Free Agent Signings That Worked
In yesterday’s chat, I was asked if Jim Thome was the best free agent signing any team made this winter. I’ve actually seen this idea pushed forward several times of late, as he’s continued to pound the baseball and help propel the Twins into first place. Make no mistake, Thome is having an excellent season, running a .412 wOBA that is the seventh highest in baseball among players with at least 250 plate appearances.
But while Thome has been a bargain for the Twins after signing for just $1.5 million this winter, he’s not the best signing of last winter. The contenders for that award:
Colby Lewis: 2 year, $5 million, +3.4 WAR
The Rangers took a small gamble on his success in Japan translating back across the ocean and have hit the jackpot for doing so, as Lewis has been a high quality starting pitcher while earning a paltry $1.75 million this year. Not only do they have his services next year on the cheap as well, but they hold a $3.25 million option for 2012, which will almost certainly be exercised as long as he stays healthy. By the time this contract is over, the Rangers will probably have gotten three years of Lewis’ pitching for a grand total of about $8 million, or less than what Ben Sheets got for 2010 alone.
Kelly Johnson: 1 year, $2.3 million, +4.4 WAR
The Diamondbacks were beneficiaries of the Braves decision to non-tender Johnson rather than go to arbitration with him a second time. Even though they guaranteed him only one year, they still hold his rights for 2011, as he’s arbitration eligible for the final time. He’ll get a big raise after a monster season, but his paycheck will still be far less than what he’d get as a free agent. A no risk move that has paid off big time this year and will continue to provide value again next year.
Aubrey Huff: 1 year, $3 million, +4.4 WAR
One of the main reasons the Giants are still in contention in the NL West, Huff has basically replicated his 2008 season, playing everyday and providing significant offensive value. The Giants got their cleanup hitter for a fraction of what other first baseman were signing for, and have to be thrilled that they missed out on giving Adam LaRoche a multi-year deal.
Adrian Beltre: 1 year, $10 million, +5.7 WAR
The best performer from last winter’s crop, Beltre has been the Red Sox’ best player. His defense is as good as ever, but now he’s hitting the ball well again and easily earning his salary. While he’s more expensive than the rest of the guys on this list, he’s also packing a lot of value into one roster spot, and for a team trying to maximize their wins, that offers a lot of advantages. The Red Sox probably now wish that they could have gotten a team option for 2011 rather than giving Beltre an opt-out, because he’s going to get a big raise this winter.
Alex Gonzalez: 1 year, $2.8 million, +2.9 WAR
It’s hard to imagine this signing working out any better for the Blue Jays. They got a monster April from their shortstop, where he posted a .403 wOBA, and then dumped him a few months later for a better, younger player at the same position in Yunel Escobar. While Gonzalez didn’t provide as much value on the field as some other free agents, he established enough value early in the season to get used as a trade chip in the summer, bringing back a return that could pay off for years to come.
Of these five, I think Lewis still stands out as the best of the bunch. The Rangers solidified their rotation without spending any real money, and they can look forward to two more bargain basement seasons still to come. Thome has had a great year, but there’s no way the Rangers would rather have him than their #2 starter.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
How could you include Alex Gonzalez but not Jim Thome? That doesn’t make much sense.
Also, where did Carl Pavano factor into this discussion? Joaquin Benoit?
Well Gonzalez has put up 0.7 WAR more than Thome, so there’s that.
And that 0.7 WAR is probably attributed directly to the fact that Gonzalez plays SS and Thome is a full-time DH.
IMO, Thome was still the better free agent signing.
$8.9mil for 2.2 war? Thome doesn’t belong on this list.
neither does Beltre.
Kelly Johnson is the clear winner, followed by Huff.
Actually, they should probably be the only 2 guys on this list.
Is there a way to run WAR/salary on here? The salary column doesn’t show up under values on the leaders page.
oh dear:
Where do you get the $8.9 million figure in regards to Thome?
He signed for $1.5 million plus incentives.
oh, look at that… the salary column on his player page is empty so i read the wrong column 🙁
$1.5mil / 2.2 WAR does belong on the list.
still don’t understand what beltre is doing there.
While Beltre isn’t the cheapest of the listed options, he’s put up the highest WAR of the group for a team who could spend $10 million as easily as the Diamondbacks could spend $4 million.
Pavano wasn’t a free agent signing.
Well, technically he wasn’t. Good point.
I love technicalities, as well as semantics.
Marlon Byrd doesn’t get a mention?
Not on a 3 year deal he doesn’t…
Byrd would only belong on the list if you took into account the fact that he’s a 4.3 WAR/ $0 player this year, as well as a $0 player in 2011. The Bradley/Silva trade essentially covers the first two years of Byrd’s contract, with an extra $500,000 left over. They don’t have to pay him anything, really, until 2012.
There also is the age-old argument about whether or not “veteran leadership” is valuable to a team as an intangible quality. He can replace Lee in that regard, again if one believes in that and ascribes it an arbitrary value. With a youth-heavy team (11 rookies on the active roster right now: Coleman, Cashner, Diamond, Russell, Berg, Mateo, Castro, Barney, Colvin, Castillo, Fuld), having vets with more than just a pulse can’t be bad.
The Byrd signing is really akin to the Cubs’ DeRosa signing of a few years back. A fantastic, near-breakout season from an older, post-typical prime player. Hopefully, they can get another solid season in 2011 and flip him for prospects at the ensuing winter meetings.
Not that he’s the best, but Placido Polanco has been worth 3.6 WAR at 5.1 million.
I second this note. He clearly has ‘worked’ at 3b for the Phils. basically has contributed as much WAR per million spent as Beltre and the Phils have him for 2 more years (I think, haven’t checked) at a very reasonable salary.
Orlando Hudson’s been a very similar bargain for the Twins (5 mill/3.2 WAR)
Polanco also signed a multi-year deal, is in his mid-30s, and has had nagging back problems throughout his career. Much too early to call it a good signing.
Marlon Byrd? +4.3 WAR/3.5 million salary?
Ummm forget about me and my 4.3 WAR
Was this only Major League free agents? ‘Cause R.A. Dickey has been worth 2.3 WAR since being called up in mid-May after signing as a minor league free agent ($600K salary in the majors), and he’s under team control next year. Even assuming a substantial arbitration raise, he’s turned out to be quite the bargain.
+1 on Dickey. Great value there.
I think that’s a good one too.
How would Andres Torres fit in this discussion? Not a free agent this season, he was a minor league free agent signed last season but who blossomed this season.
Yes but factor in SABR love…. Beltre comes out on top.
am i the only person disturbed enough to have read that as “loveSABR?” instead of the famous lucas “woooshhhh,” the loveSABR emits hearts in statistically-pleasing distributions.
With Beltre, I’m tempted to subtract the production lost from Ellsbury and Hermida via collision, just for the hell of it
thats hilarious, and i think you’re right…
but beltre does not belong on this list to begin with. he was paid $10mil because he is supposed to put up 5 WAR, and he is… all of the other guys on this list are giving 1 war per $1mil or better.
This is why Byrd needs to be on it, why Beltre shouldn’t, and why Thome remains off it (almost $9mil for 2.2 WAR is NOT a good signing)
yes, i realize i am stupid and thome is making $1.5 mil, not 9.
he should be on the list.
This is Beltre’s second time eclipsing 5.0 WAR in his career. If he was expect to put up such great numbers he would be making twice as much money.
but if he is having one of his best seasons ever, and he is just barely cracking the $2mil/WAR rule… doesn’t that mean he was overpaid when he was signed?
if they didn’t expect 5 WAR, he should be making less than $10mil.
It isn’t $2 mil per WAR, it’s $4 mil per WAR.
Beltre is getting paid like a 2.5 WAR player, while he’s performing like a $25 million dollar player.
god.. i’m just way off today. i’m going home 🙁
the reason I think Beltre doesn’t belong on this list is because most teams would have given him this contract in a heartbeat. he just wanted to play for a good team in a big market. the deals for Lewis, Gonzalez, etc. weren’t no-brainers – those GMs deserve more credit for making a deal that wasn’t nearly as obvious.
5 WAR for $10M could be argued to be more valuable than 2 WAR for $1M. Why? Because it’s not easy to spend the $9M difference and come away with three wins.
What makes Colby the winner, to me, is the fact that the Rangers don’t just have him cheap for this season, but TWO MORE seasons.
I inspired a post from myself.
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/blog_article/the-true-cost-of-adrian-beltre/
yes yes, shameless self promotion.
In WAR/$ terms, the best one is definitely Lewis, then KJ, then Huff and Thome pretty much tied.
KJ(1.9 WAR/$) is higher than lewis(1.3 WAR/$)
WAR/$ is the wrong way to look at this one. A better measure is “surplus value.” If you look at the value of the player minus the cost of the contract, then that surplus is the benefit that the team gets.
In that case, Lewis is worth $13.7 on a $1.75M contract, for a surplus value of ~$12M. Johnson clocks in at $17.5 on a $2.3M contract, for a surplus value of ~$15M. Beltre gets you $22.8M in value on a $10M contract, for a surplus of ~$13M.
Given that, and that the D’backs get to keep Johnson via arbitration next year, and they’re the big winners on this one. Although, depending on how you value Yunel Escobar, the Blue Jays have a good case, even though the surplus value for Gonzalez is relatively low (~$9M, but they got a player back under team control.)
Except Johnson is going to get a big raise via arbitration, and Beltre may or may not replicate this year, but Lewis could pt up similar numbers next year at a barely higher salary.
So the big winner is probably Lewis, then maybe Beltre.
If using surplus value, I think it might be advisable to prorate the salaries.
I also wonder if using the full WAR metric, with its dependency on UZR, for sample sizes of only 2/3 of a season might not introduce too much uncertainty.
Thinking aloud: has anybody tried weighting the components of the WAR calculation to reflect uncertainty? Then, comparing a player’s full WAR to the weighted WAR would suggest how reliable this snapshot is. Today, you could just look at WAR and defensive RAR. but something tells me that WAR formulae will evolve quite rapidly over the next years…
Thank you!
I think folks are starting to understand the uncertainly/variability with UZR, but keep quoting the WAR #’s as though they are solid. When using a WAR of 1/2 season or 2/3 season it has to be taken with a grain of salt, especially if it has a significant defense component.
Adrian Beltre’s WAR at basbeballreference.com is 4.9… still a fantastic season – but that’s closing in on a rather large 1WAR delta. I don’t know the intricacies of the weighting system, but my guess would be this delta is largely from how the defensive value is calculated.
Name 2010 Salary (millions) || 2010 WAR || $ Per WAR (millions)
Dickey 0.6 2.3 0.3
Johnson 2.3 4.4 0.5
Huff 3 4.4 0.7
Thome 1.5 2.2 0.7
Polanco 3.6 5.1 0.7
Lewis 2.5 3.4 0.7
Byrd 3.5 4.3 0.8
Gonzalez 2.8 2.9 1.0
Beltre 10 5.7 1.8
I didn’t verify any of this. I just took the data from the post and from what commentators said in the thread. Sorted best value to worst.
Woohoo!
Bonus: Since Dickey’s $600K contract wasn’t purchased from Buffalo until mid-May, the Mets will only wind up paying him around $450K this year. So his current $ Per WAR (millions) would actually be a shade under 0.2. Nice to see the Mets actually win at SOMETHING.
but didn’t they win The Contest?
/bricked
What about John Buck?
dexfarkin:
John Buck is producing $7.7m value (1.9 WAR to date) on a salary which I think is roughly $3m for 1 year; FA at season end. I thought your suggestion was excellent and I expected John Buck to look better. The issue is the -3RAR defense rating he has.
Whatever FOX is paying him, it’s way more than he’s worth.
Oh, you said JOHN Buck.
Good call on Dickey. There’s another guy on the Mets making peanuts that’s also putting together a great campaign.
Angel Pagan: 1 year/1.45M, +3.9WAR
Nevermind, forgot Pagan was arbitration eligible. Fail.
He’s a great value (especially since he’s still under control for 2 years), just not a FA signing.
The Padres haven’t done too bad with Jerry Hairston Jr. (2.4 WAR, $2.125 million) or Yorvit Torrealba (2.1 WAR, $750K) especially considering that neither is a full time starter (but maybe they should be).
Yes… Torrealba. What a steal! Probably also a fluke. He has produced more WAR year-to-date than he did over the past 3 seasons combined. His current wRC+ is 2X what zips called for… makes Bautista look predictable…
Brett Myers?
No, no, no — players signed by Ed Wade are not eligible for consideration!
Kidding…seems like he’d be top 5, or at least an honorable mention.
I can’t wait to get paid and immediately frustrate my new team by being awesome in a completely different and subsequently less satisfying way than they expected!
This comment badly needs a “like” button… hilarious… even if I think you mean consequently rather than subsequently… for those of us who love technicalities and semantics 🙂
This is sig worthy
I love this
Baseball Reference lists Livan Hernandez as 4.3 WAR.
Not bad value for $900,000 …
I presume you said that knowing that B-Ref’s WAR figures for pitchers use different maths.
No, I didn’t, but by any measure, seems like players on losing teams tend to get overlooked 🙁
Nevertheless, he’s being paid $900k for 2.8 WAR. That’s a FANTASTIC deal. It’s three times less money than Alex Gonzalez but the same value.
Livan definitely deserves mentioning in this article.
What about “Big Bad” Vlad?
I don’t think you realize that beltre’s wins were worth much more this offseason to a team where everyone of those wins would have been more than the wins that kelly johnson would have produced. Yes, it was 10 mil, but for a team “trying to maximize those wins” each one is worth more. For a team coming into the season expecting 75 wins, 5 wins isn’t worth as much as it would be for a team expecting 85 wins. Each one of those extra wins is worth more for the ladder team than for the former. It isn’t just about War/$.
Matt Capps was a nice pickup too.
Lest not forget about Carlos Beltran!
What about the Dotel signing by the Pirates? They turned that into McDonald and Lambo by fleecing the Dodgers.
I’d say the colby lewis signing, is number one over all… everyone knows pitching wins championships… i am as big of a jim thome fan you can find. for the price you can’t beat his production (accept that frank thomas 500k deal with the a’s when he hit ALMOST 40 dingers) but thome is smashing the ball when it counts which adds up points in the non-statisical value section. What Colby Lewis brings to a team is a solid number 2 pitcher, with veteran leadership, and skills most importantly. How much money does the usual number 2 get paid on the free agent market? but thome belongs on the list, id rather have jim thome up over some of those guys when the games on the line which accounts for something.
nice comment, vlad was a nice pick up hes slowing down a litttle but he was hurting the ball for while there.
note the rangers have lewis signed in for two more years so, if this production is near the same for the next two years at such a small rate his value sky rockets, seeings how most of these one year signees will now get raises i.e. beltre
As a Twins fan I’m biased — and I do think Lewis is the best add — but Jim Thome has to not just be on this list, but close to the top. It’s not only his numbers in a strong pitchers park but the fact that he’s essentially replacing Justin Morneau in that lineup.
Were it not for Morneau’s concussion, Thome would still be playing 2-3 games a week, and he wouldn’t enter this discussion. But in light of what’s happened, he’s been a godsend for the Twins…
You raise quite a few very helpful ideas. Worthy of a read. I’ve passed your website through to friends
Envelope please… And the Most Stupid Non-Signing goes to… Ozzie Gullien
Subtract Thome’s WAR from the Twins (+2.3), then project whoever else would had been getting his playing time, and I’d just guess you get about +2.5-3 WAR.
Then, add the difference between Thome’s +2.3 WAR and Andrew Jones +1.1, and you have about a 3.5 game swing in the standings.
Gee, look at that, the CWS are 3.5 games back. Thanks Ozzie!