Episode 306
Dayn Perry, contributor to CBS Sports’ Eye on Baseball and author of two books (one of them serviceable), answers questions from concerned readers.
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Audio after the jump. (Approximately 57 min play time.)
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Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.
1. Some Brief and Mostly Important Disclaimers
2. The Top-Five Rookie-Eligible Hitters, According to ZiPS
3. The Top-Six Rookie-Eligible Pitchers, According to ZiPS
Some Brief and Mostly Important Disclaimers
With the release of the ZiPS projections for the Cleveland Indians this morning, now all 30 major-league teams have been caressed tenderly by Dan Szymborski’s math computer.
In celebration, what the present author has done is to peruse haphazardly all 30 sets of ZiPS team projections with a view to extracting from same the rookie-eligible hitters and pitchers (meaning fewer than 130 at-bats or 50 innings in the majors) with the best projections — where “best” is equivalent to “highest projected WAR” and nothing else.
Below are the players who most aptly fit all of that description — the top-five hitters and, because there was a tie for fourth, top-six pitchers. Alongside each player’s name are listed his 2012 line (for the level at which he spent the most time) and his 2013 projection. (Note that ZiPS does not predict playing time in the majors, but, rather, projects major-league equivalent production.) Finally, the author has appended brief comments to each entry to give the impression that he has not merely assembled a List of Numbers.
The Top-Five Rookie-Eligible Hitters, According to ZiPS
By the criteria outline above, here are the top five rookie-eligible hitters for 2013, according to ZiPS.
5. Mike Olt, 3B, Texas
2012 Line: 420 PA, .288/.398/.579 (.327 BABIP), 168 wRC+ at Double-A
2013 ZiPS: 487 PA, .247/.331/.429 (.325 BABIP), 2.4 WAR
Notes: At 24, Olt is among the oldest players on this list. With plus power and defense, skill set is not entirely dissimilar from — if less impressive than — Rangers current third baseman Adrian Beltre’s.
Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, which have typically appeared in the pages of Baseball Think Factory, are being released at FanGraphs this year. Below are the projections for the Cleveland Indians. Szymborski can be found on Twitter at @DSzymborski.
Other 2013 Projections: Angels / Astros / Athletics / Blue Jays / Braves / Brewers / Cardinals / Cubs / Diamondbacks / Dodgers / Giants / Mariners / Marlins / Mets / Nationals / Orioles / Padres / Phillies / Pirates / Rangers / Rays / Reds / Red Sox / Rockies / Royals / Tigers / Twins / White Sox / Yankees.
Batters
If you’re like the author, you’re hirsute in a way that make pets and small children demonstrably uncomfortable. You’re also a bit surprised by the competence of the Indians offense entering 2013. No Cleveland field player posted better than a 3.4 WAR in 2012; in fact, there are three players here — Carlos Santana (4.4), Michael Bourn (4.0), and Asdrubal Cabrera (3.7) — projected to surpass last year’s team-high mark. Six other players are forecast to post something between a 2.0 and 3.0 WAR.
A thing to note: both Michael Brantley and Drew Stubbs are projected as center fielders, where each spent the majority of 2012 defensively. Moving to the corners won’t affect their individual WAR projections, likely, but does mean that what they lose in runs to positional adjustment, they’re likely to regain in terms of runs saved afield. If we say that Brantley and Stubbs are roughly average center fielders, then it’s also fair to say they’re likely to save something like +10 runs defensively in either left or right field.
Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.
1. Five Notable Signings from the Indy Leagues
2. Action Footage: Mike Benacka’s Excellent Changeup
3. Entirely Still Footage: Mike Benacka’s Virile Beard
Five Notable Signings from the Indy Leagues
The author has given some attention this offseason, by way of these Notes, to various independent and winter leagues. What follows is a list of five players who have both (a) excelled in one or the other of those types of leagues (i.e. independent or winter) and (b) been signed this offseason by a major-league organization.
Note: Ages listed are 2013 “baseball” ages — meaning age as of June 30, 2013. Other note: the author’s expertise in on this subject is not a matter of debate — which is to say, no one debates that he’s an expert.
Player: Mike Benacka, 30, RHP
2012 Line: 52.2 IP, 15.7 K/9, 6.0 BB/9 in American Association
Signing Club: Toronto Blue Jays
Notes: Member of Oakland system from 2008 to -11, after success in Frontier League in 2007-08. Has posted formidable strikeout and walk rates due to a combination of an excellent changeup and less excellent other pitches, it appears. Posted best regressed pitching in American Association in 2012. Did same thing in Mexican Pacific League this winter.
Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, which have typically appeared in the pages of Baseball Think Factory, are being released at FanGraphs this year. Below are the projections for the Atlanta Braves. Szymborski can be found on Twitter at @DSzymborski.
Other 2013 Projections: Angels / Astros / Athletics / Blue Jays / Brewers / Cardinals / Cubs / Diamondbacks / Dodgers / Giants / Mariners / Marlins / Mets / Nationals / Orioles / Padres / Phillies / Pirates / Rangers / Rays / Reds / Red Sox / Rockies / Royals / Tigers / Twins / White Sox / Yankees.
Batters
Basically every starter for Atlanta — plus the Francisco/Johnson platoon at third — appears likely to produce something between two and four wins above replacement. For obvious reasons, that’s more of a good thing than a bad one — on account of, I mean, more wins is better than fewer wins. If there is a downside to having such a balanced roster, it’s that upgrading at midseason is more challenging. Last season, for example, the Chicago White Sox had the blackest of possible holes at third base. Therefore, their late-June acquisition of Kevin Youkilis represented a considerable improvement over the status quo. As of now, the possibility that the Braves will have such a glaring weakness is on the low-ish end of things.
Posing some difficulty to those who would prefer to draw strong conclusions about Atlanta based on these projections is what one might call, were he/she in the mood, the Brian McCann Shoulder Situation. The very good Braves catcher had surgery on his right shoulder in October — of which procedure Dan Szymborski’s math computer is entirely unaware. Reports suggest that McCann should be ready by mid-April, but even that timetable is liable to futz around with McCann’s “real” projection for 2013.
Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.
1. Crowdsourced vs. Actual Contract Values
2. Table: Top-Five Remaining Crowdsourced Contracts
3. Potentially Irrelevant Video: Michael Bourn, Diving Catch
Crowdsourced vs. Actual Contract Values
Before the end of the season, FanGraphs asked readers to project what sort of contracts the league’s free agents would receive, both in terms of years (Yrs) and average annual value (AAV). Now, as we approach the middle of February, the largest portion of those same free agents have received actual, real-live contracts.
Episode 305
Though many have said it couldn’t be done, managing editor Dave Cameron — in this edition of FanGraphs Audio — analyzes baseball, entirely. Of note: reviewing some first principles from Cameron’s 10-best and -worst offseason transaction posts; everything regarding the Felix Hernandez extension; and the Francisco Liriano deal with Pittsburgh, if it’s a bargain in the way the Cubs’ Scott Feldman signing is.
Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.
You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.
Audio after the jump. (Approximately 35 min play time.)
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Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.
1. Top Performers of the Australian Baseball League
2. Largely Unhelpful Video: Adam Buschini Homering
3. Final (!) SCOUT Leaderboards: Australian Baseball League
Top Performers of the Australian Baseball League
The championship series for the Australian Baseball League (ABL) took place this weekend, with Canberra defeating Perth, 2-0, in the best-of-three competition.
Here are the top performers of the ABL, per SCOUT (a metric explained below, but which, briefly stated, uses regressed inputs to help make sense of small samples).
Best Hitter: Adam Buschini
A native of Oakland, Canberra second baseman Adam Buschini was originally a fourth-round pick out of Cal Poly by the Philadelphia in the 2009 draft. After spending 2008-09 in the Phillies system, he was released by the club and found his way to independent ball, first with Chico (of the North American League) in 2011 and then with Amarillo (of the American Association) in 2012. This season in the ABL, Buschini almost doubled the home-run total of the next-best by that measure, hitting 15 of them to lead the league. San Diego appears to have recently signed Buschini to a minor-league deal.
Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, which have typically appeared in the pages of Baseball Think Factory, are being released at FanGraphs this year. Below are the projections for the Boston Red Sox. Szymborski can be found on Twitter at @DSzymborski.
Other 2013 Projections: Angels / Astros / Athletics / Blue Jays / Brewers / Cardinals / Cubs / Diamondbacks / Dodgers / Giants / Mariners / Marlins / Mets / Nationals / Orioles / Padres / Phillies / Pirates / Rangers / Rays / Reds / Rockies / Royals / Tigers / Twins / White Sox / Yankees.
Batters
It’s important, of course, to acknowledge always that front offices — especially the sort which have a reputation for embracing all manner of analysis — that they might possess certain information to which we, baseball’s laypeople, are not privy. To whatever degree that might be the case, however, it’s difficult to imagine what information precisely the Red Sox might have with regard to Jonny Gomes, whom the club signed to a two-year, $10 million contract this offseason and intends, it seems, to deploy as their starting left fielder. While the bar is rather low for Gomes to earn his money, Dan Szymborski’s math computer suggests that Gomes’ odds of producing like an average major-leaguer aren’t excellent.
I asked Szymborski about the Gomes projection — and, in particular, to what degree it might account for platoon splits (Gomes having a reputation for possessing a large-ish one). To which question Szymborski replied: “ZiPS only knows past usage.” To that point, we ought to consider this when considering Gomes’s rather successful 2012 season: about 59% of Gomes’s plate appearances in 2012 were against left-handed pitchers. Meanwhile, only one-third of his plate appearances between 2009 and -11 were against lefties.
Episode 304
Prospect analyst Marc Hulet discusses some recent organizational top-15 prospect lists for the 2012-13 offseason, with particular attention to left-hander Martin Perez (Texas), right-hander Julio Teheran (Atlanta), right-hander Luis Heredia (Pittsburgh), left-hander Enny Romero (Tampa Bay), outfielder Mikie Mahtook (Tampa Bay), third baseman Jedd Gyorko, and left-hander Robbie Erlin (both from San Diego) — as well as the assorted issues raised by each.
Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.
You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.
Audio after the jump. (Approximately 39 min play time.)
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