Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. Featured Game: Washington at San Diego, 22:10 ET
2. Other Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Featured Game: Washington at San Diego, 22:10 ET
First of All, Concerning a Regret of the Author’s
The author would be remiss not to mention how he’s ashamed of having used the phrase “doubling down” in the title of this post, which expression (i.e. “doubling down”) appears to be some manner of card-playing terminology, but which the author has only ever encountered colloquially, and from which expression he’s derived little pleasure previously.

Moving On, With Regards to This Game
Starting this game for San Diego is Burch Smith, to which right-hander’s major-league debut the author dedicated the largest part of his Notes column this past Saturday and about which right-hander’s debut one might reasonably use a word like “Ick” or “Yeesh.”

Burch Smith’s Debut, His Line from It
Here’s Burch Smith’s line from his debut on Saturday (box): 1.0 IP, 10 TBF, 2 K, 2 BB, 2 GB on 6 batted-balls (33.3% GB), 6.46 xFIP.

Read the rest of this entry »

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. Most Improved Pitchers So Far, Per ZiPS
2. Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Most Improved Pitchers So Far, Per ZiPS
As the reader will know, we carry a tidy collection of projection systems here at the site — of which two now, Steamer and ZiPS, are updated daily with constantly changing rest-of-season and overall total projections. Together, the two systems provide important data for our new Standings tool. Another use is to see which players’ season performances to date have most altered their rest-of-season projections.

This week, in the Notes, we’re considering those hitters and pitchers whose projections have most improved. On Monday and Tuesday, we looked at the most improved hitters according to Steamer and ZiPS, respectively. Yesterday, we considered here the most improved pitchers according to Steamer.

Below are the most improved pitchers, except now according to ZiPS — where “most improved” is defined as “greatest decrease in projected ERA.”

Note: pitchers who (a) are projected to make starts in fewer than 50% of their remaining appearances or (b) are absent currently from a major-league roster have been omitted from consideration.

5. A.J. Burnett, RHP, Pittsburgh
ZiPS (Pre): 172.1 IP, 7.31 K/9, 3.24 BB/9, 0.89 HR/9, 4.07 ERA
ZiPS (RoS): 135.0 IP, 8.18 K/9, 3.22 BB/9, 0.82 HR/9, 3.85 ERA
Notes: Through nine starts now, Burnett has struck out 31.6% of opposing batters — a rate exceeded by only Yu Darvish (39.0%) and Max Scherzer (32.5%) among qualified starts. It’s true to say that the right-hander was better last season following his departure from New York. He was better, though, not because of an increased strikeout rate, but rather improved walk and ground-ball rates. What Burnett has done so far is unprecedented in his career: his previous high strikeout rate is a 25.5% mark he posted in 2007. The difference between his preseason and rest-of-season projected strikeout rates is a testament to what appears to be some kind of real improvement.

Read the rest of this entry »

Episode 337
This edition of a FanGraphs Audio represents what’s known in the industry as a glorious simulcast effort — in this, with Baseball Prospectus’s own podcast, Effectively Wild, hosted by Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 58 min play time.)

Read the rest of this entry »

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. Most Improved Pitchers So Far, Per Steamer
2. Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Most Improved Pitchers So Far, Per Steamer
As the reader will know, we carry a tidy collection of projection systems here at the site — of which two now, Steamer and ZiPS, are updated daily with constantly changing rest-of-season and overall total projections. Together, the two systems provide important data for our new Standings tool. Another use is to see which players’ season performances to date have most altered their rest-of-season projections.

This week, in the Notes, we’re considering those hitters and pitchers whose projections have most improved. On Monday and Tuesday, we looked at the most improved hitters according to Steamer and ZiPS, respectively.

Below are the most improved pitchers according to Steamer — where “most improved” is defined as “greatest decrease in projected ERA.”

Note: pitchers who (a) are projected to make starts in fewer than 50% of their remaining appearances or (b) are absent currently from a major-league roster have been omitted from consideration.

5. Anibal Sanchez, RHP, Detroit
Steamer (Pre): 179.0 IP, 7.05 K/9, 2.59 BB/9, 1.00 HR/9, 4.05 ERA
Steamer (RoS): 138.0 IP, 7.96 K/9, 2.51 BB/9, 0.94 HR/9, 3.71 ERA
Notes: Part of a rotation which entered the season with the entirely formidable Justin Verlander and ever more brilliant Max Scherzer, it’s Sanchez who has posted the highest WAR so far (2.6) among major-league pitchers. It’s not entirely clear what Sanchez has done to improve upon his already above-average repertoire, but he’s somehow managed to increase the swinging-strike rate on all three of his main pitches (four-seam fastball, slider, changeup).

Read the rest of this entry »

The Fringe Five is a weekly exercise (introduced last month) wherein the author utilizes regressed stats, scouting reports, and also his own heart to identify and/or continue monitoring the most compelling fringe prospects in all of baseball.

Central to this exercise, of course, is a working definition of fringe. Currently, for the purposes of this column, it’s any prospect who was absent from all of three notable preseason top-100 prospect lists. (A more robust meditation on the idea of fringe can be found here.)

Since last week’s edition, there have been four total changes to The Fringe Five. Following his second promotion to the major leagues — during the course of which he’s received actual at-bats — Yankees infield prospect Corban Joseph is once again ineligible for this edition of the Five. Likewise, San Diego right-hander Burch Smith, who appeared here last week, remains on the Padres’ 25-man roster following his not-entirely-inspirational major-league debut this past Saturday (box).

Replacing the pair are Miami left-hander Brian Flynn and Chicago Cubs second baseman Ronald Torreyes — about which dynamic pair the reader can learn more below.

All those points having been made, here are this week’s Fringe Five.

Wilmer Flores, 2B/3B, New York NL (Profile)
Flores continues to do things at Triple-A — or, at least, continues to do things offensively at Triple-A — that are rarely done by 21-year-olds. Like, for example, here’s Flores’ line since he appeared among The Five last week: 30 PA, 2 HR, 3 BB, 3 K. And here’s his line overall this season, at least in terms of the truest possible outcomes: 159 PA, 3 HR, 12 BB, 16 K. And, by comparison, here’s other talented 21-year-old Oscar Taveras’s season line in the same Pacific Coast League: 127 PA, 4 HR, 6 BB, 17 K. He continues to produce evidence that he’s an entirely promising future hitter, is the point one derives from all this information.

Read the rest of this entry »

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. Most Improved Hitters So Far, Per ZiPS
2. Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Most Improved Hitters So Far, Per ZiPS
As the reader will know, we carry a tidy collection of projection systems here at the site — of which two now, Steamer and ZiPS, are updated daily with constantly changing rest-of-season and overall total projections. Together, the two systems provide important data for our new Standings tool. Another use is to see which players’ season performances to date have most altered their rest-of-season projections.

This week, in the Notes, we’re considering those hitters and pitchers whose projections have most improved. Yesterday, we looked at the most improved hitters according to Steamer — where “most improved” was defined as “greatest increase in wOBA projection.” Below are the most improved hitters, except now according to ZiPS.

Note: because the final preseason edition of ZiPS is released relatively early, there are a number of players originally projected with one team but now playing with, and being projected for, another. The change in teams also means a change in park effects, and therefore a change in raw wOBA. As such, I omitted from my search any player who might be subject to this effect. That stated, Mike Carp (97 wRC+ preseason, 110 wRC+ rest-of-season) and Vernon Wells (97 wRC+ preseason, 107 wRC+ rest-of-season) deserve recognition.

5. Evan Longoria, 3B, Tampa Bay
ZiPS (Pre): 538 PA, .263/.355/.486 (.289 BABIP), .358 wOBA, 132 wRC+
ZiPS (RoS): 431 PA, .276/.365/.508 (.306 BABIP), .373 wOBA, 140 wRC+
Notes: Speaking anecdotally, at least, ZiPS appears to be more aggressive than Steamer in terms of integrating recent performances into its rest-of-season projections. By way of example, the player (Josh Donaldson) occupying the fifth spot on the Steamer version of this list from yesterday has been assigned only a 10-point improvement in his rest-of-season wOBA projection and four-point improvement in wRC+. Longoria, meanwhile, has posted 15- and eight-point improvements, respectively.

Read the rest of this entry »

Episode 336
Dave Cameron is both (a) the managing editor of FanGraphs and (b) the guest on this particular edition of FanGraphs Audio — during which edition he analyzes a portion of baseball closest to 100%.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 43 min play time.)

Read the rest of this entry »

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. Most Improved Hitters So Far, Per Steamer
2. Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Most Improved Hitters So Far, Per Steamer
As the reader will know, we carry a tidy collection of projection systems here at the site — of which two now, Steamer and ZiPS, are updated daily with constantly changing rest-of-season and overall total projections. Together, the two systems provide important data for our new Standings tool. Another use is to see which players’ season performances to date have most altered their rest-of-season projections.

This week, in the Notes, we’ll be considering those hitters and pitchers whose projections have most improved. Below are the most improved hitters, according to Steamer — where “most improved” is defined as “greatest increase in wOBA projection.”

Note: any player either (a) with fewer than 150 projected rest-of-season plate appearances or (b) absent currently from a major-league roster has been omitted from consideration.

5. Josh Donaldson, 3B, Oakland
Steamer (Pre): 403 PA, .250/.315/.421 (.279 BABIP), .319 wOBA, 103 wRC+
Steamer (RoS): 306 PA, .257/.324/.432 (.286 BABIP), .329 wOBA, 107 wRC+
Notes: Most of Donaldson’s improvement so far seems to have come from an increase in projected BABIP. After entering the season with a .272 figure in 328 major-league plate appearances — and only a ca. .300 BABIP in the offense-heavy Pacific Coast League — he currently has a .336 so far this season through 159 plate appearances.

Read the rest of this entry »

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. Brief Review: Francisco Liriano’s First Start
2. Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Brief Review: Francisco Liriano’s First Start
Introduction
Talented and also mercurial left-hander Francisco Liriano made his major-league season debut yesterday (Saturday) against the Mets in New York. What follows is a very brief review of same.

Liriano’s Results
Liriano had one of Saturday’s best starts in the league, posting the second-best single-game xFIP (1.58) among the day’s 30 starters and also third-highest single-game WAR (0.3). Here’s his complete line: 5.1 IP, 24 TBF, 9 K, 2 BB, 4 GB on 12 batted-balls (33.3%), .462 BABIP.

Liriano’s Pitches
As the PITCHf/x chart below (featuring pitch speed and horizontal movement) mostly reveals, Liriano threw his usual complement of pitches: a combination of four-seam and sinking fastballs, slider, and changeup.

Read the rest of this entry »

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. Featured Game: San Diego at Tampa Bay, 18:10 ET
2. Other Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Featured Game: San Diego at Tampa Bay, 18:10 ET
Regarding This Game, Who’s Starting It for San Diego
Starting this game for San Diego — in fact, making his major-league debut in this game for San Diego — is 23-year-old right-hander Burch Smith.

Regarding Burch Smith, Who the Hell He Is
In terms of who the hell is Burch Smith, Burch Smith is one of the minor leagues’ most successful pitchers this season so far, having posted a 37:6 strikeout-to-walk ratio, for example, in just 31.1 innings (six starts) for Padres Double-A affiliate San Antonio — which performance (along with reports regarding his stuff) has earned him a place among the Fringe Five each of the last three weeks.

Regarding Burch Smith, Who the Hell He Also Is
Originally, Smith was a 14th-round pick by the Padres in 2011 out of the University of Oklahoma, at which university he had matriculated following two years at junior college. He pitched briefly in the Arizona League following the draft in 2011 (2.0 IP, 4:1 K:BB) and then in the High-A California League last season (128.2 IP, 137:27 K:BB).

Read the rest of this entry »