On Tuesday, the Diamondbacks announced they’d signed Cuban right-handed pitching prospect Yoan Lopez to a contract that includes an $8.25 million contract. This is the largest signing bonus given to an international prospect since Major League Baseball instituted new rules governing these signings in 2012, and signing Lopez means that Arizona is accepting the penalties that go along with blowing past the allocated bonus pool they were given.

But $8.25 million won’t stand as the record signing bonus for very long. It won’t even be the largest signing bonus by a Cuban named Yoan, because Lopez’s record is going to be shattered in a few months by Yoan Moncada, a 19 year old who is being billed as one of the best prospects to come off the island in a long time. Here is what FanGraphs lead prospect writer Kiley McDaniel wrote about Moncada in his original profile back in October.

“Moncada is 19 and packs a lot of tools into his 6’1/210 frame. He’s a plus-plus runner with above average raw power from both sides of the plate and the tools/skills to stick in the infield, possibly at shortstop. Moncada is the quick-twitch type with big bat speed that clubs covet and his track record of hitting at big tournaments and in Cuba’s professional leagues is excellent considering his age.”

Additionally, Ben Badler of Baseball America has written that if Moncada was eligible for the 2015 draft, he’d be in the mix to be taken #1 overall. This is not the kind of prospect who hits the open market very often, and naturally, all of the big money plays are reportedly interested. McDaniel has previously reported that the Red Sox and Yankees are “heavy favorites”, while MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez has put the Dodgers in the mix as well. With those three teams potentially engaging in a bidding war, Moncada is likely set for the kind of signing bonus that will make Lopez’s deal seem like an afterthought.

Read the rest on Just a Bit Outside.

12:03

Comment From jocephus fangraphs legal dept?

Read the rest of this entry »

We haven’t done this in a while — the last one was more than three years ago, actually — but FanGraphs is now actively accepting applications to join our writing staff. Specifically, we are looking for someone who is interested in writing for the main blog on a daily basis. Familiarity and comfort with the data here on FanGraphs is a requirement, but just as importantly, we’re looking for someone who can generate their own ideas and topics while providing interesting analysis or commentary on the game of baseball.

This is a paid part-time position, so prior writing experience is strongly preferred. When applying, please include samples of your writing — links to previously published content is even better — as well as either a resume or a brief overview of your educational and writing experience. Applications should be emailed to wanted@fangraphs.com, and use the subject line “FanGraphs Writer Application – 2015”; please ensure that is the subject so that we can keep all of the applications organized and yours does not slip through the cracks.

Whether you primarily have an analytical bent and are looking to use us as a springboard to getting hired by a team — we’re actually okay with that, so feel free to be honest about this — or identify yourself as a writer who is looking for a larger platform to publish your ideas about the game, we’re interested in seeing what you might be able to offer to the site. If you feel like you’d be a good fit as a daily writer for FanGraphs, drop us a line. We cannot promise to respond to every application we receive, but we’ll make sure every applicant receives serious consideration.

This morning, Ben Badler of Baseball America reported that the Diamondbacks have agreed to sign Cuban right-handed pitcher Yoan Lopez to a deal that includes an $8.25 million signing bonus. In comparison to the types of dollars we’ve seen for previous Cuban defectors, that number might seem somewhat small, but because of Lopez’s age and the rules surrounding international free agents younger than 22, Arizona has actually agreed to pay an extremely high price for the rights to sign the 21 year old hurler.

First, a quick refresher on the rules. Because MLB wanted international signings to somewhat mimic the way the amateur draft works, foreign players under the age of 22 are subject to bonus pool allocation limits. Like with the draft, these bonus pools are sliding scales based on prior season record, so teams that finished with the worst records get the most money to spend. Because the Diamondbacks finished with the worst record in baseball last year, they are going to receive the largest international bonus pool of any team for the signing period that begins on July 2nd.

However, by signing Lopez, they just punted the opportunity that comes with having the most money to spend, because the $8.25 million bonus that they gave Lopez pushed them way over their limit for the current signing period. The penalty for exceeding their pool allocation is a 100% tax on their overage and an inability to sign any player for more than $300,000 during either of the next two international signing periods, so while the Diamondbacks will be given a bonus pool in the range of $5 million for the upcoming July 2nd crop of talent, they won’t be able to spend it; there just aren’t enough legitimate prospects who will want to sign with Arizona for $300,000 apiece for them to use up their ~$5 million allocation.

And realistically, the 2016-2017 signing period will probably be similar. The Diamondbacks project as one of the worst teams in baseball for next season as well, so they’ll likely also have one of the larger bonus pools for the signing period that begins in 18 months, and again not be able to utilize it due to the restriction imposed by signing Yoan Lopez. Because of their poor Major League performances, the Diamondbacks were in a position to be able to make some significant international signings over the next two years, but they’ve decided that signing Lopez now will provide a better return than the chance to sign impact talents over the next two signing periods.

Now, there is some potential logic to this move, even beyond just the fact that Lopez might be really good. The signing restriction isn’t the same thing as the pool allocation being stripped away, as it is when a team forfeits a draft pick to sign a free agent; the Diamondbacks will still get the largest pool allocation for next year even after this signing. And because you can trade international bonus slots, Arizona will now have some pretty interesting trade chips to play with the next two summers. Any team who wants to sign a prospect for more than their own allocation, but without having to take the signing restriction policy, can now call up Dave Stewart and attempt to acquire some extra bonus money, and the Diamondbacks should be able to extract some prospects in return for the bonus money they can’t use.

And, there is some chance that MLB will just tear this whole system up in the next CBA, since it’s very clear the roadblocks the league tried to put in place to stop this kind of spending aren’t working. The current CBA expires on December 1, 2016, so if a new international system is put in place, it’s possible that the second year signing restriction could be eliminated, or at least converted into some other kind of penalty under whatever new system is adopted. Perhaps Tony LaRussa has some inside information on the likelihood of this system getting abolished before the second year restriction gets put in place, and so Arizona will take less of a hit for signing Lopez than currently appears.

And, of course, there’s always the possibility that Lopez just turns out to be a dominant #1 starter, which would make all of this a footnote; if he’s an elite talent, then these are easy prices to pay to acquire six years of team control. So, it’s not like this is a guaranteed disaster. Lopez could easily justify his acquisition cost if he turns into a good big league starter.

But don’t let the $8.25 million figure fool you; the Diamondbacks are paying far more than that to sign this kid. They had already previously announced five international free agent signings this period, with Badler reporting that two of the signings received $350,000 apiece, so they had already spent close to $1 million of their $2.3 million in allocated funds. By adding Lopez’s $8.25 million to the total, they’re looking at an overage tax of roughly $7 million, so the pure financial cost of signing him is really more like $15 million. And that’s without factoring in the opportunity cost of surrendering the largest pool allocation in next year’s international signing period, and potentially one of the largest bonus pools in the signing period after that as well.

This signing just made Lopez one of the most expensive pitching prospects in history. The signing bonus might look like peanuts in today’s baseball economy, but Lopez cost Arizona a lot more than just his $8 mlilion signing bonus.

Adding in a couple of comments from Kiley McDaniel, which he noted on Twitter.

Scout told me Yoan Lopez similar to Nick Howard (19th pick 2014 draft). Another prefers Lopez “by a hair” to teammate Touki Toussaint (16th)

— Kiley McDaniel (@kileymcd) January 13, 2015

I repeated those two quotes to a third source, who said he’s much lower on Lopez & he sees RP. Pro debut should clear a lot of this up.

— Kiley McDaniel (@kileymcd) January 13, 2015

As most of you know, I grew up in Seattle. My parents owned their own small business not far from Sea-Tac Airport, which meant that I spent a lot of after-school time at an auto parts store, trying to entertain myself with things that were of minimal interest to a child. But the store had a radio, and in the spring and summer, KIRO 710 broadcast baseball games. Combined with access to 25-cent packs of baseball cards at the 7-11 down the street, baseball became my babysitter.

We didn’t have a television until I was a bit older, and my parents worked too much to take us to the Kingdome very often, so I fell in love with the sport through the radio broadcasts of Dave Niehaus. I was taught about the game by his play-by-play calls, as neither of my parents were big sports fans, and the mid-80s Mariners weren’t exactly the kind of team that drew in anyone but those who truly loved the sport. I essentially became the sole reason my Mom and Dad paid any attention to baseball at all; even their moderate interest was mostly because, being good parents, they wanted to be involved in the things that I enjoyed.

I’m writing about this because, two weeks ago, I became a father, and in between diaper changes, I’ve been thinking about my son’s future relationship with baseball. How am I going to introduce him to the game? How am I going to teach him not just about the sport of baseball, but about being a fan?

Read the rest of this entry »

11:45

:

Read the rest of this entry »

This week, the Padres have acquired Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, and Wil Myers. There is a chance that they keep all three and play them side by side as their 2015 outfield. It would be an experiment in testing the limits of the offense/defense balance, essentially betting that fielding matters very little in relation to hitting the ball over the wall yourself. If the Padres keep all three in the outfield, they’re likely to have one of the best offensive and worst defensive outfields in baseball next year.

They wouldn’t the first team to try this, however. For fun, I decided to look back through the years for which we have UZR data and find teams that have punted outfield defense to maximize their own HR totals. To do this, I took all the team seasons since 2002, and looked for teams who ranked at the top and bottom of the league in home runs and UZR in the same season. Here are three examples of teams that have tried this same strategy in the last 13 years.

Read the rest of this entry »

Read the rest of this entry »

Two years ago, the Rays traded James Shields and Wade Davis to the Kansas City Royals for a package of talent centered around outfield prospect Wil Myers. The deal was divisive to say the least, primarily due to Myers’ inclusion; teams generally just didn’t trade prospects of his stature. When you have a 22 year old Major League ready slugger who rates as the 4th best prospect in the game, and you have an opening at the position that he plays, you generally build around him instead of using him to acquire an upgrade elsewhere.

But the Royals didn’t keep Wil Myers, preferring the short-term boost of adding a frontline starting pitcher and another talented arm who would become one of the game’s most dominant relievers. So, instead, the young right fielder went to Tampa Bay, where he was quickly anointed as the next big thing; he then justified the hype by winning the 2013 American League Rookie of the Year. But after a miserable 2014 season — including a two month stint on the disabled list due to a broken wrist — the Rays are reportedly on the verge of shipping Myers to San Diego, being the second team to sell off his future in 24 months.

So what’s the deal? Why is a promising young talent like Myers about to be on his third organization before turning 25? Is there a concern about his future that has caused teams to sour on him more quickly than we’d expect, given his performance and pedigree? Let’s take a look under the hood and see if we can identify any potential red flags.

Read the rest on Just a Bit Outside.

Over the last five years, a lot of good work has been done on valuing prospects. Victor Wang — now employed by the Indians — got the ball rolling in 2008, and his work was followed up by research from by Scott McKinney in 2011 and Kevin Creagh in 2012. Each piece was well done and is worth reading even now, especially if you’re interested in the various rates at which prospect tiers tend to go bust.

But we’re almost into 2015 now, and baseball revenues are exploding, making the valuations from even a few years ago look a little bit outdated. Just in the last year, we’ve seen three Cuban free agents — Jose Abreu, Rusney Castillo, and Yasmany Tomas — sign for around $70 million each, suggesting that teams are willing to pay significant prices for young talent with upside, even when there’s not an established Major League (or even minor league) track record from which to evaluate. We’re going to get an even better look at the market value of a premium prospect when Yoan Moncada is declared a free agent, and the bidding for his services is expected to reach $80 million once the taxes are accounted for, and that won’t even cover any of his future salaries; that’s just the cost of acquiring his rights.

So, helpfully, Kevin Creagh and Steve DiMiceli decided to update their study this week, adding in new data and using updated calculations for the price of a win based on recent inflation. Let’s look at what they found.

Read the rest of this entry »