Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. Greatest Home-Runs Seasons Relative to League
2. Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Greatest Home-Runs Seasons Relative to League
Introduction
After his home run this weekend at Yankee Stadium, Baltimore first baseman Chris Davis now has 33 for the season. With over half the season complete, it would appear as though Davis has a slight probability of surpassing the 61-home-run threshold set by Roger Maris in 1961 and an almost non-extant probability of reaching Barry Bonds‘ record of 73, set in 2001.

With regard to Davis, however, it’s entirely possible that some readers will credit his accomplishments more subtantially than Bonds’ — or Mark McGwire‘s or Sammy Sosa’s, etc. — because Davis’ powerful first half has occurred during an era in which Major League Baseball is testing for certain performance-enhancing drugs. While the author has absolutely no intention of examining to what degree PEDs do or don’t actually enhance performance, concerns about PEDs do reveal an actually interesting point — namely, the degree to which certain eras have signature (some higher, some lower) home-run rates. Indeed, it might be best were we to celebrate those players not with the highest absolute home-run totals, but those with the best home-run rates relative to their peers.

With a view to examining which players have produced the most impressive home-run seasons relative to their peers, the author has first identified the league-average home-run rates (home runs per at-bat, and not plate appearance, for reasons that are mentioned below) for every season since 1876. The author has then divided every qualified player’s seasonal home-run rates (since 1876, as well) by the relevant league-average rate for that year. The result is an index stat, HR+, which measure home-run rate relative to league average, where a higher figure is better.

A pair of tables below contain the relevant results.

Read the rest of this entry »

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. CoreyKluberSociety in Bad Decline
2. Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

CoreyKluberSociety in Bad Decline
Regarding the Title of This Post
In 1996, very talented fiction writer George Saunders released his first book, CivilWarLand in Bad Decline, which book was described that same year in a New York Times review by influential novelist Jay McInerney as the “most accomplished short-story debut since Barry Hannah’s Airships” and, in a postcard sent by Carson Cistulli to Saunders himself three summers later, as “better than Nintendo.”

Read the rest of this entry »

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. Adjusted Strikeout Totals for Every Friday Starter
2. Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Adjusted Strikeout Totals for Every Friday Starter
Introduction
Despite allowing four runs, Texas right-hander Nick Tepesch also struck out nine of the 22 — or, about 41% — of the batters he faced on Friday, the best rate among all of the evening’s 30 starting pitchers. That he did it against the Houston Astros, however — i.e. the club whose batters strike out more often than any other club’s — assuredly renders the feat less impressive.

“How much less impressive?” is a question the author more or less asked himself on Saturday morning — and the one he attempted to answer slightly less early on Saturday morning.

The results of the attempt are published below. What the author has done is to identify the strikeout rate for each team relative to league average. That figure is represented as an index stat, Opp K+, where a lower figure signifies a lower team strikeout rate relative to league average. The author has then divided every pitcher’s strikeout rate from Friday’s game by Opp K+, the result of which is an adjusted strikeout rate for the pitcher, or Adj Pit K%.

Read the rest of this entry »

Episode 357
Dayn Perry is a contributor to CBS Sports’ Eye on Baseball and the author of three books, now — one of them serviceable and one of them, against all odds, something more than serviceable. He’s also the guest on this edition of FanGraphs Audio.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 58 min play time.)

Read the rest of this entry »

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. SCOUT Leaderboards for Rookie-Level Leagues
2. Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

SCOUT Leaderboards for Rookie-Level Leagues
A Brief Introduction
Featured in this edition of the Notes are the SCOUT leaderboards for rookie-level leagues. Briefly stated, SCOUT represents an attempt to use our knowledge of certain metrics, and at what sample sizes they become reliable, to measure run production/prevention in instances where small samples are all that’s available. Stated less briefly, is the explanation available here.

Other recent editions: Triple-A / Double-A / High-A / Class A / Low-A.

Read the rest of this entry »

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. Best and Worst Base-Stealers, By One Measure
2. Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Best and Worst Base-Stealers, By One Measure
Introduction
With regard to the art and science of base-stealing — and assessing its best and worst practitioners — it’s fair to say that there are two main elements one must consider. First, a runner must steal bases efficiently per attempt. Some combination of empirical study and also Pete Palmer reveal that, depending on the run environment of the league or park or whatever, a runner must generally be successful on something like two-thirds or three-quarters of his stolen-base attempts just to break even in terms of runs gained or lost.

Moreover, to be regarded as a legitimate base-stealing threat, a runner must also attempt to steal rather frequently per stolen-base opportunity. It’s fair to say that, all things being equal, two runners who’ve finished the season 5-for-5 on stolen-base attempts have been equally valuable in terms of runs produced from stolen bases. However, if the former player did so in 100 opportunities while the latter did it in just 20, then surely the latter must be regarded as the more impressive base-stealer.

To account both for the efficiency and frequency of 2013’s base-stealers, the author has first calculated every major leaguer’s stolen-base runs using the current linear-weight values both for stolen bases and caught stealing, and then divided that figure by stolen-base opportunities (i.e. plate appearances during which a runner is on first or second with the next base open). Finally, the author has multiplied that result by 100, such that one is left with stolen-base runs per 100 stolen-base opportunities.

The results of those calculations are available below.

Read the rest of this entry »

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. SCOUT Leaderboards for Low-A
2. Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

SCOUT Leaderboards for Low-A
A Brief Introduction
Featured in this edition of the Notes are the SCOUT leaderboards for Low-A. Briefly stated, SCOUT represents an attempt to use our knowledge of certain metrics, and at what sample sizes they become reliable, to measure run production/prevention in instances where small samples are all that’s available. Stated less briefly, is the explanation available here.

Other recent editions: Triple-A / Double-A / High-A / Class A.

Read the rest of this entry »

The Fringe Five is a weekly exercise (introduced in April) wherein the author utilizes regressed stats, scouting reports, and also his own heart to identify and/or continue monitoring the most compelling fringe prospects in all of baseball.

Central to this exercise, of course, is a definition of the word fringe. The author recognizes that the word certainly has different connotations to different sorts of readers. For the purposes of this column, however — and for reasons discussed more thoroughly in last week’s edition of the Five — the author has considered eligible for the Five any prospect who was absent from all of three notable preseason top-100 prospect lists.

This week, the reader will find that two players retain their place this week among the Five: well-educated Mets pitching prospect Matthew Bowman and young Philadelphia third baseman, the sort of recently promoted Maikel Franco.

Departing from the Five proper — largely because the author is restless and dumb — are diminutive batsman, St. Louis outfield prospect Mike O’Neill, promising Cleveland right-hander Danny Salazar; and two-true-outcome shortstop, Washington’s Zach Walters.

Replacing that triumvirate are the rather young, but offensively advanced, Wilmer Flores of the Mets system; Atlanta reliever-turned-quite-effective-starter Cody Martin; and White Sox shortstop or second-base or third-base prospect Marcus Semien.

Now, here are this week’s Fringe Five:

Matthew Bowman, RHP, New York NL (Profile)
After consecutive appearances among the Fringe Five, Bowman produced another excellent start this past week, recording a 7:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio against 26 batters over 8.0 innings in a Florida State League game versus St. Louis affiliate Palm Beach (box). Those figures should add to the already excellent line he’s produced, which — as of last Wednesday, at least — has placed him third among all High-A starters by SCOUT, the author’s flawed and proprietary metric. Unmentioned in previous editions of the Five is Bowman’s capacity for inducing ground balls, as well: both Minor League Central and StatCorner suggest that’s recorded grounders on more than 60% of batted balls.

Read the rest of this entry »

Episode 356
Outfielder and recent Vanderbilt alumnus Connor Harrell was the Detroit Tigers’ seventh-round pick in the most recent amateur draft. He’s also the guest on this edition of FanGraphs Audio.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 12 min play time.)

Read the rest of this entry »

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. The Corey Kluber Society Remains Undaunted
2. Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

The Corey Kluber Society Remains Undaunted
The Purpose of This Post
The purpose of this post is to announce both (a) a meeting tonight (Tuesday) of the Corey Kluber Society, at 8:10pm ET, and also (b) that the members of the aforementioned Society remain undaunted by Kluber’s last two starts, despite how he’s allowed 10 runs in 10.1 innings.

Read the rest of this entry »