The Fringe Five: Baseball’s Most Compelling Fringe Prospects

The Fringe Five is a weekly regular-season exercise, introduced last April by the present author, wherein that same ridiculous author utilizes regressed stats, scouting reports, and also his own heart to identify and/or continue monitoring the most compelling fringe prospects in all of baseball.

Central to the exercise, of course, is a definition of the word fringe, a term which possesses different connotations for different sorts of readers. For the purposes of the column this year, a fringe prospect (and therefore one eligible for inclusion in the Five) is any rookie-eligible player at High-A or above both (a) absent from all of three notable preseason top-100 prospect lists* and also (b) not currently playing in the majors. Players appearing on the midseason prospect lists produced by those same notable sources or, otherwise, selected in the first round of the current season’s amateur draft will also be excluded from eligibility.

*In this case, those produced by Baseball America, ESPN’s Keith Law, and our own Marc Hulet.

In the final analysis, the basic idea is this: to recognize those prospects who are perhaps receiving less notoriety than their talents or performance might otherwise warrant.

*****

Robert Refsnyder, 2B, New York AL (Profile)
Last Wednesday, Marc Hulet noted within these pages that Refsnyder — selected by the Yankees out of Arizona in the fifth round of the 2012 draft — that Refsnyder had produced demonstrably absurd numbers over the previous 10 days. In the week since Hulet’s post, Refsnyder has recorded less impressive numbers — but only because basically all numbers are less impressive than the ones he’d recorded before. Over the last week, Refsnyder has still walked in more than 15% of his 32 plate appearances and added two home runs. There are still concerns regarding his defense, the 23-year-old having converted to second base from right field only just last year; however, there are also indications that Refsnyder has improved at converting the opportunities within his range. Regard: after posting a .943 fielding percentage last year between Class A and High-A, Refsnyder has produced a .977 mark this year — and has made zero errors, actually, in 101 chances at second following his promotion to the Triple-A International League.

Here’s footage from July 6th of Refsnyder not making an error on a line drive:

And continued footage from that same game of Refsnyder not committing an error whilst turning a double play:

David Rollins, LHP, Houston (Profile)
The left-handed Rollins, one of two Houston pitching prospects among the this week’s Five, made his debut here two weeks ago — at which point he had produced (markedly excellent) strikeout and walk rates of 25.8% and 6.5%, respectively, over 38.0 innings. In 13.0 innings over three appearances since then, he’s recorded strikeout and walk rates of 28.0% and 4.0% — which is to say, even better ones. There appear to be no recent scouting reports on the 24-year-old — although, as noted in recent edition of the Five, the Corpus Christi Hooks broadcast noted fastballs at 92-94 mph.

Kyle Smith, RHP, Houston (Profile)
After recording strikeout and walk rates of 27.2% and 10.5%, respectively, over 27.2 innings at High-A Lancaster to begin the season, the right-handed Smith has preserved the latter of those figures (i.e. his strikeout rate) while halving the former in about double the innings (56.2) for Double-A Corpus Christi — with which club he’s a teammate of David Rollins (above). Originally selected out of a Florida high school by Kansas City in the fourth round of the 2011 draft, Smith was traded by the Royals to Houston at last year’s deadline in exchange for Justin Maxwell. While not having entered the season among the league’s more celebrated prospects, he’s generally received praise — like from Marc Hulet, for example, and like from the editors of Baseball America (in their Prospect Handbook) — for his curveball.

Here’s an example of that curveball from his most recent starts — in this case to strike out Starlin Rodriguez:

And that same pitch, inexplicably slower:

Steven Souza, OF, Washington (Profile)
It’s probably a threat to whatever legitimacy this weekly column possesses that Souza hasn’t previously appeared within it. In just over 300 plate appearances with Triple-A Syracuse, he’s produced respectable plate-discipline numbers (12.9% BB and 17.2% K) while also demonstrating a combination of power (in the form of 13 home runs) and speed (insofar as he’s 20-for-25 on stolen-base attempts). If he’s been omitted, it’s because the author weighed perhaps too heavily the number of games Souza was starting in right field at the beginning of the season. Following two brief promotions with the parent club, however, the 25-year-old has recorded a number of appearances in center — including three of them, for example, over his last eight games. Moreover, Souza has one of the most optimistic Steamer projections among rookie-eligible players now, forecasting him to produce ca. 2.5 WAR per ever 600 plate appearances.

Here’s Souza homering on July 1st, courtesy of a minor-league feed with excellent production quality:

Mike Tauchman, OF, Colorado (Profile)
“Will it play in Peoria?” is a figure of speech commonly employed to inquire as to whether a product or idea will appeal to a mainstream demographic. Indeed, Mike Tauchman has played in Peoria — quite a bit, one assumes, owing to how he was not only born there but then also attended Bradley University for four years. Selected out of that same school by the Rockies in the 10th round of last year’s draft, Tauchman produced reasonable, but not inspiring, numbers in the Low-A Northwest League. Since his late-June promotion to High-A Modesto, however, he’ been excellent. Nor is it merely his slash line (.419/.500/.791) which merits attention: he’s recorded a 7:5 walk-to-strikeout ratio and four home runs over his first 50 plate appearances with Modesto. One is cautious, of course, about offensive production in the California League. That said, one also notes that Modesto’s John Thurman Field allows home runs to left-handed batters at only 71% the rate of the average Cal League park.

The Next Five
These are players on whom the author might potentially become fixated.

Andrew Aplin, OF, Houston (Double-A Texas League)
Ben Lively, RHP, Cincinnati (Double-A Southern League)
Seth Mejias-Brean, 3B, Cincinnati (Double-A Southern League)
Dario Pizzano, OF, Seattle (Double-A Southern League)
Rob Zastryzny, LHP, Chicago NL (High-A Florida State League)

Fringe Five Scoreboard
Here are all the players to have appeared among either the Fringe Five (FF) or Next Five (NF) so far this season. For mostly arbitrary reasons, players are assessed three points for each week they’ve appeared among the Fringe Five; a single point, for each week among the Next Five.

Name	Team	POS	FF	NF	PTS
Thomas Shirley	Astros	LHP	6	1	19
Jace Peterson	Padres	SS	5	2	17
Jose Ramirez	Indians	2B	5	1	16
Josh Hader	Astros	LHP	4	2	14
Robert Kral	Padres	C	3	5	14
Seth Mejias-Brean	Reds	3B	4	2	14
Daniel Norris	Blue Jays	LHP	4	0	12
Taylor Cole	Blue Jays	RHP	4	0	12
Ben Lively	Reds	RHP	3	2	11
Billy Mckinney	Athletics	OF	2	5	11
Andrew Aplin	Astros	OF	1	4	7
Bryan Mitchell	Yankees	RHP	1	3	6
Dario Pizzano	Mariners	OF	1	3	6
David Rollins	Astros	LHP	2	0	6
Francellis Montas	White Sox	RHP	2	0	6
Michael Reed	Brewers	OF	2	0	6
Wesley Parsons	Braves	RHP	1	3	6
Aaron West	Astros	RHP	1	2	5
Adam Duvall	Giants	3B	1	2	5
Kyle Smith	Astros	RHP	1	2	5
Luigi Rodriguez	Indians	OF	1	1	4
Robert Refsnyder	Yankees	2B	1	1	4
Shawn Zarraga	Brewers	C	1	1	4
Alexander Claudio	Rangers	LHP	1	0	3
Blake Treinen	Nationals	RHP	1	0	3
Cameron Rupp	Phillies	C	1	0	3
Kyle Hendricks	Cubs	RHP	1	0	3
Marco Gonzales	Cardinals	LHP	1	0	3
Mike Tauchman	Rockies	OF	1	0	3
Ryan Rua	Rangers	3B	1	0	3
Steven Souza	Nationals	OF	1	0	3
Steven Wright	Red Sox	RHP	1	0	3
Tsuyoshi Wada	Cubs	LHP	1	0	3
Brian Johnson	Red Sox	LHP	0	2	2
Chris Taylor	Mariners	SS	0	2	2
Darnell Sweeney	Dodgers	2B/SS	0	2	2
Roberto Perez	Indians	C	0	2	2
Tommy La Stella	Braves	2B	0	2	2
Aaron Blair	D-backs	RHP	0	1	1
Billy Burns	Athletics	OF	0	1	1
Brett Eibner	Royals	OF	0	1	1
Conrad Gregor	Astros	1B	0	1	1
Danny Winkler	Rockies	RHP	0	1	1
Edwar Cabrera	Rangers	LHP	0	1	1
Jesse Winker	Reds	OF	0	1	1
Rob Zastryzny	Cubs	LHP	0	1	1
Stephen Landazuri	Mariners	RHP	0	1	1
Tim Cooney	Cardinals	LHP	0	1	1
Ty Kelly	Mariners	2B/3B	0	1	1
Tyler Goeddel	Rays	3B	0	1	1