Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 12/17/14

Dave Cameron: Well, this is a fun day to chat. Let’s talk Wil Myers and other things.

Comment From Vslyke
If the Padres really get Myers, how does that affect the Justin Upton trade market? Any chance the Giants get involved?

Dave Cameron: Upton never really made much sense for the Padres. I’m not sure there’s an obvious fit out there for the Braves. The Rangers, maybe, but they probably shouldn’t be trading for rentals either.

Comment From Logan Davis
Tim Brown has it the Mariners have been calling CHC on Ruggiano. Seems a likely fit for the reported deals we were hearing that included a not-really-significant RH hitter coming to SEA. What’s a fair price to pay?

Dave Cameron: A middling bullpen arm.

Comment From Guest
Who ends up with Myers?

Dave Cameron: I had fun with my wild speculation instagraphs post last night, but my guess is San Diego is acquiring him for themselves.

Comment From Padres Jagoff
With the Negative Nancy analysis of Wil Myers’ possible shortcomings today, aren’t there just as many possible warts on Austin Hedges (assuming he’s going the other way)?

Dave Cameron: Probably more with Hedges, though Jim Bowden suggests he’s not in the deal.

Comment From klof
when should the cubs offer kris bryant a long-term extension? your recent article suggests the failure rate on elite prospects is about 1 in 10 and bryant will likely only get more expensive to extend once he gets more big league balls leaving the park. is the new model to lock up guys as they are promoted or even before?

Dave Cameron: I wouldn’t be surprised if Cubs had already started conversations.

Comment From Nate
Perhaps Corner OF – SS swap between M’s and Padres?

Dave Cameron: I don’t think so. I’ve heard that the Mariners took their shortstops off the table and are leaning towards using Brad Miller as a Zobrist-like RF/SS hybrid next year.

Comment From Pale Hose
Are there any teams you like better/worse than the projections?

Dave Cameron: I don’t think the Mariners are the best team in baseball, so I’d cut a few wins off that projection. I think the Nationals might even be a little low at the moment.

Comment From Xolo
You like Myers as a pickup for the Padres?

Dave Cameron: Kind of? I don’t not like Myers, but even two years ago when we were talking about him as a right-handed Jay Bruce, that suggested more of a good player than a star. And now that the power hasn’t quite been what it was supposed to be in his first year-ish in the big leagues, it’s fair to question whether he’s more of a above average player than a good one.

Comment From Xolo
What do you think of the rumors that Kemp failed his physical?

Dave Cameron: I wouldn’t trust them.

Comment From Vanderbilt Commodores
Which deal this off season is your favorite? and which do you think will pay the most dividends for the acquiring team?

Dave Cameron: The Dodgers dumping Matt Kemp.

Comment From Los
Does it make sense for 20 teams to shoot for the middle if only 10 of them are going to make it?

Dave Cameron: They’re defining “making it” differently than you are. Teams aren’t establishing making the playoffs as a binary goal any more. Being in contention and getting the revenues that come from playing meaningful baseball in September are valued as well.

Comment From Matt
I know that the news just broke this morning but what are your thoughts on how the new relationship between Cuba and the USA will affect MLB?

Dave Cameron: Seems like it would probably be a posting-type system, like with Japan. Cuban government would sell players to MLB.

Comment From Dan
I don’t understand why the Rays would give up on Myers so early. Look at the pedigree of MILB POY and his injured wrist last year and realize that he probably needs a full season of 500+ PAs at the MLB level to get a better handle on his abilities.

Dave Cameron: The ROY was based on a .360 BABIP. His core performance in 2013 wasn’t great.

Comment From Ben
Why would the Nationals try to trade Zimmermann or Desmond when they have a legit shot at winning the world series? Pure cap move? Also, who has more trade value: Zimmermann or Fister?

Dave Cameron: Winning your division by 15 games doesn’t do you any good. If you can win it by 5-10 games instead, and pick up significant future value in the process, you come out way ahead.

Comment From Ceej
Why would the Rays sell so low?

Dave Cameron: It’s not selling low if you think Myers is going to be as mediocre as the projections expect for next year. Another year as a non-star with a slightly better than average bat and the prospect shine starts to come off pretty quickly.

Comment From mtsw
Re: Wil Myers, isn’t trading him like selling a car with only 5,000 miles on it? Like, the Rays’ willingness to trade him after a down year should indicate to other teams that there’s something seriously wrong with him?

Dave Cameron: Yes. That two teams have now decided that Myers is a better trade chip than a keeper suggests he was probably overhyped as a prospect.

Comment From Noli
dave- what do you think the giants will do the rest of this off-season? seems like they have a number of holes to fill with not a ton of options.

Dave Cameron: I could see them signing Shields and trading Lincecum (plus cash) for a third base reclamation project.

Comment From Oren
Hypothetically, if Kemp fails his physical and the Padres deal is off, it shouldn’t be a dealbreaker for the Rollins trade, should it? I presume the Dodgers can find a different arm to offer up to Philly instead of Efflin.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I would assume that the Rollins deal gets done no matter what.

Comment From _David_
Please ease my fears as a Mariners fan about the Desmond rumors. It’s the second time they’ve been rumored to be targeting a SS (Hanley). What gives?

Dave Cameron: Don’t think there’s anything there.

Comment From Mark
Why are things so quiet on the Aoki front? I cant say I’ve seen his name prominently mentioned anywhere.

Dave Cameron: Some agents are good at not leaking stuff. I’m guessing he ends up in BAL or CIN.

Comment From The Marksman
/If Souza’s involved in the Myers deal, where does he go?

Dave Cameron: He fits perfectly in TB as a Myers replacement.

Comment From Tommy B
So what exactly are the rays doing? Fire sale? Retool? Rebuild?

Dave Cameron: If you think Souza and Myers aren’t that different, as Steamer does, then they’re simply swapping out similar players and picking up additional talent to boot.

Comment From Phil
Hi Dave. Why is everyone so high on Hedges? I’ve read about him plenty but looking at those minor league numbers…he doesn’t look so great! I know stats only mean so much in the minors, but when do we have to stop looking at scouting grades / potential ceilings and start looking at actual performance?

Dave Cameron: Catcher offense develops late. If he’s really as good defensively as people think, then he can be a useful player even if he doesn’t hit much.

Comment From – Casey –
Any chance the Kemp trade actually falls apart?

Dave Cameron: Sure. But I’d say it’s unlikely. More likely to get reworked if something comes up. LA wants to dump him, SD wants to have him. They’ll figure it out.

Comment From Tom
I feel like that Brett Anderson deal has kind of flown under the radar – why in the world did the Dodgers give $10m guaranteed to a pitcher who has thrown 206 inniings the last four years? This has to be one of the craziest free agent signings ever right?

Dave Cameron: Because talent is more predictable than health. Teams have been giving out these kinds of deals forever. Ben Sheets, Rich Harden, Brandon Webb… lots of examples just like this.

Comment From NYBB2014
Has there been any study of the $ value of a marginal win, i.e. the 89th or 90th win vs. the first 60 – 80 wins?

Dave Cameron: Yep. Google “Win Curve”.

Comment From Aaron
Do the Red Sox need another starter? I’m inclined to say “no,” but would like to hear your thoughts on “needing” a front line starting pitcher.

Dave Cameron: They don’t need one, no. If Hamels price drops enough to where they can get him for Kelly and a couple of good-not-great prospects, then it’s worth doing.

Comment From Cashmere Taco
They’re not really in rebuilding mode, but does Myers likely trade make any else more available than before? (ie. Yunel)

Dave Cameron: Doubt it. This seems like they’ve just soured on Myers a bit.

Comment From jocephus
normalizing relations with cuba means ______ regarding their players

Dave Cameron: Hopefully an end to the need for them to be smuggled off the island.

Comment From Sam
Is Souza a AAAA player?

Dave Cameron: No reason to think that.

Comment From Don
Dave, please tell me there’s a real chance Myers goes to Texas

Dave Cameron: I have no information saying it’s happening, but I think it makes sense.

Comment From Jim
How, as a Yankee fan, do I get excited about this possible line-up: Gardner, Ellsbury, Prado, Beltran, McCann, Headly, Tex, Arod, Digi?

Dave Cameron: Stop worrying about batting orders?

Comment From White Lightning
Could Milwaukee possibly be more inactive this winter?

Dave Cameron: They’re building the Selig Experience. They’re busy.

Comment From Pirates Hurdles
How strange is it to see a player of Myers pedigree and apparent talent to be traded twice in two years this early in his career? Is this a red flag?

Dave Cameron: Carlos Gonzalez got traded twice early on, so it’s not a death knell or anything, but it’s a data point that has to be factored in.

Comment From Alek
Is Chase Headley really worth the near 4 WAR that he is projected?

Dave Cameron: What part of the projection do you think is crazy? He’s been an above average hitter his whole career and he has a long track record of plus defense at third base.

Comment From TB
If you had to pick a team to win the most games over the next decade, who would it be? Least games? I’ll go Dodgers ($$$ + Friedman)/Rockies.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, the Dodgers seem like a good bet. Least is probably the Phillies.

Dave Cameron: They’re going to be awful for a while.

Dave Cameron: Justin Ruggiano to the M’s is done, according to Jon Morosi.

Dave Cameron: Ruggiano is a perfectly serviceable fourth outfielder.

Comment From Marcus A.
Do you agree with the decision to turn Brad Miller into a Ben Zobrist-lite? Seems to make at least some sense to me, even if I do think he’s the best SS the Mariners have.

Dave Cameron: I’m not sold on Chris Taylor’s bat, so I wouldn’t be surprised if the experiment didn’t last long and Miller ended up back as the regular SS.

Dave Cameron: Which is one of the reasons why it’s probably smart not to trade Miller.

Comment From L. Scott
Why did the Reds trade Mat Latos so soon for 2 prospects? Why wouldn’t they do it closer to the trade deadline and at least put a good rotation out there for the first half?

Dave Cameron: Because Latos’ velo and K% are scary red flags and he might not be very good next year. Also, they were over budget.

Comment From Tommy B
What do you think of the Astros’ Nix settlement?

Dave Cameron: If Astros had to pay Nix, essentially admitting they made a mistake, I’m not sure why they shouldn’t also be punished by MLB.

Comment From JayT
Would you say your view of the Shields/Myers trade has changed at all with everything we know now that we didn’t know then?

Dave Cameron: A little, not a lot. I still don’t think the trade was a good idea for KC. Just like with the Fister deal last winter; even if the Royals/Tigers knew something that everyone else didn’t, you take advantage of that by getting big value back. I don’t think Royals got big value back in that trade.

Comment From Tim
How did it all go downhill so fast for the Reds? Five years ago they were considered a very young talented team with a strong future. Bad contracts on a small budget?

Dave Cameron: Bad drafts, bad free agent signings.

Comment From Dan
Rizzo – traded twice before age 25.

Dave Cameron: Yep, another example. It does happen to good players.

Comment From Dan
Idea: Lincecum to Royals for Moose

Dave Cameron: Zero reason for KC to do that.

Comment From Kenny
Anthony Varvavo looks like a decent enough reliever. How come he got DFA’ed?

Dave Cameron: Because the Braves already had a deal in place for him so they just opened up the roster spot early?

Comment From jim
can we assume people are probably overrating Heaney, then?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, probably.

Comment From Vilnius B.
Dave: the Orioles just saved a lot of money by not re-signing Cruz or Markakis. I’m puzzled however, that they didn’t bid on Morse. He can play 1B as well as DH. I know he’s had injuries but 8 million for 2 years? That’s dirt cheap in this marketplace for a guy with that kind of power. Thoughts?

Dave Cameron: Who says they didn’t bid on Morse?

Comment From C
Why did the Braves let Varvaro go for so little?

Dave Cameron: Prior to last year, he was kind of lousy. Relievers are fungible.

Comment From Sandy
Shouldn’t the Nationals be worried about regression and injuries? Werth is soon to be 36 and will certainly decline further, Zimmerman can’t stay in the lineup…why should the Nationals be confident they’re that far ahead of the Marlins and Mets?

Dave Cameron: Because they have more than just those two players and the rest of the NL East sucks.

Comment From The Oriole Bird
If you were a major league GM, who would you rather have on your club: Stroman or Sonny Gray?

Dave Cameron: Gray, slightly.

Comment From Pops
If the Phillies settle for Kelly and a couple of mid tier prospects there will be riots in South Philadelphia.

Dave Cameron: Eventually Phillies fans will have to accept reality. Cole Hamels isn’t worth what they think he is.

Comment From Prich
Andre Ethier and 50% salary relief for Ketel Marte… who wins?

Dave Cameron: No reason to take half of Ethier’s salary.

Dave Cameron: He’s bad.

Comment From John
at what point can we say alderson is awful at reading the market? this season – cuddyer – overpay and a bad acquisition at that; then he gives john mayberry a major league deal worth twice as much (and potentially more) than the other younger RH bats out there (Blanks, Sands) who took minor league deals. Is it back to the days where the Mets HAVE to overpay and guarantee spots to get anyone?

Dave Cameron: Have you seen what RH hitters are getting this winter? $10M per year is what meh RH outfielders cost.

Comment From Skuggs
Any thoughts on Sam Miller’s suggestion on the pod this morning that the Dodgers would have been better off giving Anderson a $20 million deal over 5 years instead of $10 million for 1? Deal gives the player long term security and allows the team to reap the benefits if he actually turns out to a be a steal, with (relatively) minimum cost.

Dave Cameron: And Anderson probably wouldn’t have taken it.

Comment From Brett+W
Cubs are projected at approx. $99M right now including pre-arbs. Assuming they have about $11M left to spend, how should they use their final $11M?

Dave Cameron: They need outfield help.

Comment From STiVo
Do the O’s get comp picks for both Cruz and Markakis?

Dave Cameron: Cruz. They didn’t offer a QO to Markakis.

Comment From Natitude Adjuster
Is Ryan Zimmerman the full-time first baseman for the Nats this year?

Dave Cameron: Yes. I’d imagine his days as a 3B are over.

Comment From Krazy Jorge
Did you know Cistulli would be such a great and unique podcast host when you hired him or was that just a bonus?

Dave Cameron: We had no idea what Cistulli was. We still don’t.

Comment From Natitude Adjuster
Over/under Bryce Harper 2015 WAR: 4.0? (This is his Steamer projection with 556 plate appearances.)

Dave Cameron: I’ll go over. I am a Harper fan.

Comment From Kris
Doesn’t the Myers deal(s) show that we immensely overvalue prospects?

Dave Cameron: You don’t even know what this Myers deal is. This comment suggests that you have a preconceived opinion that you’re filtering this trade through.

Comment From Joe
People have no problem assuming stats compiled at Coors Field are inflated, so why is it so hard for everyone to recognize the opposite when a hitter like Headley leaves Petco?

Dave Cameron: It’s a good question.

Comment From FC
Does DJ Peterson stay at 3B going forward, or does he get moved to first with Seager at 3B for the foreseeable future and nobody blocking him at 1B in Seattle?

Dave Cameron: He’s going to 1B.

Comment From Snarfle
If you’re the Rays, what are you looking for in a Myers trade? Is it just a matter of getting enough value to justify selling current wins for future wins?

Dave Cameron: Ken Rosenthal has suggested that the Rays may be getting Steven Souza in the deal. I like Souza and think he’s probably not that far off from Myers, so if that report is accurate, I don’t think this is much besides the Rays trading specific things within the same genre.

Comment From Bent Weiner
Why are the Mariners projected to win so many games? They have 1 good offensive player and one overrated DH. Their pitching is obviously very good but they have a whole bunch of junk at several positions and a GM without a great track record of improving their team or making smart decisions. Please tell me, why I should believe that the M’s as currently constituted will win more than 84 games.

Dave Cameron: Because they have good players that you either don’t know about or don’t care to know about.

Comment From Prich
So is Ruggiano/Miller likely the plan at this point in RF for the Ms?

Dave Cameron: That’s my guess.

Comment From Jeff
The Royals might have been right to sell Myers, but they also sold Odorizzi, and didn’t get back as much as they should have. Bad trade.

Dave Cameron: Essentially, yeah, I agree. We can readjust our opinion of the wisdom of trading Myers without concluding that the Shields trade was how they should have traded him.

Comment From Tom
At the time of the Myers/Shields trade, my brother-in-law, a Royals fan, argued that the trade, while an overpay in terms of years and production value, was a fair one in terms of the intangible value of having a leadership presence for the rotation. While we can’t truly quantify that, there is something to that argument, no?

Dave Cameron: No.

Dave Cameron: There’s literally no way your brother-in-law could know anything about Shields’ leadership or tangible presence on the Royals player. He was making stuff up.

Comment From Derek
Stroman has safer mechanics than Gray, less likely to be hurt in the future

Dave Cameron: If you can predict pitcher injuries with any kind of consistency, start a blog and prove it. You’ll become a rich man very soon.

Comment From Guest
Assuming you are correct on Hamels’ worth, why should the Phillies bother?

Dave Cameron: Because his value is only going to decline. He’s a diminishing asset. If you don’t like that return for him now, you really won’t like what teams will give up in 12 months.

Comment From STiVo
Any red flags on Mookie, other than a very short track record of success? (None of the obvious ones like plate discipline or sky-high BABIP are apparent.)

Dave Cameron: Not really. He’s about as safe a bet as prospects get. Outfield defense is a variable, I guess.

Comment From Bret
Do the Padres play Myers in CF, or is Seth Smith on his way out?

Dave Cameron: Unclear. Would think that that Myers days as a CF are over, but you never know.

Comment From tdov
Gio Gonzalez – traded 3 times before he even threw a major league pitch

Comment From Aaron
Are the Nationals a good 2B away from being one of the best teams ever?

Dave Cameron: Well, no, but they’re a good 2B away from being the best team in baseball right nowl .

Comment From Bob
Crick and Panik for J.Upton, who says no?

Dave Cameron: Giants don’t even think about it.

Comment From mtsw
Everyone factors in Coors because it has a memorable explanation behind why its such a hitters’ park (thin air in Denver) whereas the reasons for why Petco is a pitchers park are less clear in peoples’ minds.

Dave Cameron: The ball doesn’t carry on the west coast. Notice how basically ever park in California and Washington is pitcher friendly?

Comment From Lee
What kind of return would you expect for Allen Craig? A decent reliever perhaps?

Dave Cameron: Salary relief and a throw-in. He’s not worth much.

Comment From Snarfle
Here’s some high praise for you Dave Cameron. You are in the small subset of writers from whom I’d like to see MORE articles ending with: “I think my wild speculation about [ARTICLE THESIS] at least sounds reasonable, even if it’s based on nothing more than imagination.”

Dave Cameron: Thanks, I think?

Dave Cameron: Wild speculation can be fun.

Comment From Dustys Toothpick
What about the California League? Or is that more of a matter of the ballpark dimensions?

Dave Cameron: That’s elevation. The Cal League ballparks that are launching pads are in the mountains.

Dave Cameron: Okay, off to get some writing done and prepare for the Wil Myers trade reaction. Please happen already, trade.

Dave Cameron: See you guys in 2015!