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2012 Trade Value: #45-#41

#50-#46

Note: salaries are rounded estimates and include all team-controlled years. Rankings from 2011 Trade Value series in parentheses.

45. (28) Ben Zobrist, 2B, Tampa Bay – Signed through 2015 for $22 million.

Since 2009, when he became a full-time player, Zobrist has posted the second-highest WAR in the major leagues, with only future Hall of Famer Albert Pujols ahead of him by that measure. Given the deal to which he’s currently signed — a four-year extension from 2010, with very afforadable option years ($7.0 and $7.5 million, respectively) in 2014 and 2015 — there’s every reason to believe that the Rays will extract considerable surplus value from Zobrist. As a trade commodity, however, Zobrist is slightly less valuable, owing to the fact that his production comes from areas that tend to have less value in the open market: defense, baserunning, and plate discipline.

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2012 Trade Value: #50-#46

Now that we’ve looked back at last year’s Trade Value list, we’re ready for the 2012 version. Before we get to the rankings, here’s a quick recap of the idea behind the list, and what we’re trying to measure:

If every player in baseball was made available for trade, who would generate the most in return for their current club? Since it only takes two clubs to start a bidding war, we’re not trying to measure who has the most value to all 30 clubs, but rather who which player has so much value that they’d command a larger return in trade from one team than any other player. Some of the players on this list will be guys that many franchises can’t afford, but they still have significant trade value to high revenue clubs. Others are not quite as strong of performers on the field, but they’ve signed contracts that are extremely team friendly and would be franchise building blocks for lower revenue clubs. I’ve tried to balance out the value of performance and cost over the number of years that a team would control a player’s rights in order to determine which players have the most value as we head towards the 2012 trade deadline.

As a reference, we’ll be listing the years and dollars that a team has a player under control for including all team option years, as the assumption is that those are all seen as positive net value years, and would be seen as such by an acquiring team. The amount remaining on the contract includes half of their 2012 salaries and all future guaranteed salaries plus base salaries covered by the team options, though many deals have complicated option structures, buyouts, and bonuses that make these more of a ballpark figure than an exact accounting of what they’ll make going forward. For players who have remaining arbitration years, it is obviously impossible to know exactly what they’ll make in those years, so we’ll just list how many more trips through arbitration they have coming.

So, without further ado, let’s get to the last five guys on the list.

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What I Learned From the 2011 Trade Value Series

With the trade deadline a couple of weeks away, baseball is full of discussion about what kinds of players will be on the move and what kinds of players they’ll command in return. As usual, the types of players being made available are players who are headed towards free agency – Cole Hamels, Zack Greinke, Ryan Dempster, and Shane Victorino, to name four. However, when the summer trading season rolls around, we like to ask what players actually have the most trade value in baseball right now – in other words, if every player in baseball was available in trade, who would bring back the biggest return for their organization?

I’ve been doing this list for a while — after borrowing the idea from Bill Simmons, who does an NBA style version of this every year — and before putting together the list each summer, I look back at the previous version and try to see where I made some mistakes and what I can learn from how things have gone in the last 12 months. We’ll be rolling out numbers #50-#46 in a few hours, but before we get to this year’s list, let’s look back at last year’s and see lessons we can learn. First, the complete list.

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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 7/16/2012


Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 7/2/12


If It Really Counted: AL Edition

Yesterday, Major League Baseball announced the rosters for the 83rd annual all-star game. I gave my picks for both the AL and NL last week under the current everyone-gets-a-rep-and-half-the-league-gets-in format, but when putting together the roster, I realized that this isn’t at all the kind of team I’d send to win a game that actually counted for something. And, since it’s supposed to count – what with the winner getting home field advantage in the World Series and all – we thought it’d be worth exploring what rosters for next week’s All-Star Game would look like if winning was truly the priority.

So, today, we’re answering that question – what teams would the AL and NL put together to face off next week in a one game winner-take-all showdown? We dispatched with the 34 man rosters and the need for every franchise to have a representative, and simply set out to build a roster that would give each league the best chance to win one game against the other league. I’ve got the AL and Wendy Thurm has the NL, which will be released here in the next couple of hours.

AL vs NL – this time it really counts. Who’s in? Here’s my take on the 25 guys I’d bring to Kansas City to walk away with more than just bragging rights.

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What’s Going on at Safeco Field?

It’s no secret that the Mariners home park is one of the more pitcher friendly ballparks in the Majors. Because of it’s asymmetrical dimensions, its especially beneficial to left-handed pitchers who can take advantage of the large area in left-center field, allowing right-handed batters to pull the ball without getting penalized by as many home runs as they’d allow in a neutral ballpark. Jason Vargas is the best current example of this phenomenon, as he’s allowed just five home runs at home and 16 on the road this season.

However, what is happening in Safeco this season looks like it goes beyond just the park effects that we already know about. For some reason, Safeco Field is just destroying offense this year in a way that it never has before.

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Josh Hamilton’s Weakness On Full Display

I don’t mean to beat a dead horse. I know I just wrote about Josh Hamilton’s approach at the plate on Tuesday. We’re not breaking any new ground here, but last night was such a striking example of Hamilton’s current problems, and the four images I’m about to show you make the point so obvious that they need to be recorded for posterity.

Josh Hamilton struck out four times last night. He reached base once, when he was beaned by the first pitch of an at-bat. I’m not going to show you that at-bat, because, well, he got beaned, so I’m pretty sure you know where the pitch was. Here are the MLB Gameday graphics for his other four at-bats.

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Bauer and Cashner: An Object Lesson in Hype

Trevor Bauer makes his Major League Debut tonight. Carson already wrote about it, and the coverage of his impending promotion has included months of conversation, including a movement to #FreeTrevorBauer. Bauer’s big league debut has been heavily anticipated and is now going to be heavily watched.

However, there’s another guy getting called up from the minors to join the rotation of an NL West team tonight too, and he’s doing it with little to no fanfare. Carson didn’t even mention his start under “other notable games”, and no one has ever used the hashtag #FreeAndrewCashner. So, while the Trevor Bauer Hype Train rolls on, don’t miss out on Andrew Cashner’s first real big league start of 2012, because he very well may be the best pitching prospect to take the mound tonight.

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Stat Nerd NL All-Star Roster

We did the AL earlier this afternoon, so now we’re tackling the 34 man rosters for the National League. Quick primer in case you didn’t read the AL post — I value first half performance (even flukes) since I see the game as a reward for the players, every team gets a representative, and injured guys are not considered. On to the picks, with starters listed first.

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