Jorge de la Rosa and the Rockies Talent Evaluation Problem
The Rockies 2014 season is essentially over. They stand 39-53, and our Playoff Odds model gives them a 0.1% chance of reaching the postseason. And that’s just a one-tenth-of-one-percent chance of getting to the Wild Card game, where they would be heavy underdogs and likely eliminated after Game 163. As Mike Petriello wrote earlier this week, the Rockies need to seriously think about changing course.
There are good arguments against trading Troy Tulowitzki, however. He’s a superstar signed to one of the most team-friendly contracts in baseball. They can rebuild around Tulo and build a winner while he’s still a productive player. He needs better teammates, but it’s generally easier to find new good role players than it is to develop another MVP-caliber shortstop and sign him to a long term extension for half of his market value.
But the key to building a winner around Troy Tulowitzki is to properly determine which players should be kept, and which players should be replaced. Given the recent rumors, it appears that the Rockies may not have figure that part out yet.
Despite all the Jorge De La Rosa buzz, hearing #Rockies won't deal him without getting a young impact starter back, which is very unlikely
— Jayson Stark (@jaysonst) July 10, 2014
And lest you think this might just be the team playing hard-to-get by planting anonymous sourced items in the media, there’s this on-the-record quote from team owner Dick Monfort:
Q: You don’t anticipate trading Jorge De La Rosa?
Monfort: “No, De La Rosa has pitched great, and he pitches great here. I mean, we are going to do everything we can to keep him here. He’s won our last three.”
Jorge de la Rosa is 33 years old, and a free agent at the end of the year. And despite what the Rockies owner thinks, Jorge de la Rosa has not “pitched great” this year. He has a 113 ERA-, a 112 FIP-, and a 116- xFIP-, making him a below average pitcher by any way you choose to evaluate his performance. His park-adjusted ERA is the same as Jake Peavy‘s, who the Red Sox are openly trying to give away. His park-adjusted FIP is the same as Kevin Correia‘s, who was a scrap-heap free agent signing a couple of years ago. His park-adjusted xFIP is the same as Marco Estrada’s, and he’s about to get thrown out of the Brewers’ rotation.
De la Rosa has pitched well in the past, but even his decently strong 2013 season came with indicators that it wouldn’t continue. Last year, de la Rosa posted an ERA- of 81 and a FIP- of 87, but his xFIP- was 108, as he basically built his entire success around not giving up home runs. For a pitcher in Colorado, that’s a flimsy foundation at best, and not surprisingly, de la Rosa’s home run rate has regressed this year.
There was a time when de la Rosa was actually a good pitcher. From 2008 to 2010, de la Rosa threw 435 innings with an 88 FIP-/90 xFIP-, as he combined a 23% strikeout rate with a 47% groundball rate. But then he blew out his elbow, and he missed most of the 2011 and 2012 seasons while recovering from Tommy John surgery. You can see what has happened to his strikeout rate since the injury.
He still gets his fair share of groundballs, but he’s gone from an above average strikeout pitcher to a below average strikeout pitcher, and he still doesn’t throw enough strikes. That’s not great, especially for an aging pitcher whose stuff is only likely to continue to decline going forward. And his platoon splits suggest that he’s probably best off in relief, where he could dominate left-handers and not get exposed against right-handers.
Currently, de la Rosa could best be described as a below average starting pitcher. He’s never thrown 200 innings in a season — he’s only thrown as many as 150 innings twice, in fact — so you can’t even make the innings-eater argument, or suggest that he’s helping to provide necessary rest for an overworked bullpen. He doesn’t pitch a large quantity of innings, nor does he perform all that well when he is on the mound. And he’s firmly entrenched in the decline-phase of his career. With a couple more years of aging, he probably won’t even be a viable big league starter.
And yet, the Rockies want to do “everything they can to keep him here.” Ken Rosenthal reported that the team will weigh any trade offer against the lost opportunity to make him a Qualifying Offer at the end of the season, fearing that without that leverage, they won’t be able to convince him to re-sign for 2015. The QO is expected to cost about $15 million this winter. Jorge de la Rosa is in no way a $15 million pitcher. He shouldn’t even be considered a candidate for a Qualifying Offer.
This is exactly the kind of player the Rockies don’t need; aging, mediocre, and expensive. Dick Monfort might publicly admit that he doesn’t know why this Rockies team isn’t winning, but I’d suggest that it’s exactly because he think Jorge de la Rosa is the kind of player that they can’t let leave. I understand that it’s hard to get pitchers to come to Colorado, but that challenge shouldn’t make the organization overpay mediocre players simply because they are the mediocre players they already have. Trade for new, cheaper mediocre players who don’t have a choice in where they pitch, and then use the money you’re not paying to guys like de la Rosa to go sign good hitters who would love to play in Colorado.
Clinging to guys like Jorge de la Rosa is why the Rockies are bad. If they want to become un-bad, it’s time for them to take a serious look at their evaluative process, and get better at identifying who can play and who can’t.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
but he has nine WINS
That’s not it here is a list of SP who have 250 IP at home in Rockies 21 year history
1 Aaron Cook 681.1IP 4.65 ERA
2 Jeff Francis 523.2 IP 4.92 ERA
3 Jason Jennings 423 IP 5.04 ERA
4 Ubaldo Jimenez 419.2 IP 3.67 ERA
5 Jorge de la Rosa 399 IP 4.17 ERA
6 Jhoulys Chacin 374.1 IP 4.21 ERA
7 Jason Hammel 267.1IP 4.95 ERA
Chacin’s career may be over with shoulder trouble, 2008-10 Ubaldo isn’t coming back, and since returning from TJ in 2012 JDLR has a 3.19ERA at Coors field not saying they shouldn’t consider it, but De La Rosa has been great at a place where almost nobody has been in 20+ years
yea, his home away splits have been… weird for a few years.
that being said, the point remains: he is below average in total, so if you believe there is some sustainable home cookin’ going on, that must mean that he is god-awful on the road.
It takes greatness to throw anything effectively a mile above sea level. I gotta give the Rox pitchers props.
Though I’m still pissed at Steve Reed for working with Tebow on his delivery. Explains a whole lot.
Kevin Correia signed a 2yr/$10mil deal before the 2013 season.
Agreed. The loss of not trading De La Rosa is trivial compared to the demonstrated inability to effectively evaluate their own players. FREE TULO
Hard for them to fix the talent evaluation system. Dick Monfort probably thinks he’s a great president. He thinks O’Dowd is the best GM in baseball.
Perhaps the lack of oxygen at altitude is why they are struggling so much at this ‘thinking’ stuff.
O’Dowd is not the GM. Bill Geivett is. O’Dowd works only with the minor league guys.
O’Dowd’s job title – Executive Vice President, Chief Baseball Officer
Geivett’s job title – Senior Vice President – Major League Operations
Geivett may well be the de facto GM day-to-day. But by your own statement, if it comes to a player trade (eg JDLR for prospects), then who is going to be judging the value of those offered incoming prospects? Who still has the ear of the President for an overall assessment?
This whole ‘reorganization’ looks like nothing more than an attempt to keep an organization hidebound and insular.
You’re kidding yourself if you think that’s how it actually happens, BaseballGuy
Of note, when Monfort said that JDLR “won our last three games,” he was referring to a 3-18 stretch.
This illustrates everything perfectly.
If product and experience that bad don’t write article!
Outstanding!
Incredibly underrated comment. Nicely done, whoever you are.
What I’m most interested in here is that an owner seems to be driving on-field personnel decisions. I’m obviously making assumptions here, but I think that the business owner of a meatpacking company isn’t usually the first person that you go to for baseball decisions. You would think his business background would have taught him to hire people that are good at things he’s not good at, (evaluating and acquiring talent) and then trust those people to do their job, while he does his job of running the business.
That’s not to say that Dan O’Dowd is necessarily good at his job, just that it looks like the CEO is way too involved in decisions that aren’t his own specialty.
Oh, baseball guy up above noted that Bill Geivett is actually the GM now – forgot that. No idea if he’s good at his job either.
“You would think his business background would have taught him to hire people that are good at things he’s not good at, (evaluating and acquiring talent) and then trust those people to do their job, while he does his job of running the business.”
The ghosts of Steinbrenner and Finley would like a word with you.
This is probably his fantasy — literally. Maybe this is his version of fantasy baseball. He’s always wanted to be the guy to put together a legendary world-champion baseball team, and this is his attempt.
I have to admit that while not logical and I’d stop after it failed, if I owned an MLB team I would so want to try and put it together myself.
If you’re writing an article about the Rockies in 2014 and you don’t mention injuries, you’re doing it wrong. When Chris Capuano comes up in the next couple weeks, he’ll be their 14th starter. They have seven on the DL. Every team team in baseball would have an awful rotation under those circumstances. And their awful June came with three of their four best position players hurt. If they have a talent evaluation problem, it’s not being able to scope out injury prone guys, which I guess could be legit.
Rockies are, and always were this year, about a 500 team that got destroyed by a massive injury wave. Similarly to the Rangers being a contender that got destroyed by injuries. Nothing else going on.
Go read this: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/playing-the-regression-game-the-right-way/
Playing the regression game and saying “well, if everything had gone right, they’d be good” is not very useful. Things like what Monfort says aren’t the most comforting if you want to hope for things to always turn out positive.
I don’t have a problem playing with hypotheticals, but you have to look at the truth and look both ways.
The Rockies lost CarGo and that is a big hit. You had to expect Cuddyer to get and injuried and play mediocre when he did play. Anderson having another freak injury is a big hit, but honestly what did you expect. If we want to play the regression game, we should probably assume Lyles,Chacin, and Chatwood are slightly above replacement level. But Tulo hasn’t been injured. Blackmon and Dickerson have played out of their mind.
If everything went right, maybe the Rockies would be sitting at .500, but everything hasn’t gone wrong. The season is playing out for them like we expected.
I picked the Padres for a dark horse NL wild card because they were a good team if everything went right. Nearly everyone has hit the DL. Nearly everyone has under-performed. But honestly? I should have expected that.
The Reds lost Latos, Votto, BP, Chapman, Bruce, and Mesoraco this year. They aren’t a crapfest like the Rockies.
@M W yeah, but most of those players are position players, and there have been a few of them healthy at any given point. The Rockies have already trotted out 13 different starting pitchers, and are about to bring up their 14th in Capuano (as has already been mentioned.) The Reds have spread their injuries across the board, whereas the Rockies have lost almost 3 rotations’ worth of starters in half a year, *plus* 3 top offensive contributors.
Except that the Rangers have already signaled (more than two weeks ago) that they are sellers this year because of that – Cotts, Frasor, Rios, Soria, Andrus, etc. Apparently open to trading anyone except Beltre and Darvish. In order to start again next year.
The Rockies are still paralyzed. Because who knows. Open to trading virtually no one on the 25 man roster. And they may be buyers too??!? So that next year nothing changes except that other bad teams get better and that will surprise the Rockies too.
Well luckily he didn’t write an article about the Rockies in 2014 and instead just wrote an article about the Rockies misevaluation of Jorge de la Rosa and the significant of that misevaluation. So I guess he did it right.
Unless you are arguing that because the Rockies have been injured this year, they should make JdlR a qualifying offer of $15 this offseason?
If you didn’t make a typo and that was actually the QO, he might be onto something
“their awful June came with three of their four best position players hurt. ”
Dickerson wasn’t hurt in June.
Keep telling yourself that. You can take it and $1.50 and buy a coke
Wait, are you fellas talking about these Rockies? http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon-heyman/24614281/rockies-unlikely-to-trade-cuddyer-will-try-to-re-sign-him-in-offseason
Keeping Cuddyer is FAR worse than keeping Jorge de la Rosa. At the very least, JDLR would be guaranteed a spot in the rotation if he stays. If the Rockies re-sign Cuddyer, it’s totally unclear where he would even play. The 2015 outfield should look like this: Corey Dickerson, LF; Charlie Blackmon/Drew Stubbs or Brandon Barnes, CF; Carlos Gonzalez, RF. Cuddyer can also play first, but Morneau is signed through next year as well. It’s unclear what would happen to Kyle Parker as well. He can spell Dickerson, CarGo, and Morneau, but with Cuddyer around the Rockies’ 2010 draft pick becomes redundant.
Platoon with Morneau and other guys to give a rest?
I also question the desire to re-sign Cuddyer. He’s a fan favorite, locker room leader, and he just won the batting title, but his value for what he’s going to offer at this point in his career is just not worth it. With the Rockies’ outfield depth (don’t forget David Dahl is knocking on the door in addition to Parker,) they need to cut ties with Cuddy. If he wasn’t injured right now, he should have been a prime trade candidate.
De La Rosa could be a decent pitcher but a pitcher ruined by Coors/ the Rockies. He throws a quality fastball that hits 95MPH, that doesn’t get a ton of whiffs, but generates grounders. He throws a above average slider by whiffs and an above average splitter. He also stopped throw his curve after a a few bad seasons, despite also being an above average pitch by whiffs.
So we are looking at a lefty with a few above average pitches and bad numbers. I think maybe we would be better off if the Rockies sent him somewhere to iron out his problems.
The Rockies don’t have control of Rubby De La Rosa to trade him away.
Jorge, not Rubby.
This is why we can’t just rely on scouting reports – filled with “above average quality” soundbites that make every player sound great. Which every player is, when compared to the average human. Problem is, they aren’t playing against average humans. They all have a potential star breakout hiding in them somewhere, but that doesn’t mean you need to hoard every player with promise.
You admit as much, but I think it’s disingenuous to pretend that JDLR isn’t currently a decent pitcher (he is), or that his only problem is that he pitches for the Rockies. (it isn’t) He’s aging (33 years old isn’t normally an age where you “iron out problems”) – and his greatest value to the Rockies is going to be in the form of a prospect they trade for.
I agree. He isn’t going to be a success at Coors and has no real value to the Rockies.
I’d love to see him head to a team and park where he maybe can fix some things. I know 33 isn’t an ideal time to make adjustments, but he is still a 33 year old that can hit 95 and has a few quality pitches and that is worth taking a chance on. I probably would.
At the least I think De La Rosa could be a very good reliever. A lefty that could probably pump his velocity up out of the pen and some has quality secondary stuff is a thing a lot of teams need. But the Rockies need to understand that. A team isn’t looking for a reclamation project with 1/2 season left on his contract…they want a hard throwing LOOGY and that is worth a B level prospect.
“He isn’t going to be a success at Coors”
Actually, he pitches significantly better at Coors than anywhere else. This year his home ERA is 3.73 compared to 5.87 on the road in nearly the same number of innings. Last year the split was 2.76/4.19.
He’s arguably had more success at Coors than any other pitcher who’s ever thrown a substantial number of innings there. I’m pretty sure that’s what Monfort means when he’s says JDLR has pitched well.
Never mind De La Rosa – can Tulo play in the outfield?
The Rockies need him to be able to play eight positions, and maybe start, too.
With two rotation anchors coming soon, the Rox should hold the fort. They’ll be in good shape soon. If anything, consider trading Cargo… not Tulo.
Apparently you aren’t well versed on the concept of selling high and low. Tulo would fetch more than nearly any player in baseball that isn’t in the Trout/Harper/Machado..etc grouping. CarGo’s value is the lowest it has been since 2008.
I don’t agree regarding Cargo. He’s had the finger issue this year. A year ago he was the toast of the NL. I don’t think this random injury has destroyed his value. And he’s signed for the next 3 yrs. He’s got plenty of value.
Conversely, the Rox would never get equal value for Tulo, who with Trout is the most talented player in the sport. If they can’t win with Tulo, the franchise may as well fold up altogether.
I say trade Tulo to the A’s for the entire rest of the A’s “overvalued” farm system (Billy clearly has no use for it anyway) and move Lowrie to second. That’ll give the A’s probably another one to two percent increase in their World Series championship chances.
That ax ain’t sharp enough yet?
“I don’t hold grudges. My father held grudges…I’ll never forgive him for that.”
-Pierce Hawthorne
In the same article, Monfort suggested the team might be interested in adding, rather than trading away, a starting pitcher at the deadline…
Tulo to the Cardinals for Jhonny Peralta, a young pitcher and another Minor Leaguer.
Peralta gives the Rockies a power hitting short stop and also offsets some of Tulo’s salary. Depending on the pitcher, they could either be used this year so as to get adjusted to playing in Colorado or they could be kept in the Minors to get more seasoning and experience.
not a chance
In 1999, the Mariners offered Ken Griffey Jr. a $140 million dollar contract which would have kept him in Seattle and would have made him one of, if not the, highest paid players in MLB. He rejected it.
He then said he would like to be traded. The Mariners had a deal in place with the Mets and KGJ rejected it (10 and 5 rights). He then DEMANDED a trade to Cincinnati and Cincinnati only. The Mariners were over a barrel.
They were going to get less from the Reds than what they would have from the Mets but if they didn’t trade him, they knew KGJ could/would be a problem in the clubhouse. SO, instead of trying to persuade him to accept the trade to the Mets, they went ahead and traded him to the Reds for a lesser amount of talent.
KGJ then signed a $116 million dollar contract ($24 million less than what the Mariners had offered).
The point is, if Tulo is TIRED of losing and truly wants out of Coloradeo, he CAN force a trade and the Rockies might HAVE to accept an offer like the trade I proposed IF Tulo just wants to play for the Cardinals…..
Good thing there’s absolutely zero reason to think that will happen, then.
No, actually he can’t. Griffey was headed for free agency. Tulo is under contract until the next decade.
They can keep him until 2021 if they wish, and if Tulo doesn’t like it, he can retire.
In any case, the trade Seattle made with Cincy that sent Griffey out of town wasn’t a bad trade for them, because they got 17.1 bWAR from Mike Cameron in the next four years. The Reds got 20.1 in nine years of Griffey.
Somewhat off topic, I was looking through the 2010 trade value just for laughs and to see how well it aged, and Tulo’s entry caught my eye. There’s mention that he could void his contract if traded, though at the time he still then had two arb years left. Has this provision expired now that he’s out of the arb period? I can’t think of any mention of it anywhere in all the Tulo trade talk, so it must be expired, right? Anyone know? Otherwise his trade value is drastically reduced, as he’d be an idiot not to make himself a free agent after this season if it’s possible. Assuming basic health, obviously.
He cannot void this contract, but he does get a full NTC if traded
Anybody who publicly speaks will always over-hype every player in that clubhouse. People on the media only want to hear good things about players, so I doubt that those statements give a true image of the Rockies talent evaluation.
Agreed. You don’t start the process of shopping a player by saying “He’s not very good and we’ll take anything we can get for him.”
Finally someone has the guts to tell the truth about JLDR. This guy is a disaster waiting to happen, trade him, Chacin, and Cuddyer for some prospects. Thank You someone sees the light.