Author Archive

FanGraphs Audio: Kiley McDaniel on the 2018 Draft Class

Episode 804
Recently, Eric Longenhagen and guest Kiley McDaniel published a list of the top prospects for the 2018 amateur draft. More recently, McDaniel himself provided an update on many of those prospects a couple weeks into their respective seasons. In this episode, he not only discusses that update but also recounts a recent trip to the Dominican Republic for MLB’s International Showcase.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 1 hr 2 min play time.)

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FanGraphs Audio: Travis Sawchik at Home and Office

Episode 803
At one of his previous places of business, guest Travis Sawchik and the rest of his coworkers were accidentally sent a spreadsheet containing the salary of every employee at the company. The information, according to Sawchik, “created some animosity” around the office. This incident is almost certainly relevant — at least in some way — to the very public manner in which ballplayers are compensated. “How?” is the question nearly addressed in this edition of the program.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 56 min play time.)

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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 2/26/18

2:04
Dan Szymborski: Hey guys!

2:05
Lee: What are your thoughts on Franchy Cordero’s # of plate appearances in the majors this year?

2:06
Dan Szymborski: It’d be surprised if he got more than 100 honestly.

2:06
ericstephenisgod: is wilmer font the nl cy young favorite at this point?

2:06
Dan Szymborski: Ha

2:06
Lee: Did Thor just peak for the year? 7 of 12 perfect 1st inning pitches at 100 or 101 mph

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FanGraphs Audio: Eric Longenhagen Postviews Prospect Week 2018

Episode 802
Somewhat recently on FanGraphs Audio, Kiley McDaniel previewed Prospect Week 2018. More recently, Prospect Week 2018 itself actually occurred at FanGraphs. Now, Eric Longenhagen dedicates some portion of this episode to reliving Prospect Week 2018.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 1 hr 3 min play time.)

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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 2/19/18

2:02
Matt: Hi Dan. Did you chat move to Mondays because you could never remember when Thursday was?

2:02
Dan Szymborski: Actually, that’s kinda what happened.  Weekdays mush together, I think for me *and* Carson since one of us would always forget.

2:03
Bobyt: Do the Dodgers need any holes filled. IE another starting pitcher.

2:03
Dan Szymborski: They’re perhaps a skosh below average at 2nd, but I doubt they aggressively try to fill that up.

2:03
S: Where does Dickerson end up? Rockies makes some sense.

2:04
Dan Szymborski: Rockies do make sense, plus there’s history there

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FanGraphs Audio: Dayn Perry and the Great Geometry Gambit of 1989

Episode 801
Dayn Perry is a contributor to CBS Sports’ Eye on Baseball and the author of three books — one of them not very miserable. He’s also the virulently apathetic guest on this edition of FanGraphs Audio.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 53 min play time.)

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Jay Jaffe Inaugural FanGraphs Chat – 2/15/18

12:01
Jay Jaffe: Hello and welcome to my FanGraphs chat debut, part of what we might call my soft launch at FG (Im going on a previously scheduled vacation next week) ! I’m an old hand at chats from my Baseball Prospectus days, and we did a few at SI around trade deadlines, but I’m looking forward to getting back to doing these regularly. Anyhoo, on with the show…

12:02
Clay Achin’: What can you tell us about yourself, for the uninitiated

12:05
Jay Jaffe: I laid out an outline of my career in my introductory post (https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/stepping-into-the-box/) but for those who haven’t gotten there yet, I’ve been writing about baseball since 2001, when  I started up Futility Infielder. Debuted at BP in early 2004, writing about Hall of Fame stuff, and later creating the Prospectus Hit List and writing a column called Prospectus Hit and Run. in 2012, Sport Illustrated hired me to start up a new daily baseball blog, and gradually that morphed into a less bloggy/more column-oriented role. I’m best known for my HOF work, which culminated in the publication of my book, the Cooperstown Casebook,  this past July. I live in Brooklyn, amm married to a baseball writer/editor, Emma Span (late of SI, now at the Athletic) and have an adorable 18-month old daughter.

12:06
Brad: Replacing Eno’s chat is tough act to follow.  I wish you the best.  Chase Utley a hall of famer in your opinion?

12:09
Jay Jaffe: Eno has left some very big shoes to fill, both in terms of baseball and craft beer. I do think Chase Utley is Hallworthy; he’s 10th among second basemen in my JAWS system, which averages a player’s career and 7-year peak WAR. Alas, I think the late start to his career will make him a tough sell among voters, because so much of his value is tied to defense and because he’ll likely fall short of 2,000 hits — a proxy for career length that has unfortunately become a bright-line test for voters (Bobby Grich, Dick Allen, Minnie Minoso, Jim Edmonds are among those on the wrong side of that line).

12:09
CamdenWarehouse: Welcome, Jay!  This timeslot is known for accepting beer questions, is that ok with you?

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FanGraphs Audio: Meg Rowley on the Peacetime Consigliere

Episode 800
In her most recent and also first appearance on FanGraphs Audio, guest Meg Rowley revealed that she’d done some scholarly work in the area of political representation before turning to the more important matter of baseball weblogging. Here, she wonders whether a former major-league player is as well suited to deal with ownership’s relentless negotiators than a labor lawyer.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 41 min play time.)

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2018 ZiPS Projections – Washington Nationals

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Washington Nationals. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Batters
The Nationals have developed into one of the league’s “super teams” in recent years, having compiled a roster that is rivaled by few others in terms of balance and overall strength. In 2017, for example, both the club’s hitters and pitchers finished seventh or better by WAR. That feat was accomplished by only three other clubs, all of which reached the postseason.

Regard:

Top-10 Team Batter and Pitcher WAR, 2017
Team Batter WAR Batter Rank Pitcher WAR Pitcher Rank Average Rank
Dodgers 30.1 2 24.3 3 2.5
Indians 27.3 4 31.7 1 2.5
Yankees 27.9 3 24.4 2 2.5
Astros 33.0 1 20.8 6 3.5
Nationals 26.1 6 19.8 7 6.5
Cubs 26.7 5 15.9 12 8.5
Cardinals 24.6 8 16.7 10 9.0
D-backs 19.8 14 23.2 5 9.5
Red Sox 17.8 15 23.9 4 9.5
Rays 21.0 13 15.9 13 13.0

With regard to the Nationals’ field-playing cohort, specifically, almost all the principals from the 2017 club return in 2018. Even some of the non-principals return, as well. Bryce Harper (575 PA, 4.9 zWAR) and Anthony Rendon (585, 4.5) are near-MVP types, while Trea Turner (558, 3.4) does quite well here, too. Adam Eaton (583, 3.0), meanwhile, will essentially serve as a new acquisition for Washington after having recorded just 107 plate appearances in his first year with the organization.

Ryan Zimmerman (496, 0.8) is the club’s weakest link per ZiPS, forecast for just a 102 wRC+ after producing a 138 wRC+ mark in 2017. Szymborski’s computer calls for a 38-point drop in BABIP (.335 to .297) and 60-point decline in isolated power (.269 to .209), too.

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2018 ZiPS Projections – Chicago Cubs

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Chicago Cubs. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Batters
Dan Szymborski’s computer projects only three Cubs — Kris Bryant (670 PA, 5.8 zWAR), Anthony Rizzo (658, 4.9), and Addison Russell (508, 3.0) — to produce three wins or more in 2018, yet all eight of the positions on the depth-chart image below are forecast to reach that mark (within a rounding error, at least).

The cause of that discrepancy is as obvious as the deep, unabating terror in every mortal heart: the Cubs use platoons often and to good effect. Ben Zobrist (478, 1.9), for example, lacks a set role but is likely to complement Javier Baez (507, 1.7) and Jason Heyward (538, 2.3) at second base and right field, respectively. Ian Happ (545, 2.2), meanwhile, will probably share center and left fields with Albert Almora (437, 1.2) and Kyle Schwarber (511, 1.2).

As for weaknesses, no obvious one exists in the starting lineup as it’s presently constructed. That said, neither Almora nor Schwarber seem to be great candidates for a full-time role on a championship club — or, not according to ZiPS, at least. Were Happ to suffer an injury or fail to compensate for his strikeout rates with sufficient power on contact, then the team might be compelled to look for help elsewhere.

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