Rotation

2006: Roger Clemens, Al Leiter, Jake Peavy, Dontrelle Willis
2009: Jake Peavy, Roy Oswalt, John Lackey

It’s hard to believe, but Leiter somehow made the staff. It’s also hard to believe that three of the four pitchers listed in 2006 are either out of the game or simply ineffective. Of course, Oswalt, Peavy, and Lackey had down years, but even still come within a run of the 2006 staff. Oh, and that’s with one less pitcher, and without a 5.3 win pitcher in Clemens. Assuming the U.S.A. team adds a non-Paul Byrd starter to the mix, it seems safe to give the nod to the ’09 “rotation”.

Overall advantage: 2009
Individual advantage: 2006

Bullpen

2006: Chad Cordero, Brian Fuentes, Todd Jones, Brad Lidge, Gary Majewski, Scot Shields, Mike Timlin, Huston Street, Dan Wheeler
2009: Scot Shields, J.J. Putz, B.J. Ryan, Jonathan Broxton, Matt Lindstrom, Matt Thornton, Joe Nathan, Brian Fuentes

Yikes, look at the flamethrowers in that 09 bullpen. Nathan is better now than he was then while the opposite is true for Shields. Fuentes has remained relatively static. Outside of Nathan, none of the new relievers are quite equal to 2006’s Lidge, but that’s not to say the pen is poor, in fact it beats the ’06 unit 16.9 to 14.7. Perhaps the most fun thing about this bullpen will be all of these superb relievers without roles defining them. Joe Nathan entering in the 6th when the tying run is at third and there’s one out should be a bit more realistic in this tournament setting, and that’s pretty intriguing.

Overall advantage: 2009
Individual advantage: Tie.

So we’ve covered each of the positions, has team U.S.A upgraded? Well, almost. Team wide win values:

2006 – 84.8
2009 – 84.35

That’s right, despite having six fewer players, the new U.S. gathering rates within a half of a win of the 2006 team. Encouraging for those rooting for them. Now, if only they’ll play Rollins in place of Jeter.

The World Baseball Classic will kick off within the next few weeks, and in a few days preliminary rosters are due. At this point ,the United States team has 24 players listed, a few shy of their 2006 roster. Of course 2006’s results weren’t quite what the country had envisioned, and as we approach the second tournament, is the 2009 team better equipped to take home the trophy than in 2006?

Catchers
2006: Jason Varitek, Michael Barrett, Brian Schneider
2009: Brian McCann, Chris Ianetta

This seems more lopsided than it is. Nowadays Varitek is a shell of his former self, Barrett signed on a minor league deal, and Schneider is nothing special. Meanwhile McCann and Ianetta were two of the best offensive catchers in the National League last season. Using three-years wins values (so, for 2006’s team we’re talking 2003-2005, and for 2009 we’re talking 2006-2008) the 2006 catching staff combines for 8.3 wins on average. 2009’s team is at a bit of a disadvantage at the moment, but nonetheless combines for 6.3 wins. McCann figures to get most of the playing time, and he’s better than any catcher the 2006 American team could offer. Odds are another catcher will be added at some point.

Overall advantage: 2006
Individual advantage: 2009

Corner Infield

2006: Derrek Lee, Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira, Chipper Jones
2009: Kevin Youkilis, Chipper Jones, David Wright

Much like with the catcher situation, the looks of things would suggest 2006 runs away, but not so fast. Again, we’re talking about one less player – although I suppose you could throw Ryan Braun into a reserve role, but whatever. Despite having A-Rod, a young Teixeira, and a fresh off 2005 Lee, the 2006 team only has a three win advantage over the 2009 grouping; 20.5 to 17.1. No player on this year’s team compares to Alex Rodriguez at the time, although David Wright comes closest.

Overall advantage: 2006
Individual advantage: 2006.

Middle Infield

2006: Derek Jeter, Michael Young, Chase Utley
2009: Dustin Pedroia, Jimmy Rollins, Derek Jeter, Mark DeRosa

I have the sneaking suspicion that Jeter will receive most of the playing time, despite Rollins being the better player at this point. Whether you classify DeRosa as an outfielder, corner infielder, or middle infielder, the 2009 team is still seeing an upgrade up the middle. Jeter has declined by a tenth of a win, Pedroia is a win better than Young, and Rollins is a better player than the young Utley. Throw DeRosa in and the 2009 staff has a 16.4 to 9.6 win.

Overall advantage: 2009
Individual advantage: 2009

Outfield

2006: Ken Griffey Jr., Matt Holliday, Vernon Wells, Randy Winn, Johnny Damon, Jeff Francoeur
2009: Ryan Braun, Curtis Granderson, Grady Sizemore, Brad Hawpe

The 2006 outfield looks loaded, but yet again looks are deceiving. Sizemore has averaged 6.6 wins, or as many as Griffey Jr., Holliday, and Francoeur combined. Hawpe is an odd choice, and as a bit of a Rays homer, I wouldn’t mind seeing a Carl Crawford/Grady Sizemore/Curtis Granderson outfield at some point with a flyball pitcher on the mound. Despite the difference in size, the 2009 quartet holds up favorably at 15.65 wins, but the 2006 team has the edge for now at 16.8.

Overall advantage: 2006
Individual advantage: 2009

Tomorrow we’ll look at the pitching staffs and reach a conclusion.

Padres sign Mark Prior and Chris Burke (minor league deals)

Prior is baseball’s version of Prometheus. No matter how many times he attempts to come back, it seems like that darn eagle will scoop in and eat his Achilles tendon or an arm ligament. Unbelievably, Prior hasn’t thrown a pitch in a regular season game – majors or minors – in two full years. It’s easy to talk about “When Prior is healthy…” but he never is. Regardless, if he somehow does stay healthy, the only data we can go off is two seasons old and doesn’t reflect well on him anyways. CHONE says 54 innings and a 4.87 FIP, the Padres would be lucky to get that. I always like to reflect on how special Prior’s 2003 season was when writing about him: 211.3 innings, 245 strikeouts, only 2.13 walks per nine, and a 2.47 FIP – that’s good for 6.8 wins. Tim Lincecum’s 2008 was worth 7.1 wins. That should give you an idea of just how special Prior was and had the chance to be.

Dave covered Burke in more depth following his non-tendering, but in simple terms: Burke’s a potentially valuable player who’s ran into some poor luck and a lack of chances over the years. At his best, Burke is a 0.75-1 win player. His defensive versatility – especially in left and at second – is a plus for keeping him. It’s a bit odd that the Padres are the ones making this move unless they have the intent of starting him at some point.

Pirates sign Craig Monroe (minor league deal)

The Pirates were reportedly right in the Rocco Baldelli sweepstakes until the end, so it makes sense that they promptly jump on Monroe after losing out. Monroe is basically what you think he is: an okay fielding corner outfielder who hits for power against lefties. Like Baldelli, Monroe doesn’t walk much and tends to go out of the strike zone quite a bit. It’s a minor league deal, and the Pirates seem unlikely to use him in a starting capacity barring a disaster.

You know the 30-year-old starting pitcher fresh off nearly 200 innings and a 3.38 FIP with the Milwaukee Brewers, but it seems as if teams, or at least reporters, have all but forgotten Ben Sheets. The injuries make a Milton Bradley comparison germane, although that’s where the comparison ends. Naturally, that leaves the Texas Rangers as one of the few teams known as interested.

Even with those injury concerns, Sheets is a valuable asset. Sheets’ streak of 200+ inning seasons ended in 2005. Yet despite reduced innings Sheets has posted win values of 3.5, 4.2, 2.5, and 3.9. That’s an average of 3.5. Coincidentally 2005 was also Derek Lowe’s first season with the Los Angeles Dodgers, and in the same time span, Lowe has averaged 3.48 wins. It’s worth noting that Lowe also pitched in 244 more innings.

(The red line represents Sheets 2008 innings)

This suggests that while Sheets will not match Lowe in quantity, he will match him in quality. It also reinforces the idea that having an above average often-injured pitcher can be beneficial.

CHONE
Sheets 148 IP 3.84 FIP
Lowe 171 IP 3.71 FIP

Marcels
Sheets 173 IP 3.61 FIP
Lowe 185 IP 3.67 FIP

Awfully close, but we know Lowe reportedly wants more than 3/36 with murmurs of a fourth year. Sheets demands haven’t been as publicly known. That doesn’t speak either way about his demands – if they were low enough you would assume the Brewers would jump on re-signing him.

Eric covered the Lowe/Perez offers earlier, if that’s indicative of the entire market, some team is going to wind up with Ben Sheets, and even if he does miss a few starts yearly, some team is not going to be disappointed.

We’ve talked about it multiple times, but the Boston Red Sox aggression this off-season is being placed in a handful of lottery tickets. With the signing of Takashi Saito, nothing has changed. Entering the off-season, the Red Sox had three areas of need: catcher, middle relief, and to a far lesser extent shortstop. With Saito, Ramon Ramirez, and whomever the John Smoltz/Brad Penny signings bump out of the rotation, Boston can place a strikethrough on middle relief.

2008 marked Saito’s third season in America and his fewest appearances and innings yet. The causation of Saito’s decline was his right elbow, and during the off-season, Saito underwent a non-surgical procedure to repair the damage. It’s hard to know exactly how effective the method will be, but the Sox are only on the hook for between 1.5 to 2.5 million. Incentives can earn Saito up to 7 million, and there is a club option. All and all, you are talking about an insignificant financial loss if Saito’s arm explodes in the spring.

CHONE has Saito at 47 innings and a 2.82 FIP while Marcels says 55 innings and a 3.15 FIP. If he’s somewhere in between, say 50 innings and a 3 FIP along with a middle reliever’s leverage (around 0.6), Saito will be worth about 0.7 WAR, or 3.6 million in the free agent market. If Saito is more of a set-up man, and has a WAR closer to 1, his value could deter closer to 6 million.

The Sox are obviously high on the win and revenue curves, which makes the one million trade off more than worthwhile. Without knowing the exact plateaus that Saito needs to reach, I’ll assume the Sox are going to get their money’s worth one way or the other. The best is Saito becoming yet another shutdown Boston reliever, the worst? Well, the Sox lose some money.

Red Sox sign Mark Kotsay (1/1.5)

Given the recent signing of Rocco Baldelli, this seems like a rather smart move. Kotsay’s job description includes being the fifth outfield and reserve first baseman – same as last season – at the same time I do question why the Red Sox didn’t attempt and sign Eric Hinske instead. Kotsay’s offensive production has been decisively below average since 2004, and 2009 doesn’t expect to be any different. CHONE has Kotsay at -4.8 wRAA and Marcels at -11.1, although I would expect those numbers to be closer to average if Kotsay plays mostly against righties. Kotsay’s defensive ratings over the past few seasons haven’t been pretty either:

2006: -6.7
2007: -3.6
2008: -5.3

During that time Kotsay has played most of his games in the spacious Oakland Coliseum and Fenway Park, so it’s quite possible his defensive ratings are skewed, and The Fans Scouting Report still liked Kotsay. It’s odd to credit the durability factor to Mark Kotsay of all players, but his health has shown to be more sustainable than Baldelli’s, and that’s why he’s in this position.

The other end of Brad Penny and John Smoltz signing with the Red Sox has finally hit, as the two players DFA were claimed on waivers.

Padres claim Virgil Vasquez off waivers

Vasquez is a righty who spent most of last season in Triple-A. Vasquez produced decent strikeout rates and is a control pitcher, walking less than 2.10 per nine, but yields too many homeruns. In 16.6 innings for the Tigers Vasquez allowed seven homeruns. As someone who sits in the low 90’s yet still uses his fastball more than half of the time, Vasquez is prone to leaving pitches over the plate and promptly watching them fly into the stands. Naturally, that makes him a fit for Petco Park.

Vasquez will join a congregation of fringe starter/reliever types in San Diego next season as the Padres attempt to gather as many lottery tickets as possible.

Rays claim Dewon Day off waivers

The Rays mark the third organization for Day since the season ended. Day spent 2008 with the Chicago White Sox, was waived, claimed by Boston, and now waived again. Day’s fastball sits in the low 90’s but can touch the mid-90’s but has issues locating. Day also throws a slider, and generates groundballs and strikeouts from it. The aforementioned Vasquez allowed 34 homeruns last season, Day has allowed about half of that during his career.

The Rays now have about 16 relief options heading to camp, where they all fall into place is anyone’s guess.

In a vacuum, the Mets signing of Tim Redding looks fine. A one-year deal will pay Redding 2.25 million. Reasonable for a back-end starter with Redding’s history, but taken in context, the Mets cannot withdraw interest from Derek Lowe over this signing. As Eric outlined recently, the Mets rotation currently stands at something like this:

Johan Santana
John Maine
Mike Pelfrey
Jonathon Niese

With Redding thrown in either as the four or the five, depending on how high the Mets are on Niese. Eric concluded the Mets were near the Phillies rotation level, but simply being equal shouldn’t be the goal. The Mets are high on the win and revenue curve, suggesting they have added incentive to sign Lowe.

I previously stated that Redding’s signing isn’t bad in a vacuum, and it’s not. CHONE has him at a 4.98 FIP and Marcels at 4.77. If he falls in between that over ~ 160 innings, Redding is worth around 1 win. If he lives up to that, the Mets are getting a bargain deal. The problem is adding another sub-average starter to a rotation stricken with average all ready.

Lowe’s expectations are closer to 3.5 wins, adding him and Redding (in place of Niese) has the Mets looking at a 3-4 win improvement. Instead, they’re actually downgrading from Oliver Perez, albeit at a more suitable price and rolling with two 1-1.5 win starters in the back of their rotation.

Redding: solid addition, but not the one the Mets should be focused on.

Did you know that FanGraphs leaderboards featured splits? It’s a feature I feel goes underutilized, and thus I wanted to devote a post to it. There’s a ton of interesting tidbits you can pull from using the split options, and while the “month” options are interesting, the “Past 3 Calendar Years” filter has my eye. Here’s some of what I’ve learned from using it.

Albert Pujols pretty much owns at everything. Pujols leads all qualifiers in WPA (21.04) while only Lance Berkman (16.22) sits over 15, and only two handful of others sit above 10. The anti-Albert is Ivan Rodriguez (-5.3), fellow senior citizen Omar Vizquel (-4.58) sits in “second”, fellow “pudge” Yuniesky Betancourt (-4.09), and Jeff Francouer (-4.06) round out players with -4 or less WPA.

Pujols also leads the league in wOBA (.442) and wRAA, and wRC, and basically everything that matters. Chipper Jones (.438) is second and the rest of the top five includes David Oritz (.438), Alex Rodriguez (.421), and Matt Holliday (.420). Following our theme of the good and the bad, the bottom five are Omar Vizquel (.295), Jason Kendall (.298), Pedro Feliz (.303), Yuniesky Betancourt (.307), and Khalil Greene (.308).

Some other offensive stats:

BB%
Best: Pat Burrell (17.7%), Adam Dunn (17.2%), Jim Thome (17.1%), Ortiz (16.5%), Todd Helton (16.1%)
Worst: Betancourt (2.9%), Bengie Molina (3.6%), I. Rodriguez (3.8%), Jose Lopez (4%), A.J. Pierzynski (4.2%)

K%
Best: Juan Pierre (5.7%), Placido Polanco (6.2%), Betancourt (8.9%), Kendall (9.1%), B. Molina (9.4%)
Worst: Ryan Howard (33.5%), Dunn (32.7%), Thome (30%), Bill Hall (29.6%), Mike Cameron (28.3%)

BABIP
Best: Derek Jeter (.367), Holliday (.365), C. Jones (.361), Ichiro Suzuki (.359), Miguel Cabrera (.353)
Worst: Andruw Jones (.255), Pedro Feliz (.261), Ken Griffey Jr. (.272), Greene (.273), Kevin Millar (.275)

LD%
Best: Mark Loretta (25.3%), Michael Young (24.8%), Freddy Sanchez (24.7%), Helton (23.7%), Chone Figgins (23.2%)
Worst: Gary Matthews Jr. (15.9%), Feliz (16%), Dan Uggla (16.1%), Luis Castillo (16.2%), Jason Bay (16.3%)

O-Swing%
Best: Castillo (12.9%), Brian Giles (14.8%), Bobby Abreu (15.7%), Troy Glaus (15.9%), C. Jones (16.2%)
Worst: Vladimir Guerrero (43.9%), Pierzynski (39.1%), I. Rodriguez (38.5%), Alfonso Soriano (37.3%), B. Molina (36.7%)

Contact%
Best: Pierre (94.5%), Castillo (94%), Polanco (93.6%), B. Giles (92.7%), Vizquel (91.9%)
Worst: Howard (66.4%), Thome (71.3%), Dunn (71.4%), A. Jones (72.1%), Brad Hawpe (72.3%)

Dollars
Best: Pujols ($100), Chase Utley ($93.1), David Wright ($84.5), Grady Sizemore ($81.3), Alex Rodriguez ($81.2)
Worst: Griffey Jr. ($0.8), Melky Cabrera ($1.8), Millar ($3.1), Jose Bautista ($3.5), Craig Biggio ($3.7)

Try using the leaderboards yourself to look at the last three years of defensive and pitching performances.

At some point, one has to feel bad for the Baltimore Orioles. 2009 was never going to be a year where they competed for a playoff berth, but last year the American League East had four of the five best teams in the AL. Now a few of those teams have added the likes of Mark Teixeira, C.C. Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Pat Burrell, John Smoltz, and Brad Penny. If that’s not bad enough, the Orioles rotation might look something like this:

Jeremy Guthrie (403 career IP, 4.58 FIP)
Mark Hendrickson (977.6 career IP, 4.5 FIP)
Garrett Olson (165 career IP, 5.28 FIP)
Koji Uehara
Radhames Liz (109 career IP, 6.08 FIP)

Yeah…that doesn’t appear particularly pretty, does it? Well, their other options include Brian Bass and Brian Burres. Applaud the Orioles for not rushing their pitching prospects, but 2009 is going to be anything but fun for their rotation. Is it possible that this could be the worst rotation in recent memory? Over the past five years, the worst rotations, as told by FIP are:

2008 Orioles 5.38
2007 Nationals 5.45
2006 Royals 5.50
2005 Royals 5.07
2004 Devil Rays 5.27

The average FIP of the four O’s starters is 5.11, yes it’s an extremely rough estimate since we’re not taking innings into account and we’re assuming nobody improves or declines. Uehara becomes the wild card. Keith Law notes that Uehara and Camden Yards are not a good mix due to Uehara’s homerun tendencies. At the same time, Uehara walks next to none, less than 1.2 per nine in his Nippon career. Law notes the same concerns with Hideki Irabu, Tomo Ohka, and Kei Igawa. Their career FIPs are 4.97, 4.46, and 6.19 respectively.

The Orioles also have interest in Braden Looper and Tim Redding, so while they might have the worst rotation in baseball next season, odds are, they won’t even be as poor as 2008’s edition.

Marlins sign Scott Proctor (1/750k)

Non-tendering Joe Nelson over ~800k and then signing Scott Proctor for 750k is just flat out bizarre. Nelson will not repeat his 2008, but he seems like a safer bet to be decent than the seemingly overworked Proctor. The victim of a poor BABIP (.350), Proctor compounded problems with 5.59 walks and 1.63 homeruns per nine. Proctor managed a career high in strikeouts per nine as well, but his FIP was a replacement level-esque 4.97. The Marlins have a good history of turning nothings into somethings, but this one is a bit puzzling.

Rangers sign Derrick Turnbow (minor league deal)

Another reliever who had a weird 2008. Turnbow lost complete control of his pitches, so much so that in one Triple-A performance he threw the ball into the backstop netting while warming up. That’s not to say Turnbow was ever precise with his control but if there’s a such thing as negative command, he had it. In limited Triple-A time (18 innings) Turnbow walked 41 and in 24.3 innings combined Turnbow walked 54 batters. In 2007, Turnbow walked 46 in 68 innings.

Yankees sign Angel Berroa and John Rodriguez (minor league deals)

Berroa is still finding jobs despite being a replacement level shortstop. Calling him the new Jose Macias is a little harsh, but he doesn’t field or hit even the slightest bit well, and most of his value is gained by simply playing shortstop. Between Cody Ransom (who should not play shortstop, but likely will) and Berroa the Yankees will use one in place of Wilson Betemit. Credit the Yankees for going the cheap replacement level route rather than the expensive replacement level route. It is better to pay the Andy Cannizaro’s of the world 400k for their efforts than give millions to Aaron Miles.

Rodriguez is organizational filler, and split 2008 with the Rays and Mets. He’s worth mentioning, since Rodriguez could probably be a decent bench outfielder on a non-contender.

Cardinals sign Royce Ring (minor league deal)

If one thing about Tony LaRussa is for certain, it is his love of situational lefties. Ring marks the third LOOGY acquired by the Cards this off-season, joining Trever Miller and Ian Ostlund. Like Ostlund, Ring was a member of what I called “F.A.T.: LOOGYS” or in English, Freely Available Talent useful as left-handed one out guys. Back to the Cardinals, they’re attempting to replace the duo of Randy Flores and Ron Villone from last season, and aren’t buying into the ideology that you have to buy a dependable LOOGY.

Ring is a nice addition, and should prove to be a worthwhile one thanks to heavy groundball inducing stuff, and that Ring’s fastball/curve combination plays better to lefties, as seen below. Last season’s numbers are proof of bad luck rather than bad talent, and that should show up in 2009.