Since September 1st, 2009, Jose Bautista has played 152 games and received 647 plate appearances. That’s one season’s worth of playing time. In those 152 games, he has launched 50 home runs. It’s time to stop wondering when he’s going to go back to the hitter he used to be. He’s not going to. He has taken a step forward.

I’m not saying he’s going to keep hitting home runs at this pace, which is an unrealistic assumption even for the game’s premier power hitters. But we should recognize that Bautista has made changes to his offensive approach, and not assume that he’s simply getting lucky with balls flying over the wall.

Here are his flyball rates over the last three years.

2008 – 38.8%
2009 – 42.1%
2010 – 53.6%

You don’t have to look too hard to spot the pattern. Bautista has made a conscious decision to adjust his swing to gain more loft. In fact, if you saw the swing he took on his second home run last night – which was aided by some anger about being thrown out earlier – you can see exactly why Bautista is no longer hitting the ball on the ground.

He has a pronounced uppercut and he swings about as hard as humanly possible. These are not cheap home runs he’s hitting. Take a look at his home run charts from Hit Tracker.

There are a couple of squeakers on there, but for the most part, he’s been hitting bombs like the two he drilled last night. If we look at his HR/FB rate, you can see that his frequency of getting balls to clear the wall isn’t that unusual: 21.5 percent of his flyballs have left the park this year, which still ranks him behind Joey Votto (25.7%), Carlos Pena (23.7%), and Adam Dunn (21.7%). Over the past three years, five players have averaged a HR/FB rate of 21.5% or better, which isn’t exactly uncharted territory.

Bautista will likely never have a year like this again, but there’s no reason to think he’s going to revert back to the version we saw before last September. He has made changes that can stick, even if not quite to this degree, and I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Bautista hit 30 to 40 home runs each of the next several years.

A few months ago, I wrote about my experience watching MLB.tv on the PS3, and there seemed to be a pretty decent amount of interest in the subject. Today, I’m going to review a piece of technology that is not quite as baseball specific, but that we here at FanGraphs use everyday, and is probably something that anyone involved in cooperative writing projects should probably be aware of: Yammer.

What is Yammer? Their tagline refers to themselves as “the private social network for your business,” which is a pretty decent – if still vague and buzzworded – description of what the product does. I’d describe it more as a hybrid version of Facebook and Twitter to help assist in collaboration with your coworkers.

At its heart it’s a user interface that will be familiar to pretty much anyone who uses the internet nowadays. It is centered around a feed of messages from users you are connected to, which essentially acts as a place to share quick bits of information with numerous people without sending out an email. Earlier this year, we basically replaced our internal author mailing list with Yammer, and now use it to claim topics and discuss ideas for the site.

For this purpose, it’s great. No one really liked having their inbox bombarded with messages from R.J. telling us which Rays bench player he was going to write about, so now he just puts that update into Yammer, and we can all find out without that message clogging up our email. This single function has made the move entirely worthwhile, and it’s been a large asset in helping spur communication between our writers. That isn’t the only functionality they offer, however. It also offers the ability to upload files to be shared within the group, create profile pages for individual users with contact information (clearing up your bulky address book), build an organizational chart, and send private messages to specific users, though for various reasons, we don’t really make full use of many of those additional features.

Yammer offers access in three ways – through web login, a desktop application, and mobile apps. I have all three, but generally have found that I stick mostly to the web login. The desktop app is okay, but I hate having cluttered applications overrunning my screen, and I’ve found that it’s just too much for me to have both it and TweetDeck notifying me of new messages every few minutes. The mobile app has potential, but also has a lot of problems. It’s great to be able to access the feed from my phone, and push notifications are less intrusive than on the desktop application, but the software is simply riddled with bugs.

Trying to send a message through the Yammer iPhone app is hit or miss, with more misses than hits, honestly. It crashes more than any other app I have ever used, and repeatedly crashes when trying to submit a new message to the stream. This is obviously frustrating, and Yammer has released numerous updates to fix the issues, though they keep creating new problems with each update. The most recent update has significantly reduced crashing, but now also makes it so that reading the new messages in your feed does not eliminate the app’s suggestion that you have new messages. I see that there are two new messages to read, fire up the app, read them, and close it out, and yet, I still have two new messages.

I’d say this is a simple fix that I’m sure they’ll resolve soon, but having updated the app so many times, I’m now just wondering what else they’ll break in the process of fixing that issue. I’d love to use the iPhone app more often, but right now, it’s just not reliable enough, so I mostly stick to the web portal. The mobile app isn’t useless, as I still use it to read what others are talking about, but for updating my own status, I rarely attempt that anymore.

If you’re part of a company that is using an internal mailing list and you get annoyed at how many messages you find taking up your email, Yammer could be a great solution for that issue. It is great at accomplishing that one task. It is less great at everything else, and it probably won’t change your life, but it might make it somewhat easier to communicate with coworkers. For that reason, I give it a thumbs up. If they want the second thumb, they need to permanently fix their iPhone app.

If you go to the leaderboard, click on the advanced tab and set minimum plate appearances to 150, you’ll see something rather shocking, especially if you haven’t been paying attention to the Royals this year.

Justin Morneau, .447 wOBA
Miguel Cabrera, .446 wOBA
Josh Hamilton, .445 wOBA
Joey Votto, .435 wOBA
Wilson Betemit, .431 wOBA

Four guys who have played like MVPs this season… and a cast-off minor league free agent who only got called up from Triple-A at the end of May. Which of these is not like the other?

Betemit has been a monster for the Royals since joining the team, hitting .346/.425/.577 in 179 plate appearances. Small sample or not, it’s an impressive batting line. He’s walking and hitting for power, and as a former top prospect, it’s not unthinkable that he’s finally figuring out how to translate his tools into major league skills.

But his overall batting line is also inflated by a fluky .426 batting average on balls in play, which won’t last. Not that anyone thought Betemit was a true talent .346 hitter anyway. The secondary skills are nice, but he strikes out too much to hit for a high average, which is why ZiPS projects him as a .270/.333/.429 guy going forward.

The updated numbers makes him a roughly average hitter, maybe a tick better, which sounds about right for a guy with his skillset. He won’t keep hitting like this, but he’s still a useful player, even with his cover-your-eyes defense around the infield.

To me, however, the most interesting thing about the Betemit story is his potential arbitration case this winter. He’s been around so much that he had accumulated 4 years and 147 days of service before the season, so his time on the Royals roster this year will push him over the five year mark, meaning he’ll be arbitration eligible for the last time. And, given his performance, he’ll want a pretty decent raise.

Since he signed a minor league contract with the Royals during the off-season, Betemit is making the league minimum this year and the most money he’s ever made was the $1.3 million that the White Sox paid him last year. Even with his offensive performance, the fact that he’s only played a part-time role will limit who his agents can point to as comparable players, and he’s unlikely to file for more than $3 million.

The scnario puts the Royals in an interesting situation. He’s been a revelation for them this year, but even they know he won’t keep hitting like this. Further he’s still a brutal defender. The Royals also realize they have Mike Moustakas down in Triple-A. Moustakas is not quite big league ready, but there are reasons to think he could take the third base job next year.

For their situation, paying him a few million dollars in 2010 could easily just be a waste of cash. But non-tendering a guy who is coming off a year like Betemit’s seems untenable. They could try and trade him, but given his previous travels and likely raise, it’s unclear how many teams would actually want to give up anything for him.

It is feasible that Betemit could actually be playing himself out of a job. If he finishes the year with offensive numbers that resemble his current line, he might be too expensive for KC, and yet, his defensive problems and general lack of performance before this year could keep his trade value at a minimum.

It might just be in everyone’s best interests if he finishes the year in a slump. Take some of the shine off of his numbers and he’ll only be able to ask for a modest raise in arbitration, allowing it to make sense for KC to keep him around. Otherwise, they may have to consider non-tendering a guy coming off a career year.

The good folks over at Baseball America have released their annual survey of MLB Managers in regards to which players have the “Best Tools” in Major League Baseball. This is clearly a subjective exercise, but it’s still fun to look at and see what the guys running teams from the dugout think.

A lot of the picks are as expected. Albert Pujols is the National League’s best hitter? Yup. Cliff Lee is the best pitcher in the American League? Few would argue that point. Evan Longoria and Ryan Zimmerman grade out as the two best defenders at third base in their respective leagues? UZR thinks so, too.

However, there are a few picks on there that are… curious. I thought it’d be interesting to take a look at some of the selections that might make you raise your eyebrows, and then suggest an alternative answer to the question.

Best Fastball, AL – Justin Verlander

Hardest fastball among starting pitchers? Sure. But that’s not really the question, and despite the velocity, Verlander’s fastball isn’t all its cracked up to be. Our pitch type linear weights have Verlander’s fastball worth 43.1 runs above average over his career, or about 0.4 runs per 100 pitches thrown. That’s less than either his curveball or his change-up, which are the pitches he actually gets hitters out with. Yes, his fastball sets up those other pitches, but some guys have fastballs so good that they can get guys out on their own.

Take Matt Thornton, for instance (and yes, relievers are eligible – notice that Daniel Bard and Neftali Feliz are #2 and #3 in the category). His fastball has been worth +49.6 runs in his Major League career, a half dozen runs better than Verlander’s mark. That is despite throwing 10,000 fewer total pitches than Verlander and his fastball being a pitch he relies on almost exclusively.

Thornton has thrown 83 percent fastballs in his career, and is at 91 percent this year. Despite the predictability, hitters still can’t touch him, and he’s become the game’s premier left-handed reliever. It’s even thrown at the same velocity as Verlander’s, so we can’t argue his case in that area.

Verlander has a good fastball. Thornton, though, has the best fastball in the American League.

Best Change-up, National League: Johan Santana

Santana has a fantastic change-up, no question. He’s a worthy contender for the top spot. But there’s one that stands out above the rest in baseball in terms of movement and ability to make hitters look ridiculous, and it belongs to Tim Lincecum.

To be fair, managers put him in a tie for second with Cole Hamels, so they clearly like his change-up as well. But I’m not sure they like it enough. For fun, take a look at Lincecum’s pitch selection in any two strike count:

0-2: 40% change-ups
1-2: 50% change-ups
2-2: 51% change-ups
3-2: 45% change-ups

Want to know why Lincecum is still running sky high strikeout rates despite losing his fastball? Because he puts hitters away with the nasty change-up, and that pitch has only gotten better over the years. He still throws it at 84 MPH, and while it appears to have fastball properties, it falls off the table while the hitter is swinging over the top.

Quantified, the pitch type linear weights suggest that Lincecum’s change-up last year alone was worth more than Santana’s over the last three years combined. In his prime with Minnesota, Santana’s change was the best in the game. Now, though, its just one of the best, and it takes a back seat to the one from the wiry kid in San Francisco.

Best Defensive Outfielder, AL, second place – Torii Hunter

Ahh, reputations. They don’t die easily, even when the player himself says “yeah, I’m not that good anymore, and I should move to right field now.” Managers just love them some Torii Hunter. I won’t bother going into much detail here, because, well, I think everyone realizes that Hunter hasn’t been a good defensive outfielder for quite a while now.

In 2006, Anibal Sanchez burst on the scene as a 22-year-old, throwing a no-hitter and posting a 2.83 ERA in his rookie season, though his xFIP was two runs higher than his ERA. He never really had the chance to regress, though, as he went down with a shoulder strain in 2007 that was eventually revealed to be a torn labrum. Surgery and recurrences of arm problems knocked him out for most of the 2008 and the first half of the 2009 season, though he pitched pretty decently to finish the season.

This year, Sanchez came into camp 30 pounds lighter and determined to stay healthy. His first six starts were pretty mediocre, however, as he continued to struggle with his command and was only running a 5.35 K/9.

But as the season has gone on, Sanchez has only gotten stronger, as you can see in his velocity chart below.

Velocity, however, isn’t the only place he’s showing improvement. Over his last five starts, Sanchez has racked up 36 strikeouts in 32 innings, giving him a 10.13 K/9 that is ninth best in baseball over the last 30 days, and puts him in a virtual tie with Roy Halladay, Ubaldo Jimenez, and Ricky Nolasco. As his stuff has ticked up, so has his ability to blow hitters away, and the version of Sanchez taking the mound for the Marlins right now is the best we’ve ever seen him.

Josh Johnson generates most of the headlines, but he’s got some pretty good company in that Florida rotation. A healthy Sanchez, and one with a fastball that is trending up, is a nice addition to the Marlins core.

In yesterday’s chat, I was asked if Jim Thome was the best free agent signing any team made this winter. I’ve actually seen this idea pushed forward several times of late, as he’s continued to pound the baseball and help propel the Twins into first place. Make no mistake, Thome is having an excellent season, running a .412 wOBA that is the seventh highest in baseball among players with at least 250 plate appearances.

But while Thome has been a bargain for the Twins after signing for just $1.5 million this winter, he’s not the best signing of last winter. The contenders for that award:

Colby Lewis: 2 year, $5 million, +3.4 WAR

The Rangers took a small gamble on his success in Japan translating back across the ocean and have hit the jackpot for doing so, as Lewis has been a high quality starting pitcher while earning a paltry $1.75 million this year. Not only do they have his services next year on the cheap as well, but they hold a $3.25 million option for 2012, which will almost certainly be exercised as long as he stays healthy. By the time this contract is over, the Rangers will probably have gotten three years of Lewis’ pitching for a grand total of about $8 million, or less than what Ben Sheets got for 2010 alone.

Kelly Johnson: 1 year, $2.3 million, +4.4 WAR

The Diamondbacks were beneficiaries of the Braves decision to non-tender Johnson rather than go to arbitration with him a second time. Even though they guaranteed him only one year, they still hold his rights for 2011, as he’s arbitration eligible for the final time. He’ll get a big raise after a monster season, but his paycheck will still be far less than what he’d get as a free agent. A no risk move that has paid off big time this year and will continue to provide value again next year.

Aubrey Huff: 1 year, $3 million, +4.4 WAR

One of the main reasons the Giants are still in contention in the NL West, Huff has basically replicated his 2008 season, playing everyday and providing significant offensive value. The Giants got their cleanup hitter for a fraction of what other first baseman were signing for, and have to be thrilled that they missed out on giving Adam LaRoche a multi-year deal.

Adrian Beltre: 1 year, $10 million, +5.7 WAR

The best performer from last winter’s crop, Beltre has been the Red Sox’ best player. His defense is as good as ever, but now he’s hitting the ball well again and easily earning his salary. While he’s more expensive than the rest of the guys on this list, he’s also packing a lot of value into one roster spot, and for a team trying to maximize their wins, that offers a lot of advantages. The Red Sox probably now wish that they could have gotten a team option for 2011 rather than giving Beltre an opt-out, because he’s going to get a big raise this winter.

Alex Gonzalez: 1 year, $2.8 million, +2.9 WAR

It’s hard to imagine this signing working out any better for the Blue Jays. They got a monster April from their shortstop, where he posted a .403 wOBA, and then dumped him a few months later for a better, younger player at the same position in Yunel Escobar. While Gonzalez didn’t provide as much value on the field as some other free agents, he established enough value early in the season to get used as a trade chip in the summer, bringing back a return that could pay off for years to come.

Of these five, I think Lewis still stands out as the best of the bunch. The Rangers solidified their rotation without spending any real money, and they can look forward to two more bargain basement seasons still to come. Thome has had a great year, but there’s no way the Rangers would rather have him than their #2 starter.

A few weeks ago, I was asked the popular barstool argument question: if you could start a franchise with just one player – with contracts and dollars being irrelevant – who would it be? I’d guess that a lot of us have had that conversation more than once. It’s a fun topic to talk about.

There are a few names that naturally get mentioned early on. Joe Mauer, Evan Longoria, and Hanley Ramirez are popular choices because they’re established stars and still in the earlier stages of their careers. Albert Pujols and Chase Utley get nominated for their sheer greatness, even though they’re already past their primes. Miguel Cabrera draws a mention from people who want to build around a premier young hitter. And then you’ll have the guy who likes pitching and brings up Tim Lincecum, Josh Johnson, Jon Lester, or Felix Hernandez.

There’s one guy that never gets brought up, though, who might just be the best answer of them all: Ryan Zimmerman. He shares the spotlight with Adam Dunn and Stephen Strasburg in Washington, but given how good he has become at such a young age, his star should shine the brightest.

Last year, Zimmerman had his breakout season, putting up a +6.6 win season that ranked as the ninth best in baseball. This year, he’s followed it up with a +6.0 win season so far, ranking second. Since the beginning of the 2009 season, only Albert Pujols has posted a better WAR than Zimmerman. He has become a complete all-around player, adding patience and power to an already impressive skillset.

Because he came up at an early age and was just a good hitter rather than a great one out of the gates, his reputation has seemingly not yet caught up with his abilities. However, let’s just throw this out there:

Rest-of-season ZiPS projections:

Zimmerman: .289/.366/.526, .388 wOBA
Longoria: .276/.360/.519, .385 wOBA
Ramirez: .307/.384/.509, .393 wOBA

Those are basically an estimate of true talent level, and it sees no discernible differences between the three as hitters. While the other two have significantly better career slash lines, Zimmerman’s performance over his last 1,100 plate appearances has been better than either of the other two.

Defensively, he and Longoria couldn’t be more similar, as they are the two premier young defensive third baseman in the game. Which one you like more is basically a matter of preference – they’re both outstanding. Ramirez does not rate out nearly as well, but of course he’s playing a more difficult position and being compared to better defenders overall. I would still place him a bit behind both of the third baseman in defensive value, but the gap isn’t as large as simply comparing their UZRs would suggest.

Longoria turns 25 in October, while Zimmerman turns 26 a couple of weeks prior to that. Ramirez turns 27 in December. Ramirez has a bit better offensive track record but is the oldest and worst defender of the trio. Longoria is the youngest, but his best season at the plate is not as good as the best season of either of the other two.

It is splitting hairs to pick between them, but gun to my head, I think I’d take Washington’s third baseman. Right now, he’s the perfect blend, combining Ramirez’s offense with Longoria’s defense into one unbelievably good package.

If his teammates were more talented, he’d be have a strong case for the NL MVP right now. Zimmerman has truly become of the game’s great young players, and the guy I’d point to if I could only take one player to begin a franchise.

Okay, wrapping things up.

So what I’m getting at is that the only way to have a satisfying conversation about this sort of thing is to develop some objective standards and quantifiable measurements for these rankings.

This was one of the big complaints about the series from many people – too much opinion, not enough quantification. So, next year, we’ll do things differently. We’ll be far more clear about the respective ratings for each area and the weights that are given to those strengths and weaknesses. There will always be subjectivity in the rankings, of course, since we’re dealing with perceptions of things, but I agree that we can do a better job of explaining things. We’ll try to make them more transparent next year.

You show no acknowledgement for your ranking, if anything you seem more entrenched in your view, when tons of reasonable people have i think made some decisive points in your direction.

That was not at all the intention of this little project. If that’s how it has come across, I’m sorry. I hoped that we could actually have a conversation about the thoughts that went into the ranking, getting beyond basic assumptions of bias and discussing the merits (or lack thereof) of the logic that I tried to employ. Based on the responses, it looks like it wasn’t all that successful. That’s somewhat disappointing, but understandable I guess.

But, it seems like most people aren’t really interested in talking about the sausage making process. They just want an apology or an admission of error. So, this is for all of you who fall into that category.

You were right. I was wrong. The Mariners have had a bad year. In retrospect, I shouldn’t have ranked them as highly.

There you go. Tomorrow – back to baseball.