Tony LaRussa still has a fetish for lefty relievers.

Yesterday the Cardinals signed Dennys Reyes for two years and three million. The long-time Twins LOOGY joins quite a collection of lefties already in camp for the Cardinals, which raises the question: why did the Cardinals see it necessary to add another?

The only St Louis lefty entrenched in a gig is Trever Miller, with a battle occurring between Ian Ostlund, Charlie Manning, Royce Ring, and Katsuhiko Maekawa. That seems like a decent collection of potentially useful lefty relievers and at cheap prices. Unfortunately, the Cardinals have yet to see something in spring training from the grouping, or at least something that would inspire confidence.

Rather than waiting it out the Cardinals went out and added another free agent. As Viva El Birdos covered yesterday, Reyes was one of three talented lefties available on the market, alongside Will Ohman and Joe Beimel. The difference between the trio likely came down to asking price, to which Reyes apparently fit the bill.

Over the last three years Reyes has posted win values of: 0.6, 0.1, and 1.1. That’s not too shabby, considering 2007’s low total came alongside Reyes worst FIP and subsequently the lowest workload (29 innings, 17 less than 2008 and 21 less than 2006). Reyes’ raw numbers should improve in St. Louis as long as LaRussa avoids the pitfalls of Ron Gardenhire’s usage: right-handers. Reyes was used nearly 50% of the time against righties in 2006, 41% in 2007, and 46% in 2008.

Reyes’ strong point is success against lefties, and while he’s not a complete liability versus righties, there’s just nothing to be gained from letting him face more than the occasional weak hitter in any kind of meaningful situation.

Frankly, I’m not sure if they didn’t give up on the ragtag combination a little too hastily, but at the price, and for the quality Reyes brings, it’s probably not worth the fuss.

One of the shows the MLB Network has in abundance is a series called “Prime 9”. It’s your garden variety “lists” show, only devoted to baseball-centric topics. One of them that I caught recently was on players who “coulda been great”. J.R. Richard was one of those featured, and his numbers warrant a mention.

Beginning in 1975 and running through 1980, Richard had a streak of throwing least 110 innings annually. During that time, Richard failed to post a FIP over 3.5, and actually had a few sub-2.5 seasons and one sub-2 season. Nolan Ryan signed with the Astros as a free agent for the 1980 season, giving the Astros a heck of a one-two punch, but Richard would miss half the season. Richard noted discomfort in his throwing arm and shoulder, yet was criticized as a whiner. In July, Richard would suffer a stroke and would later need to undergo surgery to unclog a blockage.

Richard would never pitch in a major league game again.

Often, fans and media members praise players for playing through pain and injury. Players who choose to sit out are labeled as fragile, soft, or simply as guys who don’t care about the game or winning. In reality, the “warriors” are actually hurting their team if they play with a performance-affecting injury, yet you would never know it by the praise thrown his way.

Obviously not all injuries are actually the signs of strokes or something worse, but the players know their bodies better than most. If such player says he can’t go today because of a sore wrist then it’s probably for the best if he doesn’t play that day. Some players in the past may have embellished injuries, but trying to judge motives is a slippery slope.

In the future, be careful of who you label as “guys with big hearts”, one might actually have one.

People are going to hype this move as the Rays “adding an established closer” and such, but here’s a fun game, tell me who Player A is in this comparison:

Jason Isringhausen last three seasons, average win value: -0.2
Player A last three seasons, average win value: -0.3*

Izzy’s fastball has remained between 91-92 on average along with a high-80s cutter and a high-70s curveball. To his credit, Isringhausen does have a history of inducing groundballs and oddly two of the past three years have seen an uncharacteristically high amount of homeruns. Whether that’s due to Isringhausen or simply a luck thing is a guess at this point. Isringhausen’s strikeout rates have been right around his career average as of late, but recently inflated walk rates and homerun rates have sunk his efforts.

Over the last three seasons Izzy has K/9 of: 7.59, 7.44, and 8.02 to go along with BB/9 of: 4.64, 3.86, and 5.86. The homeruns really do stand out, since Izzy allowed 1.05, 0.55, and 1.54 over the last three years. For a pitcher with a career HR/9 of 0.71, that just screams oddity.
There’s a loose chance Isringhausen opens the season in the Rays bullpen, but it seems more likely that he heads to Durham, shows that he can sustain some level of health, and then finds an opening around the mid-season point, perhaps due to an injury or general ineffectiveness.

On a minor league deal, and for substantially less – the deal is worth 2 million max — than what a certain similar reliever is making, you can’t hate this deal. The Rays continue to add potentially useful depth in their minor league system with low-risk, medium reward types. Morgan Ensberg, Adam Kennedy, the boat of middle relief types, and Isringhausen may or may not add value to the 2009 Rays, but you can’t fault the thought process behind any of these moves, regardless of the result.

*Player A is Troy Percival

For the last few weeks the big news around Juan Cruz has been speculation surrounding a sign-and-trade deal involving the Arizona Diamondbacks and Minnesota Twins. Understandably, the Diamondbacks wanted fair value in return for their cooperation since Cruz is a Type-A free agent, the D-Backs would receive either a first or second round pick in June’s draft depending on the team that signed Cruz. At the same time, Arizona couldn’t risk having Cruz sit out through the draft and get absolutely nothing in return so they agreed today to a…wait, that’s…that’s Dayton Moore’s music!

Yep, the Kansas City General Manager swooped in and signed Cruz to a two-year contract worth six million. It’s a fine deal considering Cruz’ level of performance over the past few seasons in which he’s been worth a little more than a half of a win as a non-crucial reliever. That is to say that Cruz was not used in high leverage situations, something that will help his value – assuming he continues pitching well.

Over the last two years, Cruz has been used exclusively as a reliever. In 2007, Cruz recorded a 3.7 FIP, and 3.62 FIP in 2008 despite an increase in walks. CHONE absolutely loves Cruz, projecting a 3.2 FIP while Marcels has him at 3.99. Let’s say the midpoint is more realistic, meaning Cruz will be a set-up man with a 3.6 FIP. That’s worth three million annually.

Any article reviewing this move isn’t complete without a mention of the deal the Royals signed Kyle Farnsworth earlier this off-season, but I’d rather discuss the draft pick implications. The Royals pick within the first half of the first round, which means the Diamondbacks will receive their second round pick – number 58 according to River Ave Blues. Not quite what the Diamondbacks were hoping for, but all things considered, it’s probably better than the alternatives.

Dave mentioned this tidbit yesterday, but I figured I would expand on it.

The first game of spring training usually serves as a dress rehearsal. The starters – those who are not partaking in the World Baseball Classic or injured – wave to the home crowd, play an inning or two in the field – just long enough to get a plate appearance — then call it a day. This leads to lineups that resemble the team’s Triple-A squad. Naturally, this leads to some rather lopsided match-ups if the other team has a legitimate starting pitcher on the mound.

But how about three in one game?

That’s what Dusty Baker threw the American League champions yesterday. The Rays christening of their new spring home didn’t quite go to plan. Joe Maddon followed the aforementioned tradition, running out such wunderkinds as Jon Weber, Ray Olmedo, Chris Richard, and Elliot Johnson. Heck, the Rays even started former Houston Astros’ starter Carlos Hernandez. So imagine the results when the Cincinnati Reds started Edinson Volquez, brought Jonny Cueto in to relieve Volquez, then handed the game to Homer Bailey.

Unsurprisingly, the trio would plow through a ragtag lineup, totaling seven innings of two-hit ball while walking two and striking eight out. Aaron Fultz and Jared Burton would close the game out, holding the Rays to four hits, six baserunners, and zero runs.

At least one thing went well for the Rays as Carl Crawford, the longtime face of the franchise, recorded the first hit in Charlotte Sports Park.

A common discussion point this off-season is the length of dollar amount of the contracts handed out during free agency. Given the unfortunate economic climate, naturally interest is high in the amount of dollars and years agreed upon by teams and players alike. Underneath you’ll find three scatter plots that cover each of the past three off-seasons. Thanks to ESPN’s free agent tracker I’ve compiled every major league contract agreed to during the off-season and plotted them based on length and value.



If it looks like MLB teams have became more hesitant to sign players to 5-plus year contracts, it’s because they have. In 2006, teams combined for six deals of 5-years length, only three have been given out since. There have been six 5+ year contracts over the last two years, and 10 in 2006. Obviously, this assumes the amount of players worthy of 5+ year deals has remained consistent, something we can check thanks to our Win Value metric.

Looking at purely the “contract” year value is misleading, so we’re going to include an average of their three year data as well.

There are a few extension/re-signing types (the Yankees class of 2007) but otherwise you should notice the abundance of class of ‘08s within the top 10 most valuable free agents. That eradicates the idea that 2008 had a weaker free agent class, and raises the question: why have teams withheld longer contracts recently? Is this a sign of smarter spending, or simply a coincidence?

In 2006, teams gave out 57 years and 785M to those top 10 free agents. Those numbers dropped to 43 years and 726M in 2007, and 43 years and 700M in 2008. Yet that’s counterintuitive, given we know that teams were paying roughly 3.7M per win in 2006, 4.1M per win in 2007, and 4.5M per win in 2008. It would appear that teams are no longer overspending on players like Jeff Suppan.

Whether it means signing shorter term deals or simply paying market worth it’s obvious that teams have at least gotten a bit more efficient in the usage of their free agent dollars.,

One of the last standing California Angels has officially moved on. Garret Anderson and Ken Griffey Jr. were subjects of multiple rumors over the past few weeks as both were sought after by Atlanta and Seattle. After Griffey and Seattle eliminated half of the options, Anderson and the Braves found themselves in each other arms, regardless of their prior preferences. In the end, it makes more sense for all parties involved.

Atlanta may have wanted Griffey’s bat and intangibles, but landing Anderson for one-year and only 2.5 million is a pretty nice cap the Braves off-season additions. Anderson is no longer capable of offensive outbursts like the ones in 2002 and 2003, but his bat isn’t made of animal spirits either. A declining ISO and walk rate have left Anderson dependant on his batting average and occasional power. Glance at Anderson’s O-Swing% and you’ll see an increase in hacks, backed by a decrease amount of swings inside of the zone.

Dewan has Anderson at -2, -6, and 0 plays over the past three years while UZR says -3.6, -1.8, and 9.3 runs. Average those numbers out and you’re looking at an average corner outfielder. CHONE has Anderson worth -2 wRAA next season while Marcels says -6.1 and Oliver says -1. That’s an average of -3 wRAA, assuming he’s a touch better as a part-timer and we’ll call him league average. Throw that together while assuming Anderson will see ~70% of the playing time in a traditional platoon and Anderson should be worth around a win.

Interesting off-season for Atlanta with the Anderson and Tom Glavine moves adding to an off-season in which they added Derek Lowe, Javier Vazquez, Kenshin Kawakami, and reserve catcher David Ross.

Indians acquire Juan Salas from Rays for Isaias Velasquez

One of the longer-tenured players in the Rays organization, Salas signed as an international free agent in 1998 as a third baseman. In 2004, Salas converted to pitching and had an impressive streak of 34 scoreless innings for Double-A Montgomery in 2006. Salas broke into the Rays pen in 2007 and was amongst their more reliable relievers until being suspended for 50 games following a positive drugs test. Salas is 30-years-old, but his minor league strikeout rates suggest he’s got a chance of being decent if given the chance. He throws two pitches heavily – a cutter and a fastball – along with a slider, but his velocity isn’t quite what it was at one point.

Velasquez has an interesting name and plays second base. Another former undrafted free agent, Velasquez hit .281/.368/.343 in the New York-Penn League last season Over the last two seasons he’s produced wRAAs of 3.5, with varying wOBAs. Velasquez has maintained a decent walk rate while showing little-to-no power.

Diamondbacks claim Robert Korecky

29-year-old Korecky made his debut last season for the Twins, but his recently strong strikeout rates bombed while his walk and homerun rates crept upward. Korecky used a low-90s fastball nearly 60% of the time while mixing in a slider and sprinkling a change-up occasionally. The Backs aren’t losing much here whether Korecky works out or flames out.

Royals claim Timothy Hulett

It appears there no Mariner infielder is safe from Dayton Moore this off-season. “Tug” Hulett’s player page amusingly calls him a DH, but that’s not a mistake, Hulett actually did DH in eight games last season despite being a middle infielder in the minors. Hulett is short and basically everything you’d imagine from a utility infielder type.

For the second consecutive day, I’m talking about the Rays infield. Yesterday it was the addition of Adam Kennedy via minor league contract, and today it’s Willy Aybar signing an extension. The exact terms are two years and 2.3 million with a club option for a third year and a few escalators thrown in that could make Aybar’s deal worth 6 million. Frankly, that looks like a pretty good deal for the Rays.

A while back I evaluated Aybar’s value, saying he’s a ~1.5 win player on the Rays and likely a ~2.5 win player elsewhere simply based on the playing time he’ll be robbed of on a loaded team. That put his projected first year of arbitration value at 2.7 million, and somehow the Rays are getting him at 2.3 million for not only this year, but an additional season as well.

The question becomes, how in the world are the Rays going to find playing time for Aybar? Carlos Pena and Evan Longoria have the corner infield positions on lockdown. The addition of Pat Burrell should take away the option of Aybar acting as the team’s designated hitter on certain days unless the Rays do something silly like play Burrell in the field. Last year, Aybar saw time in place of the injured Pena and Longoria, even starting the season as the Rays third baseman before a hamstring injury struck him down.

There’s a chance Aybar could get some reps in the middle infield as well, but otherwise one of Joe Maddon’s toughest assignments this year will be finding consistent playing time for Aybar. When finding playing time for a ~1.5-2 win player is one of your so-called toughest assignments, you know you’re running a good team.

Matthew covered Adam Kennedy’s release just over a week ago, and wrapped it up by asking:

Either way, Adam Kennedy is now out of a job and doesn’t come with the Type A penalty that Orlando Hudson does. It will be interesting to see what kind of market develops for his services given that he’s already being paid for this season by the Cardinals assuming no trade is worked out and he gets fully released. At that point, Kennedy probably shops around for the best chance to receive playing time and/or win a championship depending on his personal priorities because it’s highly unlikely any team would offer him more than the $4 million he would need to benefit out of the process.

Well, not only has the market developed, but there’s actually no need for one anymore. Last night Kennedy signed a minor league deal with the Tampa Bay Rays, reuniting him with former Anaheim Angels bench coach Joe Maddon. As Matthew noted, Kennedy likely shopped around for more playing time, and when he found those options lacking or perhaps unattractive, he turned his attention to winning, and therefore the Rays.

Of course, there’s a chance Kennedy could become the Rays main reserve middle infielder. Willy Aybar played some second base last season, but the team seems to like him more at the corners and an occasional game where he DHs. That leaves Ben Zobrist – a poor fielder – and minor league types such as Ray Olmedo, Elliot Johnson, or a still developing Reid Brignac being called upon if Akinori Iwamura or Jason Bartlett fall to injury.

At next to no cost, it’s hard to not like this move for the Rays. With the addition of Morgan Ensberg and now Kennedy, the Rays have taken infield depth seriously when handing out minor league deals, and held the idea of rejuvenation dear to their hearts.