Trading-Deadline Minor-League Talent Arsenals – AL

The trading deadline is nearly upon us, and if history is a guide, there could be a dizzying amount of player movement in the coming days. This season appears to be unique in a couple of ways. There seems to be a somewhat historic mismatching of pure buyers and sellers, in large part due to the insanity of the American League wild-card race, with no team further than eight games under .500 or out of the wild-card lead. Purely by definition, is there a sure seller in the bunch?

This week, we’ll preview the deadline in a somewhat unique manner. Instead of focusing solely on club’s holes and potential targets, we’ll hone in on them from their respective talent arsenals to be drawn upon to make deadline deals. Which clubs are best — and worst — positioned to land the most attractive prizes on the market?

In a sense, the traditional notions of the deadline “buyer” and “seller” are a bit antiquated. The most nimble, forward-thinking organizations are prepared to buy and sell simultaneously, depending upon where the excess value presents itself. Job No. 1 for each club is to properly value its assets. Certain clubs may over- or undershoot the target based on flawed assumptions, over reliance on recent events, etc., and the best front offices will quickly walk away or pounce on those misjudgments. We’ll do our best to place each team into a relative buy/sell category, knowing full well that their situations are fluid, and could change within a week or less.

How compact are the AL standings right now? Below are the standings before Wednesday’s games. The third column lists each team’s games behind the current wild cards, while the fourth lists cumulative games behind. On one hand, you might look at the A’s and Mariners and say, they’re only eight games out of this. On the other, they have a whole lot of teams to jump over, and the cumulative total gives you a better idea of their plight. Though those numbers appear large at first glance, a well-timed eight-game winning streak can make a whole lot of those cumulative games behind go away.

The last two columns list each club’s run differential entering Monday’s games, and their projected (by Fangraphs) final win total. You think things are crazy right now? Imagine if the Fangraphs projections are dead on; that suggests that not a single AL team would be eliminated entering the final week of the season, and that as many as eight clubs would be alive entering the final weekend. History suggests that a club or two will ultimately pull away, but that such a muddled scenario exists this close to the trading deadline is quite amazing.

	W	L	GB	CUM GB	+/- RUN	PROJ W
KC	56	36	—	—	+66	90
LAA	53	40	—	—	+58	89
NYY	51	41	—	—	+28	88
HOU	52	43	2.0	—	+65	86
TOR	48	47	4.5	3.0	+95	83
TB	48	48	5.0	3.5	-17	80
BAL	46	46	5.0	3.5	+43	81
MIN	50	43	6.5	—	+7	82
TEX	44	49	9.0	6.0	-27	77
DET	46	47	10.0	4.0	-21	81
BOS	42	52	10.0	8.5	-66	78
SEA	43	51	10.5	7.5	-48	79
OAK	43	52	11.0	8.0	+47	77
CLE	44	48	12.0	5.5	-24	81
CWS	42	49	13.5	7.0	-80	77

So that’s the convoluted lay of the land prior to the upcoming transfer of talent at the deadline. Below, let’s look at each club’s arsenal of minor-league trading chips. We’ll do so by looking at the number of position players and starting pitchers who qualified for my midseason minor-league top-prospect lists.

If you aren’t familiar with my minor-league lists, here is a brief refresher. They aren’t pure top-prospect lists; they basically serve as follow lists, after which traditional scouting methods are used to tweak the order. Qualification for my lists are based upon a combination of performance and age relative to league/level. The younger a prospect is at each level, the less production is required to get him onto the list. At level-specific “optimal ages” (22 at AAA, 21 at AA, 20 at High-A, 19 at Low-A), a player qualifies regardless of performance. At level-specific, much older ages (26 at AAA, 25 at AA, 24 at High-A, 23 at Low-A), you can’t qualify for the list no matter how loud your performance. Only full-season league prospects are considered.

Does my method miss some prospects? A few. Defense-first guys at offense-scarce positions and pitch-to-contact types with high grounder rates sometimes slip through the cracks. I’m ready for those guys, and can easily go find them to add to my list in the adjustment phase. Still, the vast majority of productive major leaguers qualified for my lists at one point in time in their respective minor-league careers. This includes successful major-league relievers, most of whom started at some point in the minors. Of the many, many relievers in last week’s All Star Game, only Mark Melancon and Darren O’Day never started as prospects. Every one of the others did, and qualified for my list. Exactly 303 position players and 144 starting pitchers made the cut this time around.

The first two columns in the table below list each club’s overall total and number of top-100 position players on my midseason list. The next two list each club’s overall total and number of top-50 starting pitchers on my midseason list. The last two columns add the two together to yield each club’s overall prospect total, and their number of higher-end prospects.

	HIT	HIT T100	PIT	PIT T50	TOT	TOT 100/50
BAL	5	3	5	2	10	5
BOS	12	3	7	3	19	6
CLE	14	4	4	2	18	6
CWS	7	2	5	2	12	4
DET	9	1			9	1
HOU	19	9	6	2	25	11
KC	11	3	10	2	21	5
LAA	2	1	4		6	1
MIN	11	5	6	2	17	7
NYY	17	4	7	3	24	7
OAK	11	2			11	2
SEA	6	1	3	2	9	3
TB	14	5	6	3	20	8
TEX	18	7	10	4	28	11
TOR	9	2	4	2	13	4

Incorporating the information on the above table, let’s take a brief look at each club’s status leading up to the trading deadline, attempting to identify any untouchable minor leaguers, as well as the best prospects who potentially might be moved. A player we might want to keep in mind during this exercise would be Rays’ teenage infield prospect Willy Adames. Only the most minors-focused among you might have heard of him entering last year’s deadline season. He ranked near the very top of my midseason list last summer as a Tiger prospect, and was then dealt away as part of the three-way transaction that sent David Price to Detroit and Austin Jackson to Seattle. He ranked 13th on my list this summer, and he’s now well known enough to make multiple industry-wide top-prospect lists.

– BALTIMORE ORIOLES – The Orioles would have to be classified as aggressive buyers this summer. Unfortunately for them, their system is fairly top-heavy, and their best prospects, pitchers Dylan Bundy and Hunter Harvey, are likely both untouchable (because of their talent) and untradeable (because of their injury histories). Only 10 Oriole prospects qualified for my lists, more than only three other AL clubs, though half of them were T100/T50 prospects. They are going to have to make some hard calls on their other high-end prospects if they are to successfully compete for some of the better outfield bats on the market. Last season, they moved Eduardo Rodriguez in a similar spot, and might regret it for a long time. C Chance Sisco, 1B Trey Mancini and especially RHP Zach Davies will all be highly sought after, and might not be untouchable when all is said and done.

– BOSTON RED SOX – The Red Sox would love to be aggressive buyers, but their run-less weekend in Anaheim potentially put a damper on their enthusiasm. They don’t have to make a decision right now, however, as teams will be coming to them because of their minor league depth. 19 of their players, equitably split between position players and pitchers, qualified for my lists, and six of them were T100/T50 prospects. Their untouchables include Rafael Devers among position players and the recently promoted Rodriguez among pitchers. The next tier is still pretty sweet, including CF Manuel Margot and LHP Henry Owens, who could become available for a big fish if the Sox make a move in the next week or so. Ps Michael Kopech (just suspended for PEDs) and Daniel McGrath and Low-A SS Javier Guerra are other names to watch.

– CLEVELAND INDIANS – Given the potentially dominant nature of their starting rotation and their reasonable proximity to the wild-card leaders, the Indians still should be considered aggressive buyers at this time. The Indians’ system, as usual, has enviable prospect depth: 18 of their players qualified for my two lists. Their high-end prospect depth (6 T100/T50 guys) is better than usual, though their incumbent major-league shortstop, Francisco Lindor, is included in those ranks. Lindor, A-ball outfielder Bradley Zimmer and LHP Justus Sheffield are likely untouchable, but their position-player depth might allow them to consider moving OFs such as Clint Frazier or Tyler Naquin in the right deal. A team with an analytical bent might want to take RHP Adam Plutko off of their hands.

– CHICAGO WHITE SOX – The Chisox might be the club least likely to ultimately be a deadline buyer. Though they are certainly within striking distance, and have the starting pitching to remain there, the club is quite realistic about what they are at this point, and should wind up as either a neutral or selling club. Though their once-moribund system is on the way back, their 12 overall and 4 T100/T50 prospects both are below the league average, and they could stand to add to both numbers. Pitchers Jordan Guerrero or Tyler Danish aren’t going anywhere, nor is 3B Trey Michalczewski or OF Courtney Hawkins. They are also likely to keep their current and recent starting 2Bs, Carlos Sanchez and Micah Johnson, in the fold. If they run off five or six in a row, get back to me.

– DETROIT TIGERS – This one should be fun to watch. As things stand, the Tigers certainly consider themselves a strong buyer. Their ongoing four-game set with the Mariners is an elimination series of sorts, potentially for both clubs if they split. The trouble is, based on my lists, the Tigers have the second-worst minor-league system in the AL, and absolutely zero of their pitchers qualified. They only possess one T100/T50 prospect, Australian 3B Zach Shepherd, who needs to develop power to certify his status. Ultimately, they might be best served to take a deep breath and join the selling side. It’s also difficult to determine exactly whom would be their bait if they decided to buy; one could make the argument that there isn’t a surefire future MLB regular or rotation member on their full-season rosters at present.

– HOUSTON ASTROS – This is where the action is. Even after the promotion of Carlos Correa, Jon Singleton and Vincent Velasquez to the major-league roster, the Astros still possess more bullets with which to chase their deadline targets than virtually any other AL club. 25 Astro farmhands made my list, second to the Rangers, and their 11 T100/T50 guys tied Texas for the top spot. Their position-player depth is unmatched; some combination of OFs Domingo Santana, Brett Phillips and Derek Fisher, 1Bs Singleton and A.J. Reed, and 2B Tony Kemp could be the centerpiece of a major deal for much-needed starting pitching. They’re likely more inclined to hold onto their arms, the best of whom might be Double-A LHP Josh Hader.

– KANSAS CITY ROYALS – The Royals are sitting pretty right now as the only near-lock AL playoff club, but should still at least be considered soft buyers due to their rotation issues. They have strong prospect depth (21 overall qualifiers) to deal from, though their high-end depth (5 T100/T50 players) is near average. SS Raul Mondesi is only 19 and already at Double-A, and is likely their most untouchable player. The youth and impeccable health and durability of their major-league regulars might enable the Royals to deal from position-player depth, making C Zane Evans, 3B Cheslor Cuthbert, RF Jorge Bonifacio and even High-A RF Elier Hernandez potentially available.

– LOS ANGELES ANGELS – Yes, they have Mike Trout, but the Angels also possess the leanest farm system in the AL. Only six overall qualifiers and a single T100 position player. The lack of depth is particularly acute on the position-player side; on the pitching side, you’d have to believe that recently promoted LHP Andrew Heaney is untouchable, leaving Triple-A RHP Nick Tropeano as major-league insurance and their 2014 1st-round pick, LHP Sean Newcomb, as their most attractive minor-league trade target by a wide margin. They’re buyers, with limited resources.

– MINNESOTA TWINS – While it can still be argued that the Twins are playing over their heads by a considerable margin, they have a whole lot of wins in the bank and now must be considered at least a slight favorite to hang onto a wild-card spot. This also makes them a buyer, at least a soft one. Most of their summer help has come from within, from untouchables like Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano. Their system depth is about average, but their high-end group, with 7 T100/T50 prospects, is better than that. RHP Jose Berrios, CF Max Kepler and SS Jorge Polanco might also be off limits to other clubs, leaving Double-A slugger Adam Brett Walker and RHPs Tyler Duffey and Stephen Gonsalves as players who could potentially be moved in a significant deal.

– NEW YORK YANKEES – Interesting times for the Bronx Bombers. One might automatically be inclined to classify them as strong buyers, but they might not need to buy to reach the postseason. Their farm system is resurgent: 24 players made my lists, including 7 T100/T50 prospects. It’s more quantity than high-end quality, but RHP Luis Severino and upper minor-league OFs Aaron Judge and Mason Williams are worthy likely untouchables. There are plenty of assets beyond them, with RHP Rookie Davis, 3B Eric Jagielo, 1B Greg Bird and CF Jake Cave leading the group of potentially available prospects.

– OAKLAND A’S – Nine games under .500. A plus-47 run differential. It all makes sense. The A’s will wait a while to become outright sellers, and are obviously one of the clubs capable and willing to buy and sell simultaneously. Their system could use some fortification; zero starting pitchers qualified for my list, and their overall prospect depth (11 qualifying players) and quality (2 T100/T50 guys) are both below par. SS Franklin Barreto and 1B Matt Olson are likely off limits to other clubs in any circumstance, with a toolsy prospect like Double-A 3B Renato Nunez possibly available should the A’s go on a run in the next week or so.

– SEATTLE MARINERS – No team likely wants to be an aggressive buyer more than the Seattle Mariners. However, the combination of the reality of the standings and the likely unwillingness of ownership to further relax their purse strings doesn’t add up to buyer status. They pushed more chips to the center of the table last month to acquire Mark Trumbo, doubling down on their existing weaknesses while both moving a major-league catcher they could use right about now (Welington Castillo) and digging deeper into their once impressive prospect stash. My lists suggest that they have the third-weakest minor-league system in the AL. The closest to untouchable players in their system are SS Ketel Marte and RHP Edwin Diaz. Barring a hot streak in the next week or so, any move involving them should be viewed as a sign of desperation.

– TAMPA BAY RAYS – It certainly has been a nice reloading job by the Rays since last fall; 2015 postseason berth or not, this organization is well positioned. They possess an above-average minor-league system in terms of quantity (20 qualifiers) and quality (8 T100/T50 players). I consider them soft buyers, who likely will place more importance on the longer term rather than 2015 alone. Their most untouchable prospects are the aforementioned Adames, SS Daniel Robertson and 1B Jake Bauers — all obtained in deals last offseason — as well as homegrown pitchers Taylor Guerrieri and Blake Snell. Don’t expect the Rays to change their spots and deal young talent for veteran dollars at the deadline unless the risk/reward ratio significantly lists in their favor.

– TEXAS RANGERS – This might be the club with the greatest range of deadline possibilities. They’re toward the bottom of the pack in the standings, suggesting they might sell, but likely have the deepest reservoir of talent should they decide to buy. 28 players overall qualified for my lists, 11 in the T100/T50 range. Obviously, Rougned Odor and Joey Gallo, to name two, aren’t going anywhere, and neither is pitcher Jake Thompson. Very impressive offers for big fish can be made with the likes of OFs Nomar Mazara, Lewis Brinson and Nick Williams, C Jorge Alfaro, SS Hanser Alberto, and others. Barring a streak in the next week or so, expect the Rangers to hold their cards, and perhaps add to them by becoming a borderline seller.

– TORONTO BLUE JAYS – The Jays are likely to be aggressive buyers, for a confluence of reasons. They have a +95 run differential, indicating that they likely are a true-talent playoff club, possess clear, defined run-prevention based needs, and extra urgency to win now is likely present due to impending turnover in President Paul Beeston’s seat. That said, they aren’t dealing from a particularly strong minor-league deck, in terms of both quantity (13 qualifiers) and quality (4 T100/T50 prospects). The Jays are unlikely to deal pitchers Daniel Norris and 2014 2nd rounder Sean Reid-Foley, or OFs Dalton Pompey or Anthony Alford. Power is always in great demand on the market, making High-A 1B Rowdy Tellez a high priority for clubs dealing with the Jays.

Later this week, we’ll take a look at the NL clubs in a similar manner.