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FanGraphs Live Event, NYC

On Saturday, August 7th, FanGraphs and River Avenue Blues are hosting their first ever Live Discussion. The event will consist of three hours of conversation about baseball, analysis of the sport, and how the game is covered. Hosting the event will be David Appelman and Dave Cameron of FanGraphs along with Joe Pawlikowski, Benjamin Kabak, and Mike Axisa of River Ave Blues.

Notable guests include former Deadspin editor and author Will Leitch, baseball consultant and analyst Mitchel Lichtman, Boston Herald writer Michael Silverman, WEEI contributor Alex Speier, Bloomberg Sports team leader Jonah Keri, Wall Street Journal writer David Biderman, as well as other writers from FanGraphs and around the web. This is your chance to talk baseball with analysts and fellow fans of the game.

A ticket to the event will cost $15, and can be purchased here. The event will be held from 9 am to 12 pm at the Florence Gould Hall, 55 East 59th Street, New York, New York.

Join us for a morning of baseball conversation that will entertain and enlighten.


2010 Trade Value: #10 – #6

Introduction
#50-#46
#45-#41
#40-#36
#35-#31
#30-#26
#25-#21
#20-#16
#15-#11

#10 – Chase Utley, 2B, Philadelphia

Probably the best all-around player in baseball, Utley is a true superstar. He’s a +7 win player who does everything well. There are legitimately no flaws in his game. The only reason he’s even this low is his age, as he’ll be 34 when the remainder of the three years on his contract are up. Second baseman generally don’t last much past their mid-30s, and Utley’s body is showing some signs of wear and tear, even if it hasn’t affected his play on the field yet. Still, over those next three seasons, he’s going to be extremely valuable, signed to a deal that pays him about half of what he’s actually worth. He’s the real franchise player in Philadelphia.

#9 – Josh Johnson, SP, Florida

The Marlins ace has gone from a good arm to a true #1 starter, dominating with classic power stuff. If you haven’t seen him pitch, you’re missing out. The fastball has both velocity and movement, the slider is a knockout, and the change-up plays up because of how hard he throws it. He’s also a massive dude at 6’7 and 250 pounds, which is the kind of frame teams look for in frontline workhorses. The only blemish is his arm problems from 2007, but he has shown zero ill effects since coming back two years ago. He just signed a three year extension over the winter that pays him only $35 million over the next three years, a fraction of what he would command as a free agent. One of the game’s premier pitchers, the Marlins asking price for him would be almost unthinkable.

#8 – Joey Votto, 1B, Cincinnati

While people talk about what Adrian Gonzalez would command in a trade, imagine if he was just 26 years of age and had three more seasons before he became a free agent. You don’t have to wonder what that would look like – just look at Votto, who is basically the same player, just with a much better contract situation. He’s a beast of a hitter, a true middle-of-the-order slugger who can pound the baseball but doesn’t chase pitches out of the zone. Given the going rate of power hitters, Votto’s should be a huge bargain through 2013. I can’t imagine any scenario where the Reds would trade him at this point.

#7 – Jon Lester, SP, Boston

Lester squeaks in front of Johnson mostly due to his contract, which pays him just $38 million through 2014, but it’s not like he’s chopped liver on the mound either. The Red Sox lefty continues to establish himself as one of the game’s best left-handers, and it’s hard to question the work ethic or desire of a guy who has already beaten cancer. His stuff may not be as initially intimidating as a guy like Johnson’s, but he mixes his pitches well and everything moves. This allows him to pitch like more of a power guy even though he doesn’t light up the radar guns as often as others. The Red Sox ability to control one of the game’s elite pitchers at such a low cost gives them a huge advantage in the ultra-competitive AL East.

#6 – Seattle Mariners, Org, Seattle

Self-explanatory…

Okay, fine, here’s the real #6.

#6 – Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Washington

If there’s one ranking from last year I regret, it’s having him 43rd on the list. That was just not a good call. This is where he belongs as one of the game’s best players, and a guy who every team in baseball would covet. Just 25 years of age, he’s already a +6 win player thanks to his combination of offensive and defensive skills, and he’s signed through 2013 for a grand total of just $35 million. He looks like a bargain at this rate, but he may not be done developing yet – the scary part about Zimmerman is that there’s room for more improvement. At this price, the current performance and ability to provide even more in the future makes Zimmerman one of the game’s best values.


2010 Trade Value: #15 – #11

Introduction
#50-#46
#45-#41
#40-#36
#35-#31
#30-#26
#25-#21
#20-#16

#15 – David Wright, 3B, New York

It has been an interesting few years for Wright. After being a complete hitter in 2008, he lost his power and started striking out a ton last year. This year, he has regained his power but is still striking out at a high rate. The overall package is remains good, and Wright is in the argument for best third baseman in baseball, but the inconsistency in skills has to make you pause. In terms of his contract, he’s signed through 2013 for a total of $45 million. Given that those three years are his age 28-30 seasons, his salaries are team friendly compared to what Wright would receive on the open market.

#14 – Colby Rasmus, OF, St. Louis

The Cardinals star young outfielder has had a breakthrough sophomore season by sacrificing contact in order to generate a lot more power. While his strikeouts are way up, Rasmus has already matched last season’s home run total and has shown the ability to drive the baseball consistently. At just 23, he already provides a lot of offense for a center fielder, though his current performance is likely above his actual abilities – its almost impossible to hit .280 while striking out so frequently. Still, even if he settles in as more of a .260 hitter, his power and patience will make him a weapon, and the Cardinals will get to enjoy his production for at least four more years.

#13 – Robinson Cano, 2B, New York

At 27 years of age, Cano is well on his way to having the best year of his career. Always a high contact guy, he has continued to develop power while also improving his defense, and has turned himself into one of the best second baseman in the game as a result. The Yankees own his rights through 2013, and they are only on the hook for $39 million over the next three seasons. While that is decent money, it’s far below what he’s actually worth, and as a player headed into his prime years at an up-the-middle position, Cano provides significant value above and beyond what he costs.

#12 – Ryan Braun, OF, Milwaukee

This one was tough for me. Braun was a monster in his rookie 2007 season, but he has never been able to repeat those kinds of power numbers. In fact, his isolated slugging has declined in each of the four years he has been in the big leagues, moving in tandem with his strikeout rate, which has also fallen each year. Braun has apparently made the opposite choice that Rasmus made, and unfortunately, it hasn’t helped Braun. The skills are still there for him to be a star, but Braun is going the wrong way. That said, his contract is still far below his value, as he is locked up through 2015 for a grand total of $40 million. He might not be as good a player as he was his rookie year, but given how little money he is scheduled to make in his prime, Braun is still a bargain. And, who knows, perhaps he’ll realize sooner than later that he was better off as a monster slugger and live with the strikeouts. The skills are still there.

#11 – Justin Upton, OF, Arizona

Another tough one. Upton is not having a great year, as his power is down and his strikeouts are up over last year’s performance, but we have to keep in mind Upton’s youth. He doesn’t turn 23 for another month and has already accumulated 57 career home runs. Guys who are this good and this young almost always develop into superstars. Unless Upton screws it up, he can look forward to greatness ahead of him, and the Diamondbacks have already locked him up through 2015 for a total of $50 million. He’s not a star yet, but not only could he become one, he could be the best player in baseball. At this price, his upside would make every team in baseball get in on the bidding if he became available.


2010 Trade Value: #20 – #16

Introduction
#50-#46
#45-#41
#40-#36
#35-#31
#30-#26
#25-#21

#20 – Zack Greinke, SP, Kansas City

It would have been unfair to expect Greinke to repeat his remarkable 2009 season, and thus far, he hasn’t been able to do it. However, even after taking a step back, he’s still among the game’s best pitchers, and he is signed to a bargain contract that will pay him just $27 million in 2011 and 2012. Of all the guys in the Top 50, he’s probably the most likely to be moved before his current contract expires, so it will be interesting to see if we actually find out what Greinke’s trade value is in the next year or so.

#19 – Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pittsburgh

Teams love players who can do everything, and that’s McCutchen in a nutshell. He’s above average in every area, and as a 23-year-old with a broad array of skills, he’s got room for even more development. He’s already one of the game’s best center fielders and would get significantly more notice if he played somewhere besides Pittsburgh. Given that the Pirates have him under team control for five more years, they don’t have to worry about losing their franchise player any time soon.

#18 – Adam Wainwright, SP, St. Louis

Anyone who wasn’t sure how good Wainwright’s curve was learned during Tuesday’s All-Star Game. His curve ball is probably the best in the game, and his fastball, slider, and change-up aren’t bad either. He throws strikes, gets groundballs, and misses bats. There are really no flaws in his game. The Cardinals control him through 2013 at a grand total of $27 million, and the last two years of the deal are team options, limiting the liability if something goes wrong and he ends up hurt. Overall, the combination of excellence, low cost, and minimal risk adds up to a highly valued asset.

#17 – Kevin Youkilis, 1B, Boston

A six-win player signed through 2013 for a grand total of $37 million? Yes, please. Youkilis has surpassed what anyone thought he would become, and has turned himself into one of the best all around players in the game. He hits for contact and power, draws a bunch of walks, and plays quality defense at multiple positions. Even at age 31, he’s showing no signs of slowing down, and while he has a skillset that generally doesn’t age all that gracefully, he should remain highly productive through the rest of his contract.

#16 – Ubaldo Jimenez, SP, Colorado

No, he’s not pitching as well as his ERA would suggest. Yes, he’s still a phenomenal pitcher. His combination of stuff and performance is up there with anyone, and when you see him light up radar guns, it isn’t hard to see why hitters are having such a tough time generating runs against him. Beyond just what he brings to the mound, though, his contract is super team friendly – he’s got four years left on his deal (the last two being club options) for a grand total of $21 million. The last option is voidable if he’s traded, however, so an acquiring team would only get three years from him, which keeps him out of the top 15, but still makes him a tremendously valuable asset.


2010 Trade Value: #25 – #21

Introduction
#50-#46
#45-#41
#40-#36
#35-#31
#30-#26

#25 – Jay Bruce, OF, Cincinnati

The young outfielder for the Reds possesses all the abilities to be a true superstar, and a breakout year is coming, likely sooner than later. One of the best power and speed players in the game, Bruce will be a middle of the order hitter with defensive value, making him a rare specimen. He still has some growing to do before he gets there, but he’s already a quality player and has barely scratched the surface of what he could be. The Reds having him under team control through 2014 only enhances his value.

#24 – Tim Lincecum, SP, San Francisco

If this was strictly about past performance, he’d rank much higher. The continued loss of velocity, however, raises questions about what kind of pitcher he’ll be going forward, and teams have long been skeptical of his durability due to his size, workloads, and unorthodox delivery. Once you add his escalating paychecks into the calculation, and this is where we end up – with a pitcher who has been as good as anyone, but has enough question marks about his future abilities to keep him out of the top tier in terms of trade value.

#23 – Felix Hernandez, SP, Seattle

Perhaps because of the expectations that came with the beginning of his career, Hernandez can often feel like a disappointment because he’s not the best pitcher in the game. He is, however, in the discussion of guys not named Halladay, and his combination of stuff and durability have teams convinced that he could be even better if he ever fully matures. The five year contract he signed last winter is far enough below his market value that most teams could add him to their budget without too many problems.

#22 – Albert Pujols, 1B, St. Louis

Speaking of best in the game, trying to figure out where Pujols should land was quite the challenge. On one hand, he’s baseball’s premier slugger and drastically underpaid, but his contract only lasts through next season, so his value is short term only. He provides so much production, however, that teams would still be beating down the Cardinals door if he was ever made available, even though he’ll be looking for a huge paycheck a year from now. He’s pretty much the only guy good enough to overcome the lack of long term value.

#21 – Carlos Santana, C, Cleveland
Of all the good young catchers on this list, Santana is the best. A switch-hitter with power and a tremendous approach at the plate, he projects as a better version of Victor Martinez at the plate, only with much better defensive skills than his predecessor. He’s wasted no time in establishing himself as one of the game’s best young players, and because he wasn’t called up until June, the Indians will control his rights for six more years. The Dodgers will regret trading him for a long, long time.


2010 Trade Value: #30 – #26

Introduction
#50-#46
#45-#41
#40-#36
#35-#31

#30 – Ian Kinsler, 2B, Texas

The Rangers second baseman is not just one of the better all around players at his position, but he’s also one of the best bargains. He’s got three years left on his original long-term contract with the Rangers, and will be paid just $23 million over the remainder of that deal. He’s been a +4 to +5 win player in each of the last two years and is well on his way to matching that total again this year, making him an All-Star being paid like an average player. That’s tremendously valuable, and he’s one of the main reasons why Texas is the team to beat in the AL West.

#29 – David Price, SP, Tampa Bay

The starter in yesterday’s All-Star Game, Price’s improvements over last year are more incremental than his ERA may lead you to believe. His walks are down slightly and his strikeout and groundball rates are up slightly, so he is pitching better, but he’s not yet an ace. He may still become one, and given his stuff, every team in baseball would gladly wait for him to develop into one of the game’s best pitchers, but he’s not there yet. He is, however, a quality starter making very little money and under team control for another five years. He doesn’t have to be an ace yet to be highly coveted.

#28 – Shin-Soo Choo, OF, Cleveland

Over the last three years, Choo has posted wOBAs of .402, .389, and .382. He’s been consistently above average at every facet of the game, and yet he flies under the radar because his teammates haven’t performed up to his level. An thumb injury has derailed his 2010 season, but his long-term future is still very bright. He’d rank higher if he wasn’t headed for arbitration with Scott Boras as his agent, making a long term, team friendly deal less likely. Still, the Indians should be able to get three years of reduced rates out of a high-quality player before Boras takes him elsewhere, and every team in baseball would love to have him.

#27 – Clayton Kershaw, SP, Los Angeles

Like Price, he’s not yet what he could be, but he’s shown signs of getting there, and the leap may not be that far away. His stuff is legitimately top shelf, and as a 22-year-old lefty, few arms in the game were anywhere near where he is at this age. The command is still a bit of a concern, however, as is his ability to keep right-handers off base, but even with those issues, he’s a terrific arm. If he gets them straightened out, he’ll be among the game’s best. The Dodgers control his rights for four more years, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they tried to buy out his arbitration years before he started earning any real money.

#26 – Brian McCann, C, Atlanta

Yet another catcher with some power, McCann is probably the most polished of the young slugging backstops. He doesn’t make quite as much contact as he did a few years ago, but the walks are up and the power hasn’t gone anywhere. He is, clearly, one of the elite catchers in baseball, and at 26, he should remain a quality player through the remainder of his ridiculous contract. There are three years remaining on his deal, and he’ll earn just over $27 million during that time, less than half of what he’s actually worth. He’s the foundation of the Braves roster, and quite a piece to build around.


2010 Trade Value: #35 – #31

Introduction
#50-#46
#45-#41
#40-#36

#35 – Justin Verlander, SP, Detroit

The Tigers ace is one of the most dominant power pitchers in the game, but after what looked like a breakout season in 2010, he’s essentially reverted to being what he was before 2009 – a good pitcher who doesn’t get as much out of his stuff as you would expect. Teams would love to have him, certainly, but with an $80 million extension and a heavy workload, he comes with a fair amount of risk. That said, power arms are always highly sought after, and there’d be a line for his services if the Tigers put him on the market.

#34 – Mike Stanton, OF, Florida

Stanton is arguably the strongest player in baseball, and he doesn’t turn 21 until November. His ability to drive a baseball is almost unheard of for a player his age. The power comes with a cost, as his ferocious swing doesn’t make enough contact right now, but its important to remember just how young he is. He’s improved his approach at the plate, and while he’s still too aggressive, it shouldn’t be a permanent thing that can’t be fixed. Once he harnesses his natural abilities, look out. The Marlins would have to be overwhelmed to part with their monster in the making.

#33 – Matt Wieters, C, Baltimore

A year into his career, Wieters isn’t yet what everyone anticipated. Billed as a switch-hitting Joe Mauer with power, he’s shown the skills that got him so much hype in the first place except for the one that was supposed to set him apart – the ability to drive the baseball. It hasn’t helped that he’s been worse this year than he was last season, making it hard to find progress in his development. But we should also keep in mind that, for all the talk of how disappointing he’s been, he’s essentially been a league average catcher as a rookie, and there’s certainly potential for more. It’s far too early to give up on Wieters, though we have to adjust our expectations and perhaps recalibrate the timeline a bit.

#32 – Elvis Andrus, SS, Texas

In a league with few good shortstops, Andrus stands tall despite being just 21 years of age. A defensive specialist, he’s never going to be the best hitter in the league, but he provides enough value on offense that his total package makes him one of the better players at his position. His lack of power and too frequent baserunning gaffes are problematic, but the good outweighs the bad with Andrus. Good young players who provide value now and potential for more later are building blocks of good franchises, and that’s exactly what Andrus is to the Rangers right now.

#31 – Buster Posey, C, San Francisco

The Giants rookie catcher has shown why many thought he should have been given the starting job out of the gates this year. You can bet that he won’t be surrendering the position any time soon, and by limiting the service time he will gain this year, they ensured that he won’t be a free agent until after the 2016 season. San Francisco fans can look forward to six more years of a catcher who offers value both at the plate and behind it.


All-Star Game Live Blog / Open Thread

Update: Looks like Dave’s Internet isn’t doing so well. While he gets that all sorted out, consider this an open thread on the All-Star Game.

I’m hanging out at Angels Stadium today, and will be liveblogging the game. Join me at 7 eastern as we chat all night long.


2010 Trade Value: #40 – #36

Introduction
#50-#46
#45-#41

#40 – Jered Weaver, SP, Anaheim

Weaver’s breakthrough performance has come at a good time for him, as he heads towards his second year of arbitration eligibility. Already a quality pitcher, he’ll now take a career year built around an improved strikeout rate to the panel when asking for a large raise this winter. And, that is really the drawback that keeps him this low on the list – even as well as he’s pitching, he’s only got two years of club control left, and he’ll make decent money in both 2011 and 2012. However, even factoring in arbitration raises, he’s still going to be a bargain, and he’d be one of the most sought after pitchers in the game if the Angels put him on the market.

#39 – James Shields, SP, Tampa Bay

Like Weaver, Shields has seen a big jump in his strikeout rate this year. However, it hasn’t led to better results, as his home run problems and a high BABIP have undermined what should have been a breakout year. Those should even out sooner than later, and Shields abilities as a solid front of the rotation starter will again shine through. And, of course, since he’s a member of the Rays, he has a team friendly contract that includes three team options after 2011, giving Tampa Bay a cheap, quality pitcher with very little risk attached.

#38 – Josh Hamilton, OF, Texas

Similar to Weaver, Hamilton has had a monstrous breakout season, and he’s going to reap the rewards when he heads back to arbitration this winter. Power hitters command a large premium in the market, and so while Hamilton only has two more years of team control, those are hugely valuable years where he’ll be earning far less than what he would as a free agent. Given that he’s also a quality defensive outfielder with physical tools that have suggested this kind of performance was always possible, and Hamilton would be near the top of every GMs shopping list.

#37 – Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Colorado

There is no player in baseball less likely to be traded than Tulowitzki. Not only is he a great player at a premium position signed to a bargain of a long term contract, but that deal also contains a provision that lets him void the rest of the contract if he’s moved to another team. That makes him far more valuable to the Rockies than to potential suitors, who would only get two years of Tulowitzki’s services at arbitration salaries if they acquired him. However, that he won’t be traded doesn’t mean teams wouldn’t love to have him, and those final two years are extremely valuable, given the dearth of good shortstops in baseball and how much he adds both at the plate and on the field.

#36 – Tommy Hanson, SP, Atlanta

Don’t let the ERA fool you – Hanson has gotten even better after a strong rookie season in 2009. His velocity is up, giving him better stuff across the board, and it’s translated into fewer walks and more strikeouts this season. Still just 23, Hanson has the ability to dominate with regularity, and it won’t take long before he’s recognized as one of the National League’s premier arms. With five more years of team control after 2010, the Braves ace is going to be providing tremendous value for Atlanta well into the coming decade.


George Steinbrenner Passes

George Steinbrenner, perhaps the most famous owner in sports, passed away today. Since I have no personal anecdotes to share, we’ll simply stick to the numbers.

He was in his 37th year of owning the Yankees, having bought the team in 1973. In that time, his team won the American League pennant 11 times and the World Series seven times. During his reign, the Yankees won it all an average of once per five years.

Their record since Steinbrenner purchased the team: 3,364 wins, 2,583 losses. They won 56.6 percent of the games they played during his ownership.

Seventeen different people have managed the Yankees since 1973. Under Steinbrenner’s watch, the team changed managers 22 times, an average of once every season and a half.

Forbes estimates the Yankees worth in 2010 at $1.6 billion. The next highest estimate was the Red Sox at $870 million.

That will be the legacy Steinbrenner leaves – a lot of winning, a lot of managerial changes, and by far the most valuable franchise in sports. Hard to call it anything other than a success…