The trading deadline is nearly upon us, and if history is a guide, there could be a dizzying amount of player movement in the coming days. This season appears to be unique in a couple of ways. There seems to be a somewhat historic mismatching of pure buyers and sellers, in large part due to the insanity of the American League wild-card race, with no team further than eight games under .500 or out of the wild-card lead. Purely by definition, is there a sure seller in the bunch?

This week, we’ll preview the deadline in a somewhat unique manner. Instead of focusing solely on club’s holes and potential targets, we’ll hone in on them from their respective talent arsenals to be drawn upon to make deadline deals. Which clubs are best — and worst — positioned to land the most attractive prizes on the market?

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As we unwind during baseball’s midsummer break, let’s take a look at the hitters and pitchers whose first-half contact scores sat at the extremes. For those of you who haven’t read my previous work on this topic, a player’s raw contact score is determined by stripping the strikeouts and walks (Ks and BBs) from his record. Run values are applied to all other events, and scaled to league average, represented by 100. Raw contact scores aren’t adjusted for context, so some noise can remain, often caused by home park, player speed, or luck. Still, the most pertinent variable is usually contact authority and overall quality, made or allowed. Read the rest of this entry »

A couple weeks ago, we took a look at the most and least authoritative hitters of all time, utilizing raw contact scores, or production relative to the league on all plate appearances not resulting in a strikeout or walk. One of the reader comments suggested to take a look at the most productive low-authority hitters, and the least productive high-authority hitters. Earlier this week, we looked at the former, and today we discuss the latter.

First of all, a review of the methodology, and some parameters. We calculate raw contact scores by stripping away the strikeouts (Ks) and walks (BBs), and applying run values to all balls in play based on the norms for that era. The results are then scaled to 100. Raw contact scores were calculated for all regulars going back to 1901. Since we don’t have access to granular batted-ball data going that far backward, we’re not going to be able to adjust for context. That context includes the effects of ballparks, individual player’s speed, and of course, luck. In a given year, that those factors might affect an individual player significantly. Over the long haul, however, raw ball-striking ability, or lack thereof, as well as contact quality, the respective frequency of line drives and popups, of weak and hard contact in general, tends to carry the day.

Read the rest of this entry »

A couple weeks ago, we took a look at the most and least authoritative hitters of all time, utilizing raw contact scores, or production relative to the league on all plate appearances not resulting in a strikeout or walk. One of the reader comments suggested to take a look at the most productive low-authority hitters, and the least productive high-authority hitters. Today, we’ll look at the former, and later this week, the latter.

First of all, a review of the methodology, and some parameters. We calculate raw contact scores by stripping away the strikeouts (Ks) and walks (BBs), and applying run values to all balls in play based on the norms for that era. The results are then scaled to 100. Raw contact scores were calculated for all regulars going back to 1901. Since we don’t have access to granular batted-ball data going that far backward, we’re not going to be able to adjust for context. That context includes the effects of ballparks, individual player’s speed, and of course, luck. In a given year, that those factors might affect an individual player significantly. Over the long haul, however, raw ball-striking ability, or lack thereof, as well as contact quality, the respective frequency of line drives and popups, of weak and hard contact in general, makes the difference.

Read the rest of this entry »

Many of my recent articles in this space have centered upon assessment of batted ball quality for hitters. In this day of StatCast and Hit f(x), discussion of such information has intensified in the public realm, and with it has come much misunderstanding. There is a whole lot more to batted ball quality than authority itself. The Mariners hit the ball much harder than the Cardinals, but aren’t nearly their equal as an offensive ballclub, for instance. Today, let’s examine the relationship between hitters’ contact score and their OPS+, based on their K and BB rates relative to the league. Read the rest of this entry »

In this age of Hitf/x and StatCast, batted-ball velocity is a hotter topic than ever. We only have had access to such data for a limited period of time, but the hypothesizing regarding the loudest contact-makers in the game’s history has been going on as long as the game itself. A similar debate regarding the quietest contact-makers has been, shall we say, a bit more quiet. Earlier this week we used contact scores to run down the most authoritative hitters of the modern era. Today, let’s flip the script and look at the bottom of the contact authority list.

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In this age of Hitf/x and StatCast, batted ball velocity is a hotter topic than ever. We only have had access to such data for a limited period of time, but the hypothesizing regarding the loudest contact-makers in the game’s history has been going on as long as the game itself. While we can’t go back and retroactively calculate batted ball velocity, we can go back and calculate contact scores, and make very educated guesses to this eternal question. Read the rest of this entry »

In May 2014, I wrote an article within these very pages with basically the same exact title. The calendar has turned to 2015, and the American League is even wilder, woollier, and every bit as mediocre. Recent traditional powers like the the Yankees and Red Sox — and even the Rangers, A’s, and Angels — aren’t what they used to be, and the anticipated next wave, represented by the Mariners and Indians, has been slow to deliver. What we are left with is a morass of clubs, with few clear positive standouts, and few relatively hopeless also-rans. How to make sense of this?

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In recent articles, we’ve discussed many of the various aspects of the emerging granular batted-ball velocity/exit angle data that is becoming more pervasive in the game today. We’ve already covered both the overall hitting and pitching contact-quality leaders and laggards in both leagues, and have now begun to dig deeper into some of the nuances that make it less than advisable to simply accept raw contact authority at face value. Let’s investigate the impact of pulling the ball on the ground at an excessive rate. Last time, we looked at the 2014 AL extreme ground-ball pullers. Today, it’s the NL’s turn.

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In the last couple of weeks, we’ve discussed many of the various aspects of the emerging granular batted-ball velocity/exit angle data that is becoming more pervasive in the game today. We’ve already covered both the overall hitting and pitching contact-quality leaders and laggards in both leagues, and are now ready to dig deeper into some of the nuances that make it less than advisable to simply accept raw contact-authority at face value. Let’s investigate the impact of pulling the ball on the ground at an excessive rate; today’s we’ll look at the 2014 AL extreme ground ball pullers, and next week, we’ll check out the NL.

Read the rest of this entry »