Author Archive

Prospect Notes from a Bowling Green-West Michigan Game

The author attended on Sunday a Class-A Midwest League game between Rays affiliate Bowling Green and Tigers affiliate West Michigan, at the latter’s home park just outside of Grand Rapids, Michigan.

What follows are some brief comments on notable players from same.

Regarding Jeff Ames
Entering the season, writes Marc Hulet, right-handed Tampa Bay prospect Jeff Ames was known for possessing a mid-90s fastball with excellent life, but less in the way of command or secondary offerings. On Sunday, in fact, Ames’ fastball never exceeded 92 mph — or, at least, not so’s the author noticed. Ames worked at 88-92 mph for the duration of his start and demonstrated an inability to find his release point, sometimes jerking the ball towards the left-handed batter’s box, sometimes opening up his left shoulder too early and pushing the ball to the right-handed batter’s box.

While he ultimately conceded no runs over 4.0 innings, there was considerable labor involved. So far as the slider is concerned, Ames had much the same sort of trouble with it as with the fastball. On those occasions when Ames found his release point, the pitch was effective, at 83-87 mph with nice shape (as demonstrated in the animated GIF, a slider to Lance Durham, below). The changeup — which sat at about 81-83 mph — had little of the depth or fade that one associates with the best versions of that pitch.

Ames

Regarding Andrew Toles
Speed merchant Andrew Toles had the most impressive batting practice of any of the rather talented Bowling Green club — not insofar as it was full of home runs (it wasn’t), but for the quality of the contact Toles made and backspin he produced. It surprised the author to find that Toles’ bat has been one of the concerns regarding that player, the core of whose game is based on speed and defense.

In fact, it would be more accurate to say that concerns (from analysts such as Mark Andersen, for example) regarding Toles’ offensive ability haven’t centered on the quality of Toles’ contact, but rather his approach. Indeed, the center fielder has recorded walk and strikeout rates of 3.8% and 19.9%, respectively, this season through 300-plus plate appearances.

Ideally, a player of Toles’ age relative to the level would be demonstrating more control of the strike zone. If he’s to succeed offensively, it will likely require the sustainment of high BABIPs — which is possible, of course, given his speed and line-drive approach.

Brief Notes
• Tigers second-base prospect Harold Castro, recently demoted to West Michigan from High-A Lakeland following the promotion of Devon Travis to same, demonstrated impressively fluid movements and quick hands defensively — both in-game and during infield practice. While no demotion is regarded as a particularly great sign, Castro is still just 19 years old.

• In an interview with the author before the game, recently drafted Vanderbilt star Connor Harrell noted that he’d like to make the base-on-balls a more significant part of his game. He walked twice against Bowling Green, and struck out looking in a third plate appearance. Coincidence? Very likely, yes.

Patrick Leonard, acquired from Kansas City along with Mike Montgomery, Wil Myers, and Jake Odorizzi, started at first base for Bowling Green. The 20-year-old has had some difficulty in the Midwest League — having recorded a 26:62 walk-to-strikeout ratio and just four home runs in 278 plate appearances — after having posted one of the top regressed offensive lines in all of Rookie-level baseball last season. He had probably the hardest-hit ball of the game, a long fly ball to the left-field wall in the second inning.

Brandon Martin is compelling as a prospect insofar as he’s (a) a supplemental-round pick by the Rays from 2011, (b) a shortstop, and also (c) a 19-year-old in the Midwest League. He produced what the author is prepared to describe as two “competitive at-bats” against Whitecaps starter Charlie Gillies — two at-bats which saw him face a total of 11 pitches and resulted in a walk and then strikeout.

• The author can personally vouch for the quality of the macaroni-and-cheese with barbecue pulled chicken available from a cart behind the home-plate area.


FanGraphs Audio: Dave Cameron Analyzes the Pirates, Mostly

Episode 355
Dave Cameron is both (a) the managing editor of FanGraphs and (b) the guest on this particular edition of FanGraphs Audio — during which edition he analyzes mostly the Pittsburgh Baseball Pirates.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 37 min play time.)

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Daily Notes: SCOUT Leaderboards for Class A

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. SCOUT Leaderboards for Class A
2. Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

SCOUT Leaderboards for Class A
A Brief Introduction
Featured in this edition of the Notes are the SCOUT leaderboards for Class A. Briefly stated, SCOUT represents an attempt to use our knowledge of certain metrics, and at what sample sizes they become reliable, to measure run production/prevention in instances where small samples are all that’s available. Stated less briefly, is the explanation available here.

Other recent editions: Triple-A / Double-A / High-A.

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Daily Notes: A Brief Review of Kyle Gibson’s Debut Start

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. A Brief Review of Kyle Gibson’s Debut Start
2. Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

A Brief Review of Kyle Gibson’s Debut Start
Introduction
As noted in these pages of late, Twins right-handed prospect and 22nd-overall pick in the 2009 draft Kyle Gibson made his major-league debut on Saturday. What follows is a brief review of same.

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Daily Notes: Largely Concerning Two Notable Debuts

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. Two Debuts of Note
2. Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Two Debuts of Note
The Purpose of This Post
The purpose of this post is mostly to inform the readership that two pitchers are scheduled to make their major-league debuts today (Saturday) — namely, Washington right-hander Taylor Jordan (against the New York Nationals) and Minnesota right-hander Kyle Gibson (home against the Kansas Citiers).

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Daily Notes: Night of Precisely One-Thousand Rookie Starters

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. Night of Precisely One-Thousand Rookie Starters
2. Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Night of Precisely One-Thousand Rookie Starters
The Purpose of This Post
The purpose of this post is to alert the readership to how either exactly one-thousand or at least ten rookie pitchers are starting tonight for their respective teams.

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Daily Notes: Meeting of the Corey Kluber Society, At Last

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. Meeting of the Corey Kluber Society, At Last
2. Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Meeting of the Corey Kluber Society, At Last
The Purpose of This Post
The purpose of this post is to announce another meeting — in this case, at 7:05pm ET today (Thursday) — of the Corey Kluber Society.

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Daily Notes: SCOUT Leaderboards for High-A

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. SCOUT Leaderboards for High-A
2. Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

SCOUT Leaderboards for High-A
A Brief Introduction
Featured in this edition of the Notes are the SCOUT leaderboards for High-A. Briefly stated, SCOUT represents an attempt to use our knowledge of certain metrics, and at what sample sizes they become reliable, to measure run production/prevention in instances where small samples are all that’s available. Stated less briefly, is the explanation available here.

Other recent editions: Triple-A / Double-A.

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The Fringe Five: Baseball’s Most Compelling Fringe Prospects

The Fringe Five is a weekly exercise (introduced in April) wherein the author utilizes regressed stats, scouting reports, and also his own heart to identify and/or continue monitoring the most compelling fringe prospects in all of baseball.

Central to this exercise, of course, is a definition of the word fringe. For the first two-plus months of the season the author has considered eligible for the Five any prospect who was absent from all of three notable preseason top-100 prospect lists. It stands to reason, however, that — with the accumulation of substantial plate appearances/innings, the graduation of certain prospects to the majors, and the release recently of two midseason prospect lists — that the prospect landscape has changed and that certain prospects who were omitted from preseason lists have now been included on midseason ones.

*Baseball Prospectus and Bullpen Banter.

It was originally the author’s intention to change the criteria for inclusion among the Five as the season progressed and the prospecting community’s knowledge base changed. What the author didn’t originally account for, however, is the potential utility of the Fringe Five Scoreboard (which one can find at the bottom of this, and every other, edition of the Five). The Scoreboard, which accounts for appearances both among the Fringe and Next Five, provides a brief portrait of the season as a whole. Looking at it now, for example, we find both Rafael Montero and Maikel Franco at seventh and eighth, respectively, among the season’s most compelling fringe prospects. Those same players, however, appear at 57th and 58th, respectively, on Bullpen Banter’s midseason prospect list. Were their inclusion on that Bullpen Banter list to render them ineligible for future edition of the Fringe Five, their place on the end-of-season Scoreboard wouldn’t represent the considerable rise in their value — which, it seems as though there might be some value in representing their considerable and respective rise in value.

For the time being, at least — and for the reasons stated above — the author will continue to use the preseason lists as the determinant of eligibility for the Fringe Five.

Moving on, the reader will find that three players retain their place this week among the Five: well-educated Mets pitching prospect Matthew Bowman; young Philadelphia third baseman, the recently promoted* Maikel Franco; and weekly fixture here, Cardinals Double-A outfielder Mike O’Neill.

*To Double-A Reading, that is.

Departing from the Five proper — mostly for reasons that concern the author’s Whim — are Pirates right-hander Nick Kingham and Athletics first-base prospect Max Muncy — about all of whom one can learn more via technicolor prose in this week’s installment of the Fringe Five, below.

Matthew Bowman, RHP, New York NL (Profile)
Were the author to suggest that the 22-year-old Bowman’s place among the Fringe Five is due solely to his (i.e. Bowman’s) excellent performance so far at High-A St. Lucie, he would be lying*. Were the author to suggest that Bowman’s place among the Five is due even, like, 25% or 15% to his (i.e. Bowman’s) excellent performance so far at High-A St. Lucie, he would still be lying. In point of fact, the author is impressed by privilege and Bowman is an alumnus (or maybe near-alumnus) of Princeton, at which prestigious university students can famously receive credit for murdering an Irishman.

*Although it should be noted that Bowman is pitching well at High-A St. Lucie. Some numbers to that effect: 50.0 IP, 54 K, 9 BB.

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FanGraphs Audio: Dave Cameron Analyzes Baseball, Largely

Episode 354
Dave Cameron is both (a) the managing editor of FanGraphs and (b) the guest on this particular edition of FanGraphs Audio — during which edition he analyzes baseball, but also analyzes other things.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 39 min play time.)

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