Projecting Chapman
There are a lot of factors in play that make Aroldis Chapman one of the most exciting subplots of the 2010 season. There’s the 101 mph fastball. There’s Dusty Baker. There’s the Cuba-to-America transition. No matter what angle you come from, there’s intrigue to be had. And given the perfect storm of Reds availability at this moment — featured today at #20 in our organizational rankings, and currently on MLB Network (with Aroldis on the mound today) — I wanted to check into where the readership stands on Chapman’s rookie season.
Over at Tango’s blog, there has been a fascinating discussion on Stephen Strasburg, and the very optimistic 2.86 ERA the Oliver projection system at Hardball Times spit out (ground we covered a bit here when I forecasted a 3.95 FIP). This followed with a poll that Tango asked, “the chance Strasburg will post an ERA BELOW 2.50 = the chance he will post an ERA ABOVE…” So, in addition to asking what kind of innings totals we are expecting from Chapman, and what kind of component FIP statistics you project, I’m going to duplicate Tango’s question as well.
If you’d like to participate, just click on the survey below. We’ll let it stay live for the rest of the week, and I’ll return after his next appearance to report the findings, and shed some light on my votes (and impressions on his outings this spring). Now I turn it over to you.
I should point out if anyone wants to use this as an open thread for Chapman’s appearance, go for it. I’m in front of my TV, and Chapman is just six outs from taking the mound.
First inning was good. Here’s the velocity on the MLBN gun:
93cs, 97fb, 79ss
96ss, 86b, 86x
96b, 94x
The out pitch to Tulowitzki was nasty — Brantley called it a change-up. The 86 mph slider wasn’t great, I didn’t think. The arm action on his fastball is ridiculous, as others have noted.
Inning two not so good. Velo was down to 89-91, though he could still reach back and hit 95-96. Offspeed stuff was mixed in A LOT, probably a coaching decision to work on it.
But he just couldn’t grip baseball. I’d be shocked if we don’t hear about a blister, given the presence of trainer.
I would go Higher on the Era if that was an option. I don’t think there is any chance in a below 2.5 era unless he is used exclusively out of the pen.
There probably is, but now that we’re in motion, I’ll leave it as-is. i would say with that opinion, vote the highest number and we’ll take that into consideration in our post-survey analysis.
The chance of Chapman having an ERA of 2.5 or less? Maybe equal to the chance that he has an ERA over 7.5. I don’t see either happening unless he has a short sample of innings, however (cut short in the positive case for injury and in the negative case for the obviously horrible ERA).
I’d probably have went lower on the innings. I think it’s in his best interest to spend the entire season in the minors working on his command and consistency with his offspeed stuff. Then in September, you can call him up and give him a legitimate shot at a rotation spot in 2011.
But you think that’s what the Reds will do?
It’ll likely depend on how competitive they are in the NL Central. If they get off to a slow start, I could definitely see them leaving him in the minors until September. If they are battling the Cardinals for the NL Central crown, I could see them bringing Chapman up even if he isn’t ready to pitch out of the bullpen (which I think he could do without any minor league seasoning).
I went with 60 innings, 9.5 K/9, 4 BB/9
I think there is a very minor possiblility that he manages a 2.50 ERA, but certainly not if he comes up too early. There are four possibilities that I see. Either they bring him up early or in September, and either they pitch him out of the bullpen or start him. I don’t see him getting a 2.50 ERA unless he pitches in September or possibly out of the bullpen, and even then who knows. It will depend on how he can develop during the year and his stamina. I’m not too sure that he has the pitches right now to have a sustained run as hitters see him repeatedly. The Reds haven’t got the toughest September schedule in the world, so it could happen depending on who he faces. I can’t help but feel that the Reds’ decision will be more based on where they are than where he is though.
According to AP, Chapman left with lower back stiffness, something that has evidently been bothering him for a few days. Did the Reds know about his back stiffness? I wouldn’t have had him pitch if I knew about that.
Also, the Reds officially say it was muscle spasms.
The chance Chapman will post an ERA BELOW 2.50 = the chance he will post an ERA ABOVE… 8
50/50, either it happens or it doesn’t
You should do this for living.
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