Allow me to state an obvious thing about the Nats-Cards NLDS, which is that it (i.e. the Series) is now tied at 1-1 after St. Louis’s 12-4 victory on Monday (box).

Allow me to state another (mostly) obvious thing, which is that the following predictions about the remainder of the Nats-Cards NLDS — while almost reasonable — are also almost certain to be wrong.

In any case, here they are — three almost reasonable predictions regarding the Nats and Cards:

Trevor Rosenthal Will Post the Cards’ Second-Highest gmLI Henceforth
Leverage Index (LI) is a measurement for how “critical” any given moment of a game is, where 1.00 is average and above 1.00 is “more critical.” So, for example, the most critical moment in Game Two on Monday — which featured a 2.08 LI (just over twice as important as a regular at-bat) — was when Jordan Zimmermann was batting in the second inning with Washington up 1-0 the game tied 0-0, runners on first and second, and one out. This represented the moment by which the game’s fate would be most significantly decided. By contrast, the game’s lowest LIs (zero, basically) occurred in the eighth and ninth innings, with St. Louis having established a considerable lead.

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Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. Assorted Headlines
2. Video: Colorado Shortstop Prospect Trevor Story
3. Today’s Playoff Schedule

Assorted Headlines
Arizona Fall League Begins Today
The Arizona Fall League — featuring many of baseball’s top prospects and giving us daily games at regular times, which certain, unnamed and anxiety-prone authors prefer — begins this afternoon. Among today’s notable starters: Seattle left-hander James Paxton (for Peoria) and Jarred Cosart (for Mesa), whom Houston received in the Hunter Pence trade with Philadelphia. Here’s where John Sickels ranks Cosart on the list noted below: 30th among pitching prospects. And here’s where he ranks Paxton: 25th.

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Episode 257
First, imagine FanGraphs managing editor Dave Cameron. Next, imagine all baseball. Now, imagine Dave Cameron analyzing all baseball. That’s precisely what follows in this episode of FanGraphs Audio.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

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Audio after the jump. (Approximately 34 min. play time.)

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It is known by the educated and handsome everywhere that Virgil’s Aeniad begins with the words “Arma virumque cano” — or, in English, “I sing of arms and the man.” After that part, much less is known — except that, at some point, a she-wolf saves a human child via suckling.

In any case, everyone knows that Virgil sang of arms and one man. What this post presupposes is: what if he sang of three men? And what if by arms he didn’t mean weaponry but actual arms on a person’s body? And what if Virgil knew that both baseball and the internet were things?

He would probably sing about three arms from the first game of the Nationals-Cardinals divisional series, is what.

Adam Wainwright’s Arm
Adam Wainwright’s arm was excellent on Sunday. How excellent? Here’s one answer: until walking Kurt Suzuki with two outs in the sixth — which would prove, actually, to be his 26th and final batter of the game — Wainwright had posted the lowest single-game FIP- of any start ever of his career (around 17, I think it was). As it is, Wainwright’s 10-strikeout performance againt the Nationals still qualifies as one of the best starts of his entire career.

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Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. Custom Leaderboard: All the Minor-League Free Agents So Far
2. Video: Angel Sanchez, Defensively
3. Today’s Playoff Schedule

Custom Leaderboard: All the Minor-League Free Agents So Far
What Happened About a Month Ago
Just a little less than a month, Dave Cameron presented to the readership — with the assistance of Brandon Warne — presented a custom leaderboard featuring the players most likely to become free agents this offseason.

What’s Happening Right Now
What’s happening right now is the present author is announcing the creation of a custom leaderboard that he himself has made featuring 29 minor-league players who just declared free agency.

The Two Aforementioned Leaderboards, A Similarity
The similarity between the list below and the one presented by Cameron last month is that they both utilize FanGraphs Custom Leaderboard Technology™.

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The author, because he’s an idiot, mistakenly wrote this preview for the Yankees-Orioles series despite having definitely been assigned the Nationals-Cardinals NLDS, instead, by his fearless editor Dave Cameron. Interested readers can expect full coverage of the Nationals and Cardinals beginning tomorrow (Monday).

If you’ve made your way to FanGraphs — and if, furthermore, our demographic data is even half accurate — you’re the sort of person who either (a) has done well in school or (b) is currently doing well in school. Which, that means you’re probably also the sort of person who (a) has taken a number of quizzes before and also (b) has done well on those same quizzes — and maybe even (c) actively enjoys taking quizzes.

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Episode 256
Marc Hulet, author of the site’s organizational top-15 prospect lists and assorted other minor-league coverage, discusses this year’s forthcoming Arizona Fall League, both (a) reviewing the 2012 minor-leagues seasons from three of the AFL’s top performers in 2011 (i.e. Houston’s Robbie Grossman, Oakland’s Michael Choice, and Milwaukee’s Miguel De Los Santos), and also (b) previewing three notable AFL-bound players (Oakland corner infielder Miles Head, Boston outfielder Bryce Brentz, and very athletic Toronto center-field prospect Jake Marisnick).

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 42 min. play time.)

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Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. Assorted Headlines
2. Today’s Games
3. Unnecessary Video: Longest Home Run of 2012

Assorted Headlines
Featuring, at the very least, 140%-150% of news that’s fit to print.

Cubs Fans Gross, Cardinals Fans Not
Urine Feces Everywhere (UFE), some manner of independent agency situation, has assessed all 30 major-league stadiums on cleanliness “using over 79 different criteria,” according to their site. What one learns: Wrigley Stadium was the dirtiest park in the majors (mostly owing to a lack of handwashing among men) and Busch was the cleanest. There are probably some interesting questions raised here about design or event management for people who enjoy asking questions along those lines.

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Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. A Brief Note Regarding the Regular Season
2. Summary: Shelby Miller’s First MLB Start
3. Forthcoming Games

A Brief Note
It might have occurred to the reader — as it did to the author, last night, as he started writing these very same Notes — that the 2012 regular season is now over. There is really nothing to recommend this state of affairs.

Brief Summary: Shelby Miller’s First MLB Start
What Happened Last Night
Last night, top Cardinals prospect Shelby Miller (after five September relief appearances) made his first major-league start — and did so in front of the straight-on Cardinals center-field camera.

Miller’s Line
Miller was entirely proficient in his starting debut. To wit: 6.0 IP, 21 TBF, 7 K, 2 BB, 3 GB on 11 batted-balls (27.3% GB), 3.97 xFIP. Also, he and the Cardinal defense allowed just a single hit — albeit, not against what the most imposing version of the Cincinnanti offense. Miller threw 52 of 72 pitches (72.2%) for strikes. (League average for starters is ca. 63%, with a standard deviation of ca. 2.5%.)

A Note on Miller’s Fastball
As he did in his real-live major-league debut — and has done in his appearances since — Miller generated a number of swing-and-misses on his fastball. Per Texas Leaguers, Miller got whiffs on eight of his 51 total four-seam fastballs, or about 16%. The league-average whiff rate on fastballs is about 6%. Miller’s swinging-strike on fastballs is currently at 13.0%.

Most Overpowering Fastball
Here’s footage of Miller’s hardest fastball (93.7 mph) that was also a swinging-strike — to Drew Stubbs in the fifth inning:

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Episode 255
This edition of a FanGraphs Audio represents an experiment — namely, a simulcast experiment with Baseball Prospectus’s own podcast, Effectively Wild, hosted by Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 55 min. play time.)

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