Daily Notes: SCOUT Leaderboards for Rookie-Level Leagues

by
July 5, 2013

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. SCOUT Leaderboards for Rookie-Level Leagues
2. Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

SCOUT Leaderboards for Rookie-Level Leagues
A Brief Introduction
Featured in this edition of the Notes are the SCOUT leaderboards for rookie-level leagues. Briefly stated, SCOUT represents an attempt to use our knowledge of certain metrics, and at what sample sizes they become reliable, to measure run production/prevention in instances where small samples are all that’s available. Stated less briefly, is the explanation available here.

Other recent editions: Triple-A / Double-A / High-A / Class A / Low-A.

SCOUT Leaderboard: Rookie-Level Hitters (Overall)
Below is the current SCOUT batting leaderboard for all Rookie-level hitters. SCOUT+ combines regressed home-run, walk, and strikeout rates in a FIP-like equation to produce a result not unlike wRC+, where 100 is league average and above 100 is above average. Note that players are compared not to all Rookie-level hitters, but to those in their respective league, and then combined afterward for the sake of this leaderboard. Note also that xHR%, xBB%, and xK% stand for expected home run, walk, and strikeout rate, respectively.

Player Team League Age PA HR BB K xHR% xBB% xK% SCOUT+
Derrick Loveless Blue Jays (R) Appy 20 41 2 6 3 1.9% 9.7% 18.3% 118
Tanner Mathis Astros (R) Appy 22 46 0 10 2 1.2% 11.4% 16.9% 118
James McDonald Dodgers (R) AZL 21 49 1 11 7 1.1% 12.2% 19.7% 117
Cal Towey Angels (R) Pio 23 56 1 13 8 1.7% 12.8% 18.2% 117
Gosuke Katoh Yankees (R) GCL 18 24 3 3 3 1.6% 9.1% 20.7% 116
Jose Briceno Rockies (R) Pio 20 51 5 2 9 3.1% 7.5% 19.6% 115
Eric Arce Blue Jays (R) Appy 21 32 3 7 9 2.2% 10.5% 23.6% 114
David Denson Brewers (R) AZL 17 41 2 11 12 1.5% 12.6% 24.3% 114
Phillip Ervin Reds (R) Pio 20 54 2 7 7 2.1% 9.9% 17.9% 113
Travis Flores Rays (R) Appy 20 38 3 4 7 2.2% 8.8% 21.4% 113

SCOUT Leaderboard: Rookie-Level Hitters (Age 20 and Under)
Here are the top-10 batters from Rookie-level leagues who might still, because of their age, be considered prospects — again, as determined by the methodology explained above.

Player Team League Age PA HR BB K xHR% xBB% xK% SCOUT+
Derrick Loveless Blue Jays (R) Appy 20 41 2 6 3 1.9% 9.7% 18.3% 118
Gosuke Katoh Yankees (R) GCL 18 24 3 3 3 1.6% 9.1% 20.7% 116
Jose Briceno Rockies (R) Pio 20 51 5 2 9 3.1% 7.5% 19.6% 115
David Denson Brewers (R) AZL 17 41 2 11 12 1.5% 12.6% 24.3% 114
Phillip Ervin Reds (R) Pio 20 54 2 7 7 2.1% 9.9% 17.9% 113
Travis Flores Rays (R) Appy 20 38 3 4 7 2.2% 8.8% 21.4% 113
Luis Mendez Rangers (R) AZL 20 57 1 8 8 1.1% 10.4% 19.2% 113
Ryan Mcmahon Rockies (R) Pio 18 56 2 10 11 2.1% 11.3% 20.2% 113
Jose Urena Padres (R) AZL 18 51 3 7 13 1.8% 10.1% 23.4% 112
Jose Ortiz Reds (R) Pio 19 27 3 2 4 2.6% 8.6% 19.6% 112

SCOUT Leaderboard: Rookie-Level Pitchers (Overall)
Below is the current SCOUT pitching leaderboard for all Rookie-level leagues. SCOUT- combines regressed strikeout and walk rates in a kwERA-like equation to produce a number not unlike ERA-, where 100 is league average and below 100 is better than average. Note that players are compared not to all Rookie-level pitchers, but to those in their respective league, and then combined afterward for the sake of this leaderboard. Note also that xK% and xBB% stand for expected strikeout and walk rate, respectively.

Player Team League Age G GS IP TBF K BB xK% xBB% SCOUT-
Edwin Diaz Mariners (R) Appy 19 3 3 16.0 58 21 2 27.7% 7.8% 80
Zebulon Sneed Royals (R) Pio 22 4 0 11.0 44 19 2 27.2% 8.4% 82
Marcos Molina Mets (R) GCL 18 2 0 8.1 34 15 2 27.0% 8.3% 83
Juan Oramas Padres (R) AZL 23 2 2 7.0 30 15 2 27.9% 8.8% 84
Daniel Mcgrath Red Sox (R) GCL 18 2 2 10.0 33 14 1 26.5% 8.1% 85
Sam Bragg Athletics (R) AZL 20 4 0 7.1 27 14 2 27.7% 8.8% 85
Jacob Faria Rays (R) Appy 19 2 2 10.0 35 14 1 26.5% 8.0% 85
Yorman Landa Twins (R) Appy 19 2 2 10.0 39 15 2 26.6% 8.1% 85
Phillip Kish Blue Jays (R) GCL 23 3 0 5.2 20 11 1 26.4% 8.3% 85
Jose Samayoa Rangers (R) AZL 23 3 3 8.0 32 14 1 26.9% 8.6% 86

SCOUT Leaderboard: Rookie-Level Pitchers (Starters Only)
Here are the top-10 pitchers in Rookie-level leagues who have made at least half of their appearances as starts — again, as determined by the methodology explained above.

Player Team League Age G GS IP TBF K BB xK% xBB% SCOUT-
Edwin Diaz Mariners (R) Appy 19 3 3 16.0 58 21 2 27.7% 7.8% 80
Juan Oramas Padres (R) AZL 23 2 2 7.0 30 15 2 27.9% 8.8% 84
Daniel Mcgrath Red Sox (R) GCL 18 2 2 10.0 33 14 1 26.5% 8.1% 85
Jacob Faria Rays (R) Appy 19 2 2 10.0 35 14 1 26.5% 8.0% 85
Yorman Landa Twins (R) Appy 19 2 2 10.0 39 15 2 26.6% 8.1% 85
Jose Samayoa Rangers (R) AZL 23 3 3 8.0 32 14 1 26.9% 8.6% 86
Luis Severino Yankees (R) GCL 19 2 2 9.0 35 14 2 26.2% 8.2% 86
Ben Lively Reds (R) Pio 21 2 2 6.0 23 13 2 26.1% 8.8% 86
Wei-Chung Wang Pirates (R) GCL 21 3 3 12.2 49 16 0 25.5% 7.7% 86
Anthony Bucciferro White Sox (R) Appy 23 2 2 12.2 50 16 1 25.6% 7.8% 87

Three Notes
• Derrick Loveless is not, as one might suspect, a frequently barechested cast member of a popular American soap opera, but rather a 27th-round draft pick by Toronto out of an Iowa high school in 2011. After having spent both 2011 and -12 in the Gulf Coast League, the outfielder has moved this year to the Appalachian League, recording a 6:3 walk-to-strikeout ratio and two home runs in his first 41 plate appearances — which combination of defense-independent stats makes him the most successful Rookie-level batter thus far by the author’s likely flawed methodology.

• Just off the leaderboard for prospect-age batters is Arizona prospect Sergio Alcantara, who’s recorded an 8:5 walk-to-strikeout ratio in 39 plate apperances in the Arizona League thus far. Of note regarding the shortstop is how he’s just 16 years old. Signed for $700 thousand last season shortly after the July 2nd international-signing date, Alcantara is one of the youngest players across all four Rookie-level leagues and yet demonstrating a considerable understanding of the strike zone.

• Inspecting the leaderboards, one is compelled to ask, “Who is Edwin Diaz, right-handed Mariners prospect?” Here’s who, it seems: a third-round pick out of Puerto Rico from last year who recorded a rather poor 20:17 strikeout-to-walk ratio in the Arizona League also last year in 19.0 innings, but has recorded a much better 20:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 16.0 innings so far this year. According to a very recent post at MiLB.com by Cheyne Reiter, the 19-year-old Diaz’ fastball presently sits at 94-96 mph.

Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
San Diego at Washington | 19:05 ET
Andrew Cashner (92.1 IP, 101 xFIP-, 0.7 WAR) faces Gio Gonzalez (105.0 IP, 95 xFIP-, 1.6 WAR). The author would write more about this game were he not distracted by this interview of Jerry Seinfeld by Howard Stern recently.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Washington Radio.

Today’s Complete Schedule
Here’s the complete schedule for all of today’s games, with our very proprietary watchability (NERD) scores for each one. Pitching probables and game times aggregated from MLB.com and RotoWire. The average NERD Game Score for today is 5.4.

Note: the following table is entirely sortable.

Away   SP Tm. Gm. Tm. SP   Home Time
Francisco Liriano PIT 9 7 9 5 10 CHN J. Samardzija 16:05
Tim Hudson ATL 6 8 7 1 9 PHI Cliff Lee 19:05
Miguel Gonzalez BAL 4 9 6 4 8 NYA Ivan Nova 19:05
Rick Porcello DET 9 7 8 8 8 CLE Just. Masterson 19:05
Andrew Cashner SD 6 7 6 1 7 WAS Gio Gonzalez 19:05
Kevin Correia MIN 2 2 3 7 3 TOR Mark Buehrle 19:07
Dylan Axelrod CHA 1 2 3 10 4 TB Jer. Hellickson 19:10
Aaron Harang SEA 5 5 5 3 6 CIN Mike Leake 19:10
Lucas Harrell HOU 2 2 4 3 7 TEX Nick Tepesch 20:05
Zack Wheeler* NYN 7 6 6 4 6 MIL John Hellweg* 20:10
Tommy Milone OAK 4 6 5 6 4 KC Wade Davis 20:10
Jacob Turner MIA 8 1 4 4 1 STL J. Westbrook 20:15
Jorge de la Rosa COL 3 8 5 2 7 AZ Tyler Skaggs* 21:40
Felix Doubront BOS 5 7 5 6 4 LAA C.J. Wilson 22:05
Hyun-Jin Ryu LAN 6 1 5 6 6 SF Matt Cain 22:15

To learn how Pitcher and Team NERD Scores are calculated, click here.
To learn how Game NERD Scores are calculated, click here.
* = Fewer than 20 IP, NERD at discretion of very handsome author.





 

Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

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