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Is It Just Easier to Scout Pitching?
In response to yesterday’s post about the risk-reward balance of prospect valuation, commenter “Hunter fan” made the following observation:
Another reason lists could be so pitcher heavy is that apparently pitcher, for some analysts, are easier to project. Sickles just did a few articles on this. Top pitchers, almost without exception, he rated as A or B+ prospects. The position players were all over the place, with several good position players being B- or C level prospects.
Just food for thought.
Pretty interesting food, actually. I’m not sure why I hadn’t thought of this earlier, but on the surface, this comment seems to pass the smell test. Kids in high school can throw in the mid-90s, and that’s a pretty easy thing to scout. They can throw nasty breaking balls that no one can hit. Likewise, there are always a few college arms who command their pitches so well that they’re considered to be nearly Major League ready before they ever sign a pro contract. With these types of premium pitching prospects, there’s not really a lot of projecting to be done – the forecasting involved is more along the lines of whether they’ll be able to stay healthy or not.
How Much Risk Is Worth Additional Upside?
Keith Law’s list of the Top 100 prospects in baseball came out today, though you have to be an ESPN Insider subscriber in order to see the rankings. Since the content is behind a paywall, I’m not going to give away too many of the rankings, but there were a few things on the list that caused me to do some thinking, and those thoughts inspired this post.
The first thing I noticed was how heavy the list was on pitchers. There’s only two pitching prospects in the top nine, but then 12 of the next 16 spots go to hurlers, and overall, 49 of the 100 spots on the list are occupied by pitchers. It’s not exactly breaking news that young pitching prospects get hurt and flame out at rates much higher than comparable hitting prospects, so in order to compensate for the extra risk they bring to the table, their placement has to be justified through additional upside. Keith’s a smart guy and understands all this, and I’m sure he’d be able to make a valid argument that each pitcher on the list has enough potential to justify their ranking even with the understanding of greater risk.
Play Ottoneu And Punch Cancer In The Face
As many of you know, last July I was diagnosed with Acute Myeloid Leukemia. I spent a good chunk of the summer in the hospital undergoing chemotherapy, and most of the end of 2011 was spent either getting treatment or recovering from said treatment. It wasn’t much fun — but after four rounds of chemo and an overwhelming amount of support from friends and the amazing online baseball community — I was given a clean bill of health in January and am now happily living in remission. We’re only a month out from my last biopsy, but the leukemia has yet to return, and my odds of beating this thing get better every day.
So, now that I’m back to living something that resembles a normal life, my wife and I have decided to fight back against the scourge of blood cancers. She’s a physician assistant in oncology and sees the effects of these diseases are on a daily basis, and so we’ve teamed up with four of her co-workers (and one husband of a co-worker) and are running in The Flying Pig half-marathon in Cincinnati on May 6th.
The 10 Worst Transactions Of The Winter
Major League teams are getting smarter. In prior years, we would have had easy pickings like the Barry Zito contract, the Carlos Lee signing, and even last year’s Vernon Wells acquisition. This year, there were some guys who got too much money, but there weren’t many instances of teams just paying through the nose for guys who just aren’t very good. I considered cutting this list down to just five transactions, honestly, as a few of the back-end ones have a decent chance of turning out okay for their respective teams, or the costs just are small enough that they aren’t really going to negatively effect the franchises in a big way. There were only a few deals this winter that I’d say teams are really going to regret long term. But, I said we’d do 10 of each, so here we go.
Like yesterday, the criteria is expected on field production, cost to acquire, and the impact the move will make in both the short run and long run for the franchise. These moves represent transactions where the team gave up something of legitimate value and, in my estimation, aren’t likely to get enough back in return to justify their investment.
#10 – Twins Sign Matt Capps for 1/4.75M
It’s a one year deal, so there’s no long term cost to the franchise. $5 million spent on another player wouldn’t have changed the Twins fortunes one way or another. But, still, it’s hard to understand why the Twins thought they needed to give Capps this kind of contract. He was a below replacement level reliever last year, watched his strikeout rate drop from 19.3% to 12.4%, and gave up home runs in a park where no one gives up home runs. And yet, only six relievers got larger contracts than Capps this winter. Darren Oliver got less. Francisco Cordero got less. LaTroy Hawkins got less. If the Twins wanted to spend $5 million on their bullpen, they could have gotten two or three decent arms for that. Instead, they got one mediocre arm who will continue to remind them that they could have still had Wilson Ramos instead.
Kershaw Avoids Arbitration With Two Year Deal
According to Dylan Hernandez, the Dodgers have avoided arbitration with Clayton Kershaw by signing him to a two year contract worth a total of $19 million. Jon Heyman notes that it will break down as $8 million in 2012 and $11 million in 2013.
Kershaw was eligible for arbitration for the first time, and had filed a request for $10 million while the Dodgers countered with an offer of $6.5 million. The two parties settled just south of the midpoint between those two figures for 2012, and then guaranteed Kershaw a 38% raise for 2013. That’s a bit of a discount over what he likely would have earned through arbitration had he followed up with another successful season, but he also disposes of some injury risk by taking the guaranteed money now. For context, both Tim Lincecum (2/23) and Cole Hamels (3/20) signed deals that paid them similar amounts when they were first-time arbitration eligible, though both were Super-Twos and were a year further away from free agency when they agreed to sell a few of their arb years.
Essentially, Kershaw offered the Dodgers the potential to save a couple of million on his 2013 salary – and avoid the never-fun arbitration hearings – in exchange for giving him a little more security in case he blows his arm out at some point this year. The Dodgers weren’t able to delay his free agency, or even buy out his final arbitration year, but they get a little bit of cost certainty for the next couple of years. If Kershaw stays healthy, he’s set himself up to get a massive extension in two years or hit free agency in three, all while getting rid of enough risk that he shouldn’t have to worry about his finances for the rest of his life.
While teams have been proactive in trying to get their young stars locked up sooner, this is probably a better path for elite young arms – establish yourself as a star, then sell off a bit of your arbitration earnings to get rid of some risk, and still set yourself up for the monster payday that comes with free agent eligibility. Don’t be surprised if more agents start pushing their young players to follow the Lincecum/Hamels/Kershaw path instead of the Matt Moore career path.
The 10 Best Transactions of the Winter
Roy Oswalt exlcuded, the off-season is basically over at this point. Sure, we might see a minor trade or two before spring training starts up, but teams have generally crossed most of the items off their winter shopping list, and today’s rosters will look pretty similar to the ones that most teams report to spring training with. So, now, it’s time to look back and evaluate the best and worst moves of the winter. We’ll start with the 10 best moves and tackle the worst tomorrow.
Transactions were judged on several criteria: Expected on-field performance, cost to acquire the player, and how important the transaction is in terms of affecting the team’s ability to contend either now or in the future. There were some good cheap contracts signed this winter that won’t really move the needle much for their teams, so even if they provide a better $/WAR return, they’re not viewed to be as important of a move as bringing in a good player who could really make a difference. On the other hand, teams who are rebuilding also made some good moves, so acquisitions that provide significant future value without tanking a team’s ability to compete in 2012 were also viewed in a positive light.
Overall, here are the 10 moves that I feel helped the organization improve their overall talent levels and put them in a better position to win either now or in the future.
Honorable Mentions: Angels Sign C.J. Wilson, A’s Acquire Seth Smith, Red Sox Acquire Andrew Bailey, Astros Acquire Jed Lowrie and Kyle Weiland, Cubs Acquire Anthony Rizzo, Rockies Acquire Marco Scutaro
Bourjos for Lannan? Surely You Jest.
Toward the end of his weekly Sunday notes column for the Boston Globe, Nick Cafardo included the following write-up on John Lannan:
Lannan, 27, is a terrific option as an end-of-the rotation starter now that Washington has signed Edwin Jackson. There is a lot of speculation that the Nationals will deal him to the Angels for center fielder Peter Bourjos, with Mike Trout on the way to play that position in Anaheim. But the Nationals could also move Jayson Werth to center and sign a right fielder. It now appears that Yoenis Cespedes is not in their plans and they have cooled on B.J. Upton. Lannan, who went 10-13 last year with a 3.70 ERA and a (high) 1.462 WHIP, would be a good option for a team like Boston, but the Red Sox don’t seem to have the center fielder to give back, especially with Ryan Kalish unable to play until June. “It doesn’t have to be a center fielder,’’ said one major league source. “They don’t have to get a center fielder in that deal as long as they get a center fielder some other way. The Red Sox make a lot of sense.’’
Again, with emphasis added:
There is a lot of speculation that the Nationals will deal him to the Angels for center fielder Peter Bourjos…
Coors Field and BABIP
This morning, the Rockies traded away Jason Hammel, a starter who has posted relatively high BABIPs over most of his career. While his .280 BABIP last year doesn’t look so bad, the distribution of when those hits came (.272 BABIP with bases empty, .291 BABIP with men on, .300 with RISP) – along with the .327 overall mark he posted in the prior two seasons – led to the Rockies souring on his abilities and shifting him to the bullpen in August. Hammel was just the latest in a string of pitchers who have fallen out of favor with the Rockies due to high BABIPs, as the team traded away Ubaldo Jimenez and Felipe Paulino during stretches of allowing hits last year, and had decided not to bring back Jeff Francis last winter due to his proclivity for giving up base hits.
Eventually, though, the Rockies are going to have to realize that it’s not the pitchers, it’s the park. Here are the BABIPs for all pitchers at Coors Field for each of the last 10 years, and where that ranks relative to the other parks in that specific year.