Looking at the BA Best Tools Survey
The good folks over at Baseball America have released their annual survey of MLB Managers in regards to which players have the “Best Tools” in Major League Baseball. This is clearly a subjective exercise, but it’s still fun to look at and see what the guys running teams from the dugout think.
A lot of the picks are as expected. Albert Pujols is the National League’s best hitter? Yup. Cliff Lee is the best pitcher in the American League? Few would argue that point. Evan Longoria and Ryan Zimmerman grade out as the two best defenders at third base in their respective leagues? UZR thinks so, too.
However, there are a few picks on there that are… curious. I thought it’d be interesting to take a look at some of the selections that might make you raise your eyebrows, and then suggest an alternative answer to the question.
Best Fastball, AL – Justin Verlander
Hardest fastball among starting pitchers? Sure. But that’s not really the question, and despite the velocity, Verlander’s fastball isn’t all its cracked up to be. Our pitch type linear weights have Verlander’s fastball worth 43.1 runs above average over his career, or about 0.4 runs per 100 pitches thrown. That’s less than either his curveball or his change-up, which are the pitches he actually gets hitters out with. Yes, his fastball sets up those other pitches, but some guys have fastballs so good that they can get guys out on their own.
Take Matt Thornton, for instance (and yes, relievers are eligible – notice that Daniel Bard and Neftali Feliz are #2 and #3 in the category). His fastball has been worth +49.6 runs in his Major League career, a half dozen runs better than Verlander’s mark. That is despite throwing 10,000 fewer total pitches than Verlander and his fastball being a pitch he relies on almost exclusively.
Thornton has thrown 83 percent fastballs in his career, and is at 91 percent this year. Despite the predictability, hitters still can’t touch him, and he’s become the game’s premier left-handed reliever. It’s even thrown at the same velocity as Verlander’s, so we can’t argue his case in that area.
Verlander has a good fastball. Thornton, though, has the best fastball in the American League.
Best Change-up, National League: Johan Santana
Santana has a fantastic change-up, no question. He’s a worthy contender for the top spot. But there’s one that stands out above the rest in baseball in terms of movement and ability to make hitters look ridiculous, and it belongs to Tim Lincecum.
To be fair, managers put him in a tie for second with Cole Hamels, so they clearly like his change-up as well. But I’m not sure they like it enough. For fun, take a look at Lincecum’s pitch selection in any two strike count:
0-2: 40% change-ups
1-2: 50% change-ups
2-2: 51% change-ups
3-2: 45% change-ups
Want to know why Lincecum is still running sky high strikeout rates despite losing his fastball? Because he puts hitters away with the nasty change-up, and that pitch has only gotten better over the years. He still throws it at 84 MPH, and while it appears to have fastball properties, it falls off the table while the hitter is swinging over the top.
Quantified, the pitch type linear weights suggest that Lincecum’s change-up last year alone was worth more than Santana’s over the last three years combined. In his prime with Minnesota, Santana’s change was the best in the game. Now, though, its just one of the best, and it takes a back seat to the one from the wiry kid in San Francisco.
Best Defensive Outfielder, AL, second place – Torii Hunter
Ahh, reputations. They don’t die easily, even when the player himself says “yeah, I’m not that good anymore, and I should move to right field now.” Managers just love them some Torii Hunter. I won’t bother going into much detail here, because, well, I think everyone realizes that Hunter hasn’t been a good defensive outfielder for quite a while now.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
Derek Jeter as 3rd best SS seems based on reputation too.
Religious dogma is a better explanation.
And I’m a Yankee fan. And I still think the world of Jeter. But 3rd best defensive shortstop? Hoo, what a load.
My personal favorite is Brian McCann as the second best defensive catcher in the NL. I think that is a sign of a majority of those surveyed being unable to identify any other NL catchers besides McCann and Molina.
He was actually #11 in baseball according to the last BtB catcher defense rankings (though it was over 6 weeks ago). He’s nowhere near as bad as most people seem to think. He throws out over 30% of base stealers and is second in the league in number of runners caught stealing. Because holds guys below the break even rate and so many guys run he actually gets a good bit of value there. In addition, he’s very good at blocking pitches and limiting PB and WP.
He’s made vast steps forward at throwing runners out this year-I suspect he’s been working with David Ross. Managers clearly haven’t grasped that, though, because they still show plenty of willingness to run on him. So I can’t give them a ton of credit for recognizing his improvement in that area since they’re still trying to take advantage of his reputation at being poor in that area.
If we’re going to talk about pitch values, we should probably mention Hudson in the best fastball category. Easily the highest total value and per pitch value of any fastball in either league. I guess you could make the argument that we’re talking about more than one pitch with Hudson’s fastball, but its just been insane this year. Its the main reason he has the highest GB rate in the league and the best LD rate of the fangraphs batted ball era.
…and if Matt Thornton were starting games would he be throwing his fastball 80-90% of the time?
Yeah… I don’t think it’s fair to compare a bullpen fastball to a starting rotation fastball. Phil Hughes found 3 MPH on his fastball in the bullpen. Heck, M Rivera still throws a cutter 80% of the time. You can’t compare a guy who goes out there for 10-20 pitches to a guy who has to go through a lineup 3 times. What might Verlander’s fastball look like coming out of the pen?
Yep, that is the biggest whiff in this entire article. Relieving and starting are definitely two different animals.
What about Morneau and to lesser extent Kotchman as defensive 1st basemen? Kotchman probably gets penalized for being one dimensional, but Morneau seems deserving.
Morneau is a much better defensive first baseman than most give him credit for. He has improved dramatically over the last few years. Definitely deserving of this discussion.
It is just too bad that Teixeira’s magical glove has hindered that from happening…and in Kotchman’s case as well.
I think a number of these choices were based on something already mentioned in this post: reputation.
Once the voters get passed that, they will list these things properly.
This isn’t directly related to this post, but it’s something that I’ve believed for awhile now and it came up.
In basketball, the statistically-inclined depend a lot on usage rate (the relative number of possessions a particular player is responsible for offensively) and offensive rating (a measure of how efficiently that player produces points on those possessions). It’s understood that, as one takes on more possessions, he will become less efficient. Essentially, adding three shots a game means that you are taking three shots that you didn’t feel comfortable taking before – and, therefore, those added shots are the three most difficult shots you take each game.
I bring this up because I feel like there’s a huge similarity (without much understanding) in the realm of pitch-type linear weights. If I throw one eephus pitch all season, for example, in all likelihood the hitter will just stare at it, regardless of whether it’s a strike or not. If it’s a good enough pitch that I can put it over, that one time it will be overwhelmingly effective. But if I start throwing this pitch 5 percent of the time, hitters will be more prepared for it, and it will be less effective. If I throw the eephus 75 percent of the time, I’m probably playing slow-pitch softball.
Here’s my point: That pitch is still exactly as effective. It’s not a good enough pitch to throw 75 percent of the time, but it’s good enough to throw once or twice a year. But pitch-type linear weights will present it as having an excellent value per-pitch if I throw it rarely, and a terrible value if I throw it often. Similarly, Steve Kerr has the highest career offensive rating of any NBA player, but only used 10 percent of his team’s possessions while he was on the floor. Basketball analysts aren’t fooled into thinking that Kerr’s 122 on 10 percent of possessions is more impressive than Jordan’s 118 on 33 percent.
I think that, if someone studied this more closely, they’d find that this works the same way with more normal pitch types and more normal pitch distributions (and Dave actually touched on this when he mentioned Thornton’s predictability making his fastball values more impressive). Basketball’s stolen a ton from baseball analysis over the years, but I think, for once, it can teach baseball something.
Would you rather have …
80% of $20 or 50% of $100.
It’s all context.
Sometimes our view of baseball stats is too narrow.
I didn’t make this clear, but “122” means 1.22 points per possession and “118” means 1.18 points per possession. Sorry for the confusion.
Another call that I think is by far way off mark is best defensive SS. If just looking at UZR you’d see that Andrus is 3rd in the AL (Not counting Alex Gonzalez because he’s with the Braves now) and I don’t even need the mention Aybar or Jeter. The best defnsive SS in the AL and all of baseball has been far and away Alexei Ramirez. He’s posting a 12.4 UZR! The second closest is Cliff Pennington at 3.9! Sure Jeter only has 5 erros, but his range doesn’t even come close to Alexei’s. On top of that Alexei has a plus plus arm which allows him make incredible throws helping him rack up those assits. The numbers speak for themselves. If that’s not good enough for you, let the eye test be your judgement. You’ll see this kid down right nasty at shortstop!
Your critique of Verlander’s fastball may not be appropriate. You can certainly argue from a results standpoint it isn’t the best, but that can have a lot to do with usage. It’s like having the best car with a so-so driver so the results are mediocre. Plenty of guys get better results with lesser FBs, but that doesn’t mean they wouldn’t trade in a second.
Of course this is true. And of course David Cameron fails to see this. You see, if he has the pitch-type linear weights here he can just look that up–no thinking involved.
Results do not equal talent. Competent saberists constantly preach this concept. Why it isn’t applied here I don’t know.
Yeah, strange because stuff and results VERY often don’t correlate. Now, Thornton has a great FB and all, but like you said pointing to a single statistic makes little sense here. Funny, the stat crazy community says the purely old school guys are too dense, but in reality a lot of them can be just as dense.
Baseball people know what they are talking about at least when discussing Verlander’s fastball. Make him a 1-inning reliever and he would be throwing at peak Strasburg-levels every pitch. The reason his other pitches are so effective is that hitters have to gear up for his fastball. Without that fastball, Verlander is a very average starter. It is a little straighter than a lot of other fastballs though, so if he leaves it down it occasionally gets hit. His pitching style is really a throwback where he needs to throw high heat to get batters out.
The only reason Prado was listed as the second best defensive second basemen was because of his offensive season. Managers simply don’t watch the other players enough to be accurate judges.
“Managers simply don’t watch the other players enough to be accurate judges.”
See ‘hubris.’
Perhaps you should see hubris:
excessive pride or self-confidence; arrogance.
How is it that managers not watching other 2nd basemen close enough to see that they are better defensively would be because of hubris?
How is it that internet dude assuming he is in a better position to tell who is a better second baseman than a group of managers–who have spent their entire adult lives watching professional baseball from close range–isn’t the very definition of hubris?
Managers don’t watch enough baseball? Please.
NotDave-maybe it’s hubris, or maybe it’s belief in the metrics (DRS and UZR), neither of which believe that Martin Prado is the second best defensive 2B in the National League. DRS has him in a tie for 5th-perhaps ironically, with Kelly Johnson-while UZR thinks he’s below average. The man beneath him, Chase Utley, deserves to recognized as the best in that regard easily.
“who have spent their entire adult lives watching professional baseball from close range–isn’t the very definition of hubris?”
You do realize most managers don’t have time to look up hours of footage on every player in baseball, right? Even the most prepared manager will probably only know extensive information on his own players and people in his own division. That is what scouts are for.
I would poop on your dick if I could. I really would.
Well, NotDave, you are very wrong for several reasons.
Reason one why Managers are awful choices to vote on this kind of thing, have you ever watched a game from a major league dugout? In many cases a manager can only see 2-3 of the players on the field. They literally can’t see enough of the action to make competent decisions about who the best fielders are.
Problem two has to do with the unbalanced schedule and how a manager will see certain fielders way more frequently than others. The combination of these two things makes managers an awful choice.
“in many cases a manager can only see 2-3 of the players on the field”
Huh?
I know Cano’s been much better this year, but the best 2B in the AL? I think it’s a bit early to say that.
Pitch type linear weights don’t measure how “good” a pitch is, just how effective it is. Mariano’s cutter is not the most effective, but it’s probably the best simply because of how it’s used
One thing I found very interesting- Best Reliever NL
Heath Bell
Brian Wilson
Jonathan Broxton
Managers really don’t enjoy being down after 8 when they’re on the West coast.
I do find it interesting that they say Halladay has the best NL slider, considering he doesn’t throw one. What pitcher are they calling a slider?
Almost certainly his “curveball”. He throws it slower so it gets labeled a curve, but it probably is more slurvy if not a slider based on the movement. For reference, only -1.3 inches vertical movement on it which is much more consistent with a slider.
Yeah that was … interesting…
Lot of weird stuff going on in that survey – Jaime Garcia has the 2nd best curveball in the NL? Better than Carpenter, Halladay, and Oswalt? And even though it seems like they’re calling Halladay’s curveball a slider, still, what?
Aren’t the pitch values more like RE24 than wOBA? What I mean is that if I understand pitch values correctly, they do not (or cannot perhaps) separate how good the pitch is from the sequencing of the pitch. Say, for example, Tim Lincecum’s changeup. Now, because of when/how he throws it, it’s perhaps the sickest pitch in baseball. However, if he threw it the same percentage of the time as Mariano’s cutter or Ubaldo’s or Strasburg’s fastballs, Lincecum’s changeup would probably not have the same effectiveness and pitch value. And if PV’s are more like RE24, then are we not really measuring the “true-talent” of the pitch but rather how well the pitch does in context?
I hope this makes sense.
Good article, nitwit. It’s much easier to pick apart a few bad choices than to productively discuss the bulk of the content. You’re awful.
Yeah, good idea. Let’s make an article where all the author does is agree with everything. That sounds really important, interesting, and fun to read. I’ll start:
Title: BA Lists Heyward at #1, Strasburg as #2
Content:
I agree!
…
You’re right! That is an interesting article that was totally worth our time! You should be a writer!
Hey, let’s not act like some of the analysis around here is all that deep or anything.
Lots of times it’s just looking at a single metric and putting them in order. Woo. This article is one of those.
Other articles examine ….
[1] High BABIP = he’s lucky, he’ll regress.
[2] ERA<FIP = he's lucky
[3] Contract is greater than 4.5M/WAR = overpay (regardless of WAR of the player)
Some of the analysis here is ridiculously incomplete or needlessly simple.
The reason for that is simple … looking at stats and comparing them to career norms, league average, other players, etc is simple. My 9yo son can (and does) do it. The stats practically analyze themselves in that regard. 3.90 FIP is better than a 4.13 FIP. Obvious.
But, what is lacking is the "what causes that?" analysis. Here at FG, most often it's just "good or bad luck", and that's as far as one looks. No one looks at spray charts, results from contact in different zones, etc. The deepest anyone gets is looking at GB/FB rates, and O, Z swing %. We look at the same old things, and we're stuck getting the same ol conclusions.
It could also be that we are at a point where advanced analysis is limited by the data we are collected or how we are analyzing.
I enjoy the site, enjoy the articles, love the readers' comments … but there are plenty of times when the analysis here at FG is on the elementary level.
Now, the other reason for that is that strong analysis takes a lot of time and resources, and well, not many folks have a lot of both. So, we get quick-hitter analysis articles that, by default, must be short, sweet, and simple. What's lacking in depth is made up for in quantity. People want something to read and then comment on it, not necessarily something very lengthy, where they could learn something in depth and meaningful.
How is this relevant to what I wrote?
torii hunter is the most over-rated outfielder defensively since dwight evans and his Not so “legendary” throws, up the third base line. At least now a days the defensive metrics can pick hunter’s lack of range apart. He’s a stiff.
Awesome article! thoroughly enjoyed.
” Evan Longoria and Ryan Zimmerman grade out as the two best defenders at third base in their respective leagues? UZR thinks so, too. ”
You must be looking at a different UZR than I am. The UZR on fangraphs seems to think Adrian Beltre is better defensively than Evan Longoria.
Ideally, it is a good idea not to use single season UZR data. Over the past 3 years, Longoria has been better, and the difference of 1 run is not enough to warrant assuming otherwise.
Could you please post exactly where its proven that 3 seasons of UZR is more indicative than 1? I’ve never seen that proven, and in fact, I’ve seen significant research showing that it doesn’t correlate any more significantly once you get past 900 innings.
So please, enlighten me.
Unless you just want to continue being an arrogant ass.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-fangraphs-uzr-primer/#12
You’re welcome. Also, you can argue that you disagree with UZR in its entirety, and that’s okay, or you can argue that the writer should be looking at one year instead of three years, and that’s okay too, but one year is not a large enough sample and the authors on this site and all others don’t use one year of UZR as a measure of true talent unless it’s all they have available and matches scouting beliefs.
By the way, congratulations on seeing research you don’t link to. I saw research that you’re wrong again. You’ve been enlightened.
Also, I’d advise you that, in general, if you don’t know how to use UZR correctly, you probably shouldn’t be presenting it in such an arrogant manner.
“Thornton has thrown 83 percent fastballs in his career, and is at 91 percent this year. Despite the predictability, hitters still can’t touch him, and he’s become the game’s premier left-handed reliever.”
Just because this may be all I’ve got with how crappy my team is now, but I would say Kuo is a better left handed reliever than Thornton overall. Don’t take Kuo being the best away from me, damnit!
Baseball America shouldn’t have even put this article on its site. Wainwright isn’t somehow better than Jimenez or Josh Johnson? Jeter isn’t even a top 5 defensive shortstop, but is clutch obviously in playoff games when robbing someone of a hit. The best outfielders are a joke, and how can Broxton be considered one of the best 3 closers in the NL? Wasn’t he demoted recently? Where the F is Billy Wagner?
As for Cameron to complain about Verlander being considered the pitcher with the best fastball is pretty stupid considering you mentioned closers, and Billy Wagner throws FAR harder than Josh Johnson in the N.L.
Oh, and Cliff Lee has now been shelled 4 out of 9 games in the AL for the Rangers. He’s been shelled twice by the Orioles in a pennant race, and found a way of blowing a lead, getting shelled, and losing to the easiest team for pitchers to throw a no-hitter against. And yes, I mean the Rays… Buchholz, Hernandez, and a few other guys could have been named best pitcher in the A.L. If Lee were still in the National League, he’d be about 7th best pitcher.
And as others have stated, Verlander would average about 98 mph if he were a closer. The dude threw a 102 mph fastball in the ninth inning of a no-hitter…
“Billy Wagner throws FAR harder than Josh Johnson in the N.L”
Uh, think again!
1 mph.
“Billy Wagner throws FAR harder than Josh Johnson in the N.L.”
“Verlander would average about 98 mph if he were a closer.”
talk about cherry-picking arguments…