Episode 488
Dayn Perry is a contributor to CBS Sports’ Eye on Baseball and the author of three books — one of them not very miserable. He’s also the guest on this edition of FanGraphs Audio — during which episode he provides a memorable account, for example, of a recent bath.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 47 min play time.)

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Episode 487
On Wednesday of this week, FanGraphs author Eno Sarris published an entirely amusing interview with Oakland corner-type and sabermetric enthusiast Brandon Moss. This is the rough but spirited audio from same.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 20 min play time.)

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Seattle at Toronto | 16:07 ET
Tom Wilhelmsen (77.0 IP, 94 xFIP-, 0.2 WAR) faces Daniel Norris (124.2 IP, 32.5% K, 8.6% BB in Minors). This game, despite featuring little — one might reasonably say just 0.4% — in the way of playoff implications, does represent the left-handed Norris’s first major-league start. A second-round pick in 2011 by Toronto out of a Tennessee high school, Norris entered the season having exhibited both excellent moments and also command issues during his minor-league career. After recording promising figures both at High- and Double-A this season, though, he transformed essentially into a starting version of Aroldis Chapman with Triple-A Buffalo, with which club he produced strikeout and walk rates of 44.7% and 9.4%, respectively, over five appearances and 22.2 innings.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Toronto Radio.

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Among the points one is compelled to make when arguing on behalf of Corey Kluber’s candidacy for this year’s Cy Young award is that the defense behind him has been of suspect quality, leading to an inflated BABIP (.316) and higher ERA (68 ERA-) than his main rival for the distinction, Felix Hernandez (63 ERA-). Indeed, the main defensive metrics available at the present site, Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) and Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) rate Cleveland’s fielders as collectively the worst and… also the worst among the league’s 30 clubs.

With this as the background, then, one might naturally regard Danny Salazar’s line from Tuesday night with some measure of surprise (box score). On a night when he Salazar struck out 30% of the 26 batters he faced and recorded an xFIP and FIP of 3.75 and 1.63, respectively, that same right-hander also conceded eight hits and five runs over 4.2 innings, producing a single-game 9.64 ERA. While it’s not impossible for a pitcher to allow a .533 BABIP over the course of one start, it’s also not a common occurrence — and even more suspicious when it happens to a Cleveland pitcher.

In any event, Cleveland lost perhaps the last meaningful game they’ll play all season on a night when their starter recorded an above-average fielding-independent performance. Did Cleveland’s defense sabotage the game? Was it merely a case of batted-ball variance? A combination of the two?

Without defensive-tracking technology such as that presented by MLBAM at the beginning of the season, there’s no way to tell for sure the speed or efficiency of the routes with which each play has been executed. In the absence of a more sophisticated method, then, what I’ve done below is identify the five hits which led directly to Kansas City’s five runs and attempted to determine if the responsibility for them lay with Salazar, the defense, or some combination of both.

Fourth Inning
Batter: Alex Gordon
Outcome: Single
Sabotage? Probably Not

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
San Francisco at Los Angeles NL | 22:10 ET
Tim Hudson (184.0 IP, 96 xFIP-, 1.7 WAR) faces Clayton Kershaw (190.1 IP, 57 xFIP-, 6.8 WAR). The Dodgers could clinch the NL West with a win tonight against the Giants. One assumes such an event — a clear indicator of success in their respective field — would make the players on that club happy. But how happy? And for how long? In fact, a meta-analysis of the extant literature conducted by California-Riverside’s Sonja Lyubomirsky reveals that, while success in one’s vocation is a source of happiness, it is also just as often a product of happiness. Unfortunate news, that, for the melancholy among us — who, of course, will have regarded their respective failures as inevitable, anyway.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Basically All of Them.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Kansas City at Cleveland | 19:05 ET
Yordano Ventura (172.0 IP, 99 xFIP-, 2.7 WAR) faces Danny Salazar (105.1 IP, 90 xFIP-, 1.6 WAR). Were the members of Cleveland’s 40-man roster to choose collectively a song that might best encapsulate the spirit they must necessarily adopt as a group in their attempt to qualify for the playoffs despite limited odds of doing so, “Livin’ on a Prayer” from Bon Jovi’s 1986 album Slippery When Wet would represent a reasonable option. Which odds are lower, though, one might ask: Cleveland’s actual chances of qualifying for those playoffs, or the probability that tonight’s starter Danny Salazar, born four years later in Santo Domingo, is familiar at all with that song? In either case, it’s both (a) tough and (b) so tough.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Cleveland Radio.

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Episode 486
Dave Cameron is both (a) the managing editor of FanGraphs and (b) the guest on this particular edition of FanGraphs Audio — during which edition he discusses Frank Wren’s departure from Atlanta and his (i.e. Cameron’s, not Frank Wren’s) hypothetical AL MVP ballot.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 39 min play time.)

Read the rest of this entry »

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Los Angeles AL at Oakland | 22:05 ET
C.J. Wilson (169.0 IP, 105 xFIP-, 0.7 WAR) faces Jeff Samardzija (205.2 IP, 83 xFIP-, 3.9 WAR). A newspaper editor, were he so inclined, might very likely attach to a story regarding the former of these pitchers and his interest in advanced metrics — he might attach to such a story the headline C.J. Wilson’s WAR, a reference, that, to the similarly named 2007 film starring Tom Hanks. A noxious weblogger, needing to produce some manner of content in a space like this one and also wishing to make the same reference — but recognizing, simultaneously, that said reference lacks sophistication — that noxious weblogger might very likely craft a brief but elaborate scenario in which a hypothetical newspaper editor has made the reference instead. In either case, they will reap what they have so egregiously sown.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Oakland Radio.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Milwaukee at Pittsburgh | 13:35 ET
Wily Peralta (184.2 IP, 101 xFIP-, 1.0 WAR) faces Vance Worley (96.1 IP, 98 xFIP-, 0.9 WAR). The Brewers entered play yesterday with just a 1% probability of qualifying for the play-in game, odds which increased to ca. 3% following the club’s 1-0 victory over the Pirates on Saturday (box). Did their odds triple, or improve by two mere percentage points? How the reader answers that question is illustrative of his/her view of the world.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Milwaukee Radio*.

*Unless Bob Uecker hasn’t traveled. In which case: Milwaukee Television?

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This edition of FanGraphs’ NERD scores has appeared later than usual, on account of the author’s dog America ate a weird thing and required a visit to the local veterinary clinic. Everyone is healthy now, although the author is also $100 poorer.

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Detroit at Kansas City | 13:05 ET
Max Scherzer (207.1 IP, 82 xFIP-, 5.1 WAR) faces James Shields (214.1 IP, 93 xFIP-, 3.7 WAR). While most assume that Big Game James is actually a sobriquet having been assigned to the Kansas City right-hander for his performances in important contests, the truth is that Big Games James Shields is actually the pitcher’s full given name — and appears on his birth certificate — but that he’s generally gone just by “James” so that friends and acquaintances wouldn’t mistake him for a conceited. In either case, his club would benefit from a strong showing against the Tigers, who lead the Royals by 1.5 games in the Central.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Detroit Radio.

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