Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 5/20/13

12:01

Dan Szymborski: Will the circle-change be unbroken, by and by, by and by? The answer to this and a percentage of other questions asked coming up next, on the Dan Szymborski Baseball-Related Chat of Doom and Ultimate Destruction!

12:01

Comment From zack
Homer Bailey or Lance Lynn rest of season?

12:02

Dan Szymborski: Irish Creme by a sip.

12:03

Comment From Tim
Can you explain why HBP and BB have different weights in wOBA?

12:03

Dan Szymborski: It’s from historical data. Most likely is that HBP is more random — some unintentional walks are going to be “partly” intentional and those “partly” intentional walks are, on average, going to be given in slightly lower leverage situations.

12:04

Comment From Ray
Curious as to what you expect from Grandal once he comes back. I did not see ZiPS on his player page. Would you expect more of the same as last year or would you discount his offense as a result of the positive PED test?

12:04

Dan Szymborski: As of yet, we do not have sufficient evidence of significant changes in future performance after positive PED tests.

12:04

Dan Szymborski: So I expect him to be about where projected.

12:04

Comment From The Oriole Bird
Have you seen JD Sussman’s take on the recent Gausman outing he watched? He gives high praise for the pitcher!

12:04

Dan Szymborski: I have not, though I shall check it out.

12:04

Dan Szymborski: I’d like to say I had a busy weekend, but I really didn’t.

12:05

Dan Szymborski: I mostly watched baseball and played Borderlands 2, which I finally got around to playing.

12:05

Comment From Dayton Moores Terrible, Horrible, No-Good Very Bad Week
Facing Houston pitching this week should help, but what are the easiest fixes for the Royals’ offense? Thanks for chatting.

12:06

Dan Szymborski: At this point, the easiest fix is patience. Now, it may not be a fix, but the Royals in-season options are limited unless they’re going to part with players of significant value

12:06

Comment From Northsider
Travis Wood and Scott Feldman: Who nets the Cubs a better prospect at the deadline?

12:06

Dan Szymborski: Wood has more value, but I suspect the Cubs hang onto him unless they’re bowled over.

12:07

Comment From zack
Who should the Cardinals use as their 4 and 5 starters? Who will they? And what are the odds both are better than a healthy Westbrook?

12:08

Dan Szymborski: I’d definitely want to start getting Rosenthal back in there, but unless I’ve missed something, they haven’t shown much inclination.

12:08

Dan Szymborski: After all, if they were really wanting to do that, he would’ve gotten the nod before Gast did.

12:09

Dan Szymborski: And since they’ve added Tyler Lyons, odds are even longer of them doing it.

12:09

Dan Szymborski: I’m not super optimistic about either, but I wasn’t optimistic about Westbrook either.

12:10

Dan Szymborski: Once again, when I watch Westbrook pitch, I think of the “Homie the Clown” episode of The SImpsons in which Krusty is betting on the Generals over the Globetrotters.

12:10

Dan Szymborski: And the Globetrotter is spinning the ball on his finger and Krusty’s yelling at the TV “HE”S SPINNING THE BALL ON HIS FINGER! JUST TAKE IT!”

12:10

Comment From STiVo
The Cubs season in a GIF-nutshell: http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/2615443/scottfeldman.gif (h/t: Jon Bois)

12:11

Comment From David
Chris Davis + Aramiz Ramirez for Verlander. This is as lopsided as I think it is right? In a keeper no less ..

12:11

Dan Szymborski: I’d prefer Verlander, but I’m much more optimistic about Davis’s level being significantly better than it was previously. It’s not quite as lopsided as you think.

12:11

Comment From zack
What is more shocking: Delmon walking on 4 pitches or Chapman giving up back to back homers?

12:12

Dan Szymborski: Delmon.

12:12

Comment From Los
Will the Pirates finish above .500?

12:12

Dan Szymborski: Slightly.

12:12

Comment From Seven
Is Machado this good or is this a function of his first time through the league and people have to figure out how to pitch to him?

12:12

Dan Szymborski: He’s very good, though I don’t think *quite* this good

12:13

Dan Szymborski: But last year was his first time through the league.

12:13

Comment From Clownbro mcQuestions
is Braun for Hosmer/Middlebrooks/Lincecum just really dumb in a 5th year, 16 team, 5×5 keep 12 or worth actually protesting?

12:13

Dan Szymborski: I dont’ think it’s a protest-worthy trade

12:14

Comment From zack
What is your take on the Phillies pitch running cliff lee (a 35 year old pitcher) for Delmon (a 27 year old outfielder)?

12:14

Dan Szymborski: If you have an outfielder that you feel less comfortable running than your best pitcher, it sheds a very poor light on the thought process that led to that signing in the first place

12:15

Comment From Blockhead
How feasible would it be to transition from being in public accounting with a CPA to the financial side of a major league organization? How high could you start out at in the organization?

12:15

Dan Szymborski: That seems tough – they’d be most interested in accountants for the accounting department

12:16

Dan Szymborski: Unless you had noted contributions to the baseball analysis community.

12:16

Comment From JCougar
What is going on with Moustakas. A week ago, it looked like he was over his slump. Now he looks terrible again. What does his ROS look like?

12:17

Dan Szymborski: I still think he’ll be OK. A sub-.200 BABIP isn’t sustainable unless you’ve stuck an actual little leaguer in there or something

12:17

Dan Szymborski: *Pitchers* tend to be in the .220s.

12:17

Comment From TB
Do you like Ryu? What sort of line does he end up with?

12:18

Dan Szymborski: He still smells #3ish.

12:18

Dan Szymborski: Unless you’re talking about Street Fighter Ryu, who will no doubt hadouken his way to the playoffs.

12:18

Comment From Northsider
How do you see Odorizzi performing tonight vs Toronto?

12:19

Dan Szymborski: Something like 5/3?

12:19

Comment From AJT
Did Chris Johnson sell his soul to the BABIP Gods?

12:19

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think he sold his soul, he just consumed that of MIke Moustakas.

12:19

Comment From Furman
I stashed a few TJ pitchers on my bench in a dynasty league. What are your thoughts concerning Danny Duffy, Joe Wieland, Drew Hutchison, and Arodys Vizcaino?

12:20

Dan Szymborski: TJ pitchers are by their very nature speculative stashes, so there’s a huge array of possibilities there. I’d be most comfortable with Wieland, I think.

12:20

Comment From Wood
14 teamer, I need OF help BAD. Real bad. But have pitching. Who should I trade out of Felix, Gio, Harvey, Cahill, Minor? (Yahoo redraft 6×6 (OPS, K/BB)

12:21

Dan Szymborski: Honestly, it’s hard to say becuase I don’t know how the other owners in your league consider those players.

12:21

Dan Szymborski: You shouldn’t ever focus on who you want to trade but about what you can get for which player.

12:21

Comment From Greg
Do you like Eric Chavez to outperform his ZiPS ROS projections?

12:21

Dan Szymborski: No.

12:21

Comment From Archer
Any of these strugglers droppable in 12-team H2H (OBP instead of AVG)? Aybar, Montero, Moustakas, Weeks.

12:22

Dan Szymborski: Depends on who you’re dropping them for.

12:22

Comment From Guest
Besides almost getting arrested for being underage and attempting to purchase alcohol…

12:22

Dan Szymborski: I wasn’t almost *arrested* I don’t think.

12:22

Dan Szymborski: BUt it was awkward.

12:22

Dan Szymborski: Those that don’t follow me on Twitter (and thus, bad people), the story was I was picking up a bottle of vermouth at the grocery store

12:23

Dan Szymborski: The cashier didn’t believe I was born in 1978, asked me if I was using an older brother’s ID

12:23

Dan Szymborski: and called in the manager. Who looked at me an announced that he was sure that I was in my 30s because of my slightly receding hairline and the lines on my face.

12:23

Dan Szymborski: Now keep in mind this was at a grocery store on a saturday, so there were a lot of people behind me.

12:24

Comment From Doctor Met
buying ubaldo’s resurgent K-ability?

12:24

Dan Szymborski: Not sure if I’m buying yet, but I’m at least fingering my wallet and wondering if I should run by the ATM.

12:24

Dan Szymborski: He tricked us last year a few time with really solid runs.

12:24

Comment From Timmy
Thoughts on WTF is going on with Brett Lawrie?

12:25

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure he’s actually completely healthy.

12:25

Comment From RA Rowe
Have you heard anything more specific than “rumblings” on Ethier being traded to make room for Puig? Any partners or targets?

12:25

Dan Szymborski: I have not heard anything specific. These Dodgers *always* think they have the pot odds.

12:25

Comment From JEB
Rickie Weeks…RICKIE WEEKS?! Jesus…please tell me hes going to get better.

12:25

Dan Szymborski: I keep saying to wait, but it’s getting pretty frustrating.

12:25

Comment From Furman
How broken is Ackely? Is moving him up to #2 in the lineup recently, an act of desperation?

12:26

Dan Szymborski: It’s surprising me too, but I think he may need to beat up the PCL for a few weeks.

12:26

Dan Szymborski: He really *looks* confused there.

12:26

Comment From Ben
Who do I take for the rest of the season: Colon or Straily?

12:27

Dan Szymborski: still straily. unless you’re talking about your actual colon

12:27

Dan Szymborski: Not Using a Colostomy Bag > Straily > Colon

12:27

Comment From TJ
Is it time to give up on V-Mart? He still looks lost…can’t believe he’s not hitting to his career averages…

12:28

Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t trust him at all at this point. He’s not driving anything.

12:28

Comment From Wasted AB
Who finishes with a higher wOBA, The Astros or Josh Hamilton?

12:28

Dan Szymborski: I think Hamilton still wins that in the end.

12:28

Comment From Ian
Thoughts on Mitch Moreland in a ten-team roto league?

12:28

Dan Szymborski: Still sell-high – there’s probably someone who’s overrating his breakout

12:28

Comment From BassmanUW
It seems to me Theo and Jed have recognized a market inefficiency: the ability to get guys you can slide into the 4 and 5 spots in rotations cheap. Would you agree? Or is it more that the Cubs have the option to roll the dice on these sorts of guys because they haven’t been actively looking to compete the last 2 seasons?

12:28

Dan Szymborski: I do agree at the value of league-average inning eaters at the back.

12:29

Dan Szymborski: It was a reason that I picked the Cubs for the over in my prop bets column

12:29

Comment From Ian
Do you have any suggestions for encouraging trades? Our league’s had only two all year.

12:29

Dan Szymborski: It can be hard to shift league culture.

12:29

Comment From The Oriole Bird
What kind of projection would Kyle Blanks get as an Oriole DH? He’s a lumbering RH power hitter. Seems like a good fit for a win-win trade, if the O’s are willing to deal something of comparable value, right? Or maybe not, if Blanks’ wRC+ for ZiPS(R) is 103. Thoughts?

12:30

Dan Szymborski: He’d be fun, but he’s had such an up-and-down career. Depends what the O’s have to give up

12:30

Comment From Chris
When Colorado calls up Oswalt, who losses a rotation spot. Is Nicasio’s spot safe??

12:30

Dan Szymborski: Nicasio just earned himself a repreive over the weekend.

12:31

Comment From newzooreview
Shields. Will he get more Run Support ROS? All his losses have been by 1 run.

12:31

Dan Szymborski: Well, he should get more than he has

12:31

Comment From Tom
With this shoulder surgery, is Jaime Garcia done as an effective starting pitcher?

12:32

Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t say that yet, but shoulder and pitcher is a scary thing to have in the same sentence.

12:32

Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t even let a pitcher eat pork shoulder, just in case The Gods consider it hubris.

12:32

Comment From BassmanUW
I’d presume Travis Wood’s value over Scott Feldman’s isn’t necessarily that Wood is a better pitcher, but instead that Feldman will be a free agent again next season and Wood hasn’t even hit arbitration yet?

12:32

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, Wood has future value. ThougH Id o like Wood better.

12:32

Comment From Bob Loblaw
Does ZIPS ROS incorporate current season performance (subject of course to regression, etc)?

12:33

Dan Szymborski: Well, yeah. Else the ROS wouldn’t change!

12:33

Comment From Ian
I’m sitting in first in ratio categories, but I’m behind my innings pace. Do I stream immediately, or wait until August and see what the standings dictate? There are so many x vs. Miami and x @ SD outings!

12:33

Dan Szymborski: I’d try to up it a little. RIght now, you have control – if you’re far behind the IP, your moves will be based in desperation if it’s September

12:33

Comment From Alan
Is the starting pitching for the Indians anywhere near this good or is the team going to fall hard when McAllister, Jimminez, and Masterson come crashing back to Earth?

12:34

Dan Szymborski: I’m a McAllister skeptic, but Masterson and Ubaldo have always had reasonable upside.

12:34

Comment From pixar
Who is called up first, Gerrit Cole or Gausman? and who do you like better long term?

12:35

Dan Szymborski: I think Gausman’s going to get called up first. The O’s keep palying down his chances, but the hints about him skipping AAA suggest that it could happen

12:35

Dan Szymborski: I’m probably talking a little bit about Gausman in my ESPN piec e tomorrow

12:35

Comment From RA Rowe
What’s more surprising Delmon Young looking like garbage in the outfield, or that he is not picking up garbage for some steel belt municipality?

12:36

Dan Szymborski: Wouldn’t his assault charge hurts his chances at a government job?

12:36

Comment From Doctor Met
very odd to ask this but if you want to win this year (and immediately again next) would you roster bundy or gausman. Bundy’s elbow really worries me.

12:36

Dan Szymborski: Gausman. Any rumor of arm injury causes a downgrade.

12:37

Dan Szymborski: Tough, but pitchers are like teenagers in slasher movies.

12:37

Comment From Brick
How do you like Borderlands 2? Its an extremely enjoyable multiplayer with friends.

12:37

Dan Szymborski: Fun game. Though for multiplayer, I’m still mostly on TF2

12:37

Dan Szymborski: Sadly, a poster here playing TF2 with me yesterday heard me use the word “applicationed”

12:38

Dan Szymborski: After midnight on allergy medicine, my grasp of the english language slips.

12:38

Comment From Ian
Does the ZIPs computer portend good things for Matt Cain’s home run rate?

12:38

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS has him moving just a hair above his recent rates

12:38

Comment From person
Jason Bay just walked and stole a base. Feeling anxious about streaming Kazmir today…

12:38

Comment From Officer Ramathorn
i’ll nerd this place right up. You in or out oN the Star Trek reboot. The newwest one brought me completely in! Baseball question…so is Jordan Zimmerman the best pitcher for the Naitonals the rest of the year?

12:39

Dan Szymborski: Still think it’ll be Strasburg.

12:39

Dan Szymborski: I don’t really like reboots generally. I feel they work best when the original is out of stories to tell and the original really destroyed the brand.

12:40

Dan Szymborski: In this case, I think the universe they were in, there was still room for a lot of storeis

12:40

Dan Szymborski: and at this point, I don’t really care about new stories with kirk and spock

12:40

Comment From Tyler
Think AJ Pierzynski or Yasmani Grandal is a better option than V-Mart at this point? How sad…

12:41

Dan Szymborski: Both

12:41

Comment From CJ
What chances do you give Lewis Brinson to make it to the show with a 40% K rate in A ball?

12:41

Dan Szymborski: It certainly reduces the odds of him blowing through the minors quickly

12:41

Comment From Jonathan G
What should we expect from Zack Wheeler when he arrives? And will he be innings-capped out by September?

12:41

Dan Szymborski: Still think he’s 100 ERA+ish this year.

12:41

Dan Szymborski: Though I thought that about Harvey!

12:41

Comment From Greg
Sell high on Patrick Corbin now or do you think he can keep it together a bit longer?

12:42

Dan Szymborski: Always depends on what you can get.

12:42

Comment From Goose
Just traded Masterson and Henderson for Cole Hamels . … did I make a mistake?

12:42

Dan Szymborski: I like Hamels better, but I would not have made that trade

12:42

Dan Szymborski: But again, I’ve generally been optimistic on Masterson

12:43

Dan Szymborski: So I might have some ocnfirmation bias

12:43

Comment From AJT
What do you think of Borderlands 2 thus far? I just started playing it recently as well.

12:43

Dan Szymborski: Like. Fun art style.

12:43

Comment From JonnyD
Do you like Milone? Can he keep up the success with the velocity?

12:44

Dan Szymborski: His control’s good enough and the park a good enough fit that he can

12:44

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS has been a fan of him for aquite awhile

12:44

Comment From jay
If the O’s fall out of it and consider selling in the summer, how much could JJ Hardy bring back in return assuming he plays as expected until then.

12:44

Dan Szymborski: His glove is excellent, but I can’t see the O’s getting a huge return

12:45

Comment From gouis
What does Heyward have to sacrifice to the BABIP gods to get some luck? He’s creaming the ball but getting nothing

12:45

Dan Szymborski: Sacrifice goats to Wee Willie Keeler.

12:45

Dan Szymborski: It’s the only way to stop hitting ’em where they am.

12:45

Comment From Ken
Is there any reasonable basis to hope to see Hosmer become a top flight 1B, or was my faith in Keith Law, among others, misplaced?

12:45

Dan Szymborski: I think so, but I’m also oen of the people that really really liked him

12:45

Comment From RK
Danny Espinosa is known to be damaged and is the only regular with a sub .200 OBP! Rizzo gave him a vote of confidence over the weekend. Do you believe that or think we’ll see Rendon at 2b shortly?

12:45

Dan Szymborski: Talking about this tomorrow.

12:46

Comment From Micha
some of my roto gurus are telling me to sell high on Josh Donaldson – how wrong am I to think he’s for real?

12:46

Dan Szymborski: It’s been enough time that he’s improved, but you shooudln’ bank on all the improvement. If someone wants to, make ’em pay

12:46

Comment From Clownbro mcQuestions
Gregorius or Simmons?

12:47

Dan Szymborski: Simmons real-life, Gregorius’s park probably gives im fantasy edge at this point

12:47

Dan Szymborski: Have to say I’m not displeased that ZiPS relatively optimistic projection for Gregorius hasn’t flopped. He was not a favorite of people in the offseason

12:48

Dan Szymborski: (ZiPS had him like 40 points of OPS above Steamer, 50 above OLIVER)

12:48

Comment From Braves Fan
Jonny Venters 🙁

12:48

Comment From Goose
If Profar is a success, do the Rangers find a spot for him, Kinsler, and Andrus going forward?

12:48

Dan Szymborski: I think the Rangers will need to trade Profar in the end.

12:48

Comment From JonnyD
Kris Medlan – what’s up

12:48

Dan Szymborski: Nothing wrong with Medlen. Expectations were just out of whack and his run support has cuked.

12:48

Dan Szymborski: suckec

12:49

Dan Szymborski: sucked

12:49

Comment From Merkwurdigliebe
what do you think is the most realistic scenario keeping Profar in TEX with consistent playing time for the ROS?

12:50

Dan Szymborski: Some reshuffle involving Murphy. Hard to fit otherwise without new injuries once Kinsler returns.

12:50

Dan Szymborski: Of course, Murphy’s better in May

12:50

Dan Szymborski: But he’s still probably the most logical obstacle to all 3 getting playing time unless you’re supersubbing Profar

12:50

Dan Szymborski: and I’m not sure I want to use a guy who can handle SS as a supersub.

12:50

Comment From Andrew
Re: Chapman, when you take into account they were homers by Kratz and Galvis, it HAS to be the bombs.

12:50

Comment From gouis
I hate being carded so much. I basically have a policy of not returning to restaurants/bars that card me unless they’re really awesome. It’s just uncivilized to card people who are clearly older than 21.

12:51

Comment From Northsider
What cocktails were you going to make with the vermouth?

12:51

Dan Szymborski: None. Was making vichyssoise

12:52

Comment From Puck
Would you swap Joey Votto for Paul Goldschmidt in a keeper league?

12:52

Dan Szymborski: No

12:52

Dan Szymborski: Well, depends on if there are rules that make keeping Votto much harder for you

12:52

Comment From Greg
Why can’t Jordan Pacheco get playing time in Colorado?

12:52

Dan Szymborski: His glove sucks at the position he would be needed at

12:52

Comment From Sean
Why do DRS and UZR vary so wildly? For example: the Giants are 4th in UZR despite -6 DRS.

12:52

Dan Szymborski: I woudln’t get too excited about defensive stats early on

12:53

Dan Szymborski: I’d use a long-term regressed mix for defense.

12:53

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, you lose in-year evaluation, but I think short-term defensive evaluations are futile

12:53

Dan Szymborski: so you have to do it more on a probability basis

12:53

Dan Szymborski: It’s like 1-year park factors – there may be signal there, you’ll just never find it

12:54

Comment From Guest
Hello Dan, why do people say that Joey Votto is the best hitter in baseball when Miggy Cabrera clearly is? What are your thoughts on who is the best hitter?

12:55

Dan Szymborski: It’s Cabrera

12:55

Comment From Micha
my step-child uses a fake id and she looks her age imo (17) – how young do you really look?

12:55

Dan Szymborski: It depends.

12:55

Dan Szymborski: My hair is getting near a shortcut and I was completely clean-shaven, which tends to make me look younger.

12:55

Comment From Chicago Mark
Sorry, didn’t give my name on Votto/Cabrera question.

12:56

Dan Szymborski: I don’t even look at the names, lest I end up favoring the regulars.

12:56

Comment From Chicago Mark
Doesn’t Fielder/Cabrera lineup dis-prove the FG lineup protection (or lack thereof) theory?

12:56

Dan Szymborski: One example can’t prove or disprove anythign

12:56

Comment From Django
Do you prefer Pence+Latos or Beltre? My current 3B is Moustakas

12:57

Dan Szymborski: Hmm, I’d prefer the former because I love me some Latos and you don’t get Beltre’s D, but I’m getting a *little* concerned about moose tacos

12:57

Comment From Dan Weaver
When will ZIPS incorporate TWTW? Can TWTW be approximated by 1-R-squared in your forecasts?

12:57

Dan Szymborski: Heh

12:57

Dan Szymborski: As someone over on southsidesox, Hawk’s needs TWTSTFU

12:57

Comment From paul konerko
are all the doomsayers wrong about me?

12:57

Dan Szymborski: Partially

12:57

Comment From Hank
Drop Willingham for Teixeira? Both have wrist issues. Zips seems to like Willingham more.

12:57

Comment From Kyle
josh willingham is gonna bring his average up, right?

12:58

Dan Szymborski: His BA will be up, though not to the level at which he’ll be a plus there

12:58

Comment From guest
Every Indians everday batter currently has an ops higher than where ZiPS has them (except Asdrubal). Fluke? Coaching? Team’s history of cooling off?

12:58

Dan Szymborski: All or none. The thing about small sample sizes is that it’s hard to reduce the season

12:58

Comment From Chicago Mark
Nicasio is better than he’s pitched….isn’t he?

12:58

Dan Szymborski: I think so

12:58

Comment From Tony
What do you think of Lester going forward? ZiPS RoS ERA is 3.92 – that seems a bit high.

12:58

Dan Szymborski: I’m more optimistic than ZiPS

12:59

Comment From joe
whats your take on lucroys terrible start?

12:59

Dan Szymborski: While you may not want chastity given quite yet, constancy and patience are important here

12:59

Comment From Chicago Mark
If you think Chris Davis will keep his gains in contact%, will you be adjusting his projections?

12:59

Dan Szymborski: I won’t be adjusting anything

12:59

Comment From jay
Is David Price’s horrible start explained by his injury, just a small sample or other?

12:59

Dan Szymborski: I’m not panicking yet

1:00	Comment From Chicago Mark Is Garcia definitely having surgery?

1:00	Dan Szymborski: Nto definitely, but I think ti’s where it’s headed

1:00	Dan Szymborski: The last 2 months was the attempt to recover without major surgery

1:00	Comment From Slappy Is there any real info available for Erasmo Ramirez? I keep thinking TJ by July

1:01	Dan Szymborski: He’s had the Mystery Triceps Injury That They Never Talk About since March

1:01	Dan Szymborski: I suspect that he got called up into an alien air force, Last Starfighter style.

1:01	Comment From Guest Could Jurickson Profar stick after Kinsler returns? Maybe supplant Murphy?

1:02	Comment From Ben thoughts on Kazmir? Topping out at 90-91 early today?

1:02	Dan Szymborski: I don’t know, the game’s on, but I’ve been focused on you guys

1:02	Comment From joe Do you think middlebrooks turns it around?

1:02	Dan Szymborski: To a degree. He’s never going to be a scientific hitter and he was way overrated coming into the season

1:03	Dan Szymborski: I call this phenomenon Desmond Jennings Syndrome

1:03	Dan Szymborski: in which even very smart people, upon seeing a big breakout in part of a season from a very good prospect, overrate a player because the breakout tends to fit the narrative

1:04	Comment From Chicago Mark Is Gausman an Oriole? They have a long recent tradition of failed pitching prospects. Why should we believe in this one more than the Ariettas or Matusz’s or Tillmans?

1:04	Dan Szymborski: Well, technically he’s a Bay Sock, but he’ll be an Oriole soon

1:05	Dan Szymborski: Ever get your socks wet in the chesapeake? Bay Sox must smell awful.

1:05	Comment From Dan Weaver Does Harold Reynolds only jump on the TWTW bandwagon because real statistics say he actually kind of sucked? Growing up I always thought he was a decent player…but I was also only 10.

1:05	Dan Szymborski: Well, he’s always been on that bandwagon

1:06	Comment From RA Rowe What are the ZiPS projections on the yucca harvest this season?

1:06	Dan Szymborski: Cloudy with a chance of cassava

1:06	Dan Szymborski: Mildly pessimistic – I’m no cassavanova.

1:06	Comment From AJT I remember back when Star Trek was Star Trek. The new movies are the same.

1:06	Comment From Beric Dondarrion Why isn’t Cole Hamels good anymore?

1:06	Dan Szymborski: It’s been 6 wekes

1:06	Comment From Mike Is there evidence that closers perform worse in non-save situations?

1:07	Dan Szymborski: I haven’t found it. If someone else has, it’s missed my radar

1:07	Comment From Eminor3rd Orioles a good fit for Peavy? Might be the best you can do without giving up Gausman/Bundy. Or will the trade market be such that the O’s could NOT get Peavy without Gasuman/Bundy?

1:07	Dan Szymborski: I thoink they’ll get him without. Real A prospects for a rental are increasingly rare

1:07	Comment From Kyle Profar + j. zimm is too much for Heyward right. Especially with his start?

1:07	Dan Szymborski: Yes

1:08	Comment From hartey the weast i know its hard to project but what kind of numbers you think pineda puts up this year?

1:08	Dan Szymborski: I woudln’t expect much

1:08	Comment From Halo help Is Josh Hamilton a write off or is there any reason to have a little optimism?

1:08	Dan Szymborski: well, he’s better than he is. He’s almost certainly had the worst part of his season

1:08	Comment From B Cloyd worth a spot start vs. Miami tomorrow?

1:08	Dan Szymborski: Anyone against Miami

1:08	Comment From jon Is Morrow worthless, should I drop him or is there any chance he will be worth anything at some point?

1:08	Dan Szymborski: I’d hang onto him

1:08	Comment From harveyman are you ever going to answer my question? Who wins? Profar for heath bell?

1:09	Dan Szymborski: Bell only in a redraft

1:09	Dan Szymborski: I get a ton of questions. I can’t answer them all.

1:09	Dan Szymborski: I’d have to double my answering speed just to answer 15% of them

1:10	Comment From Sean Do you think Goldschmidt will outperform ZiPS ROS?

1:10	Dan Szymborski: Better than 353/496? No.

1:10	Comment From chuckb Isn’t any return for Hardy dependent, at least partly, on how well Kozma plays?

1:10	Dan Szymborski: Strangely, the Cardinals evaluation of their SS situation seems very independent of how Kozma actually plays

1:11	Comment From zack Who would you rather have: matt Adams or Jesus Montero?

1:11	Dan Szymborski: Adams in real life, Montero in fantasy

1:11	Comment From Benji what to expect from Profar in this stint? Not much? Or does he light things on fire?

1:11	Dan Szymborski: Between those two!

1:11	Comment From Robin “not displeased….hasn’t flopped” Holy triple negative, Batman!

1:11	Comment From Mac Van Dance Profar or Andrus as the starting SS in pinstripes next year? normally Asdrubal would be in convo but for some reason they are winning.

1:12	Dan Szymborski: I don’t want to think abotu Profar in pinstripes! Unless the O’s change their uniform

1:12	Comment From Bryz Are you doing this chat on a cell phone? Seems like it with the typos.

1:12	Dan Szymborski: No, I’m just typing very, very fast

1:12	Dan Szymborski: I lose 95% accuracy when I go over 100-110 wpm

1:12	Comment From James Is Dave Cameron upset about how well Miggy is doing?

1:12	Dan Szymborski: No.

1:12	Comment From The Oriole Bird Do you think the Orioles will continue their recent spate of aggressive promotions with Nick Delmonico if he continues his success?

1:13	Comment From RSquared Uh-oh here come Lackey! His command is sharper but as an older pitcher coming back from TJ, will his stamina dissipate post ASB?

1:13	Dan Szymborski: They’ll certainly not run him into the ground

1:13	Dan Szymborski: and they haven’t eyt

1:14	Comment From JonnyD RE: But Medlans usual control isn’t there currently and right now he’s not even a good pitcher. What should realistic expectations be?

1:14	Dan Szymborski: You can’t assume 1.5 BB/9 is his usual control

1:14	Comment From Crawdad Would you rather be the GM that trades Profar or have to work for Loria?

1:14	Dan Szymborski: Profar. I’d get something in return.

1:14	Comment From Kyle Gausman and Schoop at 2nd wouldn’t be enough of a mid season boost to bring the O’s to contention, would it?

1:15	Dan Szymborski: It’s not like they’re out of contention. But it wouldn’t hurt

1:15	Comment From Jack What do you make of the people who don’t post their questions in the CIL applet and instead leave them in the comments section as if this were a traditional FG post?

1:15	Dan Szymborski: It’s kind of strange. They are different formats.

1:15	Dan Szymborski: It’s like returning an email with a telegram!

1:15

Comment From Harjit
re: Profar; so you really think he’ll have to be moved? Does he not have enough value at 2B for Tex? (In the idea that they can force Kinsler to 1B) or is that just not maximizing value? Seems crazy to trade Profar given the hype. And, would it basically have to be for Price/Stanton or Tavares? I mean, does anything else really make sense?

1:15	Dan Szymborski: It’s just that it is an inefficient use of resources.

1:16	Dan Szymborski: If you’re not going to use Profar’s ability to play short or Kinsler’s ability to play second, if the price is right, you should let someone else pay you for those things.

1:17	Dan Szymborski: It’s like having a lamborghini that you drive and a lamborghini you use to store canned goods. Sell the second lamborghini to someone who wants to drive it and use the return on something you’ll use optimally.

1:17	Comment From TJ Haven’t seen much analysis on V-Mart…did he just lose all his skills in a 1 year layoff? Not like he’s being physically taxed crouching behind the plate all day…why isn’t he hitting and do you expect him to start?

1:17	Dan Szymborski: Dunno. Just doesn’t look like he has anything in him when he tries to drive the ball

1:18	Dan Szymborski: It wasn’t just a layoff, it was a torn ACL

1:18	Dan Szymborski: Legs are important for a hitter.

1:18	Dan Szymborski: I’d be more optimistic if he simply took a year off to sunbathe and drink pina coladas

1:19	Comment From Lobs Law Bombs Any idea where Yahoo gets the projected stats they use in their fantasy baseball tool?

1:19	Dan Szymborski: I assume internal

1:19	Comment From Greg Do you think a risk-averse strategy involving taking position players early in the draft over pitchers and taking lots of arms later is something more teams should consider?

1:19	Dan Szymborski: I’m risk-averse early in drafts in general

1:19	Dan Szymborski: Why roll the dice with my best shot? Let someone else gamble.

1:20	Comment From Travis L Would ZIPS be able to accurately identify a pitchers’ park switch? Say, a flyball guy moving from CIN to OAK, where fly balls go to die… Is there more than just looking at basic park factors? In reverse, seems like Weaver would have trouble moving to CIN, etc…

1:20	Dan Szymborski: Season-to-season moreso

1:20	Dan Szymborski: In-season is simplified so that it can be updated daily

1:21	Dan Szymborski: Let’s put it this way: A player projection takes 20 seconds on an i7-3930k processor.

1:21	Dan Szymborski: (in regular ol’ ZiPS)

1:21	Comment From B-Unit When does Kyle Gibson get the call for the Twins?

1:22	Dan Szymborski: The sooner the better.

1:22	Comment From Cynical Bastard Have Profar or Odorizzi MiLB changed anything significantly from preseason forecast?

1:22	Dan Szymborski: Don’t believe so

1:22	Comment From Benji Who needs a SS with a brilliant glove the most? Does Brendan Ryan have any trade value, or will the .205OBP put people off the scent?

1:22	Dan Szymborski: People will take a bad-hitting great-glove SS, but there’s still a downward limit to that.

1:23	Comment From Benji Similar to Slappy’s question, is there anything on the Hultzen front?

1:23	Dan Szymborski: I believe he’s still shut down with his rotator cuff pain

1:23	Dan Szymborski: The M’s are keeping injury news to themselves.

1:23	Comment From Chicago Mark I understand that one example can’t prove/dis-prove. But A. Cabrera/Fielder is about the best example out there. And B. I’d bet there are others. Any comment other than the company line about lineup protection?

1:24	Dan Szymborski: A great example is still just an anecdote.

1:24	Dan Szymborski: It’s just a convenient anecdote.

1:24	Comment From Crawdad If you had to have a medical procedure named after you for all time (ala Tommy John), what would it be?

1:24	Dan Szymborski: Penile enhancement.

1:26	Comment From Crawdad Summer is awesome. What is your projections ROS?

1:26	Dan Szymborski: ZiPS projects a 23° 26′ axial tilt.

1:26	Comment From John The mets have nothing to play for this year. Wouldn’t it then be more important to them to keep giving everyday at bats to ike davis and juan lagares, for example, against big league caliber pitching? Starting Rick Ankiel and talks of demoting Ike go against the plan

1:26	Dan Szymborski: It would be.

1:26	Comment From Chicago Mark How many people in the chat Dan. You’ve answered about 5 or 6 of mine. Don’t start looking at the names now!!!

1:27	Dan Szymborski: RIght now, 550. Chats tend to vary between 400-800 at any given moment.

1:27	Comment From peachesnnuts wow a live chat from monrovia. I never get internet, biggest variation in performance from zips so far?

1:27	Dan Szymborski: Probably Hamilton

1:27	Comment From Beric Dondarrion Peavy isn’t a rental. He has another (affordable) year on his contract.

1:28	Dan Szymborski: Year and a half is still a rental. If I’m giving up a top, top prime prospect, I want more than that

1:28	Comment From Napes Mets are talking about calling up Wheeler in 2-3 weeks. Is this too soon?

1:28	Dan Szymborski: No.

1:29	Dan Szymborski: OK, declaration of Lightning Round

1:29	Dan Szymborski: I’ll answer pretty much any question until I reach the end of my queue on any subject, so long as it can be answered quickly

1:29	Comment From Napes If you could have any super power, which would it be?

1:29	Dan Szymborski: The power to make anybody STFU

1:29	Dan Szymborski: and make it retroactive

1:30	Comment From Adam How relevant is Freddie Galvis in an NL only 12 2014 league?

1:30	Dan Szymborski: Still better in real life

1:30	Comment From Kyle Does Schoop make the starting squad at Camden this year? More likely he is at 2nd or he is traded this year?

1:31	Dan Szymborski: Assuming his back is OK, I think he gets a peek in steptember. Didn’t have a great start

1:31	Dan Szymborski: and that assume his back issues don’t continue

1:31	Dan Szymborski: And then we can cue the mispronunciation of his name!

1:32	Dan Szymborski: If broadcasters still think there’s a player named “Annabelle Sanchez” he may end up with his name rhyming with poop isntead of pope for years

1:32	Comment From Crawdad People who whine about you not answering their questions ROS? (Comeon guys-class it up!)

1:32	Comment From Shlum Balfour, Joey Bats . . . Who’s the angriest man in MLB?

1:32	Dan Szymborski: Nolasco

1:33	Dan Szymborski: I’ve heard from multiple people close to the situation that he’s even more frustrated than you see from the media reports

1:33	Comment From Crawdad Any SP have a sub-2.00 ERA by end of season?

1:33	Dan Szymborski: No

1:33	Comment From Chicago Mark Does Daniel Hudson get his rotation spot back? Who loses out?

1:33	Dan Szymborski: He’s not getting it on a silver platter – he’s going to have to show he has something left to get into the mix again

1:33	Comment From Nolan By the end of the year, is Gyorko a top 10 fantasy 2B?

1:34	Dan Szymborski: That may be touhg. He does things that fantasy doesn’t really capture and fantasy doesn’t care about his park.

1:34	Dan Szymborski: He is, of course, my archnemesis.

1:34	Comment From Matty Math AKA ZIPS lova 4 life Who’s first 6 week faceplant surpised you the most/

1:34	Dan Szymborski: Hamilton just due to degree.

1:34	Dan Szymborski: Being hacktastic never hurt him before!

1:34

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1:35

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1:35	Comment From Guest http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ESFtlpmPxT4 buxton walkoff granny

1:35	Comment From Sean Can we do a music trivia chat again?

1:35	Dan Szymborski: At some point.

1:35	Comment From RA Rowe Nickname for hire: The Seal Pup. Who gets it?

1:35	Dan Szymborski: We’l leave people to ponder that one

1:36	Comment From gouis THAT JUST FREAKED ME OUT

1:36	Dan Szymborski: When I had laryngitis, I got a thrill out of being able to do a horrific russian accent in a very low voice

1:36	Dan Szymborski: and Gyorko sounds like somebody in a spy film.

1:36	Dan Szymborski: On that note, time to end the chat for the week!

1:36	Dan Szymborski: Thanks for joining me everybody, hope to see you all next week.

1:37	Dan Szymborski: As my usual reminder, you can find most of my writing on ESPN.com, chats and projections and fangraphs, DSzymborski on Twitter, Steam and pretty much everywhere else because using my real name is the best way to ensure one behaes.

BAL	CHW	LAA
BOS	CLE	OAK
NYY	DET	SEA
TBR	KCR	TEX
TOR	MIN	HOU

ATL	CHC*	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
WSN	MIL	LAD
NYM*	PIT	SDP*
PHI	STL	SFG

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 5/20/13