Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, which have typically appeared in the pages of Baseball Think Factory, are being released at FanGraphs this year. Below are the projections for the Milwaukee Brewers. Szymborski can be found on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other 2013 Projections: Angels / Astros / Athletics / Blue Jays / Cubs / Giants / Nationals / Phillies / Rangers / Royals.

Batters
Milwaukee’s is not a stars-and-scrubs offense, per se. It is, however, a stars-and-something offense — owing largely to the presence, first, of left-fielder Ryan Braun and then, second, everyone else on the team, none of whom are as good as left-fielder Ryan Braun. A year after winning the NL MVP award (in 2011), Braun posted the second-highest WAR in the National League last season. Unsurprisingly, he’s projected to be quite good in 2013, as well.

Elsewhere, the team is almost uniformly average. ZiPS is skeptical about Aramis Ramirez‘s capacity to approximate what was actually a career year in 2012. On the other hand, young shortstop Jean Segura’s failure to play any better than replacement level after arriving in Milwaukee (by way of the Zack Greinke trade) doesn’t appear to entirely mar his projection for 2013.

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Episode 292
Dayn Perry, contributor to CBS Sports’ Eye on Baseball and author of two books (one of them serviceable), finds that the New Year has improved his stupid life by zero percent.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 41 min play time.)

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Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. Top Performances of the Mexican Pacific League
2. Unhelpful Video: Barbaro Canizares Homering for Spain
3. Final (!) SCOUT Leaderboards: Mexican Pacific League

Top Performances of the Mexican Pacific League
The playoffs for the Mexican Pacific League (MPL) have begun — and, as such, the regular-season stats for the players in said League are final.

Here are the top performers of the MPL, per SCOUT (a metric explained below, but which, briefly stated, uses regressed inputs to help make sense of small samples).

Best Hitter (Overall): Barbaro Canizares
A native of Cuba, first baseman Barbaro Canizares defected in February of 2004 and was signed eventually by Atlanta in 2006. He left affiliated baseball after the 2010 season, having accrued 21 major-league plate appearances, and has played in Mexico and with the independent American Association since. While a number of top hitters in the MPL approximated Canizares’ home-run rate this season, his control of the plate (he posted a 42:35 BB:K) is what set him apart.

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Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, which have typically appeared in the pages of Baseball Think Factory, will be released at FanGraphs this year. Below are the projections for the Kansas City Royals. Szymborski can be found on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other 2013 Projections: Angels / Astros / Athletics / Blue Jays / Cubs / Giants / Nationals / Phillies / Rangers.

Batters
Jeff Francoeur remains better at baseball than almost everyone — but likely not as good as an average major-leaguer. It will probably not shock Royals fans that Francoeur — who GM Dayton Moore suggested in December will remain the team’s starting right fielder even after posting a -1.2 WAR in 2012 — is projected to be the weakest link among Kansas City’s field players.

Of some interest will be how the club handles second base this year. Despite having posted just a 64 wRC+ and -0.8 WAR in his first 376 major-league plate appearances, 25-year-old Johnny Giavotella’s profile — according to ZiPS — remains that of league-average player. To his credit, he posted one of the best regressed offensive lines in the Pacific Coast League last year among prospect-aged batters.

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Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. Top Performances of the Puerto Rican League
2. Mostly Relevant Video: Boston Prospect Jose De La Torre
3. Final (!) SCOUT Leaderboards: Puerto Rican League

Top Performances of the Puerto Rican League
The playoffs for the Puerto Rican League (PRL) have begun — and, as such, the regular-season stats for the players in said League are final.

Here are the top performers of the PRL, per SCOUT (a metric explained below, but which, briefly stated, uses regressed inputs to help make sense of small samples).

Best Hitter (Overall): Pedro Valdes
A one-time member of both the Rangers and Cubs organizations — and owner of 93 major-league plate appearances — Pedro Valdes has spent the past 10-plus seasons in Japan and Mexico, predominantly. Provided his Baseball Reference page is accurate, he appears actually not to have played professional ball in 2012. Provided the author understands three words in Spanish, Valdes appears to be retiring from baseball completely following the completion of the Puerto Rican League. While hitting just two home runs in the PRL, Valdes owned the strike zone, posting a 30:16 walk-to-strikeout ratio in an estimated 116 plate appearances.

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Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, which have typically appeared in the pages of Baseball Think Factory, will be released at FanGraphs this year. Below are the projections for the maybe-AL-East-favorite Toronto Blue Jays. Szymborski can be found on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other 2013 Projections: Angels / Astros / Athletics / Cubs / Giants / Nationals / Phillies / Rangers.

Batters
In 2012, Jose Bautista and Brett Lawrie combined for just 217 total games played and 935 plate appearances, posting a 3.2 and 2.9 WAR, respectively. Were each to have produced at similar rates over 650 plate appearances instead (which probably isn’t a responsible thing to assume, actually, but that’s what’s happening right now), that would have been worth about another two or three wins to the Blue Jays — and likely even more, on account of how the Jays’ main replacements at right field (Moises Sierra) and third base (Adeiny Hechavarria) were worth less than replacement level. For 2013, even with just ca. 1,100 plate appearances projected between them, Bautista and Lawrie are expected to combine for about 9.0 WAR — or, roughly what they’d have produced together in a full season in 2012.

Elsewhere, early indications are that the Blue Jays will wait until spring training to name a starting second baseman. ZiPS suggests that maybe Maicer Izturis and not Emilio Bonifacio would be the right choice, although it’s not the proverbial “slam dunk.”

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Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. Top Performers of the Dominican Winter League
2. Totally Irrelevant Video: Rey Ordonez, Superstar Defender
3. SCOUT Leaderboards: Dominican Winter League

Top Performers of the Dominican Winter League
The playoffs for the Dominican Winter League (DWL) have begun — and, as such, the regular-season stats for the players in said League are final.

Here are the top performers of the DWL, per SCOUT (a metric explained below, but which, briefly stated, uses regressed inputs to help make sense of small samples).

Best Hitter (Overall): Hector Luna
Hector Luna, who turns 33 in February, isn’t a player about whom one is compelled to think very often — although, to his credit, he’s been slightly better than replacement level in 800-plus major-league plate appearances with five teams since 2004. Also to his credit, he was excellent in the DWL, posting a 29:30 walk-to-strikeout ratio while hitting seven home runs in ca. 200 plate appearances.

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Episode 291
FanGraphs managing editor Dave Cameron continues, in 2013, to analyze as much baseball as he did in 2012 — which is to say, all of it. In what follows, specifically, he analyzes the part of baseball concerning the recent signing by Texas of Lance Berkman. Also: center field in Texas and who’s playing it. Also-also: how Mike Trout is projected to have an eight-win season.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 42 min play time.)

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Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. Five Terribly Urgent FAN Projection Targets
2. Bias-Creating Video: Trevor Rosenthal, Maxing
3. SCOUT Leaderboards: Venezuelan Winter League

Five Terribly Urgent FAN Projection Targets
In the not very distant past, Dark Overlord of FanGraphs David Appelman released for the benefit of the bespectacled readership this year’s FAN Projection ballots. Less than a week later, over 200 players have reached the eight-vote threshold required for their projections to appear on the main FAN Projection page.

Here, the present author imposes his tastes and biases onto the reader — in this case, by requesting that said reader project players (a) who’ve not reached the eight-vote threshold and (b) about whom he (i.e. the author, again) is particularly curious.

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Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, which have typically appeared in the pages of Baseball Think Factory, are being released at FanGraphs this year. Below are the projections for the Los Angeles Angels of You-Know-Where. Szymborski can be found on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other 2013 Projections: Astros / Athletics / Cubs / Giants / Nationals / Phillies / Rangers.

Batters
It’s impossible to ignore the very optimistic projection for 2012’s Champion of WAR, Mike Trout — so, let’s not. While an eight-win season is certainly aggressive so far as a forecast is concerned — if for no other reason than only two or three players surpass the eight-win threshold per year — it’s also the case that ZiPS is being at least somewhat conservative with regard to Trout, forecasting him to hit fewer home runs, steal fewer bases, post a considerably lower BABIP, and save fewer runs afield in 2013 than in 2012.

Otherwise, the Angels are almost uniformly above average: with the exception of Mark Trumbo, every starter is projected to post a (rounded) WAR of 3.0 or greater.

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