2013 ZiPS Projections – Toronto Blue Jays

Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, which have typically appeared in the pages of Baseball Think Factory, will be released at FanGraphs this year. Below are the projections for the maybe-AL-East-favorite Toronto Blue Jays. Szymborski can be found on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other 2013 Projections: Angels / Astros / Athletics / Cubs / Giants / Nationals / Phillies / Rangers.

Batters
In 2012, Jose Bautista and Brett Lawrie combined for just 217 total games played and 935 plate appearances, posting a 3.2 and 2.9 WAR, respectively. Were each to have produced at similar rates over 650 plate appearances instead (which probably isn’t a responsible thing to assume, actually, but that’s what’s happening right now), that would have been worth about another two or three wins to the Blue Jays — and likely even more, on account of how the Jays’ main replacements at right field (Moises Sierra) and third base (Adeiny Hechavarria) were worth less than replacement level. For 2013, even with just ca. 1,100 plate appearances projected between them, Bautista and Lawrie are expected to combine for about 9.0 WAR — or, roughly what they’d have produced together in a full season in 2012.

Elsewhere, early indications are that the Blue Jays will wait until spring training to name a starting second baseman. ZiPS suggests that maybe Maicer Izturis and not Emilio Bonifacio would be the right choice, although it’s not the proverbial “slam dunk.”

Pitchers
Brandon Morrow’s 2.4 WAR in 2012 was the team’s highest mark for a pitcher (by a factor of two, in fact). That same figure in 2013 would merit consideration merely for the fifth starter role, according to ZiPS, which projects offseason acquisitions R.A. Dickey, Josh Johnson, and Mark Buehrle to combine for something like 10 wins.

The bullpen features (deservedly, given his recent track record) an enthusiastic projection (60.1 IP, 79 ERA-, 1.2 WAR) for Casey Janssen — which is notable insofar as anyone who followed baseball in 2006 will remember Janssen as a soft-tossing starter. By way of illustrating his improvement, here’s a poorly designed graph of Janssen’s swinging-strike rates from 2006 to ’12:

Bench/Prospects
The aggressive nature of Toronto’s offseason necessarily means that their system is less impressive than it would have been otherwise, now lacking Travis D’Arnaud, Jake Marisnick, and Noah Syndergaard, among others. The very athletic Anthony Gose, despite a 2012 that saw him post a 73 wRC+, is viewed as something not unlike major-league average by ZiPS. And, at catcher, A.J. Jimenez is forecast roughly on par with J.P. Arencibia and newly acquired Josh Thole.

Depth Chart
Here’s a rough depth chart for the Blue Jays, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player (click to embiggen):

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Credit to MLB Depth Charts for roster information.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Jose Bautista	R	32	RF	497	74	108	21	2	31	80	7	2
Jose Reyes	B	30	SS	613	83	164	32	10	12	55	34	9
Brett Lawrie	R	23	3B	573	77	144	28	6	19	66	15	6
Edwin Encarnacion	R	30	DH	529	71	126	24	0	28	80	8	2
Melky Cabrera	B	28	LF	641	91	174	35	6	16	77	15	6
Kelly Johnson	L	31	2B	578	67	120	23	4	20	60	12	4
Colby Rasmus	L	26	CF	588	82	128	26	4	23	73	6	3
J.P. Arencibia	R	27	C	464	52	100	23	2	23	72	1	0
Anthony Gose	L	22	CF	662	78	141	23	8	11	54	47	14
Adam Lind	L	29	1B	556	55	134	26	2	22	79	1	0
Josh Thole	L	26	C	426	37	100	21	1	4	36	1	1
Maicer Izturis	B	32	2B	365	42	89	20	1	4	33	11	4
A.J. Jimenez	R	23	C	292	26	70	13	1	4	27	6	3
Rajai Davis	R	32	LF	461	57	111	24	4	5	42	38	12
Luis Jimenez	L	31	1B	532	65	122	27	1	14	63	2	0
Ryan Langerhans	L	33	LF	370	40	67	14	2	10	33	5	5
Emilio Bonifacio	B	28	CF	442	53	101	13	5	2	23	29	6
Jack Cust	L	34	RF	429	49	77	15	1	15	50	2	0
David Cooper	L	26	1B	572	59	134	35	1	13	65	0	1
Mike Nickeas	R	30	C	241	22	50	10	0	3	26	0	1
Mike McCoy	R	32	2B	414	45	80	14	1	3	27	19	7
Luke Hughes	R	28	2B	313	32	62	14	2	7	29	4	2
Ryan Goins	L	25	SS	546	46	120	25	3	4	46	7	6
Moises Sierra	R	24	RF	494	53	110	15	2	15	59	7	8
Paul Phillips	R	36	C	172	13	38	5	0	1	11	0	1
Omar Vizquel	B	46	2B	157	14	37	6	1	0	7	2	2
Jim Negrych	L	28	2B	420	48	92	16	2	5	39	5	5
Vladimir Guerrero	R	38	LF	246	26	67	12	1	7	29	1	1
Eugenio Velez	B	31	RF	436	44	94	20	3	6	41	19	9
Chris Woodward	R	37	3B	383	33	80	19	1	4	31	3	2
Lance Zawadzki	B	28	2B	355	35	70	12	3	6	30	8	2
Kevin Howard	L	32	1B	342	30	77	12	1	6	31	4	3

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	BA	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Jose Bautista	497	16.3%	18.1%	.291	.266	.266	.391	.557	.395
Jose Reyes	613	7.3%	8.5%	.157	.304	.293	.343	.450	.339
Brett Lawrie	573	6.5%	16.6%	.186	.304	.275	.332	.461	.343
Edwin Encarnacion	529	10.6%	15.3%	.235	.275	.273	.357	.508	.366
Melky Cabrera	641	6.4%	13.6%	.161	.320	.294	.339	.455	.337
Kelly Johnson	578	10.6%	26.0%	.179	.294	.236	.322	.415	.321
Colby Rasmus	588	8.7%	25.3%	.196	.292	.242	.311	.438	.317
J.P. Arencibia	464	6.0%	27.6%	.224	.273	.233	.282	.457	.316
Anthony Gose	662	8.0%	26.6%	.121	.318	.237	.307	.358	.298
Adam Lind	556	7.0%	19.8%	.188	.292	.263	.315	.451	.327
Josh Thole	426	8.2%	13.1%	.091	.294	.261	.325	.352	.292
Maicer Izturis	365	7.4%	12.1%	.103	.299	.270	.331	.373	.310
A.J. Jimenez	292	4.5%	17.5%	.100	.303	.258	.295	.358	.283
Rajai Davis	461	5.0%	18.0%	.109	.308	.259	.302	.368	.298
Luis Jimenez	532	8.6%	21.2%	.146	.302	.252	.318	.398	.313
Ryan Langerhans	370	11.6%	31.4%	.149	.288	.208	.302	.357	.287
Emilio Bonifacio	442	7.7%	20.4%	.073	.320	.254	.312	.327	.287
Jack Cust	429	14.0%	33.1%	.171	.298	.212	.329	.383	.315
David Cooper	572	7.7%	15.0%	.146	.283	.257	.315	.403	.309
Mike Nickeas	241	7.1%	19.5%	.088	.276	.229	.289	.317	.264
Mike McCoy	414	10.9%	17.4%	.070	.269	.223	.310	.293	.273
Luke Hughes	313	7.0%	27.5%	.138	.284	.218	.279	.356	.278
Ryan Goins	546	5.5%	20.1%	.085	.296	.239	.280	.324	.259
Moises Sierra	494	5.9%	23.5%	.140	.290	.241	.294	.381	.291
Paul Phillips	172	5.2%	12.8%	.050	.268	.238	.281	.288	.247
Omar Vizquel	157	3.8%	10.2%	.054	.278	.252	.277	.306	.251
Jim Negrych	420	8.1%	17.1%	.093	.287	.244	.306	.337	.279
Vladimir Guerrero	246	2.0%	9.3%	.148	.288	.284	.305	.432	.314
Eugenio Velez	436	6.0%	22.0%	.109	.292	.234	.285	.343	.274
Chris Woodward	383	4.4%	20.9%	.093	.274	.223	.262	.316	.253
Lance Zawadzki	355	5.4%	26.5%	.108	.275	.210	.255	.318	.252
Kevin Howard	342	5.0%	17.0%	.099	.273	.238	.276	.337	.264

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player	PA	RC/27	OPS+	Def	WAR	No.1 Comp
Jose Bautista	497	8.1	153	-1	4.6	Ralph Kiner
Jose Reyes	613	6.2	113	-3	4.3	Rafael Furcal
Brett Lawrie	573	5.8	112	9	4.3	Adrian Beltre
Edwin Encarnacion	529	6.8	131	0	3.3	Richie Zisk
Melky Cabrera	641	6.0	113	-3	2.5	Shannon Stewart
Kelly Johnson	578	4.8	98	-1	2.4	Jed Hansen
Colby Rasmus	588	4.8	100	-1	2.2	Ernie Young
J.P. Arencibia	464	4.6	96	-2	2.0	John Buck
Anthony Gose	662	4.2	80	4	2.0	Herm Winningham
Adam Lind	556	5.2	105	-1	1.4	Larry Sheets
Josh Thole	426	4.2	84	-3	1.1	Bruce Benedict
Maicer Izturis	365	4.7	91	-1	1.1	Wally Backman
A.J. Jimenez	292	3.9	76	3	1.1	Kirt Manwaring
Rajai Davis	461	4.4	81	2	0.7	Gil Coan
Luis Jimenez	532	4.6	93	-2	0.6	Lyle Overbay
Ryan Langerhans	370	3.5	78	7	0.6	Brad Wilkerson
Emilio Bonifacio	442	4.2	74	-4	0.5	Alex Cole
Jack Cust	429	4.4	92	-4	0.4	Adam Hyzdu
David Cooper	572	4.6	93	-4	0.3	Rod Brewer
Mike Nickeas	241	3.1	64	0	0.3	Chris Tremie
Mike McCoy	414	3.3	65	-1	0.1	Julio Cruz
Luke Hughes	313	3.4	71	-3	0.0	Seth Bynum
Ryan Goins	546	3.1	63	-3	0.0	Felix Molina
Moises Sierra	494	3.8	81	1	-0.1	Angel Echevarria
Paul Phillips	172	2.7	55	-2	-0.2	Raul Chavez
Omar Vizquel	157	2.9	58	-1	-0.2	Rey Sanchez
Jim Negrych	420	3.5	74	-6	-0.3	Josh Labandeira
Vladimir Guerrero	246	4.9	97	-9	-0.4	Rich Aurilia
Eugenio Velez	436	3.5	70	-1	-0.5	Doug Clark
Chris Woodward	383	2.9	56	-2	-0.5	Jeff Branson
Lance Zawadzki	355	2.9	54	-4	-0.6	Kevin Davis
Kevin Howard	342	3.2	65	0	-0.7	Kevin Jordan

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	SO	BB	HR	H	R	ER
R.A. Dickey	R	38	30	29	194.3	148	47	25	193	90	84
Josh Johnson	R	29	24	24	149.0	123	45	14	143	65	61
Brandon Morrow	R	28	28	28	154.0	157	59	17	142	73	68
Ricky Romero	L	28	30	30	187.3	143	84	21	183	98	92
Mark Buehrle	L	34	26	26	168.3	91	34	23	186	88	82
Brett Cecil	L	26	32	26	158.3	112	51	23	171	92	86
Casey Janssen	R	31	58	0	60.3	61	15	6	54	24	22
Buzz Oliver	L	42	52	0	44.7	39	13	4	42	18	17
Drew Hutchison	R	22	20	20	102.3	81	34	16	110	60	56
Esmil Rogers	R	27	67	0	80.0	79	31	9	79	41	38
J.A. Happ	L	30	25	23	130.7	109	58	20	137	80	75
Steve Delabar	R	29	60	0	63.3	84	25	12	53	31	29
Sergio Santos	R	29	35	0	34.0	41	14	3	29	14	13
Aaron Loup	L	25	72	0	75.3	52	18	7	81	39	36
Brandon Lyon	R	33	53	0	49.7	41	17	5	49	25	23
Luis Perez	L	28	35	0	42.3	39	16	4	40	20	19
Dustin McGowan	R	31	13	13	74.0	56	32	10	80	45	42
Brad Lincoln	R	28	39	17	117.3	88	31	21	133	74	69
Sam Dyson	R	25	40	6	71.3	29	24	7	84	43	40
Rich Thompson	R	28	42	0	51.7	43	24	7	52	29	27
Justin Germano	R	30	29	15	108.3	65	27	19	125	70	65
Chad Beck	R	28	58	0	59.7	28	21	6	68	34	32
Buddy Carlyle	R	35	30	1	55.7	38	20	8	62	33	31
Ronald Uviedo	R	26	48	0	66.0	52	29	9	71	40	37
Jeremy Jeffress	R	25	49	0	54.7	45	35	6	57	33	31
Kyle Drabek	R	25	22	21	114.0	72	68	17	127	77	72
Juan Perez	L	34	43	0	39.0	38	25	6	40	25	23
Claudio Vargas	R	35	18	9	56.0	33	23	9	67	39	36
Evan Crawford	L	26	43	0	45.3	31	22	6	51	29	27
Bobby Korecky	R	33	42	0	62.3	33	23	10	71	40	37
Jamie Moyer	L	50	12	11	65.0	36	19	14	81	48	45
Alex Hinshaw	L	30	46	0	44.7	42	35	7	47	32	30
Chad Jenkins	R	25	23	23	123.0	56	40	23	163	93	87
Chorye Spoone	R	27	33	11	83.3	41	66	11	105	67	63
Scott Richmond	R	33	21	20	98.7	58	45	23	123	80	75
Ramon Ortiz	R	40	26	20	116.3	57	40	25	149	92	86
Greg Smith	L	29	22	21	113.3	55	51	26	146	94	88

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
R.A. Dickey	194.3	823	18.0%	5.7%	.282	3.89	4.06	94	98
Josh Johnson	149.0	635	19.4%	7.1%	.287	3.68	3.55	89	86
Brandon Morrow	154.0	663	23.7%	8.9%	.296	3.97	3.78	96	91
Ricky Romero	187.3	829	17.3%	10.1%	.284	4.42	4.50	107	109
Mark Buehrle	168.3	725	12.6%	4.7%	.284	4.38	4.40	106	106
Brett Cecil	158.3	697	16.1%	7.3%	.293	4.89	4.63	118	112
Casey Janssen	60.3	250	24.4%	6.0%	.291	3.28	3.21	79	78
Buzz Oliver	44.7	189	20.6%	6.9%	.290	3.43	3.52	83	85
Drew Hutchison	102.3	451	18.0%	7.5%	.300	4.93	4.75	119	115
Esmil Rogers	80.0	350	22.6%	8.9%	.310	4.28	3.86	104	93
J.A. Happ	130.7	587	18.6%	9.9%	.295	5.17	4.79	125	116
Steve Delabar	63.3	268	31.4%	9.3%	.291	4.12	4.37	100	106
Sergio Santos	34.0	145	28.3%	9.7%	.306	3.44	3.07	83	74
Aaron Loup	75.3	325	16.0%	5.5%	.301	4.30	3.68	104	89
Brandon Lyon	49.7	215	19.1%	7.9%	.293	4.17	3.72	101	90
Luis Perez	42.3	183	21.3%	8.7%	.298	4.04	3.83	98	93
Dustin McGowan	74.0	334	16.8%	9.6%	.302	5.11	4.80	124	116
Brad Lincoln	117.3	516	17.1%	6.0%	.302	5.29	4.79	128	116
Sam Dyson	71.3	322	9.0%	7.5%	.299	5.05	4.74	122	115
Rich Thompson	51.7	231	18.6%	10.4%	.290	4.70	4.64	114	112
Justin Germano	108.3	477	13.6%	5.7%	.297	5.40	5.14	131	125
Chad Beck	59.7	268	10.4%	7.8%	.295	4.83	4.62	117	112
Buddy Carlyle	55.7	249	15.3%	8.0%	.300	5.01	4.78	121	116
Ronald Uviedo	66.0	298	17.4%	9.7%	.302	5.05	4.75	122	115
Jeremy Jeffress	54.7	256	17.6%	13.7%	.305	5.10	4.85	123	117
Kyle Drabek	114.0	537	13.4%	12.7%	.293	5.68	5.64	138	137
Juan Perez	39.0	182	20.9%	13.7%	.309	5.31	5.22	129	126
Claudio Vargas	56.0	258	12.8%	8.9%	.307	5.79	5.40	140	131
Evan Crawford	45.3	209	14.8%	10.5%	.306	5.36	5.04	130	122
Bobby Korecky	62.3	281	11.7%	8.2%	.289	5.34	5.42	129	131
Jamie Moyer	65.0	295	12.2%	6.4%	.300	6.23	5.76	151	139
Alex Hinshaw	44.7	216	19.4%	16.2%	.310	6.04	5.67	146	137
Chad Jenkins	123.0	572	9.8%	7.0%	.315	6.37	5.76	154	139
Chorye Spoone	83.3	421	9.7%	15.7%	.316	6.80	6.35	165	154
Scott Richmond	98.7	464	12.5%	9.7%	.301	6.84	6.50	166	157
Ramon Ortiz	116.3	538	10.6%	7.4%	.303	6.65	6.10	161	148
Greg Smith	113.3	537	10.2%	9.5%	.302	6.99	6.62	169	160

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	WAR	No. 1 Comp
R.A. Dickey	194.3	6.86	2.18	1.16	110	4.0	Woody Williams
Josh Johnson	149.0	7.43	2.72	0.85	116	3.4	Jason Schmidt
Brandon Morrow	154.0	9.18	3.45	0.99	107	3.0	Tim Belcher
Ricky Romero	187.3	6.87	4.04	1.01	96	2.6	Fernando Valenzuela
Mark Buehrle	168.3	4.87	1.82	1.23	97	2.5	Jim Kaat
Brett Cecil	158.3	6.37	2.90	1.31	87	1.3	Jason Jacome
Casey Janssen	60.3	9.10	2.24	0.90	130	1.2	Rafael Betancourt
Buzz Oliver	44.7	7.85	2.62	0.81	124	0.8	John Franco
Drew Hutchison	102.3	7.13	2.99	1.41	86	0.8	Chad Durbin
Esmil Rogers	80.0	8.89	3.49	1.01	100	0.7	Bert Roberge
J.A. Happ	130.7	7.51	3.99	1.38	82	0.6	Casey Fossum
Steve Delabar	63.3	11.94	3.55	1.71	103	0.6	Jorge Julio
Sergio Santos	34.0	10.85	3.71	0.79	124	0.6	Ryne Duren
Aaron Loup	75.3	6.22	2.15	0.84	99	0.6	Mark Peterson
Brandon Lyon	49.7	7.42	3.08	0.91	102	0.5	Bryan Corey
Luis Perez	42.3	8.30	3.40	0.85	105	0.5	Mike Stanton
Dustin McGowan	74.0	6.81	3.89	1.22	83	0.4	Kevin Foster
Brad Lincoln	117.3	6.75	2.38	1.61	80	0.2	Bruce Walton
Sam Dyson	71.3	3.66	3.03	0.88	84	0.2	Jack Cassel
Rich Thompson	51.7	7.49	4.18	1.22	91	0.2	Franklyn German
Justin Germano	108.3	5.40	2.24	1.58	79	0.1	Justin Miller
Chad Beck	59.7	4.22	3.17	0.90	88	0.1	Scott Rose
Buddy Carlyle	55.7	6.14	3.23	1.29	85	0.0	Ricky Barlow
Ronald Uviedo	66.0	7.09	3.95	1.23	84	-0.1	Anthony Chavez
Jeremy Jeffress	54.7	7.40	5.76	0.99	83	-0.1	Marc Pisciotta
Kyle Drabek	114.0	5.68	5.37	1.34	75	-0.2	Brett Laxton
Juan Perez	39.0	8.77	5.77	1.38	80	-0.2	Marshall Bridges
Claudio Vargas	56.0	5.30	3.70	1.45	74	-0.2	Alan Benes
Evan Crawford	45.3	6.16	4.37	1.19	79	-0.2	Joey Long
Bobby Korecky	62.3	4.77	3.32	1.44	80	-0.3	Brandon Puffer
Jamie Moyer	65.0	4.98	2.63	1.94	68	-0.5	Jerry Reuss
Alex Hinshaw	44.7	8.46	7.05	1.41	70	-0.6	Bill White
Chad Jenkins	123.0	4.10	2.93	1.68	67	-1.2	Cameron Reimers
Chorye Spoone	83.3	4.43	7.13	1.19	63	-1.4	Dallas Trahern
Scott Richmond	98.7	5.29	4.10	2.10	62	-1.5	Russ Ortiz
Ramon Ortiz	116.3	4.41	3.10	1.93	64	-1.6	Ed Riley
Greg Smith	113.3	4.37	4.05	2.07	61	-2.0	Dan Smith

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.09 ERA and the NL having a 3.92 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected WAR.