Blue Jays sign Kevin Millar (minor league deal)

Can you tell the Jays are budget strapped yet? Millar is coming off of an exceptionally poor season with the Orioles driven by a lackluster .249 batting average on balls in play. Millar has a decent enough shot of breaking camp with the Jays, given their lack of designated hitters and desire to push Lyle Overbay. Of course, Millar hardly fits the bill as a platoon player since he lacks a dominant split and he’s simply not good enough to be a regular. The best case involves Millar being worth a win to the major league team.

Rockies sign Franklin Nunez, Randy Flores, and Kurt Birkins (minor league deals)

The Nunez’ signing can be accredited to at least one dominating performance in the Dominican Winter League. Nunez has spent time in the Atlanta, Milwaukee, and Tampa Bay organizations amongst others and the last time we saw Nunez in the majors he threw absolute heat, registering at 96 miles per hour in 2005. Troubles with free passes usually capsize Nunez’ FIP, but he gets a fair amount of groundballs, which makes him a delightful no-risk signing for the Rockies.

Birkins also spent time with Tampa Bay and could work as a left-handed specialist, he’ll likely compete against Randy Flores.

Mariners claim Luis Pena off waivers

Jack Zduriencik takes another former Brewer. Pena was waived to make room for the addition addressed below and is another layer to the Mariners bullpen casserole. Pena’s strikeout rates are fair and his walk rates decent with the exception of 2006 and 2008. He might not be on the Mariners roster on opening day, but Pena’s a nice arm to have just an injury or implosion away, even if most of his innings come in garbage time. I wonder if the Mariners will claim Juan Salas who was recently designated for assignment?

Brewers claim Nick Green off waivers

No, not the scrappy utility player, instead the former Angels starting pitching prospect. Lately, green has had a mixed bag of results. In 2006 he struggled during an introductory period to Double-A competition, getting stomped to a 5.11 FIP. Upon repeating the course in 2007 Green saw his FIP drop to 3.90. Naturally, 2008 would have him post a 5.21 FIP in Triple-A, but the Brewers saw something they liked here. Perhaps a total disregard for the homerun numbers, given the ballpark.

Yankees sign Brett Tomko (minor league deal)

Sometimes teams make fascinating finds in the minor league free agent findings that cause them to bless MLB’s lack of re-entry waivers. This is not one of those findings, although to be fair he’s not as bad as you would think. Of course, Tomko has combined for just a little over 300 innings since 2006, but ratios are fine minus the homeruns. With Ian Kennedy and Phillip Hughes sitting around it’s hard to see Tomko making any starts, but I have sneaking suspicion he’ll make at least one appearance for the Yankees in 2009.

Sometimes managers just don’t make sense. Meet Jerry Manuel and read his latest quotes to SI.com.

“This is not about statistical success. This is about winning as a team, and you have to put people in positions that you feel is best to win as a team,” Manuel said during a 40-minute news conference, one day before New York’s first official workout for pitchers and catchers.

I would argue that winning is a statistical success, whether it be as a team or individual. There’s no arguing against Manuel’s point on the manager putting players in positions they have the best chance to succeed, and therefore giving the team the best chance to win. That’s just common sense.

“Whether that means [Jose Reyes] batting second, third, whatever — first or leading off — you have to accomplish that. And that’s a big part of the message throughout spring training: The game takes precedent over individual stats.”

Oh that trickster Jose Reyes. He only wants to lead off to boost his individual stats, like plate appearances.

“If we could lead [Luis Castillo] off, which is probably best for him, it might be something that we’ll have to do because it’s for him,” Manuel said. “We have to give him the best possible chances for success in order to get his year behind him.

Wait, what? Didn’t Manuel just say that “[The] game takes precedent over individual stats,” and now he’s saying “[Which] is probably best for him, it might be something that we’ll have to do because it’s for him.”

Uh…

“We have to give him the best possible chances for success in order to get his year behind him.”

Um.

So the game’s not about individual stats, statistical success, or anything like that, and yet Manuel and the Mets really need Luis Castillo to hit leadoff because it’s good for him and so he can put his last season – an unsuccessful statistical season – behind him. That doesn’t make a lick of sense, and it’s undermining Manuel’s point about winning.

There is not a person alive who thinks Castillo is a better hitter than Reyes. Over the last three years, Castillo has gotten on base at a .358 clip, that’s slightly better than Reyes 0.355. Compare their slugging percentages, where Reyes’ lowest is .421 and Castillo’s highest is .362, and there’s just no contest on who should be getting more plate appearances.

If the Mets want to go to a more OBP conscious leadoff hitter, that’s fine. Hitting Reyes second or third in favor of Carlos Beltran makes sense. Throw David Wright behind those two and you have quite the top of the lineup. Batting Luis Castillo first is taking away plate appearances from your best hitters. Not enough to make a difference, but if Manuel is serious about winning, shouldn’t he be utilizing every asset of the game to its max in order to help his cause?

All are minor league deals.

Marlins sign Kiko Calero

Calero disappeared from the baseball map due to rotator cuff issues, causing him to miss multiple months. There’s not a ton to base Calero’s potential moving forward on, he did see some time in the Rangers farm system, pitching poorly but at least showing the ability to strike batters out. Historically, Calero is a slight flyball pitcher, and at such a low-risk, why not?

Rockies sign Scott Munter

2008 is exactly what you expect from Munter. A 4.25 and 4.05 FIP split between the Giants and Rays Triple-A team comes close to matching his major league totals. The key difference being an inverse in walk and strikeout rates for the better. Munter’s key to the majors is continuing to produce groundballs.

Tigers sign Ruddy Lugo

Well, there were rumors of a Lugo landing in Detroit, just not this one. Ruddy went from a moderately successful reliever to a decent starter within one off-season. After flashing extreme control problems, Lugo’s peripherals looked a lot better, even in extended work. The only problem seemed to be with the homerun. Lugo can fake being a slightly above replacement level starter and a decent reliever, assuming he doesn’t become walk happy again.

Red Sox sign Brad Wilkerson

Wilkerson’s homerun rates were down while his infield fly and groundball rates were up. That’s generally a bad combination and suggests Wilkerson was either fouled, has a slowing bat, or was the victim of random chance. For the second time in three years Wilkerson was worth negative value, I don’t know if this is his last chance, but filling in for Mark Kotsay should allow for some playing time early on, we’ll see if Wilkerson is truly done, or simply playing possum.

Rays sign Morgan Ensberg

See Wilkerson, Brad. Both were sky scrapers not long ago, and now latch on to minor league deals with invites to spring training. Ensberg has said he’s willing to play all over, including the corner outfield and second base. Over the last few years Ensberg hasn’t rated too well defensively at third base, but perhaps his skillset lends better to second? He’ll earn 650k if he’s on the roster come opening day.

We’re encroaching on the start of a new season, which means an annual column on the worst baseball contracts of all-time has been published. Naturally names like Mike Hampton, Mo Vaughn, Darren Dreifort, and Chan Ho Park pop up, but in this ESPN.com Page 2 column, names like Alex Rodriguez and Adrian Beltre are listed, although not ranked amongst the “10 worst”. Jeff Sullivan of Lookout Landing has already blown the Alex Rodriguez mention to shreds with this post, but I’m still confused how Adrian Beltre deserves inclusion. Here’s what they say about him:

Adrian Beltre, 2005: 5 years, $64 million. Beltre hasn’t been a bad player with the Mariners, and while he’s been durable and provides a good glove, he’s also never posted an on-base percentage above .328 or driven in a hundred runs.

Beltre has been durable, and we’ll touch on the glove in a moment, but let’s focus on the offensive production. Belte’s career on-base percentage is .327 with a career walk rate of 7.3%. During his time in Seattle Beltre has posted OBPs and walk rates of: .303, .328, .319, .327, and 5.9%, 7%, 6%, and 8.3%. Average those out however you like and you’re essentially getting Beltre’s career totals.

That suggests the Mariners are getting what they paid for in terms of walks and on-base skills and while they aren’t great, Beltre was never going to replicate a .388 OBP without some balls-in-play luck. During that same time Beltre has slugged .413, .465, .482, and .457. That’s valuable. Of course, one should also point out Safeco Field’s conditions and dimensions depress right-handed power numbers, hurting Beltre’s raw offensive numbers. Using our park-adjusted batting runs metric, we see that Beltre has been worth about 17 runs offensively over his time in Seattle. That’s not too bad for a defensive virtuoso.

Defense is the part of Beltre’s game that people widely ignore or undervalue. Over the last four years Beltre has been worth an average of roughly 9 runs per season defensively. Add in those four runs of offense, a positional adjustment and 20 or so runs for replacement level and you have a 3.5-4 win player worth around 16 million on this market, but instead will only make 12 million next year. Ultimately, Beltre’s contract has paid him ~51 million to date and yet Beltre’s performances are valued at ~57 million, suggesting that Beltre has actually earned the Mariners a profit on a pretty good free agent deal.

Some may call Beltre’s contract a result of Bill Bavasi being Bill Bavasi and that’s simply untrue. Whether lucky or not, Bavasi signed Beltre to a very fair deal and ended up paying one of the league’s more underappreciated talents right what the market would dictate.

Give the Cardinals credit for innovative thinking. Often we see teams turn defensively sluggish second basemen into outfielders, but rarely do we see outfielders turning into second basemen. In fact, the only outfield-to-second transition I could come up with is Jeff Baker, who played third base, the outfield, and first base before spending 49 games at second this year. His defense actually got worse if you rely on that one data point.

In case you hadn’t heard yet, there’s a possibility of former part-time college shortstop Skip Schumaker moving to second base. The odds of this occurring are rising given Adam Kennedy’s release. Schumaker will have competition from players familiar with the middle infield, like Joe Thurston and Brendan Ryan, but for a team stacked with outfielders the Cardinals are at least trying to put their best eight on the field.

Unfortunately, it may not work out.

Moving from the corner outfield to second gives Schumaker roughly 10 more runs in value – or a win – considering he would earn -7.5 runs in either corner and 2.5 at second. CHONE projects his bas to be worth 0.2 runs while Marcels says 0.9 runs. Let’s be generous and assume Schumaker’s 2008 offense would repeat, 6 runs above average. Schumaker’s outfield defense has yet to rate as anything but average. That raises the question, how poor defensively can he stand to be at second base and still hold value?

Over the last five years, the worst defensive second basemen with at least 500 innings have been Jeff Kent (-11.5), Dan Uggla (-13), Jose Vidro (-14.2), Robinson Cano (-18.4), and Vidro again (-13.5). That’s an average of -14 runs. If we assume Schumaker is at least -14 and at worst -20 runs at second base we come up with the following:

(Runs)
OFF: 6
POS: 2.5
REP: 20
DEF: -14

14.5 runs/1.45 wins.

OFF: 6
POS: 2.5
REP: 20
DEF: -20

8.5 runs/0.85 wins.

The first scenario isn’t too bad, but Adam Kennedy was worth 1.7 wins last year. If the Cardinals are looking for an upgrade they need Schumaker to improve on an all ready generous offensive estimate or be better than hideous at second base. The Fans Scouting Report does suggest that Schumarker has a good first step, speed, and an arm that would seemingly play up at second base. In fact, his most similar fielders include two second basemen, Howie Kendrick and Robert Andino. Both of those are above average fielding second basemen.

Schumaker’s conversion will be one of the more interesting stories in spring training. If this works out, the Cardinals will successfully reallocate assets on the diamond without taking on excess salary or baggage.

Rangers sign Andruw Jones, Brendan Donnelly, and Jason Jennings (minor league deals)

Andruw Jones rejuvenation project, take two. Credit the Rangers for making a low-risk potentially high-reward move with Jones. Similar to the Omar Vizquel signing, if Jones makes the team and causes Josh Hamilton to shift to a corner outfield slot the Rangers defense will be much improved. Say what you want about the likelihood of Jones’ bat returning to the old days or the land of league average, but he’s still a decent defensive center fielder A replication of his 2007 season would still make Jones a pretty damn valuable player.

Did you know Donnelly was actually in the majors in 2007 and 2008? Yep, in 2007 he appeared in 27 games for the Red Sox, and last year in 15 for the Indians. Donnelly was actually decent for the Red Sox, but gave up a couple of homeruns and walked too many in his short Indians career. Donnelly also gave up 24.5% liners. For a team that lost Joaquin Benoit not too long ago, they need as many relief options as possible.

Unlike last year, if Jennings is hurt it won’t cost Texas four million in sunk costs, and if he’s healthy enough to be a ~2 win pitcher like the days of the past? Well, then the Rangers can come out even.

Reds sign Jacque Jones and Daryle Ward (minor league deals)

I promised myself I would withhold from making a Dusty Baker joke or related comment of sardonic nature within this write-up, and by golly am I going to stick to that.

Jones off-season included vision correction surgery and while there’s a possibility his eyes were the problem last season, what about all the years of moderate success? Jones had the worst offensive season of his career despite seeing his best walk rate. Jones power absolutely vanished, a 0.060 ISO is equal to Willie Bloomquist’s career average – and that’s after Bloomquist went nearly a year without an extra base hit. 2007 looked like a banner defensive season for Jones, as he +/- rated him at +12 in center and +2 in right, but alas last season Jones reverted to his career norms. Jones is a slightly above average fielder with an average-to-below-average bat in a corner outfield slot.

Ward is another former Cub, and one who happens to be a replacement level first baseman. Okay, that makes him sound like an extremely poor player, but assuming the Reds don’t bench Joey Votto for him – must resist Baker joke – Ward’s unlikely to make much of a difference either way.

Sabermetrically inclined analysts like myself are usually tagged with the label of not caring about the “intangibles” or “immeasurable” of certain players. That’s untrue. I’m quite aware that chemistry, leadership, and all that jazz exist, however their affects on winning and general player value are where I differ from those who preach the stuff. As most of you know, I’m a Rays fan and having experienced Cliff Floyd in 2008, I figured I’d bring that perspective to the table while analyzing the move.

Let’s be frank. Floyd makes no sense for the San Diego Padres purely as a player. His knees and ailing body have all but eliminated his ability to field. Last season Floyd touched a glove in spring training perhaps five times, it wasn’t his but instead shortstop Reid Brignac’s, he played catch with Evan Longoria for five tosses then gave the glove back to Brignac and declared he was finished for the day. During short his Rays career he played in 80 games, all as either a designated hitter or pinch hitter.

The Padres all ready have a young left fielder in Chase Headley, a young and extremely underexposed first baseman in Adrian Gonzalez, and a pretty talented right fielder in Brian Giles. This suggests Floyd will become a pinch hitter and feel good clubhouse leader type, and that’s exactly what he’ll bring to the Padres. Floyd only hit 11 homeruns last year, but I’ll never forget the one he hit on May 30th against Chicago.

Scott Linebrink entered the game in the bottom of the 9th while the scored was tied at one apiece. Floyd would take the first pitch for a called strike, and the second ball way out of the field, winning the game and doing what his knees do best – jog – around the bases as his teammates – all ecstatic for a victory, but clearly appreciating who hit the ball – gathered at home. Then Rays announcer Joe Magrane described it as “Daddy coming home.”

That’s not too far off. The local media maligned B.J. Upton for not hustling, the home crowd booed him, and Joe Maddon benched him for failing to hustle on groundballs. It would’ve been easy for Floyd to question Upton’s love of the game or desire to be the best, but in typical Floyd fashion, he spoke in support of Upton, and promised that he would help him overcome the obstacle. Upton and Floyd were nearly inseparable in the dugout as the elder acted as a mentor for one of the Rays most talented youngsters.

It wasn’t just Upton either, during spring workouts, when the articles about improved chemistry were freshly printed, Carl Crawford, Upton, and others would gather around Floyd, playfully engaging the veteran as if he were their big brother. Floyd would even bemoan the fact that this was Crawford’s team and locker room before calling him Superman.

Floyd is not going to help the Padres win many games next year. There’s a perfectly correct case to make that the Padres should be taking shots on high-upside players rather than playing the twilight of Floyd’s career. I agree with that and Floyd would be better suited to serve as a coach with San Diego, but even still I’ll miss Cliff Floyd the person next year.

Even if I won’t miss Cliff Floyd the player.

Athletics trade Matt Murton to the Rockies for Corey Wimberly

Rather than defalcating millions of dollars into a free agent outfielder, the Rockies have taken to Oakland’s surplus for a second time this off-season, and have yanked away the redheaded stepchild of the bunch, Matt Murton. It appears that Brad Hawpe will be the lone player with a guaranteed starting job as the Rockies will have Dexter Fowler, Carlos Gonzalez, and Ryan Spilborghs competing for the center field job, and if the Rockies have the desire, a platoon of Murton and Seth Smith in left field is sensible. Murton himself is a slightly above average fielder who can hit well enough to be an above average asset in either corner.

In exchange for Murton, the Athletics free a 40-man roster spot, an outfield from an overflowing unit, and Wimberly. The 25-year old is going to remind some of former Rockies Chone Figgins and Juan Pierre. Throughout his minor league career he’s played the majority of his time at second base, but has also made cameos at shortstop, third base, center field, and left field, and a few games as a designated hitter. Wimberly has displayed a knack for the stolen base and an ability to avoid the strikeout.

Murton is more likely to make an immediate impact, but Wimberly should open in Triple-A and make his debut in the latter stages of 2009 in a role similar to how the Rays used Fernando Perez.

Brewers trade Eric Fryer to the Yankees for Chase Wright

Wright is best known for being wrong in four consecutive at-bats versus the Boston Red Sox, with each resulting in a homerun. Wright’s minor league numbers aren’t spectacular, but they aren’t exactly poor either. He’s a groundball inducer who works off a fastball and change-up combination with a slider thrown in. The Brewers already have R.J. Swindle and Mitch Stetter sitting around in the bullpen, so it seems unlikely Wright breaks camp with the big league team, but for a back of the pen type, Wright can be decent.

Fryer is a minor league catcher who really isn’t. In 2007 33 of Fryer’s 42 games involved catching, in 2008 that number was 39 of 105. Fryer hits well though, so the Yankees are getting a guy who likely won’t stick at catcher (five passed balls and 11 of 58 CS in 2008) but might have the bat to make it as a corner outfielder somewhere down the line. Frankly, Fryer seems like a bit much to give up for Wright, but I’ll give the Brewers and their exposure to Fryer the benefit of the doubt until proven otherwise.

It wasn’t too long ago the Athletics added Russ Springer to perhaps the best pen in baseball. Naturally, Billy Beane decided that wasn’t enough, and traded two minor leaguers to the Chicago Cubs for Mike Wuertz.

Since 2005 Wuertz has been solid, posting a FIP over 4 only once, naturally that came last season. Wuertz strikeout rates were down substantially in 2008 as his fastball usage dropped 12%, down to a measly 29%. On average Wuertz fastball remained where you would expect it to be, between 90 and 91 miles per hour. Josh Kalk’s player cards suggest Wuertz fastball moved “up” and in to righties more in 2008 than 2007.

Wuertz was demoted to Triple-A during mid-season, and as he returned, so did some of his strikeouts. The pattern was strikingly similar to 2007, as you can see below.

Over the last three seasons Wuertz has earned win values of 0.2, 0.7, and 0.5, an average of a little more than 0.4 wins per season, successful for a middle reliever. Wuertz’ stuff has generated more than 40% ground balls since 2005, including ~54% in 2006. He’ll make 1.1 million in 2009, and will be eligible for his third year of arbitration following 2009, but will still be two seasons from free agency thanks to achieving Super-Two status after 2008.

In return, the Cubs receive Richie Robnett and Justin Sellers. Neither is much of a prospect, although Robnett is a former first round pick, for whatever that’s worth. Sellers went undrafted in the Rule 5 draft, suggesting he’s not an overly desirable player either; as a middle infielder in Double-A, one would think a team like the Pirates or Royals could use him as their utility infielder.

The Athletics bullpen continues to get deeper. Again, we just reviewed the Springer deal, but the A’s now have Joey Devine, Brad Ziegler, Springer, Santiago Casilla, Jerry Blevins, Wuertz, and probably one more reliever (Josh Outman?) at their dispense on a nightly basis. There’s not a bad pitcher amongst the bunch.

Meanwhile the Cubs bullpen should have a slot for Angel Guzman available and increased leverage situations for Aaron Heilman and who have you. Of course, the way Jim Hendry has been working it lately, he may swing him out in a deal for Miguel Batista tomorrow.

Reds sign Jonny Gomes (minor league deal)

Signing Gomes is a prudent move for the Reds and one that beats the heck out of trading for Jermaine Dye. Over the last three years has measured out below replacement level – thanks in part to less than stellar fielding – but last year a .200 BABIP attributed to the poor results. Over the last three years Gomes wRAAs have been rather poor for an outfielder with a reputation for power: -4, 2.6, -4.3. Despite that, CHONE has Gomes at 9.8 wRAA while Marcels says -3.1, and Oliver 0.7. Gomes career .879 OPS versus left-handed pitchers suggests he should hit in a platoon role, and as mentioned his defense is below average (See this photo for evidence), but there’s a chance Gomes becomes a poor man’s Adam Dunn. He’ll compete with Norris Hopper and others for a roster spot.

Nationals sign Gary Glover (minor league deal)

Another former Ray, Glover is what he is. A replacement level reliever with a starter’s history, suggesting he’s capable of producing outings of multiple innings. Glover joins Bobby Brownlie, Gustavo Chacin, Jesus Colome, Justin Jones, Wilfredo Ledezma, J.D. Martin, Jorge Sosa, Josh Towers, and Ryan Wagner as National non-roster invitees.

Giants sign Juan Uribe (minor league deal)

Over the last three years Uribe has been worth 1.1 wins while Willie Bloomquist was worth 0.4 wins, yet somehow the latter gets a multi-year major league deal, and Uribe settles for a minor league deal. Where’s the justice in that? There’s no guarantee Uribe makes the 25-man roster, but you have to believe at some point this year he’ll get some at-bats with the Giants and at an appropriate price for his talent.

Red Sox sign Fernando Cabrera (minor league deal)

Within a week of losing David Aardsma the Red Sox quickly filled their “high strikeout, walk” reliever quota with Cabrera. It’s been a while since Cabrera teased the baseball world in 2005 with 50 innings and a 2.63 FIP. In every season since Cabrera’s walk rate has been above 4.5 mark in the majors. Relievers are so volatile, there’s a chance Cabrera gets back to his 2005 self next year, but it’s probably more likely he remains a tempting however unfulfilling replacement level reliever.