One of the most tried and true responses bound to appear in a discussion about a streaky player’s season is the one that either elevates or downs the number based on consistency. So-called reliable baseball players are more desirable than their yin-or-yang counterparts for obvious reasons: those players make better spouses. More importantly, though, having a grip on performance fluctuation is a good thing.

A mere glance at Aramis Ramirez’s .324 wOBA does his season no justice on a narrative or awareness basis. Only after a closer examination may one put to rest the fears of a washed-up Ramirez created in Cubs’ fans minds on the stillest night. After 185 plate appearances (which happened to cover the first two months of this season) Ramirez had only popped four homers with a line of .162/.227/.269. He played better in June with the saddest coincidence being that he barely played at all; a thumb injury sidelined him for all but 10 games.

Starting in July, Ramirez wiped the sleep from his eyes and bat alike. Seventeen home runs in 242 plate appearances is impressive and contributes to Ramirez’s seventh 20-plus home run season in nine seasons. Ramirez’s 35 strikeouts since the calendar flipped to July is remarkable since he struck out 43 times in April and May combined.

As for his line, try .299/.343/.594 on for size. That slugging percentage would mark a career best if he somehow extrapolated it over an entire season. Unlikely as it may be (he turns 33 next June), Ramirez will attempt the feat while wearing blue pinstripes. He holds a player option for his next season (as well documented lately) that he should exercise. By doing so, he will have the opportunity to exercise the demons that derailed his 2010, even if they reside in his thumb.

Yesterday, Dave laid out the case for Troy Tulowitzki and the National League Most Valuable Player award. While Dave’s case went deeper than Tulowitzki’s September, there is a case to be made that he’s only the second best Rockies’ offensive player over the last 30 days, and that makes him the second best offensive player in the league over that span.

If one is willing to extend their arbitrary timeline beyond the design of a calendar and into the length of most months instead, then Carlos Gonzalez’s name perches atop their wOBA leaderboard. Gonzalez’s line lists at .436/.513/.792, whereas Tulowitzki sits at only .343/.412/.843. Their wOBA are .535 and .522, respectively, and their BABIP at .481 and .292. The last point is crucial since it tells us a bit about how the pair differ. Just about every other ball Gonzalez puts in play is going for a hit.

Tulowitzki’s ISO is an incredible .500 and Gonzalez’s is only .356. For perspective, Barry Bonds’ career ISO is .309 and his 2001 season (when he hit 73 home runs, not that anyone needs reminding) ISO sat at .536. Both are bringing the pop, with Tulowitzki bringing it in a 24-pack as opposed to Gonzalez’s one liter. Not too shabby considering Tulowitzki has double the amount of home runs that Gonzalez has.

One factor that should be noted is that Gonzalez has four intentional walks over the last 30 days. That would be two more than Tulowitzki, who bats after Gonzalez, which sort of goes against intuitive thinking. After all, Tulowitzki is the guy hitting everything into other galaxies while Gonzalez is only hitting balls out of this orbit. Those free passes do help Gonzalez’s wOBA, which skews his lead just a bit.

Nevertheless, the Rockies have the National League’s best hitter over the last 30 days. And they have the second best hitter, too. The order is mostly moot.

There are numerous methods for one to illustrate the streaky tendencies in a batter’s season. If I were to gamble on such a topic, I would feel safe guessing that Dave Allen would whip up a nifty graph, whereas Carson Cistulli would write each month in iambic pentameter. I’m neither as creative or talented as those men, so instead, allow me to take the old-fashioned approach to the science of month-by-month analysis with Adam Jones as the subject.

April (.223/.245/.388)
May (.279/.303/.375)

Creating outs is the greatest crime in this game of baseball. In April, Jones created many outs. Not only did he create outs by not having his batted balls turn into hits or striking out, but also by refusing to walk. He finished the month with more double plays hit into than walks. A .303 on-base percentage is horrendous and yet represented an upgrade in this circumstance. Through the first two month of the season, Jones’ line displayed an empty (and mediocre) batting average and no power. What, do tell, is going on with our Adam Jones, wondered Orioles’ fans.

June (.320/.353/.600)

Merely a coincidence that Jones and June are spelled alike? Sure, but is it merely a coincidence that Jones did his best to quench those curiosities during June? Some things we simply aren’t meant to know. For his part, Jones hit eight home runs in 100 at-bats and walked four times despite walking only five times through the first two months.

July (.257/.315/.376)

The sequel to his hot June was a letdown. His inhibitions against walking are never at their worst than when he is, too. A quick glance at Jones’ O-Swing% gives us some good and bad news. The bad is that he’s swinging out of the zone as often as ever. However, so is the rest of the league, meaning that, relative to his peers, Jones is actually swinging out of the zone less often than in previous years.

August (.304/.382/.468)
September (.386/.449/.591)

A double-scooping of good news to go with that tidbit and these two extremely good months is that Jones’ O-Swing% is down (relative to the league) for the second straight season. September is Jones’ little black dress while August is the business casual that Orioles fans request he wear more often when on the job for the next few seasons.

Months like August are why folks held superstar aspirations for the 25-year-old. Months like April, May, and July are why he’s yet to reward those aspirations with performance. To his credit, Jones is about the best bet in the Orioles’ lineup for between 1.8 and 2 wins during any given season and his age suggests that maybe, just maybe, he can still become the superstar that left Mariner fans in the gutter when Bill Bavasi moved him in a stupor.

In a season defined by Murphy’s Law, the Mariners’ inability to field a worthwhile hitting catcher ranks lower on the repair list than it would in most years. The Mariners’ collection of backstops has combined for a .246 wOBA. As faith has it, the 2005 Seattle club was the last team to have a catching staff so inept at the plate that they combined for a positional wOBA under .250. In other words, Seattle has seen this movie before.

The 2005 edition of Seattle’s finest highlighted their patent on Everlasting Gapstoppers. Miguel Olivo, Pat Borders, Yorvit Torrealba, Rene Rivera, Wiki Gonzalez, Dan Wilson, and even Miguel Ojeda contributed to the mess. This year’s group is more concise, with Adam Moore being the most responsible. Moore and Olivo actually have more in common from their awful seasons than one would suspect. Moore is older now than Olivo then, but their respective lines stack up well:

Olivo (’05): .151/.172/.276
Moore (’10): .169/.199/.260

Olivo and Moore each struck out in nearly a third of their at-bats and, while Olivo walked once for every 12.5 strikeouts, Moore is walking once every 11. Don’t mistake Moore as the only contributor to the awfulness. Rob Johnson and Eliezer Alonzo both own wOBA lines below .265, and Josh Bard’s .303 shines bright in comparison.

The free agent catching market is rarely strong but the Mariners would be hard-pressed to find a downgrade. After all, their wOBA is closer to Mario Mendoza’s career mark (.231) than Paul Bako’s (.275). The M’s won’t respond like they did in 2005: by drafting Jeff Clement during the season then adding Kenji Johjima in the winter. Jack Zduriencik has shown a savvy for trades, so maybe the answer arrives from that form. Whatever happens, history suggests the 2015 Mariners’ backstops are going to be atrocious.

For your enjoyment:

The good writing entry

Jonah Keri’s A Not-So-Brief History of Pitching Injuries

Easily one of the finest pieces of baseball writing and reporting produced this year. The plethora of quality here left me feeling jaded as I decided which paragraph to display in order to entice your click-through. In the end, I think this quote by Barry Zito exemplifies that he is more aware than expected:

“Baseball has always been the good old boys sport,” said Zito, whose father Joe was such a big believer in long-toss that he insisted on a clause in Barry’s first contract guaranteeing that the A’s wouldn’t interfere with his son’s regimen. “You’ve got a lot of old-school guys with old-school methods. It seems other sports will adjust and change with technology, whereas baseball has always been slow to adjust to the times, and to new technologies.”

The hardcore statistics entry

Kincaid’s ZiPS ROS Projections as Estimates of True Talent

This is FanGraphs-related. There is a lot of math there that supports what can be intuitive. The smaller the sample size, the more volatile the results can be. There is a tendency to ignore what exactly the projected numbers stand for. Maybe that is unavoidable, so an occasional reminder like this requires my appreciation.

The Joe Posnanski entry

Amazing Baseball Stuff

A collection of worthwhile baseball writing without Posnanski is like the best of soul music without any Marvin Gaye. Much like the aforementioned Keri piece, this much quality spread throughout this much quantity produces an insane overload that we should be more thankful for than we already are. What I’m saying is that Posnanski is a robot.

Jake Westbrook made his ninth start with the St. Louis Cardinals last night. Fittingly, against the San Diego Padres – the third team in involved in the trade that landed Westbrook in St. Louis. Westbrook did what he’s done since: pitch well and get massive amounts of groundballs.

Wise men say Westbrook always has been a groundball extraordinaire and that would be correct – they are called wise men for a reason. The 32-year-old’s groundball rate has increased from 53% to 62% since switching teams. That number increased after his performance versus the Padres. Eight innings pitched, three strikeouts and walks alike, no earned runs, and 26 balls in play. Seventeen – or 65% — scored as groundballs, with three as liners and the rest as flies.

Many credit Dave Duncan for positively affecting many a loathsome pitcher’s career. Westbrook’s time with Duncan is only in its infancy, but there are some signs in pitch usage that could signify what the future may hold. Whether under Duncan’s advice or demand, Westbrook is throwing more fastballs now than he did with Cleveland. Pitchfx data also has him tossing fewer cutters, although I did not confirm whether that is a classification issue with the sequential increase in sliders.

Beyond peripheral alterations, Westbrook’s performance has changed too. Unlike with the pitch usage metamorphosis, which is hard to detail as a pro, or a con, we know that Westbrook walking fewer batters while striking more out is a good thing. Or, at least, should be a good thing. Westbrook’s xFIP is down exactly a run and his FIP and ERA with subtractions of nearly the same magnitude.

Can he be this good heading forward? Can just a league switch really change who a pitcher is? The National League Central features the two worst team on-base percentages in the National League (Pirates/Astros) with the Cubs not far behind. Three of his seven starts entering the Padres’ game had come against those Pirates/Astros’ squads, raising issues over whether wise men would agree that his numbers contain a good degree of mendacity.

Whatever the answer, the results to date have been worthwhile.

Paul Konerko opened with one of the finest months of the season by popping 11 home runs in his first 74 at-bats and hitting .297/.413/.784. Although that line suggests otherwise, Konerko’s BABIP in April sat a bare .193. The change to May brought a few extra hits of non-homer variety, but Konerko’s BABIP still sat around .250 for the season. Star slugger suffering from BABIP issues is one of the most basic of plots filmed on diamond sets, but that story is not the one played out here. Instead, opposing defenses have gone from Shamwow levels of absorption to that of a Casper. Just check out Konerko’s BABIP by month since:

June: .403
July: .333
August: .449
September: .355

Unsurprisingly, Konerko’s wOBA remains high, at .423 through 579 plate appearances. Anytime a 34-year-old offensive-minded first baseman posts a career best season its worth taking note, but it feels like maybe Konerko has been looked over. For instance, did you know that Konerko’s wOBA – albeit unadjusted for park – is the third highest amongst first basemen this season? Of course not. Aubrey Huff is the positional winner of the “Huh, he’s having a good year?” award, yet Konerko is doing a fine job himself.

Not only that, but Konerko is doing it with mostly the same underlying statistics with the exception of a career best BABIP. The twist in Konerko’s story is that he is a free agent at season’s end. I’ll leave the Crowdsourcing on Konerko’s next deal to Senior Cameron, but I would expect some level of disagreement on just how many years Konerko will received based on what looks like an aberration of a season. Maybe Konerko will leave the Sox, but much like this season, I don’t think most foresee that occurring.

When the Atlanta Braves signed Derek Lowe before the 2009 season, they probably never envisioned him producing strikeout totals that mimic the Johnsons of the pitching world (Walter, Randy, or Josh, no difference). Predicting low whiff totals turns out to be a good expectation because Lowe would have disappointed; instead the team can stand back staring amusingly at his most recent box score like the rest of us.

On Monday night, Lowe managed to strike out 12 Washington Nationals within eight innings. Such a factoid was lost in the marquee matchups with playoff implications but 12 K’s stand out for Lowe in particular as it represents a career high in a single game. In fact, Lowe had previously struck out double digit batters in only two games. For comparison’s sake, Brandon Webb has more than a dozen games of that variety. Lowe is a sinkerballer, sure, and one who has spent time in the bullpen as well, but he’s just not a strikeout guy.

The notables include most of the Nationals’ lineup, but Ian Desmond contributed heavily to Lowe’s night as the youngster struck out three times on 15 pitches. Mike Morse fell twice (in three at-bats) on 11 pitches and Roger Bernadina twice on 12 pitches spread out over three at-bats as well. It was just one of those nights for the Nationals’ lineup, as Billy Wagner would strike out the side in the ninth on 12 pitches himself.

All told, Lowe recorded a .254 WPA, one of his better starts this season and a stark contrast from two times through the rotation ago, when he recorded one of the worst starts of his career.

Understanding that writers pen some articles purely for narrative is key. Jon Paul Morosi filed essentially a game report about the Rays/Yankees affair last night, framing the starting pitcher matchup as one of dueling Cy Young contenders. Nothing big to see here, but Morosi ropes Felix Hernandez into the mix so as to use a few quotes about how the Cy Young winner should come from a team in the playoff hunt performing well in games that matter.

If Morosi (and others) believe the latter requirement to be true, then their narrative should also expand its scope to include Francisco Liriano — who, like David Price and CC Sabathia, should shine as one of the game’s most excellent lefties on the postseason stage. Since the second half has begun – and let’s face it, if Liriano imploded afterwards, folks would say his season only excelled in the meaningless portions — Liriano has been better than his competitors. Even by old school means:

Liriano 10 GS, 7-0 W-L, 2.22 ERA, 2.95 SO/BB
Sabathia 12 GS, 7-3 W-L, 2.93 ERA, 2.78 SO/BB
Price 11 GS, 5-2 W-L, 3.28 ERA, 2.23 SO/BB

As many wins, lower ERA, and a better strikeout-to-walk ratio. Did these games matter? The Twins started the second half with a playoff probability just under 30% (according to CoolStandings.com) whereas Tampa Bay and New York had likelihoods over 75%. Three of Liriano’s post-break starts have come against the White Sox – the team battling Minnesota for the division crown – and he won each of them.

Liriano is not Ambrose Bierce. He is not getting lost in a revolutionary war between the ERA and FIP crowds because this season has all that and more. The innings gap is the only explainable reasoning for his absence; and even then, Liriano and Price’s innings totals are closer than Price’s and Sabathia’s. Small market, big payroll, fat stats, and a baby face; if everyone wants to give this award to a playoff-bound southpaw, why not give it to the one who combines the best aspects about Price and Sabathia’s stories?

Last night, Joe Maddon displayed his willingness to run through every available option on the fly without erring into the danger zone of allowing momentary passion to override logic. Take his treatment of David Price. After eight innings, the score sat at a deadlocked 0-0. Price had thrown 114 pitches while allowing five baserunners. Maddon could have sent him back out there, but he didn’t. It goes beyond raw pitch counts, with the Rays’ coaching staff taking leverage into account when analyzing when the bullpen should be installed in place of a tiring starter. Nobody thinks it’s a bad idea to send out the young ace for one more inning versus a division rival with first place on the line until something goes wrong.

Maddon used Rafael Soriano, Joaquin Benoit, and Grant Balfour in that order from the ninth inning onward. If asked to pluck the three finest relievers in the Rays’ pen, ostensibly that’s the correct selection. The pen did its job, going three innings while allowing only two baserunners. Although, somewhat oddly, failing to record a strikeout.

As for non-pitching moves.

Maddon pinch hit Dioner Navarro for the designated hitter – Willy Aybar – in the eighth against CC Sabathia. Why? So Navarro could lay down a bunt and advance the runner to second with nobody out. Bunting in the situation is defensible given the run scoring environment. Navarro is among the team’s more skilled bat handlers while also being the best backstop defensively. Maddon traded the designated hitter spot to move Navarro behind the plate in the ninth.

Maddon would also pinch hit for Sean Rodriguez (the starter at second base who moved to left field after Carl Crawford’s ejection) with Matt Joyce against Chad Gaudin. In the 10th, he would pinch hit for Jason Bartlett with Brad Hawpe – who would play right field – and Maddon also used Dan Johnson in place of the pitcher’s spot. Ben Zobrist moved from right field to second base and Reid Brignac – whose idol appears to be Crawford in how he’s dressing and setting up his stance – would move from second to shortstop before hitting the game-winning home run.

In the end, the results will be used to judge Maddon, but the processes leading up to the results instill the confidence in Maddon being among the game’s best managers.