Author Archive

FanGraphs Chat – 5/29/13

11:40
Dave Cameron: The queue is now open. We’ll get started in 15 minutes or so.

12:02
Comment From Jeff From Austin
What in the world would you do with Bossman Junior?

12:02
Dave Cameron: Play him and wait for the slump to end. It’s just a slump, and it will end.

12:02
Comment From the Gregorius D.I.D.(i)
if you were the O’s would you demote Gausman at this point or let him keep taking his lumps at the MLB level?

12:02
Dave Cameron: It’s two starts.

12:03
Comment From Ryan
The Cardinals, Reds and Pirates (tied with Texas) have the 3 best records in baseball. How many (and which ones) make the playoffs?

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When Stars And Scrubs Doesn’t Work

The Milwaukee Brewers have two of the top ten players in WAR, and neither of them is named Ryan Braun. Carlos Gomez (+3.2 WAR, #1) and Jean Segura (+2.5 WAR, #9) have been revelations for the Brewers, while Braun has been his usual dominant self, putting up +1.9 WAR with his usual brand of excellence. Toss in a strong performance from the underrated Norichika Aoki and 78 terrific plate appearances from the occasionally healthy Aramis Ramirez, and the top end of the Brewers line-up has been as good as any in baseball. For context, here is the total combined line for Gomes, Segura, Braun, Aoki, and Ramirez:

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What Does Jesus Montero’s Future Look Like Now?

The Mariners stuck with it for 735 innings. Despite the fact that nearly everyone in baseball agreed that Jesus Montero could not catch at an acceptable level in the Major Leagues, the Mariners let him try for the equivalent of a half season spread out over eight painful months. Now, it seems like the organization is accepting the reality that Jesus Montero is not, and will never be, a Major League catcher. As of today, he isn’t even a Major League player.

The Mariners are swapping out Jesuses in their backup catcher role — Montero had already lost the starting gig to vaunted superstar Kelly Shoppach — by replacing Montero with Jesus Sucre, the polar opposite of Montero as a player. Sucre is a no-bat defensive specialist, but given Montero’s struggles on both sides of the plate, a non-prospect catch-and-throw backup is probably an upgrade at this point.

So, with Montero back in Triple-A for the foreseeable future, I figured it would be a good time to re-do an exercise we did with Montero 17 months ago, when he was first traded from New York to Seattle. At that point, we walked through a list of comparable bat-first prospects who reached the Majors at an early age, noting that players of this type have turned into superstars, but that the median forecast based on similar prospects called for Montero to turn into a good hitter, not a great one. I ended that piece with the following paragraphs:

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The 2013 Cubs: Better Than We Think

This morning, the following tweet from Gordon Wittenmeyer showed up in my timeline.

I hadn’t noticed this specifically, but once he said it, I did start to wonder about the Cubs record. After all, they’re getting quality offensive production from the likes of David DeJesus, Anthony Rizzo, Nate Schierholtz, and Luis Valbuena. Jeff Samardzija continues to look like an ace. Scott Feldman is living up his billing as the bargain free agent starter of the winter. Travis Wood is having a lot of success, even if it’s not all sustainable. Even after their early bullpen problems, Kevin Gregg has revitalized his career and has yet to give up a run in 11 innings of work.

With so many things going right, how are the Cubs 18-27? And, as Wittenmeyer’s tweet notes, are they actually playing better than their record suggests?

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Andre Ethier is Now Eminently Available

All winter, there were rumors that the Dodgers were open to trading Andre Ethier. All winter, the Dodgers declared that there was nothing to those rumors, and that they weren’t having second thoughts about the five year, $85 million contract they gave him last June. When spring training rolled around and Cuban import Yasiel Puig became The Hot New Thing, those rumors picked up again, since the Dodgers will need to open up a corner outfield spot for Puig at some point in the not too distant future.

But, LA remained patient and optioned the 22-year-old Puig to Double-A, giving him some experience against professional pitchers without throwing him immediately into the fire. They also gave Ethier a chance to play most everyday, and while they were unlikely to admit it publicly, they likely hoped that he could get off to a strong enough start to re-establish some trade value after his power fell off in the second half last year.

Today, though, manager-of-the-moment Don Mattingly sent a pretty clear signal that he is not Andre Ethier’s biggest fan, and you can probably start the clocking ticking on both of their exits from Dodger Land.

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FanGraphs Chat – 5/22/13

11:47
Dave Cameron: It’s Wednesday, so let’s spend an hour or so talking baseball.

11:47
Dave Cameron: Queue is now open, and we’ll start in about 15 minutes.

12:00
Comment From Ken
Dave – Thanks for the chat. Wondering about your view of Corbin. Can a SP have sustainable success with one great pitch – the slider – once everyone knows it’s coming?

12:01
Dave Cameron: It’s possible, but also very rare. Randy Johnson made it work, but he was 6’10 and threw 100 mph. Madison Bumgarner is probably the closest comparison you could draw to Corbin, but his command has historically been much better, and again, he’s taller. It will be interesting to watch though.

12:01
Comment From Michael
The pirates all-stars this year are….

12:01
Dave Cameron: Andrew McCutchen, A.J. Burnett if he keeps this up, maybe Russell Martin.

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Investigating Alex Sanabia’s Pitches

Last night, Alex Sanabia gave up a home run to Domonic Brown in the second inning, and as he was walking back to the mound, the video appears to capture him spitting on the baseball. Sanabia then proceeded to retire 14 more batters without allowing any more runs, and the Marlins beat the Phillies 5-1. Based on the video evidence, it seems as though Sanabia may have been throwing a spitball last night. Based on the fact that he had one of his best starts of the season, by results, it appears as though the spitball might have fairly effective.

Of course, this is all still highly speculative. We only have that one video clip of him spitting that one time, and because the clip is very short, we don’t actually know what happened before he threw the next pitch. Maybe he dried the ball off. Maybe the spit didn’t actually hit the ball, and it’s all a camera angle trick. If we’re going to assume that Sanabia was throwing a loaded baseball, we should investigate a little further.

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Alex Sanabia Might Be In Trouble For Spitballing

Let me preface all of this by saying that it’s always possible that a quick video replay could be missing necessary context and misrepresenting what actually happened. There is some uncertainty when viewing events from afar, especially in a narrow timespan. It is possible that what you’re about to see isn’t what it looks like.

But, uhh, it sure looks like Alex Sanabia was caught on video spitting all over the baseball after allowing a home run to Domonic Brown tonight. As pointed out by one of our commenters, you can see the video here, and pay attention at around the 13 second mark.

Or, if you’d rather, just watch this helpful GIF, care of Jeff Sullivan.

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Edward Mujica: The Other One Pitch Closer

Mariano Rivera is the best relief pitcher of all time, and his 20 year run of greatness has mostly been fueled by throwing one pitch. The dominance of Rivera’s cut fastball has been well documented, and you likely know that when the Yankees have the lead in the 9th inning, opponents are going to see cutter after cutter after cutter.

But, now, over in St. Louis, Rivera has an odd imitator of sorts. No, the Cardinals closer is not a cutter specialist; he doesn’t even throw one. Instead, Edward Mujica — the team’s emergency fill-in closer with Jason Motte on the shelf — is closing out games using an endless supply of change-ups.

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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 5/20/13

12:01
Dan Szymborski: Will the circle-change be unbroken, by and by, by and by? The answer to this and a percentage of other questions asked coming up next, on the Dan Szymborski Baseball-Related Chat of Doom and Ultimate Destruction!

12:01
Comment From zack
Homer Bailey or Lance Lynn rest of season?

12:02
Dan Szymborski: Irish Creme by a sip.

12:03
Comment From Tim
Can you explain why HBP and BB have different weights in wOBA?

12:03
Dan Szymborski: It’s from historical data. Most likely is that HBP is more random — some unintentional walks are going to be “partly” intentional and those “partly” intentional walks are, on average, going to be given in slightly lower leverage situations.

12:04
Comment From Ray
Curious as to what you expect from Grandal once he comes back. I did not see ZiPS on his player page. Would you expect more of the same as last year or would you discount his offense as a result of the positive PED test?

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