Daily Notes: SCOUT Leaderboards for Rookie-Level Leagues
Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.
1. SCOUT Leaderboards for Rookie-Level Leagues
2. Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
3. Today’s Complete Schedule
SCOUT Leaderboards for Rookie-Level Leagues
A Brief Introduction
Featured in this edition of the Notes are the SCOUT leaderboards for rookie-level leagues. Briefly stated, SCOUT represents an attempt to use our knowledge of certain metrics, and at what sample sizes they become reliable, to measure run production/prevention in instances where small samples are all that’s available. Stated less briefly, is the explanation available here.
Other recent editions: Triple-A / Double-A / High-A / Class A / Low-A.
SCOUT Leaderboard: Rookie-Level Hitters (Overall)
Below is the current SCOUT batting leaderboard for all Rookie-level hitters. SCOUT+ combines regressed home-run, walk, and strikeout rates in a FIP-like equation to produce a result not unlike wRC+, where 100 is league average and above 100 is above average. Note that players are compared not to all Rookie-level hitters, but to those in their respective league, and then combined afterward for the sake of this leaderboard. Note also that xHR%, xBB%, and xK% stand for expected home run, walk, and strikeout rate, respectively.
| Player | Team | League | Age | PA | HR | BB | K | xHR% | xBB% | xK% | SCOUT+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Loveless | Blue Jays (R) | Appy | 20 | 41 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 1.9% | 9.7% | 18.3% | 118 |
| Tanner Mathis | Astros (R) | Appy | 22 | 46 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 1.2% | 11.4% | 16.9% | 118 |
| James McDonald | Dodgers (R) | AZL | 21 | 49 | 1 | 11 | 7 | 1.1% | 12.2% | 19.7% | 117 |
| Cal Towey | Angels (R) | Pio | 23 | 56 | 1 | 13 | 8 | 1.7% | 12.8% | 18.2% | 117 |
| Gosuke Katoh | Yankees (R) | GCL | 18 | 24 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1.6% | 9.1% | 20.7% | 116 |
| Jose Briceno | Rockies (R) | Pio | 20 | 51 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 3.1% | 7.5% | 19.6% | 115 |
| Eric Arce | Blue Jays (R) | Appy | 21 | 32 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 2.2% | 10.5% | 23.6% | 114 |
| David Denson | Brewers (R) | AZL | 17 | 41 | 2 | 11 | 12 | 1.5% | 12.6% | 24.3% | 114 |
| Phillip Ervin | Reds (R) | Pio | 20 | 54 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 2.1% | 9.9% | 17.9% | 113 |
| Travis Flores | Rays (R) | Appy | 20 | 38 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 2.2% | 8.8% | 21.4% | 113 |
SCOUT Leaderboard: Rookie-Level Hitters (Age 20 and Under)
Here are the top-10 batters from Rookie-level leagues who might still, because of their age, be considered prospects — again, as determined by the methodology explained above.
| Player | Team | League | Age | PA | HR | BB | K | xHR% | xBB% | xK% | SCOUT+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Loveless | Blue Jays (R) | Appy | 20 | 41 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 1.9% | 9.7% | 18.3% | 118 |
| Gosuke Katoh | Yankees (R) | GCL | 18 | 24 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1.6% | 9.1% | 20.7% | 116 |
| Jose Briceno | Rockies (R) | Pio | 20 | 51 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 3.1% | 7.5% | 19.6% | 115 |
| David Denson | Brewers (R) | AZL | 17 | 41 | 2 | 11 | 12 | 1.5% | 12.6% | 24.3% | 114 |
| Phillip Ervin | Reds (R) | Pio | 20 | 54 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 2.1% | 9.9% | 17.9% | 113 |
| Travis Flores | Rays (R) | Appy | 20 | 38 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 2.2% | 8.8% | 21.4% | 113 |
| Luis Mendez | Rangers (R) | AZL | 20 | 57 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 1.1% | 10.4% | 19.2% | 113 |
| Ryan Mcmahon | Rockies (R) | Pio | 18 | 56 | 2 | 10 | 11 | 2.1% | 11.3% | 20.2% | 113 |
| Jose Urena | Padres (R) | AZL | 18 | 51 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 1.8% | 10.1% | 23.4% | 112 |
| Jose Ortiz | Reds (R) | Pio | 19 | 27 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 2.6% | 8.6% | 19.6% | 112 |
SCOUT Leaderboard: Rookie-Level Pitchers (Overall)
Below is the current SCOUT pitching leaderboard for all Rookie-level leagues. SCOUT- combines regressed strikeout and walk rates in a kwERA-like equation to produce a number not unlike ERA-, where 100 is league average and below 100 is better than average. Note that players are compared not to all Rookie-level pitchers, but to those in their respective league, and then combined afterward for the sake of this leaderboard. Note also that xK% and xBB% stand for expected strikeout and walk rate, respectively.
| Player | Team | League | Age | G | GS | IP | TBF | K | BB | xK% | xBB% | SCOUT- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edwin Diaz | Mariners (R) | Appy | 19 | 3 | 3 | 16.0 | 58 | 21 | 2 | 27.7% | 7.8% | 80 |
| Zebulon Sneed | Royals (R) | Pio | 22 | 4 | 0 | 11.0 | 44 | 19 | 2 | 27.2% | 8.4% | 82 |
| Marcos Molina | Mets (R) | GCL | 18 | 2 | 0 | 8.1 | 34 | 15 | 2 | 27.0% | 8.3% | 83 |
| Juan Oramas | Padres (R) | AZL | 23 | 2 | 2 | 7.0 | 30 | 15 | 2 | 27.9% | 8.8% | 84 |
| Daniel Mcgrath | Red Sox (R) | GCL | 18 | 2 | 2 | 10.0 | 33 | 14 | 1 | 26.5% | 8.1% | 85 |
| Sam Bragg | Athletics (R) | AZL | 20 | 4 | 0 | 7.1 | 27 | 14 | 2 | 27.7% | 8.8% | 85 |
| Jacob Faria | Rays (R) | Appy | 19 | 2 | 2 | 10.0 | 35 | 14 | 1 | 26.5% | 8.0% | 85 |
| Yorman Landa | Twins (R) | Appy | 19 | 2 | 2 | 10.0 | 39 | 15 | 2 | 26.6% | 8.1% | 85 |
| Phillip Kish | Blue Jays (R) | GCL | 23 | 3 | 0 | 5.2 | 20 | 11 | 1 | 26.4% | 8.3% | 85 |
| Jose Samayoa | Rangers (R) | AZL | 23 | 3 | 3 | 8.0 | 32 | 14 | 1 | 26.9% | 8.6% | 86 |
SCOUT Leaderboard: Rookie-Level Pitchers (Starters Only)
Here are the top-10 pitchers in Rookie-level leagues who have made at least half of their appearances as starts — again, as determined by the methodology explained above.
| Player | Team | League | Age | G | GS | IP | TBF | K | BB | xK% | xBB% | SCOUT- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edwin Diaz | Mariners (R) | Appy | 19 | 3 | 3 | 16.0 | 58 | 21 | 2 | 27.7% | 7.8% | 80 |
| Juan Oramas | Padres (R) | AZL | 23 | 2 | 2 | 7.0 | 30 | 15 | 2 | 27.9% | 8.8% | 84 |
| Daniel Mcgrath | Red Sox (R) | GCL | 18 | 2 | 2 | 10.0 | 33 | 14 | 1 | 26.5% | 8.1% | 85 |
| Jacob Faria | Rays (R) | Appy | 19 | 2 | 2 | 10.0 | 35 | 14 | 1 | 26.5% | 8.0% | 85 |
| Yorman Landa | Twins (R) | Appy | 19 | 2 | 2 | 10.0 | 39 | 15 | 2 | 26.6% | 8.1% | 85 |
| Jose Samayoa | Rangers (R) | AZL | 23 | 3 | 3 | 8.0 | 32 | 14 | 1 | 26.9% | 8.6% | 86 |
| Luis Severino | Yankees (R) | GCL | 19 | 2 | 2 | 9.0 | 35 | 14 | 2 | 26.2% | 8.2% | 86 |
| Ben Lively | Reds (R) | Pio | 21 | 2 | 2 | 6.0 | 23 | 13 | 2 | 26.1% | 8.8% | 86 |
| Wei-Chung Wang | Pirates (R) | GCL | 21 | 3 | 3 | 12.2 | 49 | 16 | 0 | 25.5% | 7.7% | 86 |
| Anthony Bucciferro | White Sox (R) | Appy | 23 | 2 | 2 | 12.2 | 50 | 16 | 1 | 25.6% | 7.8% | 87 |
Three Notes
• Derrick Loveless is not, as one might suspect, a frequently barechested cast member of a popular American soap opera, but rather a 27th-round draft pick by Toronto out of an Iowa high school in 2011. After having spent both 2011 and -12 in the Gulf Coast League, the outfielder has moved this year to the Appalachian League, recording a 6:3 walk-to-strikeout ratio and two home runs in his first 41 plate appearances — which combination of defense-independent stats makes him the most successful Rookie-level batter thus far by the author’s likely flawed methodology.
• Just off the leaderboard for prospect-age batters is Arizona prospect Sergio Alcantara, who’s recorded an 8:5 walk-to-strikeout ratio in 39 plate apperances in the Arizona League thus far. Of note regarding the shortstop is how he’s just 16 years old. Signed for $700 thousand last season shortly after the July 2nd international-signing date, Alcantara is one of the youngest players across all four Rookie-level leagues and yet demonstrating a considerable understanding of the strike zone.
• Inspecting the leaderboards, one is compelled to ask, “Who is Edwin Diaz, right-handed Mariners prospect?” Here’s who, it seems: a third-round pick out of Puerto Rico from last year who recorded a rather poor 20:17 strikeout-to-walk ratio in the Arizona League also last year in 19.0 innings, but has recorded a much better 20:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 16.0 innings so far this year. According to a very recent post at MiLB.com by Cheyne Reiter, the 19-year-old Diaz’ fastball presently sits at 94-96 mph.
Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
San Diego at Washington | 19:05 ET
Andrew Cashner (92.1 IP, 101 xFIP-, 0.7 WAR) faces Gio Gonzalez (105.0 IP, 95 xFIP-, 1.6 WAR). The author would write more about this game were he not distracted by this interview of Jerry Seinfeld by Howard Stern recently.
Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Washington Radio.
Today’s Complete Schedule
Here’s the complete schedule for all of today’s games, with our very proprietary watchability (NERD) scores for each one. Pitching probables and game times aggregated from MLB.com and RotoWire. The average NERD Game Score for today is 5.4.
Note: the following table is entirely sortable.
| Away | SP | Tm. | Gm. | Tm. | SP | Home | Time | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Francisco Liriano | PIT | 9 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 10 | CHN | J. Samardzija | 16:05 |
| Tim Hudson | ATL | 6 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 9 | PHI | Cliff Lee | 19:05 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | BAL | 4 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 8 | NYA | Ivan Nova | 19:05 |
| Rick Porcello | DET | 9 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | CLE | Just. Masterson | 19:05 |
| Andrew Cashner | SD | 6 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 7 | WAS | Gio Gonzalez | 19:05 |
| Kevin Correia | MIN | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 3 | TOR | Mark Buehrle | 19:07 |
| Dylan Axelrod | CHA | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 4 | TB | Jer. Hellickson | 19:10 |
| Aaron Harang | SEA | 5 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 6 | CIN | Mike Leake | 19:10 |
| Lucas Harrell | HOU | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 7 | TEX | Nick Tepesch | 20:05 |
| Zack Wheeler* | NYN | 7 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 6 | MIL | John Hellweg* | 20:10 |
| Tommy Milone | OAK | 4 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 4 | KC | Wade Davis | 20:10 |
| Jacob Turner | MIA | 8 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 1 | STL | J. Westbrook | 20:15 |
| Jorge de la Rosa | COL | 3 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 7 | AZ | Tyler Skaggs* | 21:40 |
| Felix Doubront | BOS | 5 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 4 | LAA | C.J. Wilson | 22:05 |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | LAN | 6 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 6 | SF | Matt Cain | 22:15 |
To learn how Pitcher and Team NERD Scores are calculated, click here.
To learn how Game NERD Scores are calculated, click here.
* = Fewer than 20 IP, NERD at discretion of very handsome author.
Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.