Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Miami at Los Angeles AL | 22:05 ET
Nathan Eovaldi (162.0 IP, 103 xFIP-, 2.6 WAR) faces Matt Shoemaker (103.2 IP, 82 xFIP-, 1.4 WAR). As noted recently in these pages by FanGraphs author and freelance mountaineer Jeff Sullivan, the injury to Garrett Richards — in addition to hurting the actual leg of Garrett Richards — also hurt the Angels’ odds of winning the AL West by about seven or eight percentage points. Among the pitchers who remain in Anaheim’s rotation, today’s starter Shoemaker — and not C.J. Wilson or Jered Weaver, for example — has actually recorded the most promising fielding-independent numbers.

Regard, all the pitchers who’ve registered a start for the Angels this season sorted by the park-adjusted xFIPs they’ve produced as a starter:

The highest strikeout and lowest walk rate, is what Shoemaker has recorded. And if his run-prevention figures have been less impressive than his fielding-independent ones, that hasn’t at all been the case over the last month, during which interval he’s recorded a 1.57 ERA in five starts and 34.1 innings.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Los Angeles AL Television.

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Episode 474
Dave Cameron is both (a) the managing editor of FanGraphs and (b) the guest on this particular edition of FanGraphs Audio — during which edition he makes his regular Monday appearance on a Monday.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 37 min play time.)

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
St. Louis at Pittsburgh | 19:05 ET
John Lackey (162.1 IP, 90 xFIP-, 2.5 WAR) faces Francisco Liriano (118.1 IP, 92 xFIP-, 0.9 WAR). After taking two of three from Milwaukee, Pittsburgh’s odds of qualifying for the divisional series increased from about 14% on Friday morning to 21% as of this one (i.e. this morning) — in part because of the Pirates’ own victories, in part because of the Cardinals’ difficulties with Philadelphia. Today those two NL Central clubs face each other, is the point. One will leave the field pleased with the result; the other, disappointed. Which is different than life, insofar as everyone leaves it disappointed with the result.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: St. Louis Radio.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Pittsburgh at Milwaukee | 14:10 ET
Vance Worley (74.0 IP, 96 xFIP-, 0.6 WAR) faces Mike Fiers (28.0 IP, 74 xFIP-, 0.8 WAR). In his first appearance following a 14-strikeout start, the latter produced another excellent line, striking out a quarter of the 24 batters he faced against Toronto while conceding only a single run over 7.0 innings (box). Following the former club’s victory on Saturday, the Pirates and Brewers now possess 25% and 54% odds, respectively, of qualifying for the divisional series.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Milwaukee Radio.

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Episode 473
Kiley McDaniel is both (a) the lead prospect writer for FanGraphs and also (b) the guest on this particular edition of FanGraphs Audio — during which edition he discusses how to discuss prospects.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 43 min play time.)

Read the rest of this entry »

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Pittsburgh at Milwaukee | 19:10 ET
Edinson Volquez (146.0 IP, 115 xFIP-, 0.2 WAR) faces Wily Peralta (157.0 IP, 98 xFIP-, 1.0 WAR). While at least two of the clubs involved would disagree, the best sort of thing that can happen at the moment in the NL Central — to the end of Maximum Pleasure, that is — is what happened last night, on which night Pittsburgh defeated Milwaukee while St. Louis also lost.

Regard, the effect on the odds of qualifying for the divisional series for each of the three relevant clubs before and after Friday’s games (in order of current place in division):

After entering the day 55 points behind the Cardinals, the Pirates exited it (i.e. that same day) trailing by only about 45 points.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Milwaukee Radio.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Pittsburgh at Milwaukee | 20:10 ET
Jeff Locke (91.2 IP, 96 xFIP-, 0.4 WAR) faces Yovani Gallardo (154.2 IP, 96 xFIP-, 1.7 WAR). Owing to Pittsburgh’s recent series of losses, the identity of the NL Central champion this season appears to be a matter for Milwaukee and St. Louis to settle between themselves: indeed, as of Friday, there’s a ca. 95% chance that one of the latter two clubs will win the division. The Pirates’ postseason odds remain something better than immaterial, however — which is more than one can say of the author’s dignity, who just minutes ago exited the front door of his apartment holding a dog that was in the act of evacuating its bowels.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Milwaukee Radio.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
San Francisco at Chicago NL | 20:05 ET*
Madison Bumgarner (169.0 IP, 81 xFIP-, 3.0 WAR) faces Travis Wood (144.1 IP, 123 xFIP-, 1.2 WAR). Today’s games don’t scale the heights of intrigue like some recent contests have. In this case, however, one finds a Giants club that is among the closest of all major-league clubs to possessing exactly 50% odds of qualifying for the divisional series. As for the Chicagos, their virtues at the moment are less conspicuous. That said, very powerful infield prospect Javier Baez is likely to recorded four or five plate appearances, which means four or five opportunities for him to demonstrate his strong strength.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Basically Any of Them.

*The author, an idiot, originally assigned Detroit left-hander David Price to his former team, thus creating a matchup of Tampa Bay at Tampa Bay. The corrected version reveals that the Tigers and Rays’ game is actually today’s most highly rated.

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The Fringe Five is a weekly regular-season exercise, introduced last April by the present author, wherein that same ridiculous author utilizes regressed stats, scouting reports, and also his own heart to identify and/or continue monitoring the most compelling fringe prospects in all of baseball.

Central to the exercise, of course, is a definition of the word fringe, a term which possesses different connotations for different sorts of readers. For the purposes of the column this year, a fringe prospect (and therefore one eligible for inclusion in the Five) is any rookie-eligible player at High-A or above both (a) absent from all of three notable preseason top-100 prospect lists* and also (b) not currently playing in the majors. Players appearing on the midseason prospect lists produced by those same notable sources or, otherwise, selected in the first round of the current season’s amateur draft will also be excluded from eligibility.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Atlanta at Pittsburgh | 19:05 ET
Alex Wood (123.0 IP, 90 xFIP-, 1.5 WAR) faces Gerrit Cole (85.2 IP, 96 xFIP-, 0.7 WAR). Of some note regarding these two: they’re the same age (23), have recorded the same precise park-adjusted xFIP (88 xFIP-) and WAR (3.1), and have done all that in almost the same precise number of major-league innings (200.2 and 203.0, respectively).

Regard, those figures (and others) rendered in table form:

Of some other note regarding these two, as well: while the former (i.e. Wood) was omitted from most (all?) top-100 prospect lists, the latter generally occupied a place among the top-10 players on those same lists in both 2012 and -13. What ought one to conclude from this? That our painful labors are unnecessary and fruitless? No. Rather, one should enjoy him- or herself watching this game, which features two clubs that possess declining, but still real, odds of qualifying for playoffs.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Atlanta Radio.

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