Josh Hamilton’s Weakness On Full Display
I don’t mean to beat a dead horse. I know I just wrote about Josh Hamilton’s approach at the plate on Tuesday. We’re not breaking any new ground here, but last night was such a striking example of Hamilton’s current problems, and the four images I’m about to show you make the point so obvious that they need to be recorded for posterity.
Josh Hamilton struck out four times last night. He reached base once, when he was beaned by the first pitch of an at-bat. I’m not going to show you that at-bat, because, well, he got beaned, so I’m pretty sure you know where the pitch was. Here are the MLB Gameday graphics for his other four at-bats.
1st inning, vs Doug Fister:
Give him a free pass here – he didn’t really do anything wrong. He took the two pitches that were way outside and swung at the three that were in the strike zone. Fister just located well, and sometimes you have to tip your hat to the pitcher. Hamilton probably should be looking for pitches away only at this point, but that doesn’t mean he can hit every pitch on the outer half of the strike zone. This was more good pitching than bad hitting.
3rd inning, vs Doug Fister:
Again, Hamilton laid off two pitches that weren’t close, so kudos to him for that, but the rest of the at-bat was not great. Ahead 1-0, he swung at a very borderline pitch on the outer half at the knees. The next pitch was almost exactly the same and he swung at it again. He finished the at-bat by chasing three pitches out of the zone. Of the seven pitches he was thrown, only one was a strike, and he still struck out.
4th inning, vs Doug Fister.
The prototypical Josh Hamilton at-bat in June. Three pitches away, three swings, three strikes. You could credit Fister with good locations on the first two, and maybe laying off an 0-2 pitch away isn’t something Hamilton is ready for, but this was a clinic in how to get Josh Hamilton out right now.
8th inning, vs Octavio Dotel.
Dotel is a guy with very questionable command against left-handed batters, and exactly the kind of guy you don’t to be aggressive against. Let him fall behind in the count. Hamilton started to, then bailed him out. He chased a 1-0 fastball away, then a 2-1 fastball near the outside corner. Both of those pitches could have easily been called balls, and Hamilton could have been in extremely advantageous counts. Instead, he ended up 2-2 after four pitches, then had to defend against pitches right on the borders. If he takes either of the pitches out of the zone, he probably gets into a 3-0 or 3-1 count and gets a shot at a meatball or a walk. Instead, Dotel struck him out for the fourth time on the night.
In his last three at-bats strikeouts, he saw 16 pitches, and only one of them was clearly within the bounds of the strike zone. Fister and Dotel did a nice job of living near the outside corner, but Hamilton swung at 12 of the 16 pitches they threw and guaranteed that they’d be ahead in the count in each match-up.
On the night, he swung at 15 of the 22 pitches he was thrown, and one of those hit him. A 71% swing rate is just too high. I don’t know how to motivate Josh Hamilton to stop swinging the bat, but someone in the Rangers organization needs to figure out how to do it.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
I think you mean the count was 1-1 on that 3rd inning at bat, not ahead 2-1
Am I crazy, or do the descriptions not match the pictures? Green means ball, right?
Yes, but red doesn’t mean in the strike zone. Red = called strike, swinging strike or foul. So a ball well outside the zone that the batter swings at is a strike.
I mean a ball well outside the zone that is a swinging strike appears red.
specifically, which pic and pitch?
Well, in pic 2, pitches 1 and 5 are balls, so the count must have went: 1-0, 1-1, 1-2, 1-2, 2-2, 2-2, K. Yet Dave is talking about the 2-1 pitch, and how he is swinging at balls outside zone when he could have gotten the count to 3-1. The way I see it, pitches 2 and 3 where perfect, then he was left to protect the plate on the other pitches out of the zone. Maybe not the greatest hitting, but understandable.
I’m starting to think Dave Cameron feels Josh Hamilton needs to be a more selective hitter.
now only if Josh Hamilton feels like Josh Hamilton needs to be a more selective hitter…….
I’m sure he’s aware. What he needs is a good relapse to get over this mental hump.
Even if the horse is already dead its still shocking how bad Hamilton is doing right now. After that 4 homer game I thought he was set to win another MVP, now he looks like a minor leaguer. I get that he’ll bounce back but he has one of the biggest hole-y swings in baseball right now.
Anybody else click on the link expecting to see a picture of alcohol and drugs?
I laughed.
That 35.1% K rate is absolutely brutal.
In June I mean.
I don’t mean to beat a dead horse.
Your level of effort seems to reject this assertion.
That doesn’t look like Josh Hamilton in those pictures.
Surprised he took that pitchout from Dotel for a ball.
Against Dotel: “He chased a 1-0 fastball away, then a 2-1 fastball near the outside corner. Both of those pitches could have easily been called balls, and Hamilton could have been in extremely advantageous counts.”
The 2-1 fastball was a called strike; the only one called strike of the game for Hamilton.
Just conspire to have all his teammates and coaches refer to him as Vlad, and have Washington write “Guerrero” when making out the lineups.
Another Rangers hate article by a Mariners homer. Yawn.
and, obviously, being a Mariner homer makes Josh swing at bad pitches. You sir, are disregarding an article that is stating facts, with evidence to back it up, merely on the basis that it is NOT written favorably (for a member of your “homer” team).
Another Cameron hate comment by an Interweb troll. Yawn.
biased prick, etc.
/Skims over article
/Checks author
/Speeds to comment section
/Types “Another Cameron classic ripping on Texas”
/Considers
/
/Deletes
/Types “Another Rangers hate article by a Mariners homer.”
/Smiles smugly
/Decides it needs more to really push the point
/Adds “Yawn.”
/Giggles sheepishly
/Submits
/Refreshes page several times to check reactions
To the author: Do you think Hamilton will solve this and where do you think his batting average will end up if he doesn’t?
Thanks,
Don
72 strikeouts? pfft. call me when he gets to 120. adam dunn gets true results.
I have video of every at-bat Hamilton has had since 2010. This poor last month has been less about the pitchers throwing to him and more about Hamilton’s swing, which simply looks tired and slow. He hasn’t looked this bad at the plate for a sustained period of time since he eliminated the foot raise early in his MVP season back in 2010.
If someone told me he had been replaced by a less talented twin for the last month, I would almost believe it. He’s having a much tougher time making direct contact on good fastballs, even from RHPs. Which is odd, as he is widely considered one of the best fastball hitters in the game.
I also agree with this. Any highlight video shows him swinging in a very lazy, half-hearted manner. He seems sick and those trips to the DL pretty bear that out.
I definitely agree that the intestinal virus he had has sapped some of his strength. His trigger and bat look slow right now.
Makes my shot at MVP legit.
Does anyone know what the color of the trails mean?
The color of the trail is which type of pitch was thrown.
vs Fister: red = 4 seam FB, magenta = 2 seam FB, blue = curveball, dark blue = slider, lt blue = changeup
vs Dotel: purple = cutter
Hamilton has a wOBA=.423.
I am old enough to remember this running commentary from the 70’s about Dave Kingman, but could apply here.
Hamilton up, 2 outs, 2 strikes in the 9th – Rangers down a run with a man on first….here is a pick off attempt at first and…… Hamilton swings and misses – and that’s the ball game.