Last Monday, I called for your expectations for Reds top prospect Aroldis Chapman this season. The Cuban southpaw was pitching on the MLB Network, and I thought it would be a nice opportunity for some of us that hadn’t seen him throw to do a little tele-scouting. As luck would have it, I jinxed Chapman, whose velocity fell hard in his second inning of work — a product of a sore back he may have withheld from the team.

So, rather than report the results on another Chapman throw day, I’ve opted to save the lefty from my jinxes. He recovered quickly enough to work an inning from the bullpen on Sunday, reportedly touching 97 mph with his fastball. His slider, which looked well behind his change-up last week, was apparently back to its nasty former self.

However, this setback will probably be enough to move Chapman’s opening day assignment to the minor leagues. While I suspect this extra week of information might have altered your expectations a bit, we did keep the polls open through Sunday night. The turnout was very good, I thought: 504 entries that filled out the first four questions.

The fifth question, which I borrowed from Tango at the Book Blog, was a bit of a gaffe on my part. I didn’t explain the question well, and to top it off, didn’t give enough options in the poll. The results were enough to tell me the question should be tossed from the survey.

What we’re still left with, however, are your forecasts for his playing time and performance level this season. Here are the results in the four components of FIP:

InnPit    K/9    BB/9    HR/9
116.55   8.36    3.88    1.11

Interesting to note is that eight people had the nearest options in the poll (120, 8.5, 4, 1.1) as their answer, making it one of the most popular responses in our survey.

In converting those peripheral statistics into raw numbers, and then calculating FIP (using just an unadjusted +3.2), we get a Fan Projection of 4.36 FIP for Aroldis Chapman in 2010. This would obviously be fantastic for a rookie of Chapman’s pedigree in Cincinnati’s park, but I don’t think it’s out of the question.

We’ll certainly be checking in on Chapman’s progress throughout this season, as he promises to provide a great test for the wisdom of crowds approach to projection.

Contention often breeds desperation in Major League General Managers, and amidst a divisional race last July, Cardinals General Manager John Mozeliak may have been guilty of just that. Mozeliak tipped his hand near the trading deadline, trading away Brett Wallace, Clay Mortensen, Chris Perez, Jess Todd and Shane Peterson for Matt Holliday and Mark DeRosa, committing the Cardinals window of championship opportunity to as long as this current brand of veteran stars allots it. Bringing Holliday back into the fold for seven seasons was not a luxury but a necessity — with little left in the farm system, this is a team that will simply ebb and flow as Holliday and Albert Pujols do.

And number 28, who if you haven’t heard, “hits that triple, double, single, that smooth home run.”

As poor a state as the Cardinals minor league system currently stands — and it’s a shockingly shallow group of players — credit where it’s due: the St. Louis opening day lineup will have six homegrown starters. And while half of them feel like second-division starters (David Freese, Skip Schumaker, Brendan Ryan), the presence of Pujols and Colby Rasmus overshadows a lot of the organization’s other shortcomings. Assuming they can re-sign Pujols, and I truly believe it is going to happen, the Cardinals have three very talented hitters under control for the indefinite future. Not many teams can boast such a thing.

The rest of the team’s future seems a little more definite, as a lot of money looks to come off the books after 2012: Kyle Lohse, Yadier Molina, Ryan Ludwick, and some combination of Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright (depending on their respective options). This buys the scouting department some time to rebuild this farm system, as replacements aren’t needed for three years. It certainly lends for patience in regards to top prospect Shelby Miller’s development, and the raw first-round pick needs it. Miller has great potential, but his secondary stuff must come a long way.

While the process for procuring and developing stars promises to be a slow process, I do expect the Cardinals to continue to fill holes with cheap, low-ceiling, homegrown options. For example, Tony La Russa’s acceptance in opening positions for David Freese and Jaime Garcia as his third baseman and fifth starter, respectively. I do like Garcia, a guy that has legitimate sink to every pitch he throws. It’s very possible he’ll be the Cardinals third-best starter as early as this season. If Garcia does falter, it won’t be long before Lance Lynn is ready to replace him in the back of the rotation. Freese, I’m not so excited about. Neither his walk or strikeout rates inspire me enough to believe he’ll hit, and I know his defense won’t be a help. It’s hard not to wonder if dealing with Allen Craig’s brutal defense at third base, while retaining some offense from the position, isn’t the better option.

The bullpen is another place that will be ripe with homegrown players as long as Pujols and Holliday eat up forty percent of the payroll. Four of the seven relievers slated to open the season in St. Louis are products of Cardinals minor league affiliates. Each of them succeeds in different ways, from big velocity (Jason Motte) to a lot of movement (Mitch Boggs). But there is more on the way, like Eduardo Sanchez or Adam Reifer or, maybe even Adam Ottavino. The scouting team clearly knows that the production of relievers is important to what they do, as both their third (Joe Kelly) and fourth (Scott Bittle) round picks last season were college relievers.

With the development of superstars out of the way, at times it feels the scouting department becomes complacent and seeks out only high-floor players that will produce marginally above replacement level. This is not a great way to run a team; I much prefer swinging for the fences on guys like Rasmus and Shelby Miller. Not thinking about what will surround Albert, and instead thinking about what will complement him, is a much better way to ensure long-term success.

The Angels future is in question for the same reason that I have confidence in it. At first, we might wonder just what the team’s plan is after the 2012 season, given the sheer quantity of players slated for free agency: Mike Napoli, Ervin Santana, Jered Weaver, Joe Saunders, Maicer Izturis, Howie Kendrick, Erick Aybar. Those are just the homegrown players. Surely, the rich Angels will re-sign some of these guys, but I can’t imagine that all of them will stay in Anaheim. So, while the loss of any of these players will represent a hit to their post-2012 future, the fact that this Angels scouting department could produce so many big league talents at once gives me faith in their ability to have replacements ready.

However, given that praise of the team’s ability to scout, I also must re-hash my issue with the organization. As I’ve written previously, the Angels must do a better job of scouting the signability of their draftees. Nothing hurts a scouting department more than when a former draftee, like Matt Harvey or Zach Cone, blossoms after spurning a sizable offer. It’s now six players (in the first five rounds) in five years that the Angels have failed to sign, a trend that can’t continue should the organization hope to add any depth. They were better in 2009, signing their first six picks until third rounder Josh Spence inexplicably turned down six figures. Inexplicable as it might be on Spence’s end, clearly there was better value to be had with that pick.

Even without Spence, the 2009 draft has a chance to be a banner class. This is what happens when you have five of the first 48 picks in the draft. With back to back picks near the end of the first round, the Angels snagged a pair of high school outfielders in Randal Grichuk and Mike Trout. Both were spectacular in their debuts, Grichuk showing his huge raw power, and Trout with nice patience and speed skills. They won’t reach the Majors anytime soon, but they give the Angels some star potential in a system that needs it. The team then gambled on three pitchers: Tyler Skaggs (a projectable California southpaw), and enigmatic college talents Garrett Richards (Oklahoma) and Tyler Kehrer (Eastern Illinois). All were good in their debuts; I like Richards heavy movement the best of the three.

But where the system thins out is what exists in the middle, between that 2012 free agency group and the 2009 draft class. On the Major League side, you have cornermen Kendry Morales (post-2013 free agent) and Brandon Wood, who no longer profiles as an above-average third baseman for me. Maybe there’s still belief in Sean O’Sullivan or Trevor Bell, but it’s not coming from me. This is where the upsetting loss of Nick Adenhart strikes the hardest, as the right-hander should have been the ace of the next generation of Angels contenders. But as the organization’s inspired play last season proved, the show must go on.

In the minors, I see three real talents in that middle range, and then like every team has, some arms that serve as coinflips. My favorite talent is Peter Bourjos, written up by Erik Manning on this site not long ago. Bourjos might not be a leadoff hitter, but he can be league average, and that will be enough to contribute many WAR. In a perfect world, the Angels move Torii Hunter soon to make room. Won’t happen. Hank Conger will replace Napoli as catcher, but he’ll require the Angels to keep a plus-defensive catcher as back-up. I think his bat is overstated, but it certainly can be above-average for the toughest position on the defensive spectrum. The last talent is Trevor Reckling, a big lefty that prevents hitters from ever making good contact. His command is a mess, but I think he puts it together and becomes a viable big league starter.

I know the Angels can do it, because they have done it before. But this team will not succeed in the future on young talent alone, given the gap between guys like Jered Weaver and Garrett Richards. Some years hindered by a faulty process leaves a gap without a hint of depth. This scouting department will bring the talent back, but homegrown players will be few and far between for a couple seasons.

Because he was the first non-General Manager to win the Baseball America Executive of the Year award, and because he’s attained a cult hero status among saberists, it seems to me the ebbs and flows of the Milwaukee farm system over the next few years will be credited to the loss of Jack Zduriencik. It’s true, the guy is a fantastic scout, and his framework of going after power provides a direct line to draftees like Prince Fielder, Matt LaPorta, and Ryan Braun. But, even more than just losing Jack Z, we have to remember this team also lost his right-hand man in scouting, Tom McNamara, a former crosschecker in Bobby Heck, and the voice of sabermetric reason in Tony Blengino. It’s not the same group making decisions in the draft war room, but I think we would be foolish to suggest that esteemed GM Doug Melvin hasn’t replaced them with a new squad of successful scouts.

But they do have some work ahead of them. The Brewers have graduated so much talent, and because they haven’t had great luck in the middle rounds for a few years, there just isn’t a lot of depth in this farm system. The future middle infield is there, serviceable bats at third base and catcher, and then you’re left wondering which of their many raw arms drafted in 2008 and 2009 will work out. At least there’s Ryan Braun, ranked as the eighth-best commodity in baseball by Dave Cameron, who will be around Milwaukee through 2015. If the walks keep up and the defense comes around, Braun quickly vaults into annual Most Valuable Player talks. The other young Major League star is Yovani Gallardo, who is right on the cusp of brilliance, if only he can get that walk rate back to three per nine.

The team has just two more seasons with three other offensive success stories from the previous scouting era, Prince Fielder, Corey Hart and Rickie Weeks. J.J. Hardy, the fourth member of the posse, was shipped out this offseason to make way for top prospect Alcides Escobar. Weeks, I presume, won’t be re-signed with consensus #2 prospect Brett Lawrie knocking at the door. Both players are worth opening up a spot for, albeit for completely different reasons. Lawrie is the traditional offensive prospect, just a little physical maturation away from being a 25 home run guy, and a lot of hard work ahead to be an average defender. Escobar has always been that defender — the Brewers must think his glove is better than J.J. Hardy’s, even — and is just now showing some signs with the bat. The hope for Escobar, the perfect world projection, is the shortstop version of 2009 Franklin Gutierrez.

After that, it thins out quickly. I like Jon Lucroy a little bit, and it helps that his path to the Majors looks undeterred. With his pitch recognition, I have some good confidence he can be a .340-.350 wOBA guy, play two-thirds of the season behind the dish, and put up 2.5-3 WAR. That’s about the level I see Mat Gamel at, but with less confidence that he’ll be the best option available at any point in time. The team also must believe in Carlos Gomez and his defense in center field. He at least has to bridge the gap until Kentrail Davis is ready, but give the team credit for having a plan at every up the middle position. If you want a sleeper, I like Josh Prince, the shortstop from Tulane who is crazy patient and crazy fast, but he is a ways away without a clear path.

The plan for the pitchers is just as transparent, if a little more problematic: throw a lot of hard throwers into the pot, and see who comes out. This strategy dates back to Zduriencik’s first-round selections of Mark Rogers and Jeremy Jeffress, those mythical prep 99 mph guys, who might overcome their own adversities and become big league relievers. You have the 2009 guys, who we just can’t predict, both because they don’t have much time in the minors and because they were never very consistent in college: Eric Arnett, Kyle Heckathorn. Because of my proximity to their high schools, I have some hope for Jake Odorizzi and Cody Scarpetta, but each has their own warts. The only pitcher in the system that I have total faith to reach the Majors is Zach Braddock, if only because he has the LOOGY fallback thanks to a great slider.

To an extent, I think Milwaukee’s string of successful Major Leaguers makes us believe that these guys, these top prospects, will naturally slot into the holes Doug Melvin opens for them. But, more than ever, the Brewers face the onus of needing these guys to succeed, because there’s just not enough depth for them to put together plan B.

Part of me wants to criticize the Indians process for procuring prospects, if only because they were so dogmatic in the 2009 draft: their first 10 picks were four-year college players. While process has been a clear aspect of each organization’s analysis in this series, I struggle to put a lot of weight in it here, if only because the Indians’ young talent is so bountiful. And as a proponent of college baseball, and a backer of many players in the Indians system, I just don’t have a lot of criticism. But even if you want to ascribe some penalty for the amateur scouting department’s obvious leaning, give credit where it’s due: the Indians scout the minor leagues better than any team in baseball.

Mark Shapiro makes a lot of trades. He realizes when they can’t compete that trading veterans for something, anything, is worth it. And, given their market share, the Indians often aren’t able to keep their stars, so before losing them in free agency, Shapiro adds much by flipping them. He does this because they are the right moves, but also because of a faith that the people his team tell him to acquire are very good at their job. It’s a trust that has been earned. Recognize (I’m cherry-picking off the top, but I think that’s excusable given how one-sided these are):

June 30, 2006: Indians trade Eduardo Perez to Mariners for Asdrubal Cabrera.
July 26, 2006: Indians trade Ben Broussard to Mariners for Shin-Soo Choo, Shawn Nottingham.
July 26, 2008: Indians trade Casey Blake to Dodgers for Carlos Santana, Jon Meloan.

The insignificance the Indians traded away here isn’t worth the increase of my word count, but the ability to recognize Cabrera, Choo and Santana is such a credit to this organization. Yes, Cabrera needs to find the plus defense of his minor league days, and Choo might be a platoon player, but who cares? There’s also Santana, a converted catcher, who wasn’t a top 20 Pioneer League prospect for me in 2006, but is now a consensus top 20 prospect in all of baseball. It was the heist of all heists, and it sure makes you wonder about Connor Graham, Scott Barnes, and Yohan Pino, the three pitchers Shapiro acquired last year for Rafael Betancourt, Ryan Garko and Carl Pavano, respectively.

Then, there’s the big trades. The Sabathia trade, where I could point out the team chose Michael Brantley as the player to be named later, who could lead off for this team down the line. That’s if the prize of the trade, Matt LaPorta, isn’t in his way. You have the Cliff Lee trade, which should net four Major Leaguers, including one of the team’s better pitching prospects in Jason Knapp. And I can’t say enough about getting value for Victor Martinez, because you all probably know about my long-standing affinity for Justin Masterson. To add Nick Hagadone on top, another highly rated pitching prospect, is icing on the cake. I haven’t even mentioned the Mark DeRosa haul, if only to spare myself from Erik Manning’s groans.

This is all to say nothing of the team’s homegrown talent, which is impressive itself. I see the best of this amateur scouting department in the 2008 draft, when the team found Lonnie Chisenhall at a junior college (after he was kicked off the South Carolina college team), took a chance on high school arms Trey Haley and T.J. House, and paid decent dollars to college guys like Zach Putnam, Cord Phelps and Tim Fedroff. The team left no stone unturned, and snagged quite a bit, as I think Chisenhall is their future third baseman. Putnam and House, meanwhile, are among an embarrassment of pitching prospect riches. The quality minor league arms include the names I’ve mentioned here, but also: Alex White, T.J. McFarland, Jess Todd, Clayton Cook, Hector Rondon, Chris Jones, Steven Wright and others.

All in all, Cleveland has put themselves in a really good position to succeed starting in a year or two. This isn’t a division where they’ll be drastically outspent, so as you see, good scouting helps a team rise to the top. While the Indians don’t do things in the traditional sense, the way they do it is working. And, ultimately, that’s what this whole series is about.

When Geovany Soto parlayed a 2007 breakout season in Triple-A with the Rookie of the Year award in 2008, it appeared the Cubs tortured recent history with position prospects might be coming to an end. Soto (and to a lesser extent, Ryan Theriot) was destined as pay-back for the many disappointments: Corey Patterson, Felix Pie, Brian Dopirak, and more. But nothing comes easy to this organization, as Soto turned 3% of his line drives into ground balls from 2008 to 2009, and saw his BABIP drop 86 points as a result. Soto’s true value is probably somewhere in between, and even a sustained 3 WAR pace going forward would make him the Cubs best farm-produced player since Carlos Zambrano.

This bad streak is destined to change soon, as Cubs fans will soon see the benefits of employing revered scouting director Tim Wilken. The director made a controversial splash in his 2006 draft debut with the Cubs, “skimping” on Tyler Colvin in the first round to save money for Jeff Samardzija’s record-breaking fifth round bonus. But Wilken has been more by-the-book since, with first round picks Josh Vitters (2007), Andrew Cashner (2008) and Brett Jackson (2009) representing three of the team’s top five prospects. This consistency on the domestic front will blend well with an international scouting department responsible for producing Soto, Zambrano, Carlos Marmol, and now top prospect Starlin Castro. The success extends to the Asian rim, where Derrek Lee’s father has built a foundation that helped produce Castro’s potential future double play partner, Hak-Ju Lee.

The prospect of a homegrown left side is both very real and very exciting for Cubs fans, so much so that some have called for Castro’s Major League debut as early as Opening Day 2010. That won’t happen, but there have been indications that Jim Hendry has talked with Theriot about moving to the keystone eventually. Castro still has a ways to go to meet his potential, but scouts have commented positively on all five of his tools this offseason. As for Vitters, his timetable coincides nicely with that of Aramis Ramirez, who should not be counting on his 2012 team option to be picked up (the Cubs will use a one-year stopgap if Ramirez turns down his $14.6 player option for ’11). They’ll need the discount, however: Alfonso Soriano will be making $18 million through 2014.

Besides Soriano, most of the money the Cubs have committed will come off the books following the 2011 season. Ted Lilly will come off the books following this season, where he could be replaced by one of the Cubs three solid pitching prospects: Cashner, Jay Jackson and Chris Carpenter. Another should take over the fifth slot in the rotation — as early as this All-Star Break, in fact — so the Cubs threaten to open 2011 with four homegrown starters: Zambrano, Randy Wells and two prospects joining Ryan Dempster. This is a testament to Hendry’s recruitment of Wilken, a long-successful international scouting department, and an organization learning to lean on its farm system.

There are a lot of factors in play that make Aroldis Chapman one of the most exciting subplots of the 2010 season. There’s the 101 mph fastball. There’s Dusty Baker. There’s the Cuba-to-America transition. No matter what angle you come from, there’s intrigue to be had. And given the perfect storm of Reds availability at this moment — featured today at #20 in our organizational rankings, and currently on MLB Network (with Aroldis on the mound today) — I wanted to check into where the readership stands on Chapman’s rookie season.

Over at Tango’s blog, there has been a fascinating discussion on Stephen Strasburg, and the very optimistic 2.86 ERA the Oliver projection system at Hardball Times spit out (ground we covered a bit here when I forecasted a 3.95 FIP). This followed with a poll that Tango asked, “the chance Strasburg will post an ERA BELOW 2.50 = the chance he will post an ERA ABOVE…” So, in addition to asking what kind of innings totals we are expecting from Chapman, and what kind of component FIP statistics you project, I’m going to duplicate Tango’s question as well.

If you’d like to participate, just click on the survey below. We’ll let it stay live for the rest of the week, and I’ll return after his next appearance to report the findings, and shed some light on my votes (and impressions on his outings this spring). Now I turn it over to you.

Dare I say, the Oakland A’s have the most incongruous group of young talent in any Major League organization. In one cluster, you have these unathletic sluggers like Chris Carter or Jake Fox, but in the other, the team seems dedicated to defensive fast-twitch guys like Ryan Sweeney, Rajai Davis and Jemile Weeks. The pitching side is just as schizophrenic, with the talents ranging from prep stars (Brett Anderson, Ian Krol) to the polished college players (Dallas Braden, Tyson Ross); from the international heists (Pedro Figueroa) to the Dominican bonus baby (Michael Ynoa). It’s fascinating to see a team once so self-limiting now dedicated to casting a wide net.

This is not a bad thing by any means, even if it makes summarizing their future talent in 600 words a difficult proposition. Oakland is simply now an organization that seeks out the best value where they can find it, seemingly discarding the process that made them endearing to Hollywood. They are left with a lot of depth, an identity I can’t put my finger on, and one of the most interesting futures of any team. And Brett Anderson, who has the advantage of counting Dave Cameron among his fan boys. If Anderson can maintain the velocity that he showed late last season — and there’s little reason to think he can’t — there isn’t a skill he doesn’t possess. He will be the A’s best pitcher for the next five seasons.

Their best position player is harder to come by. Chris Carter, I think, will be their best hitter. I was impressed in Spring Training to see a slimmed down version of who I’d heard about, but scouts still don’t like his defense. Assuming a -5 glove, Carter will need to hit like 2007 Jack Cust (.256/.408/.504) to be 3 wins above replacement. I think Carter can be in .900 OPS territory, but digging out of such a hole to get to 3-4 WAR is not where you want to be. Michael Taylor is in a similar boat, needing to be +22.5 or so with the bat to be a three-win guy. Kurt Suzuki has been one of the game’s most consistent players for three seasons, and should peak somewhere between that 3-4 WAR bubble, depending on how you view his defense. All-Joy Team member Ryan Sweeney also can get to that level on defense alone, so the A’s should be willing to put up with a league average bat. Whether it’s Jemile Weeks or Eric Sogard, Rajai Davis or Adrian Cardenas, I see a lot of guys that will struggle to get past four wins.

So, in a way, as different as these players seem by pedigree, the A’s are hoarding players that should be locks for 2-4 WAR for their team-controlled seasons. It’s democratic, but it will be hard to compete with such a forward thinking division unless some of these players blossom into stars. I like Grant Green and Max Stassi quite a bit, but they are years away from contributing. As far as the pitchers behind Anderson go, you again have a lot of similarly valued talent, if a little more in way of upside. Trevor Cahill will be better in 2010, but his strikeout rate bears watching. I like Vin Mazzaro a lot, and others love Gio Gonzalez, but each has their hurdles to get past.

Depth is one of the best compliments we can give a Major League farm system, and the A’s are filled with it. I see three second baseman, three first baseman, a couple catchers, a dozen outfielders and a lot of pitchers that might contribute to the A’s in the next six seasons. But, outside of Anderson, I don’t see any stars.

Aroldis Chapman seems an apt exclamation point for the Reds dedication to player development, particularly on the international side. Whether it’s Chapman’s contract or his fastball, the Cuban southpaw is the symbol that Cincinnati’s future lies in the hits and misses of their scouting department. Chapman excluded, the Reds have given only seven two million dollar bonuses in franchise history, and four of them happened in the last two seasons. As Will Leitch says, ‘”The Reds always seems to have one or two studs on the farm … who never end up becoming what dreams had held, but these days they seem likely to break that spell by sheer volume.”

Many of these important pieces could be breaking the spell this season. In fact, you might say Joey Votto bucked the bust trend last year with his 4.5 WAR, but that still wasn’t a full season of work. And it certainly wasn’t paired well with the players more hyped than he: Jay Bruce (1.5 WAR), Johnny Cueto (1.6) and Homer Bailey (1.4). For the Reds to truly succeed in the next four seasons (what’s left of Votto and Cueto’s team control), all four will need to begin big-time full season production in 2010. Without re-hashing why each is still a good bet to succeed, be sure that they are.

One of the reasons the Reds farm system would rank as one of the highest is because just how close to the Majors their top prospects are. Dusty Baker can’t help himself with young players, and it’s been true this spring, where it appears Chapman might break camp with the team, and Baker has called for Mike Leake to not be far behind. With their development this season, the exits of Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo, and the return of Edinson Volquez, the Reds 2011 rotation might be the Majors most exciting (if volatile).

On the position player side, you just hope that Dusty Baker doesn’t interfere too much with what could be. Drew Stubbs is deserving of a chance to play in the Major Leagues, and while Baker won’t like the strikeout numbers that result, his defensive performance should mask any offensive issues: a league-average season with the bat should still net 3 wins above replacement. I’m not sure who ultimately wins the Chris Dickerson, Wladimir Balentien, Chris Heisey battle in left field, but if it’s any of them, the outfield defense should be excellent. If it’s Yonder Alonso, or even Todd Frazier, both of whom will struggle to find a role other than left field in this organization, I think Stubbs will have to shade over pretty far. With five players for one spot, it’s certainly hard to predict the best offensive plus defensive talent of the bunch.

Since Wayne Krivsky brought Chris Buckley in to manage the scouting department in 2006, the Reds have also stepped up their international scouting. Now, not only are they drafting well, but the team is gambling on talents like Yorman Rodriguez and Juan Duran. Neither was good last year, but this is a situation when the results can’t effect the process. Given the impossibility of competing with the Cubs and Cardinals on a salary level, these swing for the fence approaches are necessary. They did so with Chapman, and he like he’ll offer some quick return on investment in his first stateside season. Sheer volume stands in the Reds favor, and should leave Cincinnati with a few superstars to get behind soon.

Change is afoot in Detroit, as the rebuilding of the Tigers organization began this offseason with the acquisitions of Austin Jackson, Max Scherzer, Phil Coke and Daniel Schlereth. The team complemented their budget shaving of Curtis Granderson and Edwin Jackson with a long-term deal for Justin Verlander. The plan is clear: build around Verlander and Miguel Cabrera, and slowly begin to shed the long-term commitments that handcuffed Dave Dombrowski in recent offseasons.

The good news is the sanity of the front office, beginning with Dombrowski, who has his weaknesses but is also a trained artist at rebuilding organizations. Dombrowski’s best signing with the Tigers might be scouting director David Chadd, who has done well with a large scouting budget since coming over from the Boston Red Sox. Surely, part of the sales pitch was the budget itself, as it has afforded Chadd the ability to draft players like Rick Porcello and Jacob Turner, even when their bonus demands scared away other teams.

Every scouting director has his preferences, and Chadd is as transparent as anyone. Porcello is 6-foot-5. Ryan Perry is 6-foot-4. Turner is 6-foot-5. Casey Crosby is 6-foot-5. Etcetera. The team is stacked with these types of pitchers, going after guys with an intimidating presence, an intimidating fastball, and a downhill plane. In this sense, there might be no one better to build around than Verlander.

This is going to create the effect of a revolving door of flamethrowers in Detroit, and could mean some really nice pitching staffs. Porcello is only going to get better in his second season — his start against the Twins last season in Game 163 showed the type of pitcher he can be consistently. Scherzer is a great asset that will be under control for the length of Verlander’s extension, and the lower minors will be stocked with guys looking to join them in 2012 or so. Crosby and fellow lefty Andy Oliver will bring some left-handed mix to the Tigers rotation, and the reports on Turner are fantastic.

The bullpen is just as good, as the Tigers will have a lot of cheap options to pair with the expensive Jose Valverde. Ryan Perry held his own last year after being rushed to the Majors, and is now reunited with a former college teammate on a similar schedule, Daniel Schlereth. It won’t be long until they are joined by Cody Satterwhite and Robbie Weinhardt, which again will create a very similar, yet very dangerous, pitching staff.

Once again, however, we are left wondering if a team’s offense will be able to keep up with the pitching staff. It will be important for Cabrera to stay good for a long time, both because of his cost on the roster and a lack of other dangerous middle of the order hitters. Ryan Strieby could add some power in the DH slot, and you’ll still cross an occasional believer in Wilkin Ramirez or Casper Wells, but most likely, the middle of the order will have to come from outside the organization.

Dambrowski can probably make do with the surrounding pieces, starting with his new toy, centerfielder Austin Jackson. Few prospects spark such a wide range of opinions, but I think we can sort of set a median expectation on his performance last season in Triple-A. Jackson has the athleticism to blossom into something more powerful, and the baseball savvy to become more patient, but anticipating anything north of .350 in the wOBA column for his team-controlled seasons is projecting too optimistically.

Jackson will be joined as a rookie on this roster by both Scott Sizemore and Alex Avila, middle-round college guys with low upsides. These aren’t guys that will hurt, and aren’t guys likely to exceed 2 WAR anytime in the future. Truly, the only player in the system I think you can hope for more than that is Daniel Fields, a prep shortstop given $1.625 million last year. But Fields is too far away to be a factor in this series, so the point remains: Chadd’s obsession with big pitchers may have gotten in the way of creating a balanced farm system. Things will be different in Detroit very soon, but the idea of looking for offense on the free agent market will remain a Tigers staple for the foreseeable future.