Boston is rolling the dice twice more this off-season, and no, not Daisuke Matsuzaka. As if adding oft-injured Brad Penny wasn’t risky enough, the Red Sox appear close to signing both outfielder/DH Rocco Baldelli and pitcher John Smoltz to one-year deals with heavy incentives, including 5.5 million for Smoltz, pushing the potential worth of his deal to 10 million. Baldelli’s terms have yet to be announced.

Baldelli’s story is well known. Only a few weeks ago news was release a development in his ongoing health battle, leading to a sense of newfound optimism concerning playing time. Last year, Baldelli returned to the Rays in September and finished a game in which he started in the outfield only once, that coming in the playoffs. The Rays recent signing of Pat Burrell and prior acquisition of Matt Joyce left them without a roster spot to offer Baldelli, and thus he became a free agent. In-game television reports quoted Baldelli as saying his legs would begin to shake and feel as if they were burning during his stints in the field.

That makes the new diagnosis the wild card in this deal, if Baldelli can sustain health, he should be a worthwhile forth outfielder, however if this is more of the same, there’s no way of telling whether an injury to J.D. Drew will also lead to an injury to Baldelli, and a promotion to Jonathan Van Every. Obviously the latter is the worst case scenario, but something Boston will have to have in mind.

With the playing time concerns in mind, it’s hard to get a grasp on Baldelli’s value. In 90 plate appearances, Baldelli was worth nearly half of a win. Of course, the last moderately healthy season Baldelli had he was worth 3.3 wins, and 1.4 in the couple prior to that. If he can stay healthy and simply play at a near league average rate, the Sox are likely going to get more value in return than they’ll pay him.

Smoltz will soon be 42 and is recovering from shoulder surgery that limited his 2008 appearances. Smoltz should be ready by the summer, but there is talk of a return-by-date bonus, which seems a bit reckless. Yes, the Sox want as much of Smoltz as possible, but pushing him to return by a certain date in order to earn some more cash is a recipe for disaster, especially if he is not ready. As for his actual role, it is unknown whether Smoltz would pitch in relief or as a starter, and how the Sox will handle their rotation if Smoltz, Penny, and Tim Wakefield remain healthy and effective at once – although that’s a problem they wouldn’t mind.

Whenever he ends up pitching, Smoltz will likely be worth the money. Even with all the incentives earned, the Sox are paying for two wins. It’s possible the surgery costs Smoltz some effectiveness, and even if we tack on a few runs to his 3.50 FIP that Marcels projects and 19 runs above replacement that CHONE projects, Smoltz still projects to be worth the base amount of 5.5 million. Even if Smoltz doesn’t work out, you have to appreciate Boston’s aggressiveness and awareness when dealing with injury-prone starters. Yes, they bring headaches, but if they’re good like Smoltz 50 innings given to him instead of another pitcher can be worth the hassle.

It’s an off-season of risks for Boston, which makes the 2009 AL East even more exciting.

Indians sign Carl Pavano (1/1.5)

About a month ago, I covered Pavano and his prospects moving forward. The story remains the same, if healthy, Pavano can be a decent pitcher, but health has been an outlier for Pavano in the past few seasons. This is a relatively low risk move since the Indians are paying for 0.2 wins, something that Pavano should easily surpass unless he misses the entire season. If it works out, the move can help to cement the Indians “rebound” status in 2009, and helps to continue their off-season makeover.

Mariners sign Tyler Walker (1/?)

Seattle added Eric Hull to the bullpen fray last week, and now Walker. Walker missed most of 2006 and 2007 thanks to injuries, but worked through more than 50 innings last season as a Giant. Using a 92 MPH fastball and 83 MPH slider heavily, Walker racked up the strikeouts last season in one of his better seasons. Homerun tendencies are a bit alarming given his groundball/flyball rates, which are seemingly close during any given season.

Since 2005 Walker has worked primarily in higher-leverage situations, with a two-year stint as closer thrown in. Jack Zduriencik’s crew will have to figure out if Aaron Heilman or Brandon Morrow is their closer, but it’s safe to assume Walker will be one of the primary set-up men in Seattle’s bullpen next season. Assuming the money is reasonable, it’s hard to find fault here.

Rays sign Randy Choate and Julio DePaula (minor league deals)

Last off-season Choate signed a major league deal with the Milwaukee Brewers and promptly got comfortable with his Nashville apartment. This season things could be a bit different – the apartment might be in Durham, woo! In all seriousness though, with the Rays signing of Pat Burrell and apparent desire to move some bullpen payroll, Choate has the opportunity to make the roster as a low-cost LOOGY. Choate possesses an unconventional delivery and has groundball inducing stuff and will likely wind up with the major league club eventually in 2009.

DePaula, not to be confused with Jorge, saw his first majors action last season with Minnesota. As mentioned, the Rays are looking to move some payroll and groundball extraordinaire Chad Bradford could be the one to go. DePaula induces grounders and could profile as a low-leverage reliever. The more likely route involves hanging out in Choate’s Durham apartment while Choate relieves in St. Petersburg.

The Washington Nationals have taken swings at two free agent sluggers and have yet to make contact. General Manager Jim Bowden ended 2008 watching Mark Teixeira sign with the New York Yankees for less money, and despite a reportedly similar offer on the table, Bowden brings in 2009 with the loss of Milton Bradley. The Nationals will now decide whether to take a run at another free agent, or instead maintain building through the draft and cost efficient additions.

Rumors about Bowden and Adam Dunn will be the buzz until Dunn signs. Familiarity derives from the duo’s time in Cincinnati. Of course, Manny Ramirez is still out there along with Bobby Abreu, but none of them should be overly appealing to the Nationals. Remember, the Nationals will have the first overall pick along with the tenth pick – assuming they fail to sign Aaron Crow – in June’s draft. Before they attempt to sign any heavily priced free agents, they need to commit to drafting and signing the best available talent, otherwise reorganize their priorities.

Admittedly, Dunn (or whomever) is easier to sell to a disgruntled fan base as a sign of commitment. Selling the brand is important, and part of that is establishing players as “Nationals”, still yet, the long-term health of the franchise will weigh heavier on the draft selections than whomever the Nationals decide to sign.

59 wins earned the Nationals the worst record in baseball. Even if we assume some progression from the youngsters along with some better health, that leaves them on the wrong end of .500. Dunn, Abreu, and Ramirez all share poor fielding, and the Nationals currently have about a trillion outfielders on their roster. 1+2 does not equal 4 which makes this even more puzzling. Here’s a look at how Dunn stacks up to Willie Harris, the Nats incumbent left fielder.

Harris: -4.4 batting runs, 19.1 fielding runs, 14.1 replacement adjustment, -3.3 positional. 3.4 wins.

Dunn: 28.6 batting runs, -22.8 fielding runs, 21.7 replacement adjustment, -8 positional. 1.9 wins.

Of course, Harris had a career year and is unlikely to reach those heights again, but he’s also being paid 1.5 million. Even if Dunn takes a Pat Burrell-esque 2/16 deal, Dunn will have to be 1.25 wins better than Harris to be worth the difference. This is without noting Elijah Dukes and Lastings Milledge, both of whom who should be playing, Austin Kearns, Josh Willingham, Nick Johnson, Wily Mo Pena, and the minor league outfielders the Nationals have signed.

The decision to sign a corner outfielder/first baseman type just doesn’t seem like a smart allocation of assets for the Nationals. Long-term, investing the money into young talent is a better solution than an unsustainable boost in jersey and ticket sales.

The biggest loser at the hands of an over-saturated designated hitter market is none other than the Big Hurt himself, Frank Thomas. 40-years-old and finally removed from a nightmarish 2008 season, Thomas is recovering from a right quad strain that kept him out for the majority of the second half. Eric covered the corner outfield/DH types not too long ago, so how does Thomas stack up?

Last season was hardly the first time Thomas’ right quadriceps caused a stir. The same injury cost him a few weeks in 2006, which just so happens to be the renaissance of Thomas’ career. Recall that Thomas was in his first season with the Oakland Athletics on a contract suitable more for Charles Thomas than Frank. Not only did Thomas out earn his contract by 12 million, but he also earned himself a multiple year contract with the Toronto Blue Jays, where again he would hit well enough to be worth eight-figures. Thomas and the Jays would have a falling out in early 2008, leading to his termination and return to the place of revival.

As an Athletic, Thomas saw his on-base percentage jump to .364, but still lacked the power that made him synonymous with homeruns in the 1990’s. As mentioned, Thomas’ quad would end his season early, but he still found a way to be worth positive value in 2008, finishing at 0.4 wins, or roughly 1.9 million.

Statistically, Thomas was fine. His line drive rates were in line with expectations, along with his batting average on balls in play, and walk rates. A slight increase in strikeout rates certainly was not to blame for his power collapse, so what gives? Thomas’ HR/FB percentage again declined, a trend that dates back to 2006. Down to 7.9%, Thomas would only hit eight homeruns, half of his total extra base hits.

Moving forward, the question is whether Thomas power was sapped due to his quad injury, or if this collapse is for real. It’s worth noting that this was the second worst offensive season of Thomas career behind 2001 which was also derailed by injuries. If teams feel comfortable placing the troubles on the big man’s right leg, which passes the logic test – Thomas leg-drive certainly plays a role in generating bat speed and power – Thomas can make a decent low-cost designated hitter option, capable of outplaying his paycheck.

Orioles sign Mark Hendrickson (1/1.5 mil)

Some MLB.com headline writers are comedians in their spare time. For example: “Hendrickson signing solidifies O’s staff”. Taken in context the signing is decent. Hendrickson is a stop-gag for the Orioles until their youthful pitchers are ready for the majors. The deal isn’t expensive nor long. Andy McPhail is fully aware of what 2009 will hold for the O’s and is committing against rushing prospects like Matt Wieters, Chris Tillman, and Jake Arrieta.

As for Hendrickson, he looks like Randy Johnson and throws like John Halama. At 6’9” you would imagine a history in basketball, but did you know he actually played for the Philadelphia 76ers for a few seasons? Hendrickson turned to baseball in1998 and hasn’t looked back. Hendrickson’s best season came in 2006 as a swingman, starting only 15 of the 39 games he appeared in for the Dodgers. Hendrickson underwent eye surgery in the off-season before signing with the Marlins, but didn’t see improved statistics. In fact, Hendrickson’s walk rates showed decline. CHONE has Hendrickson worth 1.2 WAR next season and anything higher than 0.2 WAR is going to turn this signing into profit.

Dodgers sign Claudio Vargas (1/400k, potential for 1.4 mil in incentives)

One could’ve pegged Vargas as a potential Oriole as well, but alas it wasn’t to be. Vargas spent 2008 with the Mets, throwing 37 innings with a 4.51 FIP and lowered strikeout rates. It’s worth noting Vargas velocity averaged out about a mile per hour less than 2007 and two below 2005/2006 averages. Historically, Vargas shows slight favoritism to flyballs. CHONE has Vargas equal to Braden Looper and Freddy Garcia amongst others with right around one WAR projected. You have to give Ned Colletti props for the signing, considering the Dodgers are getting him for the minimum, or at worst ~2 million.

Mariners sign Eric Hull (minor)

A former Dodger farm hand, Hull is a University of Portland product with decent numbers in the minor leagues. Too short to start, Hull has spent the past three seasons in the bullpen and produced moderate success with K/9s of 9.62, 11.1, and 10.54 and FIPs of 4.1, 2.51, and 2.60. In his brief major league stint Stull relied on a low-90’s fastball and an upper-70’s curveball. One would assume Hull will get some time with the major league team this season.

Blue Jays sign Randy Ruiz, Raul Chavez, and Mike Maroth (minor)

Ruiz isn’t quite the 31-year-old rookie, instead he was 30 last season when he made his debut. In 22 games, Ruiz possessed and OBP driven .693 OPS. That’s a bit shocking, since Ruiz’ minor league numbers suggest he has some power. A journeyman, Ruiz has played in the Reds, Orioles, Phillies, Yankees, Royals, Pirates, Giants, and Twins organizations.

Chavez spent last season with the Pirates, and much like Bako is what you’d expect from a 35-year-old back up catcher. Chavez threw out nearly 40% of attempted base stealers last season, and has a history of nailing runners. Quite a contrast to the Jays other minor league catcher invitee, Michael Barrett.

When Mike Maroth lost 21 games in 2003, he became the symbol of futility for an atrocious Detroit Tigers team. Maroth would remain with the Tigers for an additional three and a half seasons before the Tigers traded him to the Cardinals. Maroth signed with the Royals in the off-season, and threw less than eight innings before shoulder surgery ended his season. Maroth’s good for a ~5 FIP as a starter, but could be moderately more successful as a poor man’s left-handed specialist.

The Cubs posted the National League’s best record in 2008, before being defeated in the playoffs by the Los Angeles Dodgers. Despite ongoing ownership issues, Jim Hendry and crew began the off-season looking to upgrade their team, and dominos appeared close to falling as the Cubs flirted with acquiring Jake Peavy. Weeks later, the tipping point has struck, as in the past two days the Cubs have traded Mark DeRosa and Jason Marquis – the latter which is “done in principle” just unannounced – receiving in return three prospects and Luis Vizcaino, signed Aaron Miles, and seemingly reached an agreement with Milton Bradley. Oh, and they still seem interested in Peavy.

We’ll begin with the contract swap. Marquis is owed roughly 10 million next season, the final of his current dealt, while Vizcaino receives 3.5 million in 2009, and has a club option for 2010. Both teams motives are pretty clear; the Cubs wanted financial flexibility and to clear a starting pitcher logjam, the latter being something the Rockies could use.

Marquis had a so-so season in 2008. On one hand, his FIP did improve by 0.3 runs meanwhile Marquis strikeout and walk rates moved the wrong way, leading to a poor K/BB ratio. Marquis did allow fewer homeruns, yet are those the results from improved processes, or simply the product of homerun per flyball rates below his career norm? Hitters swung out of zone against Marquis more than in recent years despite nothing changing in his approach

Vizcaino continued having walk and homerun issues. As you can imagine, those two don’t mix well when placed within Coors Field. To his credit, Vizcaino did strike out quite a bit less season, and he was a victim of some BABIP bad luck. Vizcaino is somewhere between 4 and 4.5 FIP moving forward.

CHONE has Vizcaino worth ~0.2 WAR, and Marquis worth ~1 WAR. Marcels has Marquis closer to 2 WAR and Vizcaino again around ~0.2 WAR If you call the difference around ~1.3 WAR you’re talking about a difference of ~7 million, which coincidentally is almost exactly the difference in salary. The Cubs are trading from an excess with the intention of putting the difference towards a player superior to both, making this move understandable, if not perfect in return value.

The signing of Miles was simply a precursor to the DeRosa deal. The Cubs again are losing some value in their major league tradeoffs. Working with the assumption that Miles rarely (if ever) stands in at short, the Cubs are signing an average defender with a below average bat. Miles will be paid 2.2 million in 2009 and 2.7 in 2010, which is beyond questionable. 2008 was Miles first decent offensive season, driven by unsustainable BABIP and line drive totals. Once that regresses, Miles is an ordinary middle infielder. I won’t go as far as to say players like Reegie Corona and Ray Olmedo are better, but Miles simply isn’t worth an average of 2.5 million. That salary also assumes Miles will reach 0.5 WAR, something accomplished once in his career.

Plus where’s the need? Given Mike Fontenot’s placement on the roster and Ronny Cedeno sitting in purgatory, Miles offers nothing above those two. Even if Fontenot or Cedeno is part of a package for Jake Peavy, I’m still not sure the Cubs couldn’t have paid less and acquired the same level of talent as Miles, who also can’t play the outfield, something DeRosa brought to the table.

DeRosa has been a solid ~3-3.5 WAR player the past three seasons and could step in as the Indians starting second baseman, completing a left-ward shift of Tribe middle infielders – Jhonny Peralta to third and Asdrubal Cabrera to short – and is owed 5.5 million in the final year of his contract. The return on DeRosa consists of a package of minor league arms: Jeff Stevens, Chris Archer, and John Gaub. Stevens appears to be the closest to the majors, and could make his debut in the Cubs bullpen next season.

Finally, we reach the probable Milton Bradley signing. Since there’s a lack of concrete details out, we’ll assume this makes him the starting right fielder and not in center. This leaves Reed Johnson and Kosuke Fukudome (along with Joey Gathright) fighting for the center field job. The biggest concern about Bradley is his durability and volatile nature. Expecting 100+ games from Bradley in the field seems a bit reckless. We’ll wait on the contract details before providing further analysis, but one things for sure: the Cubs are becoming aggressive.

One sunny afternoon not long ago, Michael Barrett punched his way into baseball culture while paying homage to legends of the past like Ty Cobb and John McGraw. Two seasons removed, Barrett has joined his second new organization since the beginning of 2007, and for the first time in quite a while, Barrett’s checks will total less than one million dollars. Barrett can thank elbow and nose injuries for that.

In December of 2003, the Montreal Expos traded to the Oakland Athletics, who then traded him to the Chicago Cubs, who then non-tendered Barrett a week later, and re-signed him later that day. That is quite a whirlwind of transactions, but alas, the Cubs would reap the reward, seeing Barrett produce three consecutive seasons with on base plus slugging percentages over .820. In 2007, Barrett would get off to a slow start and feuded with starter Carlos Zambrano, leading to a trade with the San Diego Padres.

One-and-a-half injury riddled seasons later; Barrett signed a minor league contract with the Toronto Blue Jays. It is interesting to note Barrett’s steady decline in plate appearances. The peak of appearances coming in 2004 at 506 – his first season with the Cubs – and dropping to 477, then 418, then 367, and a lowly 107 last season, that’s nothing if not consistent. Not too much can be taken from that outside of noting the injuries that have lead to a decline, including a concussion and intrascrotal hematoma. For those unfamiliar with the latter, I strongly urge against researching it. Trust me on this one.

When Barrett has played recently, he has faced bad luck on batted balls, with BABIPs of .270 (2007) and .224 (2008), both are below his career average (.282), and generally unlucky given the amount of liner drives hit. Barrett’s plate approach has become more aggressive since 2005, swinging at an increasing number of pitches outside of the strike zone, while still making similar amounts of contact overall. With only 22% of attempted thieves caught, and a couple of double-digit passed ball seasons, Barrett is not known as a good defender behind the dish. If the Jays do call on him, it will be as a back up to Rod Barajas and a replacement to Gregg Zaun.

Interestingly Zaun and Barrett have seen the same number of attempted steals, but Zaun has caught nearly 30 more. As a straight replacement for Zaun, Barrett would seem capable of giving 300 plate appearances of near league average offense. If nothing else, the Jays can always turn to youngster Curtis Thigpen, who had a down 2008 in the minors, OPSing .577 and throwing out 16% of baserunners. Neither of which screams Thigpen’s readiness.

The Jays agent of choice this off-season has been an infirmary clerk, first adding Matt Clement and now Barrett. Undermining their low-risks, medium reward moves would be a mistake, but at the same time you have to wonder if the Jays will make a run at one of the designated hitter types available.

It appears the Boston Red Sox are not going to wait until 2009 before securing a new battery. Theo Epstein and company have agreed to terms with free agents Brad Penny (1 year, 5-8 million) and Josh Bard (1 year, 1.6 million).

Just a few days ago I noted Bard as a smart addition for the Sox. Considering the relative small risk involved, and the potential for a decent reward, you have to like the deal for the Red Sox. At 1.6 million, the Sox are paying for less than a half of a win, an investment likely to produce profit, especially considering that Bard has averaged ~1 WAR per season over his career.

Bard’s addition would seemingly lower the chances of Jason Varitek returning. Given that neither Bard or Varitek should catch knuckleballer Tim Wakefield along with George Kottaras familiarity with the pitch thanks to Charlie Zink. I guess if nothing else the Sox could either carry three catchers, which seems excessive, or simply release Bard if Varitek does return, but reading between the lines neither seems overly likely.

Right-shoulder ailments ruined Brad Penny’s 2008. Actually, that’s a bit unfair, Penny’s stubbornness towards those injuries ruined his 2008. Rather than do the sensible thing by not attempting to pitch through such aches, Penny “soldiered on” and hurt both the Dodgers and his free agent stock in the process. Penny’s walk per nine rates were the highest of his career, his strikeout per nine the lowest, and his FIP the highest by a little less than half of a run. It’s safe to call 2008 the nadir of Penny’s career.

Only a slight change occurred in Penny’s velocity and pitch usage. Penny still threw ~70% fastballs that sat around 92-93, along with a good number of curveballs. 2008 did see Penny’s change, a pitch he used heavily in 2007 and no other year, fade into the back of his arsenal. It doesn’t appear Penny’s pitches were more hittable in 2008 either, despite increased homerun rates, Penny’s batted ball variety hovered around his career averages.

Penny’s contract calls for a three million dollar bonus if he reaches at least 160 innings. There’s a pretty decent chance Penny cashes in on that. Marcels says 127 innings and a 4.11 FIP, placing Penny around 2.5-3 WAR, or in other words, earning more than what his contract is worth. This suggests Justin Masterson will remain in relief and Michael Bowden along with Clay Buchholz won’t be in the rotation initially.

The Red Sox cadre consists of highly intelligent baseball folk, so to see chances taken on players like Bard and Penny makes sense, just as it did with Bartolo Colon last season.

Brian Sabean needs to do something silly soon. Like, trade Jonathan Sanchez for Jorge Cantu or Tim Lincecum for Alexis Rios silly, otherwise, the Giants are having an amusingly solid off-season. It started by adding Josh Phelps, next signing Jeremy Affeldt, and then inking Bob Howry and Edgar Renteria, but Sabean may have topped himself today by signing Randy Johnson for one year and eight million. Okay, there are some jokes to be made concerning the Giants and Johnson’s advanced age, but he’s still pretty good.

In fact, Johnson was one of the better starters in the league last season, even at 44 years of age. Johnson threw 184 innings while maintaining a 3.76 FIP, an 8.46 strikeout per nine ratio, and walking only 2.15 per nine. Johnson’s .316 batting average on balls in play is a bit higher than you would expect from a pitcher who allows 18.2% line drives, but not high enough that you can claim bad luck.

Marcels punishes Johnson for his age, but still has him throwing 158 innings with a 4.11 FIP. That’s a ~2 win improvement over 158 innings than a replacement level starter, or a slightly worse version of Kevin Correia’s 2008. If Johnson pitches to that level, he’s earned his contract, and that speaks more to the quality of the contract than the Giants expectations of Johnson. This is a far better contract than the one given to fellow senior hurler Jamie Moyer.

Johnson’s velocity was down from previous years – from 92-93 to 90-91, but even that didn’t stop the Big Unit from helping to form an outstanding rotation in Arizona. Speaking of which, now the Giants rotation is something like: Lincecum, Matt Cain, Johnson, Sanchez, and Barry Zito. That very well could be the best rotation in the National League.

Dave and Matthew have written extensively about Johnson being a bargain and Arizona mistakenly letting him walk, but both points need to be touched upon again. At the time, Matthew wrote: “[Arizona] made a huge, potentially division-costing mistake…” at the time, Johnson to the Cubs was the rumor du jour, now Johnson has landed with a division rival. Pardon the awful pun, but the Diamondbacks might be snake-bit by this move multiple times in 2009.

Congratulations to the Giants fans who’ve endured a post-Bonds world, this Giants team is looking like a potential contender for the division crown. Now, just prepare yourselves for all of the witty “Giants/Big Unit/Giant of a Pitcher” headlines sure to follow.

With Kevin Cash signing a minor league deal with the New York Yankees (certain to embark more gamesmanship talk than the move merits) and Jason Varitek hanging in limbo, the Red Sox will need to find two catchers in a rather weak catching market. Unlike most teams, Boston’s reserve catcher does not simply play on random or in day games following night games. Instead, the back-up catcher for the past few seasons is simply Tim Wakefield’s caddy. That means the Red Sox are looking for a quality starter and a back up with either experience dealing with knucklers or a willingness and aptitude to do so.

It seems likely that George Kottaras, perhaps best known for being the return on David Wells, will be the Sox reserve backstop in 2009. An offensively gifted catcher, Kottaras produced 7.6 wRAA for Pawtucket last season, and throughout his career is usually around league average. Next year’s strikeout rates could look ugly, but Kottaras does a decent job of drawing walks, which helps to offset some of the sting. As for actually catching, Kottaras looks awful. In 70 games with Pawtucket Kottaras threw out ~19% of baserunners, or 15 of 80 and had 10 passed balls. It’s worth noting that Kottaras did catch a knuckleballer in Pawtucket by the name of Charlie Zink. While it would be easy to blame that connection on Kottaras poor numbers, Kottaras body of work speaks against the notion that Zink was the catalyst for defensive ineptitude.

If Kottaras is the back-up, who is the starter? The Elias Sports Bureau all but guaranteed Jason Varitek’s career would end in a Red Sox uniform when their compensatory system crowned him as a Type-A free agent. Varitek’s not getting any younger, and if you recall, was pitiful last season. Flashing a low line drive rate while walking less and whiffing more. Fans and pundits alike will talk up Varitek’s game calling abilities along with intangibles immeasurable. Denying that such attributes exist is foolhardy; instead we’ll assume the effects are marginal until proven otherwise.

Of course, there’s also the loyalty aspect between the two sides. When Boston traded Heathcliff Slocumb to the Seattle Mariners for Derek Lowe and the 25-year-old Varitek in 1997, they had no idea a minor league catcher without a great track record of success would turn into a stalwart through a decade and two World Series championship teams. To all of those who would say the Sox owe it to Varitek, I would remind you that the Sox should be committed first and foremost to winning. Sometimes to keep that commitment, emotions must be placed aside. Varitek’s performances have yet to reach the point where it hurts the Red Sox by simply playing (1.3 WAR in 2008, three-year average of ~1.8) but he’s nearing the age where a total collapse is not unexpected.

Finding a worthwhile catcher on the free agent market is tough as usual. A name that leaps off the list in terms of low-risk medium-reward is Josh Bard. The former Sox, Bard is an interesting buy-low candidate, in large part due to bad luck. A .230 batting average on balls in play and 21.6% line drives, don’t gel whatsoever. Bard’s walk and strikeout rates remained static to his career averages, and unlike last time, catching a knuckleball will not be in the job description. Over the last three seasons, Bard’s average WAR is higher than Varitek’s, albeit in fewer plate appearances.

The other option for Boston is to acquire a catcher via trade. Texas Jarrod Saltalamacchia is the best longevity-pleasing option around. Whether the Red Sox are willing to part with the price associated with the former top prospect, (likely one of the Buccholz/Bowden/Masterson trio) is to be seen. Saltalamacchia struck out 37.4% last season, yet still found a way to walk enough to maintain a decent on-base percentage. The power shown in the minors should come soon, even if the defense remains shoddy. Saltalamacchia is only expendable because of the Rangers young studded catching surplus, the equivalent of running a gun shop during the zombie apocalypse.

Given Boston’s proficiency in managing their roster correctly, you almost have to expect the Sox to upgrade behind the dish heading into next season.