Author Archive

NERD Game Scores for Monday, May 18, 2015

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

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Most Highly Rated Game
Cleveland at Chicago AL | 20:10 ET
Kluber (52.2 IP, 66 xFIP-) vs. Sale (35.1 IP, 87 xFIP-)
As the reader is likely aware, Cleveland right-hander Corey Kluber recorded 18 strikeouts in his most recent start. With regard to the historical significance of that performance and also by what means Kluber made it possible, dauntless polymath Owen Watson has supplied all relevant information. In this week’s edition of the Sunday Notes, David Laurila addresses another matter relevant to Kluber, paraphrased here: on the 30 occasions on which a pitcher has recorded 18-plus strikeouts in a single game, those same pitchers have averaged 7.4 strikeouts in their respective subsequent outings. Readers who are so motivated might consider choosing either the over or under on that particular figure and then compelling a friend or awkward acquaintance to select the opposite.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Cleveland Radio.

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NERD Game Scores for Sunday, May 17, 2015

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

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Most Highly Rated Game
Milwaukee at New York NL | 13:10 ET
Peralta (45.0 IP, 100 xFIP-) vs. Syndergaard (5.1 IP, 128 xFIP-)
Young Mets right-hander Noah Syndergaard’s major-league debut wasn’t a rousing success, necessarily, in terms either of run prevention or defense-independent numbers. It also wasn’t a complete failure by those standards, either, though. And more relevant to the reader searching for maximum pleasure this afternoon is that the giant Nord exhibited the repertoire which has earned him considerable praise from scouting types, sitting at 97 mph with his fastball and throwing a curveball capable of provoking considerable duress for opposing hitters.

This curveball, specifically:

NS Curve 3

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Milwaukee Radio or New York NL Television.

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NERD Game Scores for Saturday, May 16, 2015

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

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Most Highly Rated Game
Washington at San Diego | 20:40 ET
Scherzer (49.2 IP, 77 xFIP-) vs. Cashner (44.0 IP, 87 xFIP-)
Over the first seven starts of his 2015 season, Washington right-hander Max Scherzer has produced roughly the same strikeout rate that he recorded over his three most recent years in Detroit while also somehow halving his walk rate. Neil Weinberg examined some potential explanations for this development on Friday for the electronic pages. As one might expect, it’s some combination of irresponsible and impossible to reach any firm conclusions on the matter. Here’re two notable and possibly related developments, however: Scherzer is (a) throwing his fastball more often and also (b) inducing more swings at pitches out of the zone. The reader is invited to look for evidence of these trends during Scherzer’s start this evening. Also, because it’s a Saturday in late May, the reader is also probably invited to a graduation party for a relative or family friend.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Washington Radio.

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The Best of FanGraphs: May 11-15, 2015

Each week, we publish north of 100 posts on our various blogs. With this post, we hope to highlight 10 to 15 of them. You can read more on it here. The links below are color coded — green for FanGraphs, brown for RotoGraphs, dark red for The Hardball Times, orange for TechGraphs and blue for Community Research.

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FanGraphs Audio: The Mostly Unfeeling Jeff Sullivan

Episode 562
Jeff Sullivan is a senior editor at FanGraphs. He’s also the mostly unfeeling guest on this edition of FanGraphs Audio.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 1 hr 11 min play time.)

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NERD Game Scores for Friday, May 15, 2015

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

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Most Highly Rated Game
New York AL at Kansas City | 20:10 ET
Pineda (46.1 IP, 55 xFIP-) vs. Young (23.0 IP, 104 xFIP-)
Most of the observations one might reasonably make while attempting to characterize the nature of Michael Pineda’s success so far this year were made by Jeff Sullivan for the benefit of this site’s readers on Monday. Summarized briefly, however, what Pineda has done is to produce one of the league’s best strikeout rates while also recording (relatively speaking) an even better walk rate. Indeed, were Bartolo Colon never to have been born, Pineda’s walk rate would currently stand as the best in the majors. Coincidentally, Bartolo Colon having never been born is actually the premise on which noted filmmaker Charlie Kaufman has written a remake of Frank Capra’s 1946 classic It’s a Wonderful Life.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Kansas City Radio?

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NERD Game Scores for Thursday, May 14, 2015

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

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Most Highly Rated Game
Boston at Seattle | 22:10 ET
Kelly (34.0 IP, 99 xFIP-) vs. Elias (18.2 IP, 86 xFIP-)
In terms of aesthetic heights, tonight’s collection of games would appear to offer a lower probability of scaling them — or, perhaps more accurately, allowing the viewer to scale them — than what has been available previously this month. Boston’s Joe Kelly has recorded the highest average fastball velocity among qualifiers, but his arm speed hasn’t translated either to run prevention or even particularly great fielding-independent numbers. Seattle’s Roenis Elias throws strikes at a rate about a standard deviation greater than the average starter, but he lacks metaphorical electricity.

Indeed, one might consider utilizing tonight to observe some compelling amateur talent, instead. Hard-throwing Louisville right-hander Kyle Funkhouser, for example — ranked fifth among all draft prospects recently by Kiley McDaniel — starts tonight against NC State at 6pm ET, which game is available on Watch ESPN. Meanwhile, Vanderbilt plays Alabama at 8pm ET, which game features both right-hander Carson Fulmer and shortstop Dansby Swanson — both also ranked among McDaniel’s top-10 draft prospects. That game is available on streaming video by means of SEC Network Plus, itself also accessible through Watch ESPN.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Boston Radio.

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The Fringe Five: Baseball’s Most Compelling Fringe Prospects

The Fringe Five is a weekly regular-season exercise, introduced a couple years ago by the present author, wherein that same author utilizes regressed stats, scouting reports, and also his own fallible intuition to identify and/or continue monitoring the most compelling fringe prospects in all of baseball.

Central to the exercise, of course, is a definition of the word fringe, a term which possesses different connotations for different sorts of readers. For the purposes of the column this year, a fringe prospect (and therefore one eligible for inclusion in the Five) is any rookie-eligible player at High-A or above both (a) absent from the most current iteration of Kiley McDaniel’s top-200 prospect list and (b) not currently playing in the majors. Players appearing on any of McDaniel’s updated prospect lists or, otherwise, selected in the first round of the current season’s amateur draft will also be excluded from eligibility.

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NERD Game Scores: An Emergency Involving Carlos Frias

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

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Most Highly Rated Game
Miami at Los Angeles NL | 19:50 ET
Cosart (34.1 IP, 105 xFIP-) vs. Frias (12.2 IP, 77 xFIP-)
One of the giant but also rarely mentioned benefits of marriage is that it provides each of its constituent members with an infallible means by which to excuse him- or herself from unappealing invitations. Were loathsome Dayn Perry of CBS Sports to suggest, for example, that he and the present author meet at a local bar tonight, it would be entirely reasonable for that same author to decline the offer while mumbling something about his wife. Perry, despite his wide and impressive array of flaws, would be compelled to accept this answer and look to afflict his bilious spirit on someone else. For a mere “girlfriend,” however, no such vague excuses could be made, nor would Perry capitulate so quickly. In short, it would be awful.

Besides spouses, however, one other sort of alibi can prove effective, if used sparingly — namely, the sort involving emergencies. And here one finds the relevance of tonight’s Marlins-Dodgers game — in particular, the part of it including Los Angeles right-hander Carlos Frias. Frias, a relative unknown before joining the Dodgers bullpen last year — and still something other than a household name — has recorded both an expected FIP and average fastball velocity both more than 1.5 standard deviations better than the respective means produced by the league’s starters. He also throws strikes at a rate roughly one standard deviation better than those same starters. What this particular game represents is an opportunity to observe Frias en route to excellence. It is, in short, an emergent need that requires the attention of the reader — and can be cited as such should Dayn Perry or one of his spiritual doppelgangers invite you to an awful thing.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Los Angeles NL Television.

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NERD Game Scores: Noah Syndergaard Debut Event

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

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Most Highly Rated Game
New York NL at Chicago NL | 20:05 ET
Syndergaard (N/A) vs. Arrieta (37.0 IP, 74 xFIP-)
This contest represents the major-league debut of Mets right-hander Noah Syndergaard, a young and giant Dutch-American who was ranked first overall among Mets prospects this past offseason by Kiley McDaniel and 19th overall among every prospect by that same Kiley McDaniel. The 22-year-old Syndergaard features a promising combination of physical tools and performance. Here, for example, is his average fastball velocity (according to PITCHf/x) over the course of two appearances in the annual Futures Game: 96.54 mph. And here, also, are his strikeout and walk rates over 29.2 innings this season at Triple-A Las Vegas: 30.1% and 7.1%, respectively. Syndergaard receives the promotion as a result of an injury to Dillon Gee, although there are likely multiple possible scenarios in which he never returns to the minors.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Chicago NL or New York NL Television.

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