Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 7/22/15 by Dave Cameron July 22, 2015 11:41 Dave Cameron: It’s 10 days until the trade deadline, so this seems like a good chat to focus on the deals, rumors, and speculations of the day. Or if you wanted to ask about the Trade Value series from last week, we can do that too. 11:41 Dave Cameron: The queue is now open. 12:01 Comment From marcDoes alex guerro to the pirates make sense? 12:03 Dave Cameron: No, because he’s not very good and his contract makes him mostly untradable. 12:03 Dave Cameron: They’re probably the team that makes the most sense for Ben Zobrist, though. 12:04 Comment From Bobby AyalaWhat do you think the Mariners’ record would be without Rodney on the roster? 12:04 Dave Cameron: Mostly the same. 12:04 Comment From The Average Sports FanElvis Andrus and Starlin Castro have both become disasters. Which is a bigger surprise? 12:04 Dave Cameron: Andrus. He was actually good, while Castro was mostly hype and projection. 12:04 Comment From GuestHow close was Kolten Wong to making your trade value list? 12:04 Dave Cameron: He was in the 50-75 group. 12:04 Comment From GuestShould the Cardinals trade an outfielder? If so, it would probably be Bourjos, right? 12:05 Dave Cameron: I don’t know why they’d make their MLB team worse at this point. They should keep their good MLB players, Bourjos included. 12:05 Comment From AmirDo you think the Yankees will look to upgrade their rotation with CC struggling? 12:06 Dave Cameron: I bet they do something smaller, a buy-low on a guy like Latos or Iwakuma instead of going after one of the big names. 12:06 Comment From GuestWhat is your opinion on Stephen Piscotty? 12:07 Dave Cameron: I don’t get why he’s considered a good prospect, honestly. Good contact skills, below average power, limited defensive value, not a great baserunner. He looks like a bench player to me. 12:07 Comment From marcdo the pirates, with all of their injuries make a move for an impact bat? 12:08 Dave Cameron: There aren’t any of those available. I think Napoli, Zobrist, and a reliever would be a very good deadline for them. 12:08 Comment From ErlichSeems like Iwakuma could be a sneaky-good pickup for the Astros. Could Singleton be the kind of one-dimensional player that would excite Jack Z? 12:09 Dave Cameron: Unlikely. But I agree that if the Mariners do decide to move Iwakuma, he’s a guy the smart teams will be targeting. 12:09 Comment From Johnny5AliveNow it looks like the mets may really consider bringing up conforto. I think youve said hes not the answer for right now in previous chats, he has to be one of the top 3 outfielders in the whole org (majors included) right now, right? especially given the mets apparent reluctance to spend money or prospects to upgrade the team. does it make any more sense now? 12:09 Dave Cameron: I remain unconvinced that he’s anything more than a replacement level outfielder in the big leagues right now. 12:09 Dave Cameron: Gerardo Parra makes a ton of sense for them. 12:09 Comment From MoopWhat are the Ms supposed to do with Zunino? 12:10 Dave Cameron: Admit they made a mistake in rushing him, let him go back to the minors and start his development path over. 12:10 Comment From STSBest guess, who will be next in closing games that is not a closer now? 12:10 Dave Cameron: Wade Davis, when the Royals trade Holland this winter. 12:11 Comment From The Famous Singer, Rob StewartSo that Kyle Schwarber guy…Cubs are gonna have to keep him up, aren’t they? 12:11 Dave Cameron: Yeah, he’ll stick around the rest of the year. That said, the very low contact rate is a bit concerning for a guy who is supposed to be a hit-before-power type, and that stabilizes pretty quickly. If he’s really going to strike out 25% of the time, he’s going to have to hit for a lot of power to live up to the hype. 12:12 Comment From marcWho (teams/players) will get the trade deadline started? 12:12 Dave Cameron: I’d bet the Dodgers and Royals both trade for starters soon, given their needs and the injuries they suffered last night. 12:12 Comment From domNo knock against Bill Simmons, but his trade value series seemed to be more subjective than yours, saying things like “Shaq has to be number one because if he was ever traded he would make it his personal mission to come back and haunt you”. Do you think this reflects a difference in the two sports or you guys as writers? 12:13 Dave Cameron: He’s an entertainer, and i’m more of an analyst. His sense of humor appeals to millions; mine to dozens. I don’t think we were really trying to do the same thing, despite the fact that the pieces shared a name. 12:13 Comment From Dave DombrowskiFrom one Dave to another, in reference to yet another – what is your estimate of a realistic return I could expect from the Dodgers for David Price? 12:14 Dave Cameron: Jose de Leon and a throw-in. 12:14 Comment From STLJeffDo you see the Cards making any sort of impact move for a bat or starter at the deadline? 12:15 Dave Cameron: I doubt it. I could see them adding some addition RP depth and maybe looking for a better first baseman, but that’s about it. 12:15 Comment From ColbyTigers send Price and Cespedes to Dodgers for Puig, De leon, and Lee. Possible? 12:15 Dave Cameron: The Tigers duo aren’t worth anything close to that. 12:16 Comment From MJNorris, Hoffman, Alford for Cueto, Chapman. Who says no, Jays or Reds? On a more general note, do you think the Jays should go “all in” and focus on this year and next year as their main windows to compete? 12:17 Dave Cameron: I bet the Jays would turn that down, though if the Reds added Bruce, they might consider it. 12:17 Dave Cameron: I wouldn’t necessarily go all-in on 2015, given that the Wild Card game is still a crapshoot, but I’d definitely try to make a run this year, within reason. 12:18 Comment From QbertCould the Mariners trade Nelson Cruz without eating any of his contract? 12:18 Dave Cameron: Yes, but they won’t. 12:19 Dave Cameron: (sorry for slower than usual responses: Cover It Live is sucking today.) 12:20 Comment From ColbyDo you think the Tigers could expect a return on Soria like what they gave up for him or has Sorias value tanked due to performance and being a rental? 12:20 Dave Cameron: You don’t give up the same for half a year of a guy as you do for a year and a half of the same guy performing even worse. 12:21 Comment From ChrisIs Puig really a candidate to be traded? Where might he land? 12:22 Dave Cameron: I wouldn’t be stunned if the Dodgers traded him, but there’s no obvious fit. If the White Sox made Sale available, or there was another good young starter under control for multiple years, I’d think it would be more likely, but there isn’t really. 12:22 Comment From MattThis season started so horribly for the Brewers, but now they have won 17 games out of 23. Clearly theyaren’t making the playoffs this season. But should they still go full fire sale? 12:22 Dave Cameron: Yes, it’s time to blow things up and start over. 12:23 Comment From Johnny5Aliveso last year they said that if more people came to the games, theyd spend. this year, attendance is up almost 9% (and I would imagine that revenues would also be up), the payroll is lower, they are collecting insurance money on Wright, and yet the mets are still balking at taking on $3 mil in salary on zobrist? this is an embarassment 12:24 Dave Cameron: There’s zero reason to believe that won’t-take-Zobrist’s-money rumor. It’s exactly the kind of thing that gets a lot of headlines so is easy for someone to run with, but it didn’t come from any of the people who generally get information like this, and it contradicts every other credible source out there. 12:25 Comment From JamesDo you think the Puig + parts for Hamels rumor has any merit? 12:25 Dave Cameron: Puig > Hamels. So, uh, no. 12:26 Comment From nikIf both were traded as a pair, which would net a larger return – Hamels + Papelbon or Cueto + Chapman? 12:26 Dave Cameron: Cueto and Chapman, by a lot. 12:26 Comment From Josh IWhat would the Mets have to give up for Zobrist? 12:27 Dave Cameron: I think he’ll cost something close to what the A’s gave up to get him. Maybe 10-15% less, but in the same range. 12:27 Comment From ChrisYou noted the Tigers shouldn’t sell because of their expected playoff odds this year. But looking to the future, how much should we weight a potential boost to playoff odds in the coming years from the prospects/players that the Tigers could receive for trading Price/Cespedes? 12:28 Dave Cameron: I don’t think acquiring prospects will move the needle for their future playoff odds much. This is a team that is going to be bad soon, maybe as soon as next year, and all trading the present for future will do is make a bad team a little less bad. 12:29 Dave Cameron: I just don’t buy Dombrowski’s “we have a good young core” argument. J.D. Martinez is good. Iglesias is fine. McCann is okay, maybe. And that’s about it. Castellanos stinks, and everyone else who is any good is declining. 12:29 Comment From AnthonyWhat’s a fair price for Zobrist? (If you can answer specifically for the Pirates that would be wonderful, but I’d also be happy with a general answer). 12:31 Dave Cameron: The A’s are going to want 2016 guys, not long-term projects. In Pitt, that’s probably Josh Bell and something. 12:31 Comment From GaryThink Kazmir winds up in the NL? 12:31 Dave Cameron: I think most people are betting on Houston. 12:32 Comment From Sleight of Hand Proshould the Astros be looking at rentals like Cueto? or is it smarter to search for guys that will help for multiple years, like Hamels? since their window is just now opening? 12:32 Dave Cameron: I think they’re probably better off going for two pitchers like Samardzija and Kazmir, or Iwakuma and Ross, or something along those lines. 12:32 Dave Cameron: I don’t know that paying the ace-tax to get get a guy who might not be that much better than Keuchel to pitch in a Wild Card game is a good idea. 12:33 Comment From Reginald Denton IIIDoes Craig Kimbrel get moved? Why haven’t we heard more about a potential move there? 12:33 Dave Cameron: I don’t think anyone really believes the Padres are going to blow it up entirely. 12:33 Comment From SnarfleDo you see the Mets doing anything beyond finding a cheapish 2nd tier outfielder? Would you go bigger? 12:34 Dave Cameron: No, I think a Parra type and maybe a depth infielder is probably the right call. 12:34 Comment From Julio PepperWhat does Greinke get? 5/150? Less? 12:35 Dave Cameron: Depends on if he stays with LA or not. I bet if he stays with the Dodgers, it’s something like that, maybe 5/140. If he goes elsewhere, I bet he gets 6 or 7 years, probably at 25 a year. 12:35 Comment From BlergLongoria has precipitously fallen from your Top 50 Trade Values. Roughly where would he fall now? Top 100? You do still consider him a trade asset and not a liability, right? 12:35 Dave Cameron: For sure. He’d have been on the list if I did a top 75. 12:35 Comment From MIchaelWhat big name pitcher do you think gets moved first? And bat? 12:36 Dave Cameron: I’d guess Samardzija goes first. 12:36 Comment From mapsamountainrangeHow long until we see the first big trade – and what teams do you think are involved? 12:36 Dave Cameron: I’ll guess the Blue Jays pick up Samardzija in the next 3 days. Total guess, but there you go. 12:37 Comment From JLWhat do you think about the Jays putting Sanchez in the bullpen? 12:37 Dave Cameron: It’s where he belongs. 12:37 Comment From JoeWhat about Uribe to the Pirates? I’d love zobrist but I can’t see Huntington being willing to give up what it would take for Zorilla 12:37 Dave Cameron: Rumor has it that the Braves are putting very high prices on their rentals. 12:37 Dave Cameron: But Uribe would fit in Pittsburgh pretty well. 12:38 Comment From MattWhat do you see the Royals doing? Seems like Zobrist would be perfect — platoon with Rios in RF and spell (or replace) Infante at 2nd. 12:38 Dave Cameron: Cueto/Bruce combo works better. 12:38 Comment From JaackWhich of the trade value placements will probably look the dumbest this time next year? 12:38 Dave Cameron: Whichever pitcher blows out their arm. 12:38 Comment From mmarsdenWhat will it cost a team to get Chapman? Do you believe he gets moved? 12:39 Dave Cameron: A lot, and yes. I wouldn’t be shocked if the return for Chapman was more than for most of the starters. 12:39 Comment From Andy in W-SWill Andrelton Simmons ever learn to hit? 12:40 Dave Cameron: Maybe. There’s great contact skills and some power there, so he just needs to get his BABIP up 20-30 points. It could happen. 12:40 Comment From MSWSchwarber or Sano long term? 12:40 Dave Cameron: Sano. 12:40 Comment From NickNapoli is just a straight salary dump for Boston, right? 12:40 Dave Cameron: They’ll eat the cash to get a prospect back instead. 12:41 Comment From MattIn the near term, does it make sense for the Cubs to move Russell to SS or is that an offseason change? Castro value appears to completely eroded, no? 12:41 Dave Cameron: Yeah, Castro’s playing himself out of any trade value. At this point, he’s getting close to a salary dump/change-of-scenery guy. 12:42 Comment From AlexGiven that some of the league’s best hitters have low contact rates, why is it always such a big concern with up-and-coming prospects? Hasn’t Schwarber proven that his hit/power tools make up for it? 12:42 Dave Cameron: In 41 at-bats? No, he most certainly has not. 12:42 Comment From DougWill RAJ get what he wants for Hamels? Rosenthal thinks not. 12:43 Dave Cameron: I think he’ll get a solid return, and if the Rangers decide they should be buying for whatever reason, he has a chance of landing a package that won’t look too bad. But they’re the only team who might do something dumb and overpay, probably. Everyone else involved realizes the contract isn’t that great. 12:44 Comment From Dave DombrowskiYou think a rental David Price is worth less than a rental Andrew Miller was last year? Guess that’s why I’m the “Dave” in the GM’s office 12:45 Dave Cameron: Eduardo Rodriguez’s value was down at the time of the trade last year; velo was down early in the year, wasn’t pitching that well. What he did after the trade isn’t reflective of the return. 12:45 Comment From Keeper? I hardly know herIs Parra really good? I feel like he’s always been a replacement outfielder but since June he’s hitting .348 with a 164 WRC+. Obviously that’s not completely sustainable, but what do you see of him ROS and long-term? 12:45 Dave Cameron: You feel like a guy with +11 WAR in 3,300 PAs has always been a replacement OF? 12:46 Dave Cameron: He’s a solid average to above average big leaguer. 12:46 Comment From TomAs a Cards fan, I am happy you don’t think much of Piscotty, seeing as how you were wrong on Carlos Martinez and Matt Carpenter 😉 12:46 Dave Cameron: I was actually a huge Matt Carpenter fan, and one of his loudest proponents coming up, but nice try. 12:48 Comment From JamesWho do you see as the biggest name in current rumors who doesn’t get moved? 12:48 Dave Cameron: Price. I don’t see the Tigers selling. 12:49 Comment From domPuig for Harvey was bandied about. I don’t think it makes the Mets better though. 12:49 Dave Cameron: Yeah, that’s a lateral move for the Mets, probably. It’s risky upside for risky upside. 12:50 Comment From MikeDave, Mark Buehrle should obviously be offered a contract for next year if he wants to pitch….what do you think it might look like? 12:50 Dave Cameron: I’d make him a Qualifying Offer, or give him something like 3/36 if he preferred multiple years. 12:51 Comment From arif you’re the phillies, would you pay hamels’ entire contract, and basically buy prospects? 12:51 Dave Cameron: Yep, but ownership groups generally don’t want to do that. 12:51 Comment From hsceras a pair, more for Sale-Abreu or Cueto-Chapman 12:51 Dave Cameron: Sale/Abreu by a country mile. Sale would get more than Cueto/Chapman by himself. 12:52 Comment From JohnnyIf you were the Rockies would you trade Arenado for 6 years of Carlos Rodon? 12:52 Dave Cameron: No way. 12:52 Comment From piscottyhave you seen the triple-a slash lines for piscotty? what else does he need to do there? 12:52 Dave Cameron: I’m not saying he belongs in AAA anymore, but he also ran a .118 ISO in AAA a year ago, in more at-bats. Just looking at 2015 doesn’t tell the whole story. 12:53 Comment From GuestIs it a foregone conclusion that Latos is moved? Reports now that he has worn out his welcome in Miami. Do that affect his trade value or overblown? 12:54 Dave Cameron: Those reports won’t affect anything, but the fact that he leaves a trail of teammates who hate him behind every time he moves will. 12:54 Comment From JohnnyWould you trade Puig for Quintana? 12:54 Dave Cameron: No, probably not. 12:56 Comment From RickHamels WAR is 2x Cueto’s. Papelbon’s is significantly higher than Chapman’s. If the Phillies are willing to add cash to the deal (for Paps salary) why wouldn’t they get significantly higher return? 12:56 Dave Cameron: 2.3 * 2 != 2.7. 12:57 Comment From JohnnyWhy was Noah Syndergaard left off top 50 list? You can argue he is a top 15 pitcher already AND he is under control for 6+ years. 12:57 Dave Cameron: Good thing he wasn’t left off then. 12:57 Comment From CuriousCatWho do you see as the biggest name NOT in current rumors who DOES get moved? 12:57 Dave Cameron: I could see the A’s selling high on Josh Reddick. 12:57 Comment From domDoes the fact that Pujols is on record saying how he’s financially set and if it gets really ugly he’ll retire increase his trade value at all? 12:58 Dave Cameron: Remember when Dan Haren was going to retire if the Dodgers traded him? When push comes to shove, guys generally don’t walk away from guaranteed money. 12:59 Comment From Johnny5AliveMatt Carpenter MILB – 1197 ABs, 75 doubles, 28 homers, 299/408/48; Piscotty – 1457, 101 doubles, 39 homers, 288/360/444 slash and 18 less strikeouts in 350 more at bats. you loved carpenter and you hate piscotty? 1:01 Dave Cameron: Carpenter walked twice as often, hit for same or more power, and could play a good 3B (and as it turned out, an adequate 2B). 1:01 Comment From domWould you rather have Price or Greinke pitch a playoff game for you? 1:01 Dave Cameron: Price. 1:02 Comment From JakeDo you foresee any of the disappointing pre-season darlings (i.e. Boston, Cleveland, Seattle) making big moves in either direction? Do they just stand pat and hope they play their ways back into it? 1:03 Dave Cameron: I could see them all making minor sell-off moves, dumping guys like Uehara, Napoli, Iwakuma, and Swisher. Nothing major, most likely. 1:04 Dave Cameron: Okay, that’s it for me today. We’ll do it again next week, and Eno will be here for the weird chat tomorrow.