Many teams will be labeled as “The new Rays” throughout this spring. The problem is the new Rays will not be competitive in 2009. Instead, this organization is still undergoing chances in its framework, necessitated changes based on a decade of incompetence thanks to prior management. This team dealt two of its starting outfielders last season for questionable returns. They’ve restrained from giving in to pressure to sign free agents, opting instead to amass young talent through trades, the Rule 5 draft, and the amateur draft.

By now you should know the team, it is the Pittsburgh Pirates, and if you were unaware of the change, then read on.

The popular opinion in Pittsburgh is that the Pirates need to re-sign Doug Mientkiewicz for reasons that extend beyond his win values. Recent reports link the Pirates to Eric Hinske. As a Rays fan, I’ve seen quite a bit of Hinske, and frankly I’m a bit befuddled on how he’s failed to attract much interest prior to the Pirates. Hinske came cheaply for the Rays last season — a non-roster invitee who would make 800k for appearing in the majors – and figures to come similarly cheaper in this market.

Hinske’s allure to the Pirates is undoubtedly his bat, willingness to come off the bench, and ability to play overall league average defense at the four corners. Mientkiewicz played first, third, and right field for the Pirates in 2008 and batted left-handed, there’s a clear match here, except potentially in price.

Over the last three years, the two are near mirrors – Hinske averaging ~0.97 wins and Mientkiewicz ~0.93. If the Pirates can land Hinske for any amount less than Mientkiewicz is asking, they should jump on it. Heck, if they convince Hinske to simply take Mientkiewicz 2008 salary of ~1.075 million he’ll get a pay raise and they’ll get a contract likely to succeed.

Yeah, Mientkiewicz is popular with the fans, and yes, they run the risk of looking “cheap”, even if they can use the money saved towards filling other holes, but kudos to Pittsburgh. In the past they probably would’ve overpaid for the qualities Mientkiewicz brings to the team, instead they’ll find those same qualities and at a price better suited for their situation.

Add another quality arm to a bullpen chocked full of them. Russ Springer appears close to signing a one-year, 3 million dollar deal (with incentives) and joining the Oakland Athletics. The Athletics relief corps contributed roughly 5 wins, that’s more than the Cubs, Diamondbacks, Twins, and Rays bullpens and more than the Pirates, Brewers, Cardinals, Mets, Orioles, Astros, Giants, Marlins, Nationals, and Padres combined. and only have two notable members to replace – Alan Embree (4.53 FIP) and Huston Street (3.47 FIP).

Over the last three years Springer has recorded win values of -0.1, 1.1, and 0.6, or an average of ~0.5, which puts him worth just under 2.5 million. Springer could very well see an increase in leverage situations, and thus an increase in value. Springer had a 3.51 FIP last season and moving forward CHONE projects 3.97 while Marcels spits out 4.01. We’ll say a 4 FIP and 50 innings, that puts him pretty close to being worth 3 million. It’s important to remember that Springer is going to a pitchers paradise, meaning his out-by-air methods will play better, but it’s a bit hard to imagine Springer having a sub-6% homerun per flyball percentage for the third consecutive year.

Given the current personnel in the A’s pen, we can probably expect the construction to involve Joey Devine or Brad Ziegler in the 8th and 9th, Jerry Blevins as the LOOGY – although he can face righties with more success than most left-handed pitchers – and Springer pitching in the 7th. I’m curious if Billy Beane would attempt to “build a closer” using Springer, and then potentially spin him off if the Athletics were out of contention in July.

Since the Cardinals chose against offering Springer arbitration, this move won’t signal the loss of a draft pick, leaving the Athletics in position to add Orlando Cabrera if they so choose. Such an addition would leave the Athletics creeping even closer into contention for the American League West.

What’s a new baseball season without a Mark Teahen position switch? This time, as Sam Mellinger reports, Teahen will get a look at second base. Moving around the diamond is nothing new for Teahen, who broke into the majors as a third baseman and since has spent time at first base and each of the outfield positions.

On the surface, moving Teahen from the outfield to second makes some sense. The Royals have a cluster in the outfield with David DeJesus, Coco Crisp, and Jose Guillen, and with Guillen’s contract forcing him into the lineup, leaving little playing time for Teahen. Of course, at second the Royals have a bit of a jam as well: they only acquired Albert Collaspo last season and don’t forget about Willie Bloomquist.

Dave has beat the third and second base comparisons into our heads, so I won’t rehash his arguments, but instead question whether Teahen has any hope of being a decent second baseman. Teahen’s hot corner experience was a mixed bag; in 2005, his UZR was an atrocious -17.6, that number rebounded to a passable 0.3 in 2006, and after taking a year off from third, Teahen returned for 166 innings last season and had a UZR of -2.7. CHONE calls him a -11 fielder and The Fielding Bible has Teahen worth -24 runs between 2005 and 2007.

It’s safe to say that Teahen is an awful fielder a third. That provides little hope for a successful translation to second, at least defensively. CHONE has Teahen at 5.6 runs above average offensively and Marcels has him at 1 below. If Teahen is a league average hitter his bat will play up at second, meaning his value comes down to how well (or unwell) his glove translates to second.

This is the first sign of “innovative” thinking the Royals have shown this off-season, but frankly, the chances of success aren’t too high.

Padres sign Henry Blanco (1/750k)

The Cubs interest in acquiring a southpaw bat left Blanco in the cold, although not for too long. On a team with a good catcher, Blanco is a mighty fine reserve, on the Padres Blanco represents the best backstop option. Nick Hundley will get most of the at-bats as the Padres try to figure out whether he is an option heading forward or simply a stopgap. Thus, Blanco is casted as the “mentor” type who starts in day games. Since his starting stint with the Twins 2004 Blanco has been worth 1.5 wins in a similar role.

Brewers sign Craig Counsell (1/1 mil)

When the Royals signed Willie Bloomquist for two years and three million, general manager Dayton Moore described Bloomquist as a “Craig Counsell” type. Naturally, the actual Counsell would sign for one year and for a third of the money. This is a nifty signing for the Brewers thanks to Counsell’s still worthwhile glove. Over the last three years Counsell has average a win per season, suggesting he’s going to make the Brewers a profit this season.

Plus his batting stance is the most unique in this post-Tony Batista league.

Mariners acquire David Aardsma for Fabian Williamson

Williamson is a 20-year old lefty who spent 2008 in rookie ball, pitching pretty well, although having some issues with walks. Williams sits in the high-80’s, and apparently the new Seattle brass felt his ceiling wasn’t much higher than a situational type, and thus sent him to Boston.

Is Aardsma the next Grant Balfour or Matt Thornton? Probably not, but they do have some things in common; impressive strikeout totals, a reliance on a mid-90’s fastball, and issuing high rates of free passes. If nothing else, the following graphs are pretty to look at, and for Mariner fans, fun to imagine.

Aardsma is out of options, so expect him to get a look in the Mariners pen.

Jon Heyman’s drew the ire of many a blog in the past, including numerous times this off-season alone, but his latest column features this nugget about Bobby Abreu:

Abreu is getting a bad rap by executives who are overemphasizing his defensive slippage. He’s still an adequate right fielder, but his fear of the wall got so much airtime in New York that he has become over-criticized. Abreu, in fact, is fifth in assists among right fielders over the last three years and third in fielding percentage, and while he’s 16th of 27 in range factor, Yankees pitchers had the second highest ground-ball-to-fly-ball ratio in the AL. Meanwhile, Raul Ibanez, a below average left fielder who was a chic pick this winter, probably benefited by being hidden in Seattle and signed for $31.5 million over three years with Abreu’s former Phillies team. Any way you compare these two players, Abreu looks better … at least from here.

All righty then, let’s break this down piece by piece.

Abreu is getting a bad rap by executives who are overemphasizing his defensive slippage

I’m not entirely sure how anyone can overemphasize his defensive “slippage”. The truth is, Bobby Abreu is going to hurt you if he plays the field, and when you weigh his total value, yeah his defense hurts him.

He’s still an adequate right fielder, but his fear of the wall got so much airtime in New York that he has become over-criticized.

No he’s not, at least not defensively. Abreu has been a negative defender since 2004, whether or not he crashes into walls is largely irrelevant. Carl Crawford rarely runs into the wall and he still rates as one of the best defenders in the game. Plus, how many plays is Abreu going to be required to make that involve running smack into a wall?

Abreu, in fact, is fifth in assists among right fielders over the last three years

Having a good arm is only one of the defensive tools, but since 2004, The Hardball Times has valued Abreu’s arm at: 4.4, 0.2, -1, and 3.6 runs per 200 opportunities. That’s an average of 1.8 runs, we’ll be generous and say Abreu will prevent 2 runs with his arm next season, that still doesn’t make him any less of an awful fielder.

and third in fielding percentage, and while he’s 16th of 27 in range factor, Yankees pitchers had the second highest ground-ball-to-fly-ball ratio in the AL

This contradicts itself. Abreu’s pitching staff gives him fewer chances, so therefore we should hardly take a high fielding percentage as an indication of Abreu’s defensive wizardry. Plus, the criticism is not that Abreu’s glove disallows him from making catches, but that his range doesn’t allow him to reach balls that average right fielders do.

Meanwhile, Raul Ibanez, a below average left fielder who was a chic pick this winter, probably benefited by being hidden in Seattle and signed for $31.5 million over three years with Abreu’s former Phillies team. Any way you compare these two players, Abreu looks better … at least from here.

UZR takes park factors into account, so sure, even if you grant that it’s easer to field left in SafeCo than right in Yankee Stadium, we should still be able to compare these two with park biased stripped from the equation. Over the last three years Dewan has Abreu at -14 (32nd), -14 (32nd), and -24 (34th) while Ibanez was at +2 (16th), -25 (33rd), -18 (33rd). UZR puts Abreu worth -15.3, -4.2, and -25.2, and Ibanez worth -5.6, -20.8, and -12.6. Average that out, and factor in the arms ratings and Abreu is worth about eight runs less than Ibanez.

Offensively Abreu has been 19 (park adjusted) runs better over the last three years, which means about 11 runs better overall, or one win. So yeah, Abreu is the better player, but the Ibanez move was ridiculous on its own, that does not mean some team should sign Abreu and throw him in the outfield. If we use the poor moves to judge all players then we should go ahead and campaign Juan Uribe in for a multiple year deal, after all, Willie Bloomquist and Aaron Miles got one apiece.

Look, Bobby Abreu is a decent enough player who can help a team. By all means, someone should sign him as a DH type if the money is right, but playing him in the field is devaluing him.

Mariano Rivera is perhaps the greatest closer of all time. In 2008, Rivera posted a 2.03 FIP, the best of his career as a closer, while recording 70.2 innings pitched. Given such, you would expect Rivera to be extremely valuable amongst all pitchers, not simply relievers. As it turns out, Rivera’s value was 4.2 wins, or the wins equivalent to James Shields and Aubrey Huff.

Carlos Marmol acted as the Cubs eighth inning presence and was worth all of 1.5 wins. The currently unemployed Garret Anderson was also worth 1.5 wins. Ryan Madson just signed a juicy extension, but in 2008, he was equal to Edwin Jackson and Gregor Blanco. Of the 332 pitchers who completed at least 10 innings in relief, only 4 were valued higher than 3 wins (Rivera, Papelbon, Chamberlain, Fuentes), 17 finished with greater than 2 wins, and 55 with at least one win, leaving 277 relievers worth a win or negative value.

Of course that’s with our innings limit set relatively low, and bumping the threshold up to 50 innings results in 135 qualifiers. From there, we have the following results:

4+ wins: 1 pitchers
3+ wins: 3 pitchers
2+ wins: 14 pitchers
1+ wins: 47 pitchers
0+ wins:115 pitchers
Negative value: 20 pitchers

Or, in percentage form:

4+ wins: 0.74%
3+ wins: 2.22%
2+ wins: 10.4%
1+ wins: 34.8%
0+ wins: 85.2%
Negative value: 14.8%

Yes, you are reading that right; more relievers with 50+ innings had negative value than those who had 2+ wins, or “average” value from starting pitchers and batters. Also somewhat unbelievably, the 14 pitchers worth 2+ wins only averaged six additional innings than the 20 with negative value. Of course, there’s also the matter of which relievers would pitch tons of innings, seemingly either the very best or the worst would be turned to often. This is to say, set-up men and closers and mop-up men.

Stating that middle relievers are overrated is hardly groundbreaking, but I’m going to state it anyways: middle relievers are overrated.

In 2008, the Tampa Bay Rays bullpen posted a 3.55 ERA and a 4.18 FIP, quite an accomplishment considering the 2007 version had a collective 6.16 ERA and a 5.31 FIP. The turnaround was lead by breakout seasons from Grant Balfour and J.P. Howell along with overstated performances from veterans Dan Wheeler, Troy Percival, and Trever Miller. We’ve seen the ugly and the good with the Rays pen over the last two years, but what will 2009 hold?

As personnel goes, the Rays are likely to move Chad Bradford’s salary prior to the season’s genesis. Bradford was acquired last August and runs a pretty coin for a team on a budget. All told the Rays would spend nearly 10 million if they keep Bradford, Percival, and Wheeler, that’s roughly a sixth of the team’s total payroll spent on three relievers. Often-injured Percival will likely be the “closer” while Wheeler, Howell, and Balfour act as set-up men. Joe Nelson is the only addition that most people are going to recognize, but the Rays have done a decent job of stockpiling low-risk, medium reward relief types, including Rule 5 draftee Derek Rodriguez, Randy Choate, and most recently Lance Cormier.

The pitcher most susceptive to regression appears to be Wheeler. A .202 BABIP (career BABIP is .298) will undoubtedly rise, compounding Wheeler’s homerun tendencies. Even worse, Wheeler saw his strikeout rates and velocity plunge while his walk rates took a minor spike. Wheeler’s CHONE projected 3.98 FIP seems overly optimistic at this point. Howell also seemed to have some BABIP luck and his line drive rate seems unsustainably low.

The most unpredictable pitcher on staff could be Balfour. Throughout his career, Balfour highlighted impressive strikeout rates, but diminished them with outrageous walk totals. Balfour had spent most of 2007 in the minors and was designated for assignment in spring training last season. Naturally, he went unclaimed, and would report to Triple-A Durham. After a Percival injury, Balfour would be called upon and excel in a “relief ace” role. CHONE calls for a 3.22 FIP, and that seems like a decent midpoint.

Nelson and Cormier are unlikely to replicate their 2008 seasons either. Of the improvements, Cormier’s seems more plausible as a sincere progression. Heavy implementation of a curveball seemed to coincide with his success. Meanwhile Nelson saw an increase in groundballs while seemingly not changing anything. Perhaps the difference is the contextual usage of his “Vulcan change-up” rather than the total usage.

Some other names that could pop up in the Rays pen next year include Jason Childers, Jorge DePaula, Dewon Day (assuming he clears waivers), Jeff Niemann, Mitch Talbot, Dale Thayer, Juan Salas, and James Houser. If that seems like an excessive amount of reserve relievers, well, that’s because it is. The Rays have stacked the top of their system with largely interchangeable relievers that share common traits, like producing groundballs and avoiding walks. Basically, they have a ton of seemingly average relief arms at their exposure if disaster strikes.

It’s fair to say the Rays pen won’t feature a top tier relief corps, but there’s no reason to believe they won’t be in the middle of the pack again in 2009.

Rays sign Lance Cormier (1/650k)

The recently discussed Dewon Day era ended abruptly in St. Pete thanks to Cormier. As documented elsewhere, 2008 was only the third time in his big league career that Cormier saw less than 50% of his innings come from starting, and the second time less than 5%. In both of those seasons Cormier has posted his career best FIPs; 4.39 in 2005 and 4.04 last season. Cormier has a faint strikeout rate, walks quite a few, and allowed too many homeruns as a starter. Regardless, CHONE has Cormier at a 4.49 FIP, if that happens, it’s possible Cormier fits in as a situational reliever — a.k.a. groundball inducer — in the Rays bullpen.

White Sox sign Bartolo Colon (1/1)

If Colon pitches enough innings he’ll have a shot at three million total. It’s a nice low-risk move for Kenny Williams. Colon was swell with Boston last season, earning 2.9 million, which is roughly as much as he can earn in 2009. Colon will continue to live and die off his fastball. Naturally Colon’s going to allow a number of homeruns, but his FIP should sit around 4.5 like CHONE and Marcels project. He’ll join a rotation that has to replace Javier Vazquez.

Orioles sign Gregg Zaun (1/1.5)

Zaun’s deal includes a team option for 2010 that could see him earn two million (or a 500k buyout). Pencil Zaun’s name into the catcher spot until Matt Wieters arrives, which may or may not be early in the season. Chad Moeller is the other catcher around, and Zaun is clearly better than that. Long billed as the “perfect back-up catcher”, Zaun’s win values have been on the decline since 2005, but CHONE is still a bit forgiving on Zaun’s offensive projection, suggesting we should expect a pretty average performance next year. It should be interesting to see how Wieters’ service time is handled, especially if Zaun is better than expected.

Indians sign Vinnie Chulk and Matt Herges (minor league deals)

Chulk’s strikeouts disappeared as his homerun totals shot up, prompting the Giants to move on after season’s end. Chulk also saw a loss in velocity, which is obviously bad, but even worse when you study his usage patterns and realize he relied more on his fastball last season than previously. Chulk has a history of being decent, if not fantastic, so there’s some hope here.

Herges 2008 is a good litmus test. Ask your friends how many runs worse he was in 2008 than 2007. If they say anything higher than 0.06 then odds are they’re relying on ERA too much. The only red flag is the increased line drive rate, pitchers simply can’t give up nearly 27% liners and live to tell about it. If Herges can regain his groundball inducing ability and avoid such solid contact, he’ll be a nice find for Cleveland. Odds are, one of these two is the last guy in the Indians pen.

Free Felix Pie! When the Cubs acquired Juan Pierre prior to the 2006 season, the 21-year old Pie went to work in Triple-A Iowa. Seemingly the plan was to use Pierre as a bridge from Corey Patterson to Pie. Instead, the Cubs handed the 2007 center field job to Alfonso Soriano, and later Jacque Jones. Kosuke Fukudome, Reed Johnson, and Jim Edmonds would be signed or claimed within the last season, leaving the Cubs yet again with a stacked outfield and leaving Pie on the outside looking in.

Only 260 at-bats into his pro Cubs career, the Cubs have traded Pie to the Baltimore Orioles for Garrett Olson and a prospect. Since 2007, Pie has hit well in the minors and has a knack for playing solid defense. It’s easy to forget that Pie will only be 24 this coming season, but the question is how he’ll fit in with the Orioles. Baltimore features a number of talent outfielders in Nick Markakis, Adam Jones, and to a lesser extent Luke Scott.

Olson is an unspectacular starter with average stuff and below-average stats. Olson’s minor league strikeouts have yet to carry over neither has his control in the minors. A 5.13 FIP isn’t overly encouraging, and neither is the homerun problem, but CHONE foresees a better season in 2009 for Olson, 153 innings and a 4.96 FIP. The Cubs might use Olson in relief, or in the back of the rotation, and that is the problem here.

Sure, Olson could later be dealt, but as of right now this trade is questionable for Chicago. Pie has lacked opportunity in Chicago and by dealing him for Olson the Cubs are not only selling low on a high potential player, but also potentially hurting their 2009 team. You can argue that the Cubs are in no position to rely on potential rather than known performance, but again, Olson is hardly a pillar of success.

The alternative option, placing Pie on the bench as the fourth outfielder in place of Reed Johnson or Joey Gathright does not give Pie an incredible opportunity. However, with Milton Bradley’s ever wavering health, there is a chance the Cubs would need a fill-in outfielder for some time. At the very least, the Cubs wouldn’t be seen as giving Pie away. Then again, the Cubs seem to lose interest in prospects quickly.

Even if Pie busts, you have to like the move for the Orioles, who have amassed a ton of young talent since Andy MacPhail took over control. In any other division the Orioles would be a future power.

For 850k, it’s hard to argue with. David Eckstein figures to be the full-time second baseman, a position he showed more promise at than shortstop last year with the Diamondbacks. The Padres have to figure this signing will work out better than the Tadahito Iguchi signing last off-season.

2008 was hardly a banner year for Eckstein, but it wasn’t all based on skill decline. Eckstein’s BABIP was a bit lower than you’d expect for him or for a player with his line drive rate. Along with increased walk and strikeout rates, Eckstein also produced his highest ISO since 2005. CHONE has Eckstein at -4.8 wRAA next season and Marcels at -6.1. We’ll call it -5 and assume his defense is a bit below average.

~15 runs for replacement
~5 runs positional
~ ~5 runs defense
~ -5 runs offense

10 runs, or a win. If that happens, Eckstein is making the Padres a few million in profit, which isn’t a bad return. Throw in the potential for a mid-season trade – even if it is a Chad Beck type – and this is a low risk low reward move. Of course, this also makes the Pads projected middle infield stand just over 11 feet combined, which is going to create some interesting photo ops, especially with the taller players in the division.

The Padres also claimed Jae Kuk Ryu (pronounced like “You”) off of waivers from the Tampa Bay Rays. Ryu missed most of last season thanks to elbow surgery, but he’s got the potential to be a decent grab for San Diego. Ryu has an average repertoire freaturing a high-80’s fastball and change/curve. Ryu was bumped off the Rays 40-man by Gabe Kapler.