of bunting gone wayward came in last night’s Netherlands versus Puerto Rico affair.

In the 7th inning, and trailing by one run, Puerto Rico shortstop Mikes Aviles doubled to right field, putting the leadoff man on second with the bottom of the order due up. Yadier Molina bunted the first pitch he saw and rather than advance Aviles to third with one out, bunted too hard, giving first baseman Randall Simon the opportunity to look Aviles back to second. A pitch in the next at-bat hit Alex Cora, and then Jesus Feliciano had an infield single. Ramon Vazquez and Carlos Beltran both recorded outs, leaving the bases loaded. There’s no way of knowing what result would’ve followed if Molina successfully moves Aviles over or if Molina is allowed to swing, so I’ll withhold on speculation.

The Puerto Rican team saw two straight batters walk, setting the stage for Pudge Rodriguez – who has absolutely dominated in the tournament. The opposing team is struggling to throw strikes and Jose Oquendo asks Pudge attempt and bunt – giving up an out in the process – until he falls behind 1-2. This is with nobody out, two one, and one of the better hitting catchers facing less competition. Pudge lines the next pitch foul and then strikes out swinging, leaving Aviles to attempt and tie the game. Naturally, the Netherlands pitcher continues the walking trend and walks Aviles on five pitcher and Yadier Molina drives in two with a line drive double.

It’s not that managers are willing to bunt, rather that they’re bunting in poor situations that have adverse effects on their teams chances of scoring. With so many first time managers, the trend is a bit discouraging. The WBC might succeed in expanding the borders of the game, but the boundaries that have held managers back for years remain unaltered.

One of the talking points during World Baseball Classic action has been Moises Alou and his winding career. Alou will reportedly retire after the tournament, but for now is the captain of the Dominican Republic team that his father, Felipe, manages. With over 7,900 career plate appearances coming with the Pirates, Expos, Marlins, Astros, Cubs, Giants, and Mets, Alou has quite the storied career. Let’s focus on his top five games (as ranked by WPA) since 2002.

1. 9/20/05 Giants @ Nationals .819 WPA

Not often can a pitcher work nine innings while allowing only four hits and end up with a loss and negative win probability added, but that’s just what Livan Hernandez did on this September night and all thanks to Alou. Batting fifth behind Barry Bonds, Alou struck out swinging and grounded out in his first two at-bats. In the seventh inning with the Giants trailing 2-1, Alou would single to center, but then tagged out at second following a Ray Durham line out. Alou would get one more at-bat, this coming in the ninth inning. Omar Vizquel and Barry Bonds would both walk, bringing Alou up with the tying run on second and two men out. On Livan Hernandez’ 123rd pitch of the night, Moises would homer to left, giving the Giants the lead and after a shaky ninth from Armando Benitez, the win. The Giants lineup combined for .385 WPA that night, Alou had .819 himself, Bonds was second with .139, and then only Vizquel finished in the positive with .013.

2. 4/16/04 Cubs v. Reds .558 WPA

The final score says it all about this game; 11-10. Alou would finish with five at-bats, four hits, two homeruns, and a .558 WPA. In what amounted to a shootout, the Cubs would trail the Reds entering the top of the 9th with closer Joe Borowski on the mound. Borowski would walk the leadoff hitter and record two consecutive outs before loading the bases with Ryan Freel up. A flyout to right later, the Cubs would have a chance to tie it with sluggers Sammy Sosa and Alou due up. Danny Graves would enter and get ahead of Sosa 1-2 before seeing three of the next four pitches hit foul. Another ball set the count full, and on the ninth pitch of the at-bat Sosa deposited a ball into the right field bleachers, tying the game. Alou would take a ball and then promptly hammer a pitch to left field, giving the Cubs the win in one of the more offensive games in recent memory.

3. 5/19/04 Cubs v. Giants .437 WPA

Alou’s day started out ho hum. A first inning flyball to deep center, fourth inning groundout, and sixth inning flyball set the stage for Alou’s fourth plate appearance of the day, in which he walked on six pitches. Alou would get one more chance in the bottom of the 10th and would make the most of it. Jim Brower would enter with the intent of getting Alou out. Brower succeeded in having Alou go out, but unfortunately for the Giants Alou’s act involved the ball also landing in the seats, giving the Cubs yet another win in walk off fashion.

4. 9/26/06 Giants v. Diamondbacks .374 WPA

Randy Choate would replace Brandon Webb in the bottom of the 9th in a tied game and sit Omar Vizquel down and hit Todd Linden on six pitches. It would only take Brandon Lyon a third of that to end the game, as Moises Alou hit a homer to left field on Lyon’s second pitch of the game.

5. 6/29/02 Cubs @ White Sox .372 WPA

This is one of the rare games on this list where Alou’s team failed to win. Naturally, it wasn’t because of Alou. A 4-4 day with two homeruns resulted in only two runs as Fred McGriff and Sammy Sosa combined to reach base in only two of their nine plate appearances.

No matter if you’re Tommy Lasorda or not a fan of the World Baseball Classic, you have to admit it’s nice having competitive baseball around. I was lucky enough to catch the United States of America team play against Team Canada earlier Saturday and much to my pleasure, 20-year-old Phillippe Aumont got involved in the action.

Aumont is a former first round pick by the Seattle Mariners who saw his first exposure to pro ball in 2008. In 55.2 innings for the Wisconsin Timber Rattlers, Aumont posted a 3.58 FIP while striking out more than eight per nine and walking around three per nine. As far as first impressions go, Aumont pretty much nailed it.

He only threw 21 pitches (13 fastballs, 8 slurves) but his average fastball sat near 96 miles per hour with solid movement. I could sit here and write out how impressive Aumont’s stuff looked or how consistent he mixed speeds, but how about I just show you using Pitchfx data?

The strike zone and velocity graphs are pretty self explanatory, so I’ll focus on the movement. You should notice the two clusters of pitches, one in the upper left quadrant and the other in the bottom right quadrant. It’s pretty clear which set of pitches are Aumont’s fastballs and which are his slurves. An exercise I would encourage is looking at the velocity chart and imagining how the USA batters like Kevin Youkilis felt seeing:

First pitch: 95 miles per hour fastball that breaks in.
Second pitch: Power slurve breaking away.
Third pitch: Another slurve.

I’m not a prospects expert, but Aumont looked pretty damn impressive today.