Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
San Francisco at Miami | 19:10 ET
Madison Bumgarner (127.0 IP, 82 xFIP-, 2.1 WAR) faces Nathan Eovaldi (119.2 IP, 106 xFIP-, 2.0 WAR). The pleasures of the former are nearly, if not entirely, conspicuous. Regarding the latter, however, one finds that he currently sits third among 94 qualified pitchers by average fastball velocity (95.7 mph) while also throwing strikes at a rate (66.4%) about a standard deviation better than league average, as well. By way of reference, here are some figures produced by starters who’ve recorded both fastball velocities and strike rates at least a standard deviation better than the mean: 90 xFIP-, 101 ERA-. And among those who lack that distinction: 106 xFIP-, 110 ERA-. All things being equal, not surprisingly, throwing hard strikes is of some benefit to the end of run prevention.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: San Francisco Radio or Television.

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The Fringe Five is a weekly regular-season exercise, introduced last April by the present author, wherein that same ridiculous author utilizes regressed stats, scouting reports, and also his own heart to identify and/or continue monitoring the most compelling fringe prospects in all of baseball.

Central to the exercise, of course, is a definition of the word fringe, a term which possesses different connotations for different sorts of readers. For the purposes of the column this year, a fringe prospect (and therefore one eligible for inclusion in the Five) is any rookie-eligible player at High-A or above both (a) absent from all of three notable preseason top-100 prospect lists* and also (b) not currently playing in the majors. Players appearing on the midseason prospect lists produced by those same notable sources or, otherwise, selected in the first round of the current season’s amateur draft will also be excluded from eligibility.

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Tommy La Stella doesn’t have the lowest isolated-power figure of the 310 batters to have compiled 150-plus plate appearances this season. Indeed, he has the 19th-lowest. What distinguishes La Stella from the 18 players above him on that particular laggardboard, however, is that La Stella has also recorded a park-adjusted batting line above league average. La Stella’s ability to draw walks (he has a 10.8% walk rate) while limiting strikeouts (and 11.4% strikeout rate) — plus the influence of a probably fortunate .333 BABIP — have all conspired to produce a 107 wRC+ over 176 PAs.

Nor is any of this unexpected, really. Over parts of four minor-league seasons, La Stella recorded about a third more walks than strikeouts. This past March, both Steamer and ZiPS projected La Stella to produce an above-average park-adjusted offensive line. Right now, in mid-July, both Steamer and ZiPS project La Stella to produce an above-average park-adjusted batting line for the rest of the season.

The utility of a player with minimal power will always be a concern. What La Stella’s first 40-plus games as a major-leaguer suggest, however, is that, given sufficiently competent plate-discipline skills, a batter can render himself useful despite an almost total absence of power.

In fact, La Stella has produced so few extra-base hits that a sufficiently motivated weblogger could theoretically compose an entire post featuring animated GIFs of those same extra-base hits without unduly taxing either the relevant site’s server or a reader’s capacity to load that post comfortably.

As I say, one could theoretically do that. One could also actually do it, as well — in fact, has actually done it, today and here.

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Episode 462
Dave Cameron is both (a) the managing editor of FanGraphs and (b) the guest on this particular edition of FanGraphs Audio — during which edition he meditates on the relative trade values of Paris versus Berlin, for example.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 43 min play time.)

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It is now a True Fact of History that the Futures Game — which annual contest features the most notable prospects within all of baseball — took place yesterday (Sunday) in Minneapolis, Minnesota. There are a likely number of ways in which one could speak about the game intelligently. The author is prepared to utilize close to zero of them.

No, what I’ve done instead is to hide within that safest of spaces — i.e. the spreadsheets facilitated by my personal edition of Microsoft Excel.

On a recent edition of FanGraphs Audio, managing editor Dave Cameron and I briefly revisited a post written for these pages by Tom Tango in 2011 on the topic of pitching game scores and which version (of the four he introduces) might best represent a pitcher’s single-game performance.

I have no intention of weighing in, specifically, on which of the four really does best represent a player’s performance in a game. As a means to further acquainting ourselves with certain prospects, however, I’ve calculated game scores for every pitchers and hitter who appeared in yesterday’s contest.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Toronto at Tampa Bay | 13:40 ET
R.A. Dickey (119.0 IP, 109 xFIP-, 0.9 WAR) faces David Price (139.2 IP, 69 xFIP-, 2.8 WAR). The former has recorded the second-fastest working pace among 95 qualified pitchers; the latter, the absolute slowest. To suggest that this observation constitutes grounds for a “stirring narrative,” however, would probably represent an instance of overstatement.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Toronto Radio.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Washington at Philadelphia | 19:10 ET
Stephen Strasburg (119.1 IP, 68 xFIP-, 2.7 WAR) faces Cole Hamels (100.1 IP, 89 xFIP-, 1.9 WAR). The latter has prevented runs at a more characteristic rate over his late two appearances. After entering his July 1st start with a 2.63 xFIP and 3.70 ERA, Strasburg has conceded only three earned (and overall) runs over his last 14.2 innings — which is to say, a mark more similar to the latter and not the former of the aforementioned figures.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Washington Radio.

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Episode 461
Ben Badler (@BenBadler) writes for Baseball America, for which publication he provides all manner of prospect-related coverage, with a decided emphasis on the international market. He’s also the guest on this edition of FanGraphs Audio

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 37 min play time.)

Read the rest of this entry »

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Oakland at Seattle | 22:10 ET
Jeff Samardzija (115.0 IP, 86 xFIP-, 2.4 WAR) faces Felix Hernandez (136.1 IP, 62 xFIP-, 5.1 WAR). One notes, with regard to the latter, that his most recent start — over which he produced an 8:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio and 55% ground-ball rate — actually served to slightly increase (i.e. make worse) his park-adjusted xFIP. That’s likely the most economical way of indicating that Hernandez is in the midst of an excellent season. A less economical way would be to paint a large portrait of Hernandez astride a pile of corpses, each corpse representing a batter Hernandez had retired this season.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Seattle Radio.

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The Fringe Five is a weekly regular-season exercise, introduced last April by the present author, wherein that same ridiculous author utilizes regressed stats, scouting reports, and also his own heart to identify and/or continue monitoring the most compelling fringe prospects in all of baseball.

Central to the exercise, of course, is a definition of the word fringe, a term which possesses different connotations for different sorts of readers. For the purposes of the column this year, a fringe prospect (and therefore one eligible for inclusion in the Five) is any rookie-eligible player at High-A or above both (a) absent from all of three notable preseason top-100 prospect lists* and also (b) not currently playing in the majors. Players appearing on the midseason prospect lists produced by those same notable sources or, otherwise, selected in the first round of the current season’s amateur draft will also be excluded from eligibility.

Read the rest of this entry »