The introduction of the second wild-card playoff team in each league in 2012 ignited the latest in a never-ending round of debates between baseball purists and modernists. Purists argued that the expansion of the playoff field cheapened the regular season, bringing it closer in line with the other major sports in terms of percentage of teams qualifying for the postseason. Major League Baseball, on the other hand, argued that it would keep a larger number of clubs in the pennant race, hopefully jacking up attendance and TV ratings in the process. From a competitive standpoint, the change really didn’t seem to be that big of a deal. It basically pitted teams ranked somewhere between fifth and 12th in MLB’s overall pecking order in a one-game showdown, with the side benefit of no longer subjecting a division winner to a “one game and out” end after a successful regular season.

It’s a little bit different scenario this time around in the National League. If today’s standings hold up over the next three weeks, we will be treated to a baseball rarity, as the clubs with the second- and fifth-best records in all of baseball, the Pirates and Cubs, divisional rivals, face a one-game showdown for their postseason lives. For my money, this ranks right up there with any non Super Bowl one-off sporting event on the calendar; it’s a Game 7, Djokovic-Federer, and Spieth-McElroy all rolled into one. When you get down to it, it’s a matchup that would be historically rare even if the two-wild-card system had been in place since the dawn of the divisional era.

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It’s been a rocky, inconsistent year for the Seattle Mariners, for whom much was expected by many. They are likely to finish more than a couple games below .500, comfortably out of the very attainable second wild-card position. The stunted development of many of their young, homegrown players, including Mike Zunino and the since departed Dustin Ackley, was a major factor. Early on, it looked like Taijuan Walker, who just recently turned 23, was part of the problem. Around Memorial Day, he began to look like part of the solution. Which version of Walker is the one we can expect to see moving forward?

I was a member of the Mariner front office in 2010, and had extensive involvement in the amateur draft. We did not have a first-round selection that year, but did possess a sandwich-round pick, received as compensation for the loss of Adrian Beltre. As one might expect, our draft board was shot full of holes as our turn approached. We thought very highly of Walker; he was in the top 15 of our board. He was joined there by a couple of other righ-handed pitchers, Aaron Sanchez and Asher Wojciechowski, followed by a bunch of blank spaces where other draft magnets had once resided. The Blue Jays had a bunch of compensation picks that year, and selected both of those guys before our turn arrived.

We were thrilled to select Walker. Great athlete, multi-sport star, easy velocity with feel for his curve ball, very few miles on his arm. As an added bonus, he didn’t turn 18 until August of his draft year. When you’re dealing with a projectable high school athlete, in particular, those few months are actually a pretty big deal. The product of Yucaipa HS in Southern California wasn’t a sure thing, with little track record to speak of, even by high school standards, but the raw materials suggesting potential stardom were certainly in place.

He dominated from the get-go in the minors, breaking camp at full-season Low-A Clinton in his first full pro season. Each year, I compile my own ordered minor-league lists of top full-season-league position-player and starting-pitcher prospects based on performance and age relative to league and level. These basically serve as follow lists, with the orders then tweaked based on traditional scouting methods. Walker ranked in the top 20 in each of his four minor-league seasons, peaking at #7 following the 2013 season. This combination of upside and consistency marked him as a likely major-league star.

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Every year, a number of starting pitchers seemingly come out of nowhere to become significant contributors at the major-league level. Sometimes, as in the case of, say, Jacob deGrom, the sudden evolution at the major-league level is real and sustainable. In the case of the majority of these short-term success stories, the league adjusts, the pitcher is unable to, and either disappears from the major-league scene or settles into a lesser role.

Coming into the 2015 season, Brewers right-hander Taylor Jungmann appeared to be little more than a failed first-round pick, with prospects of perhaps a big-league cup of coffee in his future. Instead, he has turned out to be a bright spot in a lost season for the Brew Crew since being summoned to Milwaukee in early June. Has the big righty turned a corner, settling in for a long run in the big club’s rotation? Or is this a short-term mirage, a dream that the big righty might wake up from any moment now?

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Every year, a number of starting pitchers seemingly come out of nowhere to become significant contributors at the major-league level. Sometimes, like in the case of Jacob deGrom, the sudden evolution is real and sustainable. In the case of the majority of short-term success stories, the league adjusts, the pitcher can’t respond to those adjustments, and he disappears from the major-league scene or he settles into a lesser role.

Earlier this week, we took a look at one such pitcher who got off to a fabulous start this season before crashing to earth: the Seattle Mariners’ Mike Montgomery. Today, we’ll take a look at the player dealt to the Rays by the Mariners for Montgomery at the end of the past spring training, right-hander Erasmo Ramirez. The 25-year-old was pummeled beyond recognition in his first two outings as a Ray, but has quietly fashioned a very nice season in Tampa, with a 10-4, 3.57, traditional line at present. Have the Rays uncovered a low-cost, high-performance starting pitcher, as they have so many times in the past? Or is it a matter of time until he starts being pounded on pitches in the fat part of the zone, as he did for much of his tenure in Seattle? Let’s take a look at Ramirez’ 2015 batted-ball data and make some observations.

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Every year, a number of starting pitchers seemingly come out of nowhere to become significant contributors at the major-league level. Sometimes, like in the case of, say, Jacob deGrom, the sudden evolution at the major-league level is real and sustainable. In the case of the majority of these short-term success stories, the league adjusts, the pitcher is unable to, and either disappears from the major-league scene or settles into a lesser role.

This spring, Mariners right-hander Erasmo Ramirez was out of options, and was designated for assignment off of the 40-man roster. In these types of situations, a club is lucky to receive a fringe prospect in return. In this case, however, the Mariners were able to acquire the Rays’ version of Ramirez in lefty Mike Montgomery. His services were required at the major-league level shortly thereafter, and in his first seven starts, Montgomery was a revelation, posting a 1.62 ERA. In his last seven starts, however, he’s been more like the Book of Revelation, unfurling a 7.99 ERA. Which is the real Mike Montgomery, and might he still be someone the Mariners can be excited about moving forward? Is there really that a stark a difference between the Before and the After Model in this comparison test? Let’s take a look at Montgomery’s 2015 batted-ball data and make some observations.

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If you’re a regular reader, you may have come across my previous article on the limitations of the StatCast batted-ball data. It’s limited in size, not generating a velocity reading on just over 25% of batted balls. That wouldn’t be a huge deal if that substantial number of missed readings were randomly dispersed across BIP types, but they are not. Weakly hit balls are being missed at a much higher rate: over 56% of batted balls classified as popups were missed, as were over 28% of grounders, likely mostly of the weakly hit variety.

This limits the amount of detailed analysis that can be done, but it doesn’t eliminate it. Since the missed reading rate on fly balls (18%) and liners (17%) is much more manageable — and random — analysis of these two groups might yield some useful results. Today, let’s take a crack at calculating some park factors for the first half of the 2015 season. Read the rest of this entry »

With two-thirds of the 2015 season in the books, an innumerable number of indelible on-field moments have been permanently imprinted upon us. An almost unprecedented influx of young talent has taken hold, a second straight trading deadline swap meet has taken place, and the races for playoff berths are heating up. Off the field, however, 2015 will be remembered, at least in part by those who read these pages, as the year of the arrival of StatCast. The utilization of granular data has been infiltrating the mainstream for a few years now with the milestone arrivals of Hit Tracker and Pitch and Hit f(x), but StatCast takes it to another level, with public availability of batted-ball information, implementation of fielder-specific data on national telecasts, and from the clubs’ perspective, the introduction of detailed spin data on batted balls.

All of that said, there are some clear limitations to the usefulness of the publicly available Year I data. Before taking that information as gospel, it is vital that users place such information into the proper context, and be aware of some primary areas of concern. Read the rest of this entry »

The trading deadline has come and gone, and while it wasn’t quite as insane as last year’s, significant major leaguers and prospects of varying status changed uniforms in reasonably large numbers. Over the last couple of weeks, we’ve taken a look at each club’s respective minor league talent arsenals, from which they might be able to obtain established talent. Now, let’s take a look backward, and see which clubs traded some future for the present, and vice versa. A handful of other clubs, on the other hand, offer brightness or bleakness all around.

As we have the last couple of weeks, we’ll rank the 30 minor-league systems based upon my midseason position-player and starting-pitcher rankings. If you aren’t familiar with my minor-league lists, here is a brief refresher. They aren’t pure top-prospect lists; they basically serve as follow lists, after which traditional scouting methods are used to tweak the order. Qualification for my lists are based upon a combination of performance and age relative to league/level. The younger a prospect is at each level, the less production is required to get him onto the list. At level-specific “optimal ages” (22 at AAA, 21 at AA, 20 at High-A, 19 at Low-A), a player qualifies regardless of performance. At level-specific, much older ages (26 at AAA, 25 at AA, 24 at High-A, 23 at Low-A), you can’t qualify for the list no matter how loud your performance. Only full-season league prospects are considered.

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Last week, we took a look at each AL and NL club’s arsenal of minor-league prospects, with which they could pursue coveted established big leaguers at the deadline. A number of transactions have been made since then, so an update would be useful in advance of the anticipated storm of moves likely to take place before the sands run out of the hourglass on Friday. Which teams are best positioned to acquire the remaining plums on the market?

As we did last week, we’ll rank the 30 minor-league systems based upon my midseason position-player and starting-pitcher rankings. If you aren’t familiar with my minor-league lists, here is a brief refresher. They aren’t pure top-prospect lists; they basically serve as follow lists, after which traditional scouting methods are used to tweak the order. Qualification for my lists are based upon a combination of performance and age relative to league/level. The younger a prospect is at each level, the less production is required to get him onto the list. At level-specific “optimal ages” (22 at AAA, 21 at AA, 20 at High-A, 19 at Low-A), a player qualifies regardless of performance. At level-specific, much older ages (26 at AAA, 25 at AA, 24 at High-A, 23 at Low-A), you can’t qualify for the list no matter how loud your performance. Only full-season league prospects are considered.

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The trading deadline is nearly upon us, and if history is a guide, there could be a dizzying amount of player movement in the coming days. This season appears to be unique in a couple of ways. There seems to be a somewhat historic mismatching of pure buyers and sellers, in large part due to the insanity of the American League wild-card race. Purely by definition, is there a sure seller in that bunch?

This week, we’re previewing the deadline in a somewhat unique manner. Instead of focusing solely on club’s holes and potential targets, we’ll hone in on them from their respective talent arsenals to be drawn upon to make deadline deals. Which clubs are best — and worst — positioned to land the most attractive prizes on the market? Yesterday, we looked at the American League. Today, it’s the NL, and its somewhat more traditional stratification of buyers and sellers.

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